Try the model
TOW

Towson 20 at Cincinnati 38

CIN
2024 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2024 · Nippert Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadTOW aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreTOW score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:27 · Bryce LaFollette punt for 39 yds , Michael Mussari returns for no gain to the CIN 13 , returns for no gain to the CIN 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 143Pregame prior+13.8Home team on offense+26.1Score differential+10.2Garbage-time factor+7.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:54: Carlos Davis pass complete to Jaceon Doss for 76 yds for a TD (Keegan Vaughan KICK) — TOW win probability +1.0 pts (now 4%) (top driver: TOW has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:56: Brendan Sorsby run for 12 yds for a TD (Carter Brown KICK) — CIN win probability +1.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:19: Carlos Davis pass complete to John Dunmore for 28 yds for a TD (Keegan Vaughan KICK) — TOW win probability +1.3 pts (now 5%) (top driver: TOW has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 10:10: Keegan Vaughan 33 yd FG GOOD — TOW win probability +1.0 pts (now 8%) (top driver: TOW has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:52: Evan Pryor run for 64 yds for a TD (Carter Brown KICK) — CIN win probability +4.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 3 of 4TOW made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 9:51TOW 4th & 11 at TOW 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:03TOW 4th & 15 at CIN 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.2%
    83% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:49TOW 4th & 8 at CIN 45, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    3.6%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    3.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:20TOW 4th & 1 at CIN 2, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.1%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    2.6%−0.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−1.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:59CIN 4th & 7 at CIN 42, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:55TOW 4th & 2 at TOW 33, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:49CIN 4th & 13 at TOW 13, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.3%
    85% to make
    Punt
    95.0%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:00TOW 4th & 5 at CIN 36, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    3.8%−<0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    3.4%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:10TOW 4th & 3 at CIN 16, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.7%−0.2
    81% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−2.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:25TOW 4th & 2 at TOW 33, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:38CIN 4th & 5 at TOW 18, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.6%
    79% to make
    Punt
    94.2%−2.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:10TOW 4th & 5 at TOW 41, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:27TOW 4th & 11 at midfield, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:25CIN 4th & 1 at CIN 22, up 18
    Close callPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.0%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:38TOW 4th & 6 at CIN 32, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%
    51% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5TOW made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:17CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:50CIN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:13CIN Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:54TOW Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:56CIN Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:19TOW Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:52CIN Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:4298% → 98%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Barry Jackson Jr. for 5 yds to the CIN 30Similar
Q1 14:29
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
98.1%
Corey Kiner run for 5 yds to the CIN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+49
98.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Aaron Turner for 49 yds to the TOW 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
98.0%
Corey Kiner run for 3 yds to the TOW 13Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+2
97.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 2 yds to the TOW 11Similar
Q1 11:54
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+9
97.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jamoi Mayes for 9 yds to the TOW 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.9%
Brendan Sorsby run for 2 yds for a TD (Carter Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:352% → 2%
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
97.8%
Carlos Davis sacked by Jared Bartlett for a loss of 4 yards to the TOW 21Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+3
97.8%
Devin Matthews run for 3 yds to the TOW 24Similar
Q1 9:57
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
97.7%
Carlos Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:51
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+54
97.7%
Bryce LaFollette punt for 54 yds , Michael Mussari returns for no gain to the CIN 20 , returns for no gain to the CIN 20Similar
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
97.6%
(09:41) DAVIS, Carlos pass deep to the right incomplete intended for RUNYON, Carter thrown to the CIN0, clock 09:35. PENALTY CIN Holding on YOUNG, Jordan enforced 10 yards from the CIN20 to the CIN10 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 3FG
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:322% → 3%
Q1 9:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
97.6%
Carlos Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
97.6%
Devin Matthews run for 5 yds to the CIN 5Similar
Q1 9:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
97.6%
Towson Penalty, False Start (Florian Staehler) to the CIN 10Similar
Q1 8:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
97.5%
Towson Penalty, Delay Of Game (John Dunmore) to the CIN 15Similar
Q1 8:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
0
97.5%
Carlos Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+32
97.5%
Keegan Vaughan 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 1:0797% → 98%
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
97.4%
Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the CIN 37Similar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+21
97.3%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 21 yds to the TOW 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
97.3%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+42
97.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 42 yds for a TD (Carter Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 30 yds · 2:002% → 3%
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.6%
Tyrell Greene Jr. run for 6 yds to the TOW 31Similar
Q1 6:24
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+22
97.5%
Carlos Davis pass complete to Lukkas Londono for 22 yds to the CIN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
97.4%
Tyrell Greene Jr. run for 2 yds to the CIN 45Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 8
OPP 45
0
97.3%
Carlos Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:23
3RD & 8
OPP 45
0
97.4%
Carlos Davis run for no gain to the CIN 45Similar
Q1 4:49
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
97.4%
Bryce LaFollette punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 1:2297% → 98%
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.4%
Chance Williams run for 3 yds to the CIN 28Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+11
97.3%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 11 yds to the CIN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+61
97.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Sterling Berkhalter for 61 yds for a TD (Carter Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 7DOWNS
12 plays · 62 yds · 3:432% → 3%
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
97.8%
Carlos Davis pass complete to Lukkas Londono for 4 yds to the TOW 39Similar
Q1 2:52
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+8
97.8%
Carlos Davis pass complete to Lukkas Londono for 8 yds to the TOW 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-3
97.7%
Devin Matthews run for a loss of 3 yards to the TOW 45 Devin Matthews fumbled, recovered by TOW Devin Matthews D. Matthews return for 1 ydsSimilar
Q1 1:44
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+18
97.8%
Tyrell Greene Jr. run for 18 yds to the CIN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
97.7%
Towson Penalty, False Start (Florian Staehler) to the CIN 42Similar
Q1 1:08
1ST & 15
OPP 42
0
97.7%
Carlos Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:03
2ND & 15
OPP 42
+21
97.7%
Carlos Davis pass complete to Da'Kendall James for 21 yds to the CIN 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+10
97.5%
Carlos Davis pass complete to Carter Runyon for 10 yds to the CIN 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
97.5%
Christopher Watkins run for 7 yds to the CIN 4Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 4
+2
97.5%
Devin Matthews run for 2 yds to the CIN 2Similar
Q2 14:35
3RD & 1
OPP 2
0
97.5%
Devin Matthews run for no gain to the CIN 2Similar
Q2 14:20
4TH & 1
OPP 2
-1
97.5%
Devin Matthews run for a loss of 1 yard to the CIN 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 39 yds · 3:1798% → 98%
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+13
97.8%
Tony Johnson run for 13 yds to the CIN 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
97.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 5 yds to the CIN 21Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+18
97.8%
Corey Kiner run for 18 yds to the CIN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
97.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-4
97.8%
Manny Covey run for a loss of 4 yards to the CIN 35Similar
Q2 11:49
3RD & 14
OWN 35
+7
97.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Manny Covey for 7 yds to the CIN 42Similar
Q2 10:59
4TH & 7
OWN 42
0
97.7%
Mason Fletcher punt for 51 yds, fair catch by John Dunmore at the TOW 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 9TD
4 plays · 96 yds · 0:592% → 4%
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+14
97.6%
Carlos Davis pass complete to Devin Matthews for 14 yds to the TOW 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
97.6%
Devin Matthews run for 6 yds to the TOW 24Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 4
OWN 24
0
97.5%
Carlos Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:54
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+76
96.4%
Carlos Davis pass complete to Jaceon Doss for 76 yds for a TD (Keegan Vaughan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10TD
5 plays · 63 yds · 2:5397% → 98%
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+18
96.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 18 yds to the TOW 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+38
96.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 38 yds to the TOW 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
96.6%
Chance Williams run for 4 yds to the TOW 3Similar
Q2 7:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-9
96.5%
Brendan Sorsby run for a loss of 9 yards to the TOW 12Similar
Q2 6:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
97.5%
Brendan Sorsby run for 12 yds for a TD (Carter Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:013% → 3%
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.2%
Tyrell Greene Jr. run for 6 yds to the TOW 31Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
97.1%
Carlos Davis pass complete to Carter Runyon for 2 yds to the TOW 33Similar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
97.1%
Carlos Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:55
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+12
97.2%
Bryce LaFollette punt for 45 yds , Michael Mussari returns for 12 yds to the CIN 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12MISSED FG
11 plays · 53 yds · 3:5798% → 97%
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
97.5%
Corey Kiner run for 12 yds to the CIN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
97.5%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Sterling Berkhalter for 9 yds to the TOW 45Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+10
97.5%
Corey Kiner run for 10 yds to the TOW 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
97.5%
(03:55) SORSBY, Brendan pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for BERKHALTER, Sterling thrown to the TOW0, clock 03:50. PENALTY TOW Pass Interference on GANT, Emiril enforced 15 yards to the TOW20 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
97.5%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:46
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+1
97.5%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the TOW 19Similar
Q2 3:04
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+11
97.4%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 11 yds to the TOW 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-10
97.4%
run for a loss of 10 yards to the TOW 13 fumbled, recovered by CIN Corey Kiner C. Kiner return for 5 ydsSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
0
97.5%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
0
97.4%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+31
97.3%
Carter Brown 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 13TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 1:253% → 5%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+39
97.1%
Christopher Watkins run for 39 yds to the CIN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
96.7%
Towson Penalty, False Start (Florian Staehler) to the CIN 46Similar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 15
OPP 46
-4
97.0%
Carlos Davis sacked by Eric Phillips for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 19
50
+7
97.1%
Carlos Davis pass complete to Carter Runyon for 7 yds to the CIN 43Similar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 12
OPP 43
-5
96.9%
Towson Penalty, False Start (Jaceon Doss) to the CIN 48Similar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 17
OPP 48
+12
97.1%
Carlos Davis run for 12 yds to the CIN 36Similar
Q2 1:00
4TH & 5
OPP 36
+8
96.7%
Carlos Davis run for 8 yds to the CIN 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
96.3%
Carlos Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
96.4%
Carlos Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+28
95.0%
Carlos Davis pass complete to John Dunmore for 28 yds for a TD (Keegan Vaughan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14END OF HALF
4 plays · 40 yds · 0:1596% → 96%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
95.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 8 yds to the CIN 38Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 2
OWN 38
0
95.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+13
95.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Evan Pryor for 13 yds to the TOW 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+19
96.0%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 19 yds to the TOW 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 15FG
12 plays · 59 yds · 4:505% → 8%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
95.1%
Tyrell Greene Jr. run for 4 yds to the TOW 29Similar
Q3 14:37
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-7
94.9%
Towson Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Carlos Davis) to the TOW 22Similar
Q3 14:27
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+15
95.3%
Cincinnati Penalty, Roughing the Passer on ROETHERFORD, Cameron enforced (Cam Roetherford) to the TOW 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
94.7%
Devin Matthews run for 2 yds to the TOW 41Similar
Q3 13:43
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+2
94.6%
Devin Matthews run for 2 yds to the TOW 43Similar
Q3 12:59
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+11
94.5%
Carlos Davis pass complete to Devin Matthews for 11 yds to the CIN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
94.0%
Devin Matthews run for 8 yds to the CIN 38Similar
Q3 11:38
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+15
93.7%
Devin Matthews run for 15 yds to the CIN 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
93.2%
Christopher Watkins run for 7 yds to the CIN 16Similar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 3
OPP 16
0
93.1%
Carlos Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:18
3RD & 3
OPP 16
0
93.5%
Carlos Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:10
4TH & 3
OPP 16
+33
92.4%
Keegan Vaughan 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16TD
1 play · 64 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
96.5%
Evan Pryor run for 64 yds for a TD (Carter Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:274% → 4%
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
95.9%
Tyrell Greene Jr. run for 8 yds to the TOW 33Similar
Q3 9:24
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
95.5%
Carlos Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
95.7%
Carlos Davis run for no gain to the TOW 33Similar
Q3 8:25
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
95.7%
Bryce LaFollette punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Michael Mussari at the CIN 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18FG
11 plays · 63 yds · 3:4197% → 98%
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
96.5%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 9 yds to the CIN 28Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+5
96.6%
Manny Covey run for 5 yds to the CIN 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+19
96.5%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Aaron Turner for 19 yds to the TOW 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
96.7%
Manny Covey run for 5 yds to the TOW 43Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+6
96.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 6 yds to the TOW 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
96.7%
Chance Williams run for 7 yds to the TOW 30Similar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+7
97.3%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jamoi Mayes for 7 yds to the TOW 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
97.3%
Barry Jackson Jr. run for 5 yds to the TOW 18Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 5
OPP 18
0
97.3%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:47
3RD & 5
OPP 18
0
97.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:38
4TH & 5
OPP 18
+36
97.8%
Carter Brown 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:283% → 3%
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
97.5%
Devin Matthews run for 7 yds to the TOW 32Similar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
97.3%
Devin Matthews run for 4 yds to the TOW 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
97.3%
Devin Matthews run for 6 yds to the TOW 42Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 4
OWN 42
-1
97.3%
Carlos Davis pass complete to Christopher Watkins for a loss of 1 yard to the TOW 41Similar
Q3 2:15
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
97.4%
Carlos Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:10
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
97.4%
Bryce LaFollette punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Michael Mussari at the CIN 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20FUMBLE
5 plays · 68 yds · 2:0798% → 98%
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
98.1%
Brendan Sorsby run for no gain to the CIN 20Similar
Q3 1:28
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+14
98.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Francis Sherman for 14 yds to the CIN 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
98.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:41
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+7
98.2%
Victor Dawson run for 7 yds to the CIN 41Similar
Q4 14:57
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+47
98.4%
Victor Dawson run for 47 yds to the TOW 12 Victor Dawson fumbled, recovered by TOW Xavier Terry X. Terry return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 21FUMBLE
4 plays · 30 yds · 1:432% → 2%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
97.7%
Tyrell Greene Jr. run for 4 yds to the TOW 16Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+6
97.7%
Carlos Davis pass complete to Da'Kendall James for 6 yds to the TOW 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
97.8%
Carlos Davis pass complete to Tyrell Greene Jr. for 8 yds to the TOW 30Similar
Q4 13:04
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+12
97.7%
Tyrell Greene Jr. run for 12 yds to the TOW 36 fumbled, recovered by CIN Darian Varner D. Varner return for 6 yds fumbled, recovered by TOW return for 6 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 3:042% → 2%
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
97.7%
Christopher Watkins run for 4 yds to the TOW 40Similar
Q4 11:48
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+2
97.9%
Christopher Watkins run for 2 yds to the TOW 42Similar
Q4 11:02
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+9
98.1%
Carlos Davis pass complete to Da'Kendall James for 9 yds to the CIN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
97.9%
Carlos Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-1
98.0%
Devin Matthews run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:33
3RD & 11
50
0
98.0%
Carlos Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:27
4TH & 11
50
+39
98.1%
Bryce LaFollette punt for 39 yds , Michael Mussari returns for no gain to the CIN 13 , returns for no gain to the CIN 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5499% → 99%
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
98.6%
Chance Williams run for 8 yds to the CIN 21Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 2
OWN 21
+1
98.7%
Chance Williams run for 1 yd to the CIN 22Similar
Q4 8:18
3RD & 1
OWN 22
0
98.7%
Brendan Sorsby run for no gain to the CIN 22Similar
Q4 7:25
4TH & 1
OWN 22
-2
98.7%
Mason Fletcher punt for 54 yds , John Dunmore returns for a loss of 2 yards to the TOW 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 24DOWNS
9 plays · 46 yds · 4:362% → 1%
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
98.1%
Devin Matthews run for 12 yds to the TOW 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
98.0%
Devin Matthews run for 2 yds to the TOW 36Similar
Q4 6:07
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
98.2%
Carlos Davis pass complete to Carter Runyon for no gain to the TOW 36Similar
Q4 5:25
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+15
98.6%
(05:25) DAVIS, Carlos pass to the right complete for 13 yards to DOSS, Jaceon caught at the TOW49 and advanced to the TOW49 (CARROLL, Kalen), clock 05:07. PENALTY CIN Roughing the Passer on SIMMS III, Brian enforced 15 yards from the TOW49 to the CIN36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
98.3%
Carlos Davis pass complete to Christopher Watkins for a loss of 1 yard to the CIN 37Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 11
OPP 37
-2
98.4%
Carlos Davis pass complete to Jaceon Doss for a loss of 2 yards to the CIN 39Similar
Q4 3:14
3RD & 13
OPP 39
+7
98.4%
Carlos Davis pass complete to John Dunmore for 7 yds to the CIN 32Similar
Q4 2:38
4TH & 6
OPP 32
0
99.4%
Carlos Davis pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 25END OF GAME
6 plays · 59 yds · 2:1199% → 99%
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
99.2%
Evan Pryor run for 4 yds to the CIN 36Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+5
99.3%
Evan Pryor run for 5 yds to the CIN 41Similar
Q4 1:39
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+9
99.3%
Manny Covey run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
50
+11
99.3%
Manny Covey run for 11 yds to the TOW 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+32
99.3%
Evan Pryor run for 32 yds to the TOW 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
99.4%
(00:25) [SG] Kneel down by CIN at TOW9 (team loss of 2), clock 00:23.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:52
Evan Pryor run for 64 yds for a TD (Carter Brown KICK)
+4.1
TD · Q2 0:19
Carlos Davis pass complete to John Dunmore for 28 yds for a TD (Keegan Vaughan KICK)
-1.3
TD · Q2 9:54
Carlos Davis pass complete to Jaceon Doss for 76 yds for a TD (Keegan Vaughan KICK)
-1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com