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Notre Dame 51 at Navy 14

NAVY
2024 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2024 · MetLife Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFUMBLETDEnd of GameTD+6.9NAVY 12.0%Eli Heidenreich run for 1 yd for a TD(Nathan Kirkwood KICK)AWAY 31 - HOME 14 · Q3 8:44
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:44 · Eli Heidenreich run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+59.0+29.50−29.5−59.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 100Home team on offense−17.7Pregame prior−17.4Score differential−10.1Garbage-time factor−6.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:33: Blake Horvath run for 47 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK) — NAVY win probability +3.8 pts (now 20%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:28: Jeremiyah Love run for 64 yds for a TD (Zac Yoakam KICK) — ND win probability +3.8 pts (now 86%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:05: Jeremiyah Love run for 2 yds for a TD (Zac Yoakam KICK) — ND win probability +6.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:44: Eli Heidenreich run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK) — NAVY win probability +6.9 pts (now 12%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:35: Riley Leonard pass complete to Beaux Collins for 37 yds for a TD (Zac Yoakam KICK) — ND win probability +5.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ND made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 0:51ND 4th & 12 at NAVY 18, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.7%−0.9
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.6%
    79% to make
    Punt
    77.2%−3.4
    average punt
  2. Q2 10:56NAVY 4th & 8 at NAVY 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.1%
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:02ND 4th & 9 at ND 21, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%−1.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:55ND 4th & 7 at NAVY 37, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    82.1%−0.4
    40% to make
    Punt
    81.9%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:46NAVY 4th & 15 at ND 23, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−0.6
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.2%
    70% to make
    Punt
    9.8%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:26ND 4th & 5 at NAVY 14, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.0%
    84% to make
    Punt
    90.0%−1.9
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:44NAVY 4th & 1 at ND 1, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    2.9%−2.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    -3.1%−8.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 0:52NAVY 4th & 1 at ND 36, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%−0.5
    42% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:44NAVY 4th & 7 at ND 17, down 30
    Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%
    80% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:20ND 4th & 6 at ND 34, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:20NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 32, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ND made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 10:28ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:44ND Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:33NAVY Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:28ND Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:05ND Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:44NAVY Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:35ND Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:08ND Touchdown, up 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:1786% → 85%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
14.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 4 yds to the ND 29Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+13
14.7%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 13 yds to the ND 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
14.9%
Jeremiyah Love run for 5 yds to the ND 47Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 5
OWN 47
-1
15.1%
Jeremiyah Love run for a loss of 1 yard to the ND 46Similar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+42
15.4%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 42 yds to the NAVY 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
15.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Beaux Collins for 5 yds to the NAVY 7Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+3
15.8%
Jeremiyah Love run for 3 yds to the NAVY 4Similar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+3
16.2%
Jeremiyah Love run for 3 yds to the NAVY 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
15.3%
Riley Leonard run for 1 yd for a TD (Zac Yoakam KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2FUMBLE
7 plays · 24 yds · 3:1716% → 17%
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
15.7%
Blake Horvath run for 3 yds to the NAVY 14Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+3
15.9%
Eli Heidenreich run for 3 yds to the NAVY 17Similar
Q1 9:05
3RD & 4
OWN 17
+7
15.9%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Nathan Kent for 7 yds to the NAVY 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
16.2%
Alex Tecza run for 3 yds to the NAVY 27Similar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+7
16.4%
Alex Tecza run for 7 yds to the NAVY 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+28
16.6%
Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the NAVY 35 Alex Tecza fumbled, recovered by ND Adon Shuler , return for 28 yds to the NAVY 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3TD
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1084% → 86%
Q1 6:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
15.9%
Jadarian Price run for 4 yds to the NAVY 3Similar
Q1 6:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
16.1%
Jadarian Price run for 2 yds to the NAVY 1Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 0
OPP 1
-5
16.1%
Notre Dame Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NAVY 6Similar
Q1 5:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
14.4%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 6 yds for a TD (Zac Yoakam KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4FUMBLE
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:2715% → 16%
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+32
15.2%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Alex Tecza for 32 yds to the ND 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
15.7%
Alex Tecza run for 4 yds to the ND 39Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 6
OPP 39
-15
15.9%
Heidenreich, Eli rush for 7 yards to the NOTREDAME32, PENALTY NAVY illegal block 15 yards to the NAVY46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 21
OWN 46
-2
15.6%
Blake Horvath run for a loss of 2 yards to the NAVY 44 Blake Horvath fumbled, recovered by ND Junior TuihalamakaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5MISSED FG
8 plays · 26 yds · 3:0986% → 85%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
14.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for a loss of 2 yards to the NAVY 46Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+17
14.5%
Riley Leonard run for 17 yds to the NAVY 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
14.4%
Riley Leonard run for 8 yds to the NAVY 21Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+5
14.4%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 5 yds to the NAVY 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
14.3%
Jeremiyah Love run for 3 yds to the NAVY 13Similar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 7
OPP 13
0
14.3%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jayden ThomasSimilar
Q1 1:26
3RD & 7
OPP 13
-5
14.4%
Riley Leonard sacked by Justin Reed and Luke Pirris for a loss of 5 yards to the NAVY 18Similar
Q1 0:51
4TH & 12
OPP 18
+36
14.8%
Zac Yoakam 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:1215% → 20%
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
15.1%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 6 yds to the NAVY 26Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+5
15.4%
Blake Horvath run for 5 yds to the NAVY 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
15.3%
Alex Tecza run for 3 yds to the NAVY 34Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+15
15.6%
Horvath, Blake pass incomplete to Kent, Nathan, PENALTY NOTREDAME pass interference (Gray, Christian) 15 yards to the NAVY49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NAVY.Similar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
16.1%
Alex Tecza run for 4 yds to the ND 47Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+47
19.9%
Blake Horvath run for 47 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:5782% → 86%
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
18.4%
Riley Leonard run for 7 yds to the ND 32Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
18.1%
Jeremiyah Love run for 4 yds to the ND 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
14.3%
Jeremiyah Love run for 64 yds for a TD (Zac Yoakam KICK)Similar
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
14.4%
Goins, Eric kickoff 62 yards to the NAVY3, Bryant, Isaiah return 17 yards to the NAVY20, PENALTY NOTREDAME offside 5 yards to the NOTREDAME30, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:1915% → 15%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
15.3%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Luke Hutchison for 11 yds to the NAVY 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
15.5%
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the NAVY 48Similar
Q2 11:09
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
15.6%
Blake Horvath pass incomplete to Alex TeczaSimilar
Q2 11:04
3RD & 8
OWN 48
0
15.5%
Blake Horvath pass incomplete to Nathan KentSimilar
Q2 10:56
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
15.2%
Riley Riethman punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4986% → 85%
Q2 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
14.3%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jordan FaisonSimilar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
14.4%
Jadarian Price run for 1 yd to the ND 21Similar
Q2 10:11
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
14.6%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jaden GreathouseSimilar
Q2 10:02
4TH & 9
OWN 21
+2
14.9%
James Rendell punt for 41 yds , Isaiah Bryant returns for 2 yds to the NAVY 40 Isaiah Bryant fumbled, recovered by ND Jack KiserSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 10TD
11 plays · 40 yds · 4:4087% → 93%
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
13.5%
Leonard, Riley pass complete to Faison, Jordan for 23 yards to the NAVY17, PENALTY NOTREDAME holding (Wagner, Aamil) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:23
1ST & 20
50
+5
13.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Faison for 5 yds to the NAVY 45Similar
Q2 8:53
2ND & 15
OPP 45
0
13.6%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jaden GreathouseSimilar
Q2 8:41
3RD & 15
OPP 45
+8
13.8%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Aneyas Williams for 8 yds to the NAVY 37Similar
Q2 7:55
4TH & 7
OPP 37
+17
14.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Faison for 17 yds to the NAVY 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
13.5%
Riley Leonard run for 5 yds to the NAVY 15Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+4
13.4%
Aneyas Williams run for 4 yds to the NAVY 11Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+2
13.7%
Jeremiyah Love run for 2 yds to the NAVY 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
13.4%
Jeremiyah Love run for 7 yds to the NAVY 2Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
6.9%
Jeremiyah Love run for 2 yds for a TD (Zac Yoakam KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11MISSED FG
9 plays · 65 yds · 3:1410% → 9%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+60
9.5%
Blake Horvath run for 60 yds to the ND 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
10.8%
Blake Horvath pass incomplete to Nathan KentSimilar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+4
10.6%
Alex Tecza run for 4 yds to the ND 24Similar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+6
10.5%
Blake Horvath run for 6 yds to the ND 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-4
10.5%
Alex Tecza run for a loss of 4 yards to the ND 22 Alex Tecza fumbled, recovered by NAVY Alex TeczaSimilar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 14
OPP 22
-1
10.2%
Eli Heidenreich run for a loss of 1 yard to the ND 23Similar
Q2 1:51
3RD & 15
OPP 23
0
9.6%
Blake Horvath pass incomplete to Eli HeidenreichSimilar
Q2 1:46
4TH & 15
OPP 23
+40
9.4%
Nathan Kirkwood 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 12FG
10 plays · 63 yds · 1:1394% → 94%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+26
6.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Faison for 26 yds to the ND 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
5.8%
Jadarian Price run for 5 yds to the NAVY 46Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+15
5.6%
Riley Leonard run for 15 yds to the NAVY 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
5.6%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Kris MitchellSimilar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+12
5.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 12 yds to the NAVY 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
5.6%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Kris MitchellSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+5
5.9%
Riley Leonard run for 5 yds to the NAVY 14Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 5
OPP 14
0
5.5%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:26
4TH & 5
OPP 14
+32
5.8%
Zac Yoakam 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
8.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NAVY 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:118% → 10%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
7.7%
Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the NAVY 26Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
7.5%
Eli Heidenreich run for 7 yds to the NAVY 33Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
7.9%
Alex Tecza run for 3 yds to the NAVY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+21
7.7%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 21 yds to the ND 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
6.5%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 4 yds to the ND 39Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+17
6.5%
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the ND 37 for a 1ST down Notre Dame Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the ND 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
6.7%
Blake Horvath run for 4 yds to the ND 18Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+12
6.4%
Eli Heidenreich run for 12 yds to the ND 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
5.8%
Eli Heidenreich run for 3 yds to the ND 3Similar
Q3 9:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
5.2%
Luke Hutchison pass incomplete to Blake HorvathSimilar
Q3 9:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
5.1%
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the ND 1Similar
Q3 8:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
12.0%
Eli Heidenreich run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
Q3 8:44
4TH & 5
OWN 35
-5
10.6%
Gossett, Lance kickoff 56 yards to the NOTREDAME9, Harrison, Jayden return 16 yards to the NOTREDAME25, PENALTY NAVY offside 5 yards to the NAVY30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:44
4TH & 10
OWN 30
-5
10.4%
Navy Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the NAVY 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5090% → 97%
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
9.8%
Jeremiyah Love run for 7 yds to the ND 32Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
9.4%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Eli RaridonSimilar
Q3 7:50
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-5
9.7%
Leonard, Riley pass complete to Greathouse, Jaden for 5 yards to the NOTREDAME37, PENALTY NOTREDAME illegal formation 5 yards to the NOTREDAME27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:26
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+24
9.7%
Riley Leonard run for 24 yds to the NAVY 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
8.7%
Aneyas Williams run for 3 yds to the NAVY 46Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+6
8.4%
Riley Leonard run for 6 yds to the NAVY 40Similar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+3
8.2%
Jeremiyah Love run for 3 yds to the NAVY 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
2.7%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Beaux Collins for 37 yds for a TD (Zac Yoakam KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16FUMBLE TD
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:123% → 1%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+6
3.4%
Eli Heidenreich run for 6 yds to the NAVY 10Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 4
OWN 10
-1
3.4%
Blake Horvath run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 9Similar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 5
OWN 9
0
1.1%
Blake Horvath run for a loss of 8 yards Blake Horvath fumbled, recovered by ND Jaylen Sneed for a TD (Eric Goins PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17INT
16 plays · 58 yds · 7:261% → 0%
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
1.1%
Horvath, Blake pass incomplete, PENALTY NOTREDAME roughing passer (Viliamu-Asa, Kyngstonn) 15 yards to the NAVY40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NAVY.Similar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
1.1%
Blake Horvath run for 9 yds to the NAVY 49Similar
Q3 3:29
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+6
1.1%
Alex Tecza run for 6 yds to the ND 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
1.1%
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the ND 43Similar
Q3 2:06
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+1
1.0%
Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the ND 42Similar
Q3 1:35
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+6
1.0%
Eli Heidenreich run for 6 yds to the ND 36Similar
Q3 0:52
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+4
1.0%
Eli Heidenreich run for 4 yds to the ND 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
1.2%
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the ND 30Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+3
0.7%
Eli Heidenreich run for 3 yds to the ND 27Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+7
0.6%
Eli Heidenreich run for 7 yds to the ND 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
0.6%
Blake Horvath pass incomplete to Brandon ChatmanSimilar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+1
0.6%
Blake Horvath run for 1 yd to the ND 19Similar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+7
0.5%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Alex Tecza for 7 yds to the ND 12Similar
Q4 12:13
4TH & 2
OPP 12
-5
0.4%
Navy Penalty, False Start (Nathan Kent) to the ND 17Similar
Q4 11:44
4TH & 7
OPP 17
0
0.4%
Blake Horvath pass intercepted, touchback. Leonard Moore return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:16100% → 100%
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
0.5%
Steve Angeli pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:21
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+10
0.4%
Angeli, Steve pass sacked for loss of 9 yards to the NOTREDAME11 (Ramos, Colin), PENALTY NAVY holding 10 yards to the NOTREDAME30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
0.4%
Jadarian Price run for 7 yds to the ND 37Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 3
OWN 37
-5
0.4%
Price, Jadarian rush for 1 yard to the NOTREDAME38, PENALTY NOTREDAME illegal shift 5 yards to the NOTREDAME32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+2
0.4%
Aneyas Williams run for 2 yds to the ND 34Similar
Q4 9:34
3RD & 6
OWN 34
0
0.4%
Steve Angeli pass incomplete to Jayden HarrisonSimilar
Q4 9:20
4TH & 6
OWN 34
+49
0.4%
James Rendell punt for 49 yds , Eli Heidenreich returns for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 16 Eli Heidenreich fumbled, recovered by ND Rod Heard IISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 19TD
5 plays · 16 yds · 2:02100% → 100%
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
0.3%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Jordan Faison for 4 yds to the NAVY 12Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+10
0.3%
Kedren Young run for 10 yds to the NAVY 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 0
OPP 2
-5
0.2%
Notre Dame Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NAVY 7Similar
Q4 7:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
0.2%
Kedren Young run for 3 yds to the NAVY 4Similar
Q4 7:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
0.2%
Kedren Young run for 4 yds for a TD (Zac Yoakam KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:400% → 0%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
0.2%
Braxton Woodson run for 1 yd to the NAVY 26Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
0.1%
Shane Reynolds run for 6 yds to the NAVY 32Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
0.1%
Braxton Woodson run for no gain to the NAVY 32Similar
Q4 5:20
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
0.1%
Riley Riethman punt for 68 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 21END OF GAME
8 plays · 54 yds · 4:45100% → 100%
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
0.2%
Kedren Young run for 3 yds to the ND 23Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+10
0.2%
Kedren Young run for 10 yds to the ND 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
0.2%
Kedren Young run for 4 yds to the ND 37Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+4
0.2%
Kedren Young run for 4 yds to the ND 41Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+19
0.1%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Davis Sherwood for 19 yds to the NAVY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
0.1%
Kedren Young run for 8 yds to the NAVY 32Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+1
0.1%
Kedren Young run for 1 yd to the NAVY 31Similar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+5
0.1%
Kedren Young run for 5 yds to the NAVY 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:44
Eli Heidenreich run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
+6.9
TD · Q2 5:05
Jeremiyah Love run for 2 yds for a TD (Zac Yoakam KICK)
-6.5
TD · Q3 5:35
Riley Leonard pass complete to Beaux Collins for 37 yds for a TD (Zac Yoakam KICK)
-5.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com