2024 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2024 · Milan Puskar Stadium
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Win probability · WVU
modelWVU aheadUALB aheadconfidence bandkey playWVU scoreUALB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:12 · Owen Lawson punt for 50 yds, downed at the WVU 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 4:40: Griffin Woodell run for 7 yds for a TD (John Opalko KICK) — UALB win probability +1.7 pts (now 4%) (top driver: UALB has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:54: Myles Burkett pass complete to Jacari Carter for 33 yds for a TD (John Opalko KICK) — UALB win probability +2.0 pts (now 6%) (top driver: UALB has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:39: Garrett Greene run for 40 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes II KICK) — WVU win probability +2.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:22: Garrett Greene pass complete to Hudson Clement for 10 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes II KICK) — WVU win probability +2.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:49: CJ Donaldson Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes II KICK) — WVU win probability +0.9 pts (now 100%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WVU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UALB made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
- Q1 14:57WVU 4th & 1 at UALB 17, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.4%71% to convertField goal98.3%−0.180% to makePunt97.9%−0.6average punt
- Q1 8:38UALB 4th & 12 at UALB 33, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snapGo for it1.9%−0.223% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.1%average punt
- Q1 2:12UALB 4th & 13 at UALB 19, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snapGo for it2.2%−0.119% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.3%average punt
- Q2 11:24UALB 4th & 3 at UALB 45, down 21Close callPunted · 1.6% before the snapGo for it1.6%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.6%−0.1average punt
- Q2 10:13WVU 4th & 4 at WVU 41, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.4% before the snapGo for it98.4%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.4%average punt
- Q2 0:00UALB 4th & 10 at UALB 49, down 14Close callWent for it · 3.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.2%−0.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt3.4%average punt
- Q3 12:02UALB 4th & 1 at WVU 1, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.1%59% to convertField goal3.4%−0.694% to makePunt1.7%−2.3average punt
- Q3 12:02WVU 4th & 1 at UALB 29, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.5%71% to convertField goal96.0%−0.558% to makePunt94.9%−1.6average punt
- Q3 2:54UALB 4th & 2 at UALB 26, down 21Close callPunted · 1.1% before the snapGo for it1.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%−0.1average punt
- Q3 0:49WVU 4th & 1 at UALB 2, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.0%60% to convertField goal98.7%−0.494% to makePunt97.8%−1.3average punt
- Q4 9:51UALB 4th & 1 at WVU 13, down 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%71% to convertField goal0.1%−<0.185% to makePunt-0.3%−0.4average punt
- Q4 2:00UALB 4th & 2 at WVU 33, down 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%57% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.149% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 0:23UALB 4th & 1 at WVU 17, down 35Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.171% to convertField goal0.0%80% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WVU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7UALB made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 9:34WVU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two98.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:41WVU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.0%97% to makeGo for two98.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:49WVU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.6%97% to makeGo for two98.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:40UALB Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call2.9%97% to makeGo for two2.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:54UALB Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call5.2%97% to makeGo for two5.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:39WVU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.4%97% to makeGo for two96.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:22WVU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.9%97% to makeGo for two98.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:49WVU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:22WVU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWVUDrive 1TD12 plays · 90 yds · 5:2399% → 98%
Q1 14:57
2ND & 1
OWN 19
+13
98.6%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Traylon Ray for 13 yds to the WVU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
98.6%
UAlbany Penalty, Block below the waist on ANGRY, Kevon enforced (Kevon Angry) to the ALB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
98.6%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Kole Taylor for 5 yds to the ALB 32Similar
Q1 14:57
3RD & 9
OPP 25
+8
98.6%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Traylon Ray for 8 yds to the ALB 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 2PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 0:562% → 2%
Q1 8:38
4TH & 12
OWN 33
+14
98.1%
Owen Lawson punt for 57 yds , Preston Fox returns for 14 yds to the WVU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 3TD6 plays · 76 yds · 2:5798% → 98%
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+21
98.1%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Rodney Gallagher III for 21 yds to the WVU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+18
98.1%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Justin Robinson for 18 yds to the ALB 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
98.1%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Kole Taylor for 3 yds to the ALB 12Similar
Q1 5:41
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+12
98.2%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Justin Robinson for 12 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 4PUNT8 plays · 11 yds · 3:292% → 2%
WVUDrive 5TD6 plays · 69 yds · 2:2398% → 99%
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
98.0%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Hudson Clement for 6 yds to the WVU 37Similar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+10
98.0%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Ric'Darious Farmer for 10 yds to the WVU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
98.0%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Rodney Gallagher III for 5 yds to the ALB 48Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+39
98.5%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Kole Taylor for 39 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 3:252% → 2%
WVUDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1199% → 99%
UALBDrive 8TD12 plays · 87 yds · 5:332% → 4%
Q2 10:13
3RD & 4
OWN 19
+6
98.6%
Myles Burkett pass complete to Faysal Aden for 6 yds to the ALB 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
98.5%
West Virginia Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Anthony Wilson Jr.) to the ALB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+23
98.5%
Myles Burkett pass complete to MarQeese Dietz for 23 yds to the WVU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:28
3RD & 16
OPP 40
+19
98.5%
Myles Burkett pass complete to Seven McGee for 19 yds to the WVU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 9FUMBLE1 play · 36 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+36
97.1%
Jahiem White run for 36 yds to the ALB 36 Jahiem White fumbled, recovered by ALB Erv Wiggins Jr. E. Wiggins Jr. return for 1 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 10TD8 plays · 64 yds · 2:303% → 6%
Q2 4:24
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+22
96.9%
Myles Burkett pass complete to Seven McGee for 22 yds to the WVU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+14
96.7%
Myles Burkett pass complete to MarQeese Dietz for 14 yds to the WVU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 16
OPP 33
+33
94.0%
Myles Burkett pass complete to Jacari Carter for 33 yds for a TD (John Opalko KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 11TD7 plays · 75 yds · 1:1595% → 97%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
94.9%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Hudson Clement for 6 yds to the ALB 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 12DOWNS9 plays · 24 yds · 0:343% → 3%
Q2 0:34
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+23
96.8%
Myles Burkett pass complete to Jackson Parker for 23 yds to the ALB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 13DOWNS8 plays · 84 yds · 2:543% → 4%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+41
96.6%
Myles Burkett pass complete to Seven McGee for 41 yds to the WVU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-7
96.2%
Myles Burkett sacked by Sean Martin for a loss of 7 yards to the ALB 49Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 17
OWN 49
+49
96.6%
Myles Burkett pass complete to Levi Wentz for 49 yds to the WVU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 14TD14 plays · 99 yds · 6:4097% → 99%
Q3 12:02
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+14
96.6%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Traylon Ray for 14 yds to the WVU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
96.8%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Hudson Clement for 17 yds to the ALB 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-8
96.8%
Garrett Greene sacked by Dillon Dunathan for a loss of 8 yards to the ALB 46Similar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 18
OPP 46
+5
96.8%
QB Keeper GREENE, Garrett rush to the left for a gain of 4 yards to the UAL42 (IULIANO, Jack). PENALTY UAL Offsides on ADUAKA, Chiebuka enforced 5 yards from the UAL46 to the UAL41 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
98.8%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Hudson Clement for 10 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 2:221% → 1%
WVUDrive 16TD4 plays · 65 yds · 2:0599% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 17DOWNS14 plays · 56 yds · 5:510% → 0%
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+8
99.9%
Myles Burkett pass complete to Caden Burti for 8 yds to the ALB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+8
99.9%
Myles Burkett pass complete to Caden Burti for 8 yds to the WVU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+4
99.9%
BURKETT, Myles pass short to the left incomplete intended for CARTER, Jacari thrown to the WVU37. PENALTY WVU Pass Interference on FAGAN, Dontez enforced at the spot of the foul for 4 yards to the WVU37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+15
99.9%
BURKETT, Myles pass deep to the left incomplete intended for WENTZ, Levi thrown to the WVU0. PENALTY WVU Pass Interference on FAGAN, Dontez enforced 15 yards to the WVU22 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-2
99.9%
Myles Burkett pass complete to Griffin Woodell for a loss of 2 yards to the WVU 24Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 24
+11
99.9%
Myles Burkett pass complete to Jacari Carter for 11 yds to the WVU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 18TD7 plays · 87 yds · 2:29100% → 100%
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
99.9%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Rodney Gallagher III for 8 yds to the WVU 21Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 2
OWN 21
+4
99.9%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Jack Sammarco for 4 yds to the WVU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
99.9%
MARCHIOL, Nicco pass deep to the left incomplete intended for FOX, Preston broken up by EZIOMUME, KC at the UAL0. PENALTY UAL Pass Interference on EZIOMUME, KC enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the UAL12 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
99.9%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Treylan Davis for no gain to the ALB 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 19END OF GAME18 plays · 54 yds · 7:160% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:39
Garrett Greene run for 40 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes II KICK)
+2.2
TD · Q2 1:54
Myles Burkett pass complete to Jacari Carter for 33 yds for a TD (John Opalko KICK)
-2
TD · Q3 5:22
Garrett Greene pass complete to Hudson Clement for 10 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes II KICK)
+2