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CONN

UConn 21 at Duke 26

DUKE
2024 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2024 · Wallace Wade Stadium
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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadCONN aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreCONN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:17 · Connor Stutz punt for 41 yds , Jordan Moore returns for 8 yds to the DUKE 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTimeout advantage
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 21Pregame prior+34.0Home team on offense+1.4Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Timeout advantage+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:27: Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eli Pancol for 36 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +5.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:47: Maalik Murphy pass intercepted Langston Hardy return for 64 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK) — CONN win probability +6.2 pts (now 13%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:46: Cam Edwards run for 1 yd for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK) — CONN win probability +9.4 pts (now 25%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q3 8:21: Nick Evers pass complete to Alexander Honig for 13 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK) — CONN win probability +13.8 pts (now 41%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:49: Maalik Murphy pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 20 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — DUKE win probability +7.6 pts (now 65%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 7 of 10CONN made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 13:13CONN 4th & 6 at DUKE 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:17CONN 4th & 3 at CONN 36, down 7
    Close callPunted · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:28DUKE 4th & 7 at DUKE 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.4%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:54CONN 4th & 6 at CONN 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:36DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:10DUKE 4th & 6 at CONN 35, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.4%−0.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    84.1%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:25CONN 4th & 8 at CONN 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:01CONN 4th & 7 at CONN 39, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.0%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:11DUKE 4th & 1 at DUKE 45, up 10
    Close callPunted · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.1%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:12CONN 4th & 7 at CONN 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:11DUKE 4th & 8 at DUKE 27, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%−0.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:42DUKE 4th & 1 at DUKE 19, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 75.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.5%−2.0
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:25DUKE 4th & 10 at CONN 41, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    58.2%−0.8
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:44CONN 4th & 10 at CONN 6, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%−3.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:02DUKE 4th & 1 at CONN 24, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    52.7%−3.4
    68% to make
    Punt
    43.1%−12.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:56DUKE 4th & 18 at CONN 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%−4.3
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.1%
    56% to make
    Punt
    47.2%−2.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:40CONN 4th & 8 at CONN 43, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:21DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 12, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%−2.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.5%
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:42CONN 4th & 7 at DUKE 30, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.1%
    56% to make
    Punt
    17.0%−5.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 3CONN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:34DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:27DUKE Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:47CONN Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:46CONN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:21CONN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:49DUKE Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    77.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    77.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CONNDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 27 yds · 1:4612% → 12%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
88.3%
Nick Evers run for 23 yds to the CONN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
88.2%
Nick Evers pass complete to Brett Buckman for 6 yds to the DUKE 46Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+1
88.0%
Cam Edwards run for 1 yd to the DUKE 45Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 3
OPP 45
-3
87.9%
Nick Evers pass complete to TJ Sheffield for a loss of 3 yards to the DUKE 48Similar
Q1 13:13
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
87.8%
Connor Stutz punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2TD
9 plays · 92 yds · 3:3188% → 88%
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
87.8%
Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the DUKE 10Similar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+45
87.6%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jordan Moore for 45 yds to the CONN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
87.7%
Star Thomas run for 4 yds to the CONN 41Similar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+1
87.6%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Javon Harvey for 1 yd to the CONN 40Similar
Q1 11:19
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+5
87.4%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jontavis Robertson for 5 yds to the CONN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
87.4%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jontavis Robertson for 4 yds to the CONN 31Similar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+20
87.3%
Peyton Jones run for 20 yds to the CONN 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
87.2%
Peyton Jones run for 7 yds to the CONN 4Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 3
OPP 4
+4
88.0%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jordan Moore for 4 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 3:1012% → 13%
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
87.6%
Cam Edwards run for a loss of 2 yards to the CONN 14Similar
Q1 8:52
2ND & 12
OWN 14
+15
87.5%
Nick Evers pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 15 yds to the CONN 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
87.4%
Cam Edwards run for 7 yds to the CONN 36Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 3
OWN 36
-10
87.2%
(07:55) EVERS, Nick scrambles to the left for a gain of 1 yard to the UCO37, out of bounds, clock 07:50. PENALTY UCO Holding on HANSEN, Louis enforced 10 yards from the UCO36 to the UCO26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 13
OWN 26
+11
87.4%
Cam Edwards run for 11 yds to the CONN 37Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 2
OWN 37
-1
87.1%
Mel Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the CONN 36Similar
Q1 6:17
4TH & 3
OWN 36
+8
87.2%
Connor Stutz punt for 41 yds , Jordan Moore returns for 8 yds to the DUKE 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:4087% → 87%
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
87.3%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 11 yds to the DUKE 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
87.5%
Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the DUKE 44Similar
Q1 5:17
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+6
87.5%
Star Thomas run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:53
3RD & 2
50
-5
87.3%
Duke Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the DUKE 45Similar
Q1 4:34
3RD & 7
OWN 45
0
87.2%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:28
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
86.9%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 53 yds, downed at the CONN 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 5PUNT
12 plays · 41 yds · 4:2313% → 14%
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
86.9%
Cam Edwards run for 2 yds to the CONN 4Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+4
86.9%
Cam Edwards run for 4 yds to the CONN 8Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 4
OWN 8
+7
87.1%
Nick Evers pass complete to Skyler Bell for 7 yds to the CONN 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
86.5%
Cam Edwards run for 5 yds to the CONN 20Similar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 5
OWN 20
0
86.4%
Nick Evers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:54
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+5
86.6%
Nick Evers pass complete to Louis Hansen for 5 yds to the CONN 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.3%
Nick Evers run for no gain to the CONN 25Similar
Q1 0:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
86.2%
Cam Edwards run for 14 yds to the CONN 39 Cam Edwards fumbled, recovered by CONN Louis Hansen L. Hansen return for 0 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
85.7%
Cam Edwards run for 4 yds to the CONN 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 43
0
85.4%
Joe Fagnano pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 6
OWN 43
0
85.8%
Nick Evers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
86.1%
Connor Stutz punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Star Thomas at the DUKE 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0986% → 86%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
86.2%
Peyton Jones run for no gain to the DUKE 7Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 7
0
86.0%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:03
3RD & 10
OWN 7
+4
85.7%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eli Pancol for 4 yds to the DUKE 11Similar
Q2 13:36
4TH & 6
OWN 11
0
85.8%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 47 yds, fair catch by TJ Sheffield at the CONN 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 7FUMBLE
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:3814% → 14%
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
85.8%
Nick Evers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
85.9%
Mel Brown run for 3 yds to the CONN 45Similar
Q2 12:53
3RD & 7
OWN 45
-6
85.8%
Nick Evers run for a loss of 6 yards to the CONN 39 Nick Evers fumbled, recovered by DUKE Tre Freeman T. Freeman return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:3887% → 87%
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
87.0%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
87.0%
Star Thomas run for 4 yds to the CONN 35Similar
Q2 12:17
3RD & 6
OPP 35
0
86.8%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:10
4TH & 6
OPP 35
+53
86.8%
Todd Pelino 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4313% → 13%
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
87.0%
Mel Brown run for 2 yds to the CONN 27Similar
Q2 11:33
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
86.7%
Nick Evers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
87.0%
Nick Evers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:25
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+4
87.2%
Connor Stutz punt for 47 yds , Que'Sean Brown returns for 4 yds to the DUKE 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 2:4887% → 93%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
87.0%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+1
86.9%
Peyton Jones run for 1 yd to the DUKE 31Similar
Q2 10:32
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+20
86.6%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jordan Moore for 20 yds to the CONN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+22
87.4%
Star Thomas run for 22 yds to the CONN 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-10
87.7%
(09:28) THOMAS, Star rush to the left for a gain of 5 yards to the UCO22 (GOURDINE, Dal'Mont;FAUMUINA-BROWN, Tui), clock 09:24. PENALTY DU Holding on KRINGS, Caleb enforced 10 yards from the UCO27 to the UCO37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 20
OPP 37
+1
87.2%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Quran Boyd for 1 yd to the CONN 36Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 19
OPP 36
+36
93.0%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eli Pancol for 36 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 2:249% → 9%
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
91.4%
Nick Evers pass complete to Skyler Bell for 1 yd to the CONN 26Similar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
91.1%
Cam Edwards run for 6 yds to the CONN 32Similar
Q2 7:12
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
91.0%
Nick Evers pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 4 yds to the CONN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
90.7%
Nick Evers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-5
90.8%
UConn Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CONN 31Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 15
OWN 31
0
91.1%
Nick Evers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:42
3RD & 15
OWN 31
+8
91.3%
Durell Robinson run for 8 yds to the CONN 39Similar
Q2 6:01
4TH & 7
OWN 39
+23
91.3%
punt for 54 yds , Que'Sean Brown returns for 23 yds to the DUKE 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12INT TD
6 plays · 39 yds · 2:0593% → 87%
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
92.5%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 8 yds to the DUKE 38Similar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+5
92.8%
UConn Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jayden McDonald) to the DUKE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
92.8%
Star Thomas run for 8 yds to the CONN 49Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+11
93.0%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 11 yds to the CONN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
93.0%
Star Thomas run for 7 yds to the CONN 31Similar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 3
OPP 31
-64
86.8%
Maalik Murphy pass intercepted Langston Hardy return for 64 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13PUNT
11 plays · 20 yds · 2:3585% → 89%
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
85.4%
Star Thomas run for 6 yds to the DUKE 31Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
86.0%
Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the DUKE 33Similar
Q2 2:48
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-2
85.8%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jordan Moore for a loss of 2 yards to the DUKE 31Similar
Q2 2:44
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+5
85.2%
UConn Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the DUKE 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
86.3%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 4 yds Sahmir Hagans fumbled, recovered by DUKESimilar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+5
86.7%
Star Thomas run for 5 yds to the DUKE 45Similar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
87.8%
Star Thomas run for no gain to the DUKE 45Similar
Q2 1:11
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
89.4%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by TJ Sheffield at the CONN 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:5213% → 12%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
87.1%
Cam Edwards run for 5 yds to the CONN 20Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+12
87.2%
Cam Edwards run for 12 yds to the CONN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
86.7%
Nick Evers pass complete to Skyler Bell for 6 yds to the CONN 38Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 4
OWN 38
0
85.7%
Nick Evers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 4
OWN 38
-3
86.3%
Cam Edwards run for a loss of 3 yards to the CONN 35Similar
Q2 0:12
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
88.5%
Connor Stutz punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Que'Sean Brown at the DUKE 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
88.4%
(00:07) [NH] Kneel down by DU at DU24 (team loss of 2), clock 00:02.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4787% → 86%
Q3 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.0%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
86.9%
Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the DUKE 27Similar
Q3 14:19
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
86.3%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:11
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+10
85.8%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 47 yds , TJ Sheffield returns for 10 yds to the CONN 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 17TD
8 plays · 64 yds · 2:1914% → 25%
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+21
85.6%
Nick Evers run for 21 yds to the DUKE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
85.7%
Cam Edwards run for 1 yd to the DUKE 42Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+4
85.6%
Nick Evers pass complete to Skyler Bell for 4 yds to the DUKE 38Similar
Q3 12:49
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+22
85.9%
Nick Evers pass complete to Skyler Bell for 22 yds to the DUKE 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
84.6%
Nick Evers pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 11 yds to the DUKE 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
84.6%
Joe Fagnano pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
84.6%
Nick Evers run for 4 yds to the DUKE 1Similar
Q3 11:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
75.2%
Cam Edwards run for 1 yd for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:5878% → 77%
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
78.4%
Star Thomas run for 6 yds to the DUKE 16Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+3
78.2%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 3 yds to the DUKE 19Similar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 1
OWN 19
0
77.3%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:42
4TH & 1
OWN 19
0
76.6%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 56 yds, fair catch by TJ Sheffield at the CONN 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 19TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:1423% → 41%
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
77.5%
Nick Evers run for 4 yds to the CONN 29Similar
Q3 10:04
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+28
76.8%
Cam Edwards run for 13 yds to the DUKE 42 for a 1ST down Duke Penalty, Personal Foul (Terry Moore) to the DUKE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+26
74.4%
Nick Evers pass complete to Cam Edwards for 26 yds to the DUKE 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
72.7%
Durell Robinson run for 4 yds to the DUKE 13Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+13
59.0%
Nick Evers pass complete to Alexander Honig for 13 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 20PUNT
11 plays · 34 yds · 2:5464% → 60%
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
64.0%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jontavis Robertson for 5 yds to the DUKE 30Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
64.3%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 4 yds to the DUKE 34Similar
Q3 7:34
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
63.3%
Peyton Jones run for 5 yds to the DUKE 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
63.5%
Peyton Jones run for 3 yds to the DUKE 42Similar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+2
64.7%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 2 yds to the DUKE 44Similar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+15
63.1%
(06:15) MURPHY, Maalik pass deep to the right incomplete intended for MOORE, Jordan thrown to the UCO25, clock 06:12. PENALTY UCO Pass Interference on BRINSON, D'Mon enforced 15 yards to the UCO41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
65.5%
Star Thomas run for no gain to the CONN 41Similar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
65.0%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:31
3RD & 10
OPP 41
0
63.6%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:25
4TH & 10
OPP 41
0
60.0%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 35 yds, fair catch by TJ Sheffield at the CONN 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:3642% → 43%
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
58.5%
Cam Edwards run for 2 yds to the CONN 8Similar
Q3 5:01
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+2
58.2%
Cam Edwards run for 2 yds to the CONN 10Similar
Q3 4:24
3RD & 6
OWN 10
-4
56.3%
Nick Evers sacked by Vincent Anthony Jr. and Alex Howard for a loss of 4 yards to the CONN 6Similar
Q3 3:44
4TH & 10
OWN 6
+12
57.3%
Connor Stutz punt for 49 yds , Que'Sean Brown returns for 12 yds to the CONN 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 22FG
11 plays · 13 yds · 3:4161% → 59%
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
61.2%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 8 yds to the CONN 35Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+2
62.5%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 2 yds to the CONN 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
62.2%
Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the CONN 30Similar
Q3 2:26
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
61.8%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:21
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+6
59.5%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jordan Moore for 6 yds to the CONN 24Similar
Q3 2:02
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+2
57.2%
Peyton Jones run for 2 yds to the CONN 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
60.9%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 5 yds to the CONN 17Similar
Q3 0:49
2ND & 5
OPP 17
-2
58.5%
Peyton Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the CONN 19Similar
Q3 0:17
3RD & 7
OPP 19
-11
55.7%
Maalik Murphy sacked by Jayden McDonald and Dal'Mont Gourdine for a loss of 11 yards to the CONN 30Similar
Q4 14:56
4TH & 18
OPP 30
+47
58.6%
Todd Pelino 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 23INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:4442% → 42%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
57.9%
Nick Evers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
58.4%
Nick Evers run for 2 yds to the CONN 27Similar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
58.0%
Nick Evers pass intercepted Terry Moore return for no gain to the DUKE 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 24TD
8 plays · 56 yds · 2:1558% → 65%
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+24
58.1%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Star Thomas for 24 yds to the CONN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
60.4%
Star Thomas run for 9 yds to the CONN 23Similar
Q4 13:18
2ND & 1
OPP 23
0
60.0%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:13
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+2
55.8%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 2 yds to the CONN 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
57.4%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the CONN 20Similar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 9
OPP 20
0
56.9%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:49
3RD & 9
OPP 20
+20
64.5%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 20 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:0727% → 28%
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
72.8%
Cam Edwards run for 3 yds to the CONN 28Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+13
72.3%
Nick Evers run for 13 yds to the CONN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
69.7%
Cam Edwards run for 2 yds to the CONN 43Similar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
68.0%
Nick Evers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:47
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
69.6%
Nick Evers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:40
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
71.9%
Connor Stutz punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Que'Sean Brown at the DUKE 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1460% → 58%
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
60.0%
Star Thomas run for 4 yds to the DUKE 11Similar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+1
58.5%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the DUKE 12Similar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 5
OWN 12
0
57.2%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:21
4TH & 5
OWN 12
0
57.6%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 42 yds , TJ Sheffield returns for no gain to the CONN 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 27MISSED FG
8 plays · 34 yds · 2:3529% → 30%
Q4 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
70.6%
Nick Evers pass complete to Skyler Bell for no gain to the CONN 36Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-3
71.3%
Mel Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the CONN 33Similar
Q4 7:18
3RD & 13
OWN 33
+18
74.3%
Nick Evers pass complete to Skyler Bell for 18 yds to the DUKE 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+16
67.2%
Cam Edwards run for 16 yds to the DUKE 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
65.0%
Nick Evers run for 3 yds to the DUKE 30Similar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
64.5%
Nick Evers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:48
3RD & 7
OPP 30
0
67.8%
Nick Evers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:42
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+48
70.3%
Chris Freeman 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 28END OF GAME
16 plays · 59 yds · 5:2765% → 95%
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
65.1%
Peyton Jones run for 4 yds to the DUKE 34Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+7
66.5%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eli Pancol for 7 yds to the DUKE 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
65.2%
Peyton Jones run for 3 yds to the DUKE 44Similar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
74.5%
Peyton Jones run for no gain to the DUKE 44Similar
Q4 2:54
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+13
76.9%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 13 yds to the CONN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-3
87.4%
Peyton Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the CONN 46Similar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 13
OPP 46
+14
87.5%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eli Pancol for 14 yds to the CONN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
89.3%
Star Thomas run for 7 yds to the CONN 25Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+21
94.1%
Star Thomas run for 21 yds to the CONN 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-3
93.7%
(01:28) [NH] Kneel down by DU at UCO7 (team loss of 3), clock 01:24.Similar
Q4 0:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
94.3%
(00:47) [NH] Kneel down by DU at UCO9 (team loss of 2), clock 00:43.Similar
Q4 0:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
94.9%
(00:11) [NH] Kneel down by DU at UCO11 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:21
Nick Evers pass complete to Alexander Honig for 13 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)
-13.8
TD · Q3 11:46
Cam Edwards run for 1 yd for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)
-9.4
TD · Q4 11:49
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 20 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+7.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com