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LOU

Louisville 24 at Notre Dame 31

ND
2024 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2024 · Notre Dame Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreLOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of GameFG-3.2ND 81.6%Brock Travelstead 56 yd FG GOODAWAY 17 - HOME 24 · Q4 11:25
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:25 · Brock Travelstead 56 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialTime remaining
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 127Pregame prior+4.3Home team on offense+8.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.2Garbage-time factor+2.9Score differential+2.5Time remaining+1.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:59: Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 34 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK) — ND win probability +3.2 pts (now 74%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:40: Riley Leonard run for 4 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK) — ND win probability +7.7 pts (now 81%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 12:28: Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 5 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK) — LOU win probability +4.3 pts (now 28%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:16: Riley Leonard pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for 32 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK) — ND win probability +8.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:17: Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 24 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK) — LOU win probability +9.8 pts (now 13%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 7 of 8LOU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 9:59ND 4th & 3 at LOU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    65.9%−0.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    65.8%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:43LOU 4th & 6 at LOU 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    29.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:06LOU 4th & 8 at ND 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    23.9%−0.9
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:22ND 4th & 5 at LOU 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:46ND 4th & 4 at LOU 30, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.6%−0.5
    56% to make
    Punt
    72.4%−1.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:34LOU 4th & 1 at ND 15, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    24.4%−0.7
    83% to make
    Punt
    19.1%−6.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:17LOU 4th & 10 at LOU 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%−1.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:20ND 4th & 18 at ND 36, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%−3.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:36LOU 4th & 2 at LOU 48, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.7%−1.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:44ND 4th & 7 at LOU 45, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    79.4%−1.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:51LOU 4th & 19 at ND 47, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%−2.6
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:05ND 4th & 1 at ND 43, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    83.6%−1.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:33ND 4th & 3 at LOU 46, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    84.0%−2.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    85.2%−0.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:25LOU 4th & 7 at ND 39, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.8%−1.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    13.9%−0.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:29LOU 4th & 4 at ND 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    5.5%−1.3
    23% to make
    Punt
    5.8%−1.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:51ND 4th & 11 at ND 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%−1.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:53LOU 4th & 6 at LOU 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.3%−3.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 3 of 4LOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 13:30LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:22ND Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:59ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 2:40ND Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 12:28LOU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:16ND Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.1%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.3%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:17LOU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1TD
4 plays · 24 yds · 1:1928% → 29%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
72.0%
Isaac Brown run for 4 yds to the ND 20Similar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 6
OPP 20
-5
71.9%
Louisville Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Isaac Brown) to the ND 25Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+15
71.9%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 15 yds to the ND 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
71.3%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Isaac Brown for 10 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 2TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:0871% → 71%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
71.4%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Faison for 4 yds to the ND 29Similar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
71.1%
Riley Leonard run for 9 yds to the ND 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
70.8%
Jeremiyah Love run for 5 yds to the ND 43Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+19
70.7%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 19 yds to the LOU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
70.6%
Jeremiyah Love run for 9 yds to the LOU 29Similar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 1
OPP 29
-2
70.4%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for a loss of 2 yards to the LOU 31Similar
Q1 10:02
3RD & 3
OPP 31
0
70.0%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:59
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+5
69.7%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 5 yds to the LOU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
70.0%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 5 yds to the LOU 21Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+3
69.6%
Riley Leonard run for 3 yds to the LOU 18Similar
Q1 8:07
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+12
69.0%
Riley Leonard run for 12 yds to the LOU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
71.4%
Jeremiyah Love run for 6 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3FUMBLE
1 play · 46 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+46
70.9%
Tyler Shough run for 46 yds to the ND 47 Tyler Shough fumbled, recovered by ND Jaiden Ausberry J. Ausberry return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 4TD
4 plays · 53 yds · 1:5471% → 74%
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
71.1%
Riley Leonard run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 7
50
+16
71.1%
Jadarian Price run for 16 yds to the LOU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
71.3%
Jadarian Price run for no gain to the LOU 34Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+34
74.4%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 34 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5DOWNS
6 plays · -21 yds · 2:1627% → 27%
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
73.2%
Isaac Brown run for 20 yds to the LOU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
72.3%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Isaac Brown for 1 yd to the LOU 46Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
72.5%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:37
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+3
72.8%
Donald Chaney run for 3 yds to the LOU 49Similar
Q1 2:43
4TH & 6
OWN 49
-42
73.2%
run for a loss of 42 yards to the LOU 4 fumbled, recovered by ND Kennedy Urlacher K. Urlacher return for 3 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 6TD
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q1 2:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
80.9%
Riley Leonard run for 4 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 38 yds · 3:2524% → 23%
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
76.5%
Keyjuan Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 16Similar
Q1 1:49
2ND & 11
OWN 16
+27
76.9%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 27 yds to the LOU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
76.5%
Keyjuan Brown run for 4 yds to the LOU 47Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+6
76.2%
Isaac Brown run for 6 yds to the ND 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
76.3%
Tyler Shough sacked by Jaylen Sneed for a loss of 1 yard to the ND 48Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 11
OPP 48
+3
76.6%
Duke Watson run for 3 yds to the ND 45Similar
Q2 14:14
3RD & 8
OPP 45
0
76.4%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:06
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
76.9%
Brady Hodges punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Max Hurleman at the ND 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 8FUMBLE
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
80.4%
Jadarian Price run for 2 yds to the ND 9 Jadarian Price fumbled, recovered by LOU Tamarion McDonald T. McDonald return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9TD
3 plays · 9 yds · 1:3024% → 28%
Q2 13:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
75.8%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 4 yds to the ND 5Similar
Q2 13:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
76.0%
Isaac Brown run for no gain to the ND 5Similar
Q2 12:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
71.7%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 5 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 2:0076% → 78%
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
76.4%
Riley Leonard run for 2 yds to the ND 29Similar
Q2 11:58
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+2
77.5%
Jeremiyah Love run for 2 yds to the ND 31Similar
Q2 11:20
3RD & 6
OWN 31
0
77.3%
(11:20) LEONARD, Riley pass deep to the left incomplete intended for HARRISON, Jayden thrown to the LVL35, clock 11:17. PENALTY LVL Pass Interference on WATTS, Antonio declined LVL Roughing the Passer on GILLOTTE, Ashton enforced 15 yards from the UND31 to the UND46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:12
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
78.5%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
78.9%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:04
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+5
77.9%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 5 yds to the LOU 49Similar
Q2 10:22
4TH & 5
OPP 49
+1
77.9%
James Rendell punt for 45 yds , Ahmari Huggins-Bruce returns for 1 yd to the LOU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11INT
7 plays · 48 yds · 4:0324% → 25%
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+27
75.9%
Donald Chaney run for 27 yds to the LOU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
75.6%
Donald Chaney run for a loss of 2 yards to the LOU 30Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+8
76.2%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Keyjuan Brown for 8 yds to the LOU 38Similar
Q2 8:02
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+12
75.7%
Keyjuan Brown run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
50
+4
74.6%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Chris Bell for 4 yds to the ND 46Similar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 6
OPP 46
-1
74.6%
Donald Chaney run for a loss of 1 yard to the ND 47Similar
Q2 6:11
3RD & 7
OPP 47
-34
75.1%
Tyler Shough pass intercepted Xavier Watts return for 34 yds to the LOU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 12FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:1081% → 80%
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
80.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for 5 yds to the LOU 31Similar
Q2 5:19
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+4
80.5%
Jeremiyah Love run for 4 yds to the LOU 27Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 1
OPP 27
-3
80.1%
Jeremiyah Love run for a loss of 3 yards to the LOU 30Similar
Q2 3:46
4TH & 4
OPP 30
+48
79.5%
Mitch Jeter 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13DOWNS
11 plays · 60 yds · 3:1321% → 22%
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
79.3%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Isaac Brown for 3 yds to the LOU 28Similar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+12
79.3%
Isaac Brown run for 12 yds to the LOU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+24
79.1%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 24 yds to the ND 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
78.1%
Isaac Brown run for 8 yds to the ND 28Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+1
77.1%
Isaac Brown run for 1 yd to the ND 27Similar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+3
77.7%
Isaac Brown run for 3 yds to the ND 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
76.5%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
76.8%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+9
77.7%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Chris Bell for 9 yds to the ND 15Similar
Q2 0:34
4TH & 1
OPP 15
0
78.5%
Donald Chaney run for no gain to the ND 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
84.8%
Jeremiyah Love run for no gain to the ND 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4322% → 20%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.5%
Isaac Brown run for no gain to the LOU 25Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
78.8%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:23
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
79.5%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:17
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+7
80.1%
Brady Hodges punt for 38 yds , Max Hurleman returns for 7 yds to the ND 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · -8 yds · 1:4681% → 78%
Q3 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
81.0%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Beaux Collins for 5 yds to the ND 49 Notre Dame Penalty, Offensive Holding (Mitchell Evans) to the ND 39Similar
Q3 13:47
1ST & 15
OWN 39
-10
80.6%
(13:47) QB Keeper LEONARD, Riley rush to the right for no gain to the UND39 (GILLOTTE, Ashton), clock 13:43. PENALTY UND Illegal Block in the Back on MITCHELL, Kris enforced 10 yards from the UND39 to the UND29 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:28
1ST & 25
OWN 29
-5
80.0%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for a loss of 5 yards to the ND 24Similar
Q3 12:47
2ND & 30
OWN 24
+12
80.4%
Aneyas Williams run for 12 yds to the ND 36Similar
Q3 12:24
3RD & 18
OWN 36
0
78.9%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:20
4TH & 18
OWN 36
0
78.2%
James Rendell punt for 48 yds, downed at the LOU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17DOWNS
7 plays · 32 yds · 2:3220% → 18%
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-3
79.8%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Caullin Lacy for a loss of 3 yards to the LOU 13Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 13
OWN 13
+27
80.4%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Jamari Johnson for 27 yds to the LOU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
78.8%
Keyjuan Brown run for 5 yds to the LOU 45Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+3
78.5%
Keyjuan Brown run for 3 yds to the LOU 48Similar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 2
OWN 48
0
79.1%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:36
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
82.1%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4683% → 82%
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
83.3%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
83.3%
Jeremiyah Love run for 3 yds to the LOU 45Similar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 7
OPP 45
0
82.8%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:44
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
81.8%
James Rendell punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Ahmari Huggins-Bruce at the LOU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19PUNT
12 plays · 45 yds · 3:5316% → 17%
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+15
83.6%
Notre Dame Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the LOU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
82.9%
Caullin Lacy run for 1 yd to the LOU 26Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
83.2%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Donald Chaney for 2 yds to the LOU 28Similar
Q3 7:02
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+34
84.1%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 34 yds to the ND 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
81.4%
Donald Chaney run for 2 yds to the ND 36Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 8
OPP 36
0
81.6%
(06:04) SHOUGH, Tyler pass deep to the left incomplete intended for LACY, Caullin thrown to the UND5, clock 06:01. PENALTY UND Pass Interference on HEARD II, Rod LVL Pass Interference on LACY, Caullin , Offsetting penalties [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 8
OPP 36
-6
81.6%
Tyler Shough sacked by Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa for a loss of 6 yards to the ND 42Similar
Q3 5:15
3RD & 14
OPP 42
-5
83.6%
Louisville Penalty, False Start (Monroe Mills) to the ND 47Similar
Q3 4:59
3RD & 19
OPP 47
0
84.2%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:51
4TH & 19
OPP 47
0
85.1%
Brady Hodges punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Max Hurleman at the ND 16Similar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
82.7%
(04:45) LOVE, Jeremiyah rush to the right for no gain to the UND16 (MCDONALD, Tamarion), clock 04:41. PENALTY Before the snap, LVL Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the UND16 to the UND21. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20DOWNS
12 plays · 40 yds · 5:4983% → 89%
Q3 4:22
1ST & 5
OWN 21
0
82.9%
Jeremiyah Love run for no gain to the ND 21Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+13
82.7%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Faison for 13 yds to the ND 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
85.2%
Jeremiyah Love run for 3 yds to the ND 37Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 7
OWN 37
-5
85.7%
Notre Dame Penalty, False Start (Rocco Spindler) to the ND 32Similar
Q3 2:31
2ND & 12
OWN 32
+8
85.4%
Riley Leonard run for 8 yds to the ND 40Similar
Q3 1:49
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+3
87.3%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 3 yds to the ND 43Similar
Q3 1:05
4TH & 1
OWN 43
+4
88.0%
Riley Leonard run for 4 yds to the ND 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-3
89.7%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for a loss of 3 yards to the ND 44Similar
Q4 14:58
2ND & 13
OWN 44
+6
90.0%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 7
50
+4
89.6%
Aneyas Williams run for 4 yds to the LOU 46Similar
Q4 13:33
4TH & 3
OPP 46
+2
89.4%
Riley Leonard run for 2 yds to the LOU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21FG
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:0115% → 18%
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
84.9%
Isaac Brown run for 5 yds to the LOU 49Similar
Q4 13:01
2ND & 5
OWN 49
0
84.4%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:57
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+9
84.6%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Mark Redman for 9 yds to the ND 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
84.0%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 3 yds to the ND 39Similar
Q4 11:48
2ND & 7
OPP 39
0
84.1%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:43
3RD & 7
OPP 39
0
84.8%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:25
4TH & 7
OPP 39
+56
81.6%
Brock Travelstead 56 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0985% → 99%
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
84.8%
Notre Dame Penalty, False Start (Rocco Spindler) to the ND 20Similar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+6
84.7%
Riley Leonard run for 6 yds to the ND 26Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
85.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 3 yds to the ND 29Similar
Q4 10:13
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+34
85.3%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jayden Harrison for 34 yds to the LOU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
89.9%
Jeremiyah Love run for 5 yds to the LOU 32Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+32
98.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for 32 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 23TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 3:555% → 13%
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
94.9%
Isaac Brown run for 5 yds to the LOU 30Similar
Q4 8:53
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
94.7%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Jamari Johnson for 6 yds to the LOU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
94.8%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 12 yds to the LOU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
94.8%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:01
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+6
94.8%
Donald Chaney run for 6 yds to the ND 46Similar
Q4 7:31
3RD & 4
OPP 46
0
95.0%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:29
4TH & 4
OPP 46
+6
95.2%
Tyler Shough run for 6 yds to the ND 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-6
95.3%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Isaac Brown for 9 yds to the ND 31 Louisville Penalty, Personal Foul (Jamari Johnson) to the ND 46Similar
Q4 6:43
1ST & 16
OPP 46
0
95.5%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 16
OPP 46
+11
95.7%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Keyjuan Brown for 11 yds to the ND 35Similar
Q4 6:07
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+8
95.5%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Chris Bell for 8 yds to the ND 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-9
95.1%
Tyler Shough sacked by Rylie Mills and Junior Tuihalamaka for a loss of 9 yards to the ND 36Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 19
OPP 36
+12
97.2%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 12 yds to the ND 24Similar
Q4 5:17
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+24
87.4%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 24 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 2:2695% → 97%
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
95.0%
Riley Leonard run for 3 yds to the ND 28Similar
Q4 4:24
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
96.3%
Riley Leonard run for 2 yds to the ND 30Similar
Q4 3:37
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-6
96.8%
Riley Leonard sacked by TJ Quinn for a loss of 6 yards to the ND 24Similar
Q4 2:51
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+5
96.6%
James Rendell punt for 36 yds , Ahmari Huggins-Bruce returns for 5 yds to the LOU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 25DOWNS
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:497% → 6%
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
93.2%
Isaac Brown run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:21
2ND & 5
50
+3
91.3%
Isaac Brown run for 3 yds to the ND 47Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+1
91.9%
Donald Chaney run for 1 yd to the ND 46Similar
Q4 0:59
4TH & 1
OPP 46
-5
93.3%
Louisville Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the LOU 49Similar
Q4 0:53
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
94.2%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:2299% → 99%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
98.6%
(00:45) [NH] Kneel down by LEONARD, Riley at LVL50 (team loss of 1), clock 00:37.Similar
Q4 0:23
2ND & 11
50
-2
98.5%
(00:23) [NH] Kneel down by LEONARD, Riley at UND48 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:17
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 24 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)
-9.8
TD · Q4 9:16
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for 32 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)
+8.7
TD · Q1 2:40
Riley Leonard run for 4 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)
+7.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com