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STBK

Stony Brook 3 at Marshall 45

MRSH
2024 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2024 · Joan C. Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · MRSH
modelMRSH aheadSTBK aheadconfidence bandkey playMRSH scoreSTBK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:47 · Alec Clark punt for 38 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 11Pregame prior+46.2Home team on offense+0.1Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Garbage-time factor−0.1Blowout margin−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:33: A.J. Turner run for 80 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK) — MRSH win probability +1.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:38: Stone Earle pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 9 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK) — MRSH win probability +1.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:49: Stone Earle pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 28 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK) — MRSH win probability +1.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 4:15: Enda Kirby 39 yd FG GOOD — STBK win probability +0.2 pts (now 2%) (top driver: STBK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:07: Braylon Braxton pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 67 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK) — MRSH win probability +0.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MRSH made the numbers' call on 4 of 6STBK made the numbers' call on 13 of 14
  1. Q1 11:56STBK 4th & 4 at MRSH 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    3.2%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    3.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:47MRSH 4th & 5 at MRSH 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:35STBK 4th & 8 at STBK 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:59MRSH 4th & 9 at MRSH 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:49STBK 4th & 4 at STBK 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.3%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:36STBK 4th & 1 at STBK 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.6%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:02STBK 4th & 28 at STBK 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%−0.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:02MRSH 4th & 8 at STBK 39, up 7
    Close callPunted · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    94.7%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.7%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:30STBK 4th & 8 at STBK 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:17MRSH 4th & 17 at STBK 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.4%−0.5
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.9%
    60% to make
    Punt
    91.6%−1.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:17STBK 4th & 18 at STBK 14, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−0.8
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.9%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:24STBK 4th & 1 at STBK 34, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:35STBK 4th & 5 at STBK 40, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:07MRSH 4th & 1 at MRSH 23, up 24
    Close callPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.2%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:22STBK 4th & 2 at MRSH 41, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%−0.4
    32% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q3 4:15STBK 4th & 8 at MRSH 22, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.3%
    72% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.8
    average punt
  17. Q3 0:51MRSH 4th & 12 at STBK 26, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    98.0%−0.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 14:50STBK 4th & 4 at STBK 32, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  19. Q4 13:14STBK 4th & 14 at STBK 21, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:58STBK 4th & 2 at STBK 33, down 42
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MRSH made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 2:33MRSH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:38MRSH Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:49MRSH Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:07MRSH Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:14MRSH Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:45MRSH Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STBKDrive 1DOWNS
7 plays · 43 yds · 3:042% → 3%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.7%
Roland Dempster run for 5 yds to the STBK 30Similar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
97.6%
Roland Dempster run for no gain to the STBK 30Similar
Q1 13:54
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+32
97.5%
Tyler Knoop pass complete to Jayce Freeman for 32 yds to the MRSH 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
97.5%
Tyler Knoop sacked by Jabari Ishmael and Mike Green for a loss of 2 yards to the MRSH 40Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 12
OPP 40
+1
97.4%
Roland Dempster run for 1 yd to the MRSH 39Similar
Q1 12:37
3RD & 11
OPP 39
+7
97.3%
Roland Dempster run for 7 yds to the MRSH 32Similar
Q1 11:56
4TH & 4
OPP 32
0
97.2%
Tyler Knoop pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0297% → 97%
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
97.2%
Elijah Metcalf run for 3 yds to the MRSH 35Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+2
97.2%
Jordan Houston run for 2 yds to the MRSH 37Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
97.1%
Stone Earle pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:47
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
97.1%
Alec Clark punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:103% → 3%
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
97.1%
Tyler Knoop sacked by Ahmere Foster for a loss of 1 yard to the STBK 24Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+2
97.0%
Tyler Knoop pass complete to Chance Knox for 2 yds to the STBK 26Similar
Q1 9:56
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+10
96.9%
Tyler Knoop pass complete to Roland Dempster for 10 yds to the STBK 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
96.8%
Tyler Knoop pass complete to Chance Knox for 2 yds to the STBK 38Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
96.7%
Tyler Knoop pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:42
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
96.7%
Tyler Knoop pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:35
4TH & 8
OWN 38
+7
96.7%
Clayton Taylor punt for 45 yds , Elijah Metcalf returns for 7 yds to the MRSH 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:2797% → 96%
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
96.7%
Jordan Houston run for 5 yds to the MRSH 29Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+10
96.7%
Stone Earle pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 10 yds to the MRSH 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
96.6%
Jordan Houston run for 1 yd to the MRSH 40Similar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
96.5%
Stone Earle pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:01
3RD & 9
OWN 40
0
96.4%
Stone Earle pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:59
4TH & 9
OWN 40
+6
96.3%
Alec Clark punt for 54 yds , Chance Knox returns for 6 yds to the STBK 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 5PUNT
11 plays · 29 yds · 4:024% → 5%
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-2
96.4%
Tyler Knoop pass complete to Chance Knox for a loss of 2 yards to the STBK 10Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 12
OWN 10
0
96.2%
Tyler Knoop pass complete to Jasiah Williams for no gain to the STBK 10Similar
Q1 5:32
3RD & 12
OWN 10
+13
96.1%
Tyler Knoop pass complete to Cal Redman for 13 yds to the STBK 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
95.9%
Tyler Knoop run for 9 yds to the STBK 32Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 1
OWN 32
0
95.7%
Tyler Knoop pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:35
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+3
95.7%
Roland Dempster run for 3 yds to the STBK 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
95.7%
Tyler Knoop pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
95.7%
Roland Dempster run for 1 yd to the STBK 36Similar
Q1 3:54
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+5
95.7%
Tyler Knoop pass complete to Chance Knox for 5 yds to the STBK 41Similar
Q1 2:49
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
95.4%
Clayton Taylor punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Elijah Metcalf at the MRSH 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 6TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
96.6%
A.J. Turner run for 80 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · -5 yds · 3:294% → 4%
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
96.1%
Malachi Marshall pass complete to Chance Knox for 5 yds to the STBK 30Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
96.0%
Malachi Marshall pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:08
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
96.0%
Malachi Marshall pass complete to Jayden Cook for 4 yds to the STBK 34Similar
Q1 1:36
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+4
96.1%
Roland Dempster run for 4 yds to the STBK 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-14
95.9%
Malachi Marshall run for a loss of 14 yards to the STBK 24 Malachi Marshall fumbled, recovered by STBK Malachi Marshall M. Marshall return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 24
OWN 24
-8
96.0%
Malachi Marshall sacked by Dylan Davis for a loss of 8 yards to the STBK 16Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 32
OWN 16
+4
95.9%
Jayden Cook run for 4 yds to the STBK 20Similar
Q2 14:02
4TH & 28
OWN 20
+7
95.8%
Clayton Taylor punt for 44 yds , Elijah Metcalf returns for 7 yds to the MRSH 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:0096% → 96%
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
96.4%
Stone Earle run for 16 yds to the STBK 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
96.5%
Stone Earle pass complete to Ethan Payne for 2 yds to the STBK 39Similar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
96.5%
Stone Earle pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:02
3RD & 8
OPP 39
0
96.4%
Stone Earle pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:02
4TH & 8
OPP 39
0
96.1%
Alec Clark punt for 38 yds, downed at the STBK 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 9PUNT
12 plays · 37 yds · 4:275% → 5%
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
95.5%
Roland Dempster run for 5 yds to the STBK 6Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 5
OWN 6
+5
95.5%
Roland Dempster run for 5 yds to the STBK 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+8
95.3%
Malachi Marshall pass complete to Cole Bunicci for 8 yds to the STBK 19Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 2
OWN 19
+1
95.1%
Malachi Marshall run for 1 yd to the STBK 20Similar
Q2 11:06
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+6
95.2%
Brandon Boria run for 6 yds to the STBK 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
95.0%
Brandon Boria run for 3 yds to the STBK 29Similar
Q2 10:24
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+7
94.8%
Brandon Boria run for 7 yds to the STBK 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
94.7%
Brandon Boria run for 1 yd to the STBK 37Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+1
94.6%
Malachi Marshall run for 1 yd to the STBK 38Similar
Q2 8:42
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
94.6%
Malachi Marshall pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:30
4TH & 8
OWN 38
+11
94.8%
Clayton Taylor punt for 43 yds , Elijah Metcalf returns for 11 yds to the MRSH 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 10FG
11 plays · 42 yds · 4:0996% → 95%
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
95.5%
A.J. Turner run for 4 yds to the MRSH 34Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+9
95.6%
Stone Earle run for 9 yds to the MRSH 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
95.7%
A.J. Turner run for 5 yds to the MRSH 48Similar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+6
95.7%
A.J. Turner run for 6 yds to the STBK 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
95.7%
Stone Earle pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 13 yds to the STBK 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
95.6%
Jordan Houston run for 12 yds to the STBK 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
95.5%
Jordan Houston run for 1 yd to the STBK 20Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 9
OPP 20
-8
95.4%
Stone Earle sacked by Tyson McCloud for a loss of 8 yards to the STBK 28Similar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 17
OPP 28
0
95.1%
Jordan Houston run for no gain to the STBK 28Similar
Q2 4:17
4TH & 17
OPP 28
+45
95.0%
Rece Verhoff 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:525% → 5%
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
95.2%
Brandon Boria run for 2 yds to the STBK 24Similar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+1
95.2%
Brandon Boria run for 1 yd to the STBK 25Similar
Q2 3:01
3RD & 7
OWN 25
-11
95.3%
Malachi Marshall sacked by Mike Green for a loss of 11 yards to the STBK 14Similar
Q2 2:17
4TH & 18
OWN 14
+16
95.4%
Clayton Taylor punt for 45 yds , Elijah Metcalf returns for 16 yds to the STBK 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 12TD
5 plays · 43 yds · 0:2696% → 97%
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
96.1%
Stone Earle pass complete to Bryan Robinson for 8 yds to the STBK 35Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+4
95.9%
Ethan Payne run for 4 yds to the STBK 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
96.0%
Stone Earle run for 12 yds to the STBK 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
97.0%
Stone Earle pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 9 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:113% → 3%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
96.6%
Roland Dempster run for 1 yd to the STBK 26Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
96.6%
Roland Dempster run for no gain to the STBK 26Similar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+8
97.0%
Malachi Marshall pass complete to Jayden Cook for 8 yds to the STBK 34Similar
Q2 0:24
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
97.0%
Clayton Taylor punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Elijah Metcalf at the MRSH 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 14END OF HALF
3 plays · 26 yds · 0:2197% → 96%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
97.0%
A.J. Turner run for 11 yds to the MRSH 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
96.1%
Stone Earle pass complete to Bryan Robinson for 8 yds to the MRSH 38Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+7
96.1%
Stone Earle pass complete to Chuck Montgomery for 7 yds to the MRSH 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 15TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:1197% → 99%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
96.6%
Jordan Houston run for 6 yds to the MRSH 31Similar
Q3 14:41
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
96.6%
Stone Earle pass complete to Bryan Robinson for 5 yds to the MRSH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
96.6%
Stone Earle run for 4 yds to the MRSH 40Similar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+7
96.6%
Stone Earle pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 7 yds to the MRSH 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
96.7%
Stone Earle run for 8 yds to the STBK 45Similar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 2
OPP 45
0
96.7%
Stone Earle pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:49
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+3
96.5%
Jordan Houston run for 3 yds to the STBK 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
96.9%
Stone Earle run for 14 yds to the STBK 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
98.5%
Stone Earle pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 28 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:052% → 2%
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
98.2%
Malachi Marshall pass complete to RJ Lamarre for 7 yds to the STBK 31Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+4
98.1%
Roland Dempster run for 4 yds to the STBK 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
98.3%
Malachi Marshall run for 5 yds to the STBK 40Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
98.2%
Malachi Marshall pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:42
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
98.3%
Malachi Marshall pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:35
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
98.3%
Clayton Taylor punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Elijah Metcalf at the MRSH 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2699% → 99%
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
98.7%
A.J. Turner run for 2 yds to the MRSH 16Similar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+7
98.7%
A.J. Turner run for 7 yds to the MRSH 23Similar
Q3 9:44
3RD & 1
OWN 23
0
98.7%
Stone Earle run for no gain to the MRSH 23Similar
Q3 9:07
4TH & 1
OWN 23
0
98.6%
Alec Clark punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jasiah Williams at the STBK 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 18FG
14 plays · 39 yds · 4:472% → 2%
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
98.3%
Jayden Cook run for no gain to the STBK 39Similar
Q3 8:46
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+12
98.3%
Malachi Marshall pass complete to RJ Lamarre for 12 yds to the MRSH 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
98.3%
Malachi Marshall pass complete to Jayden Cook for 3 yds to the MRSH 46Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 7
OPP 46
-5
98.3%
Stony Brook Penalty, False Start (Jayce Freeman) to the STBK 49Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+6
98.3%
Malachi Marshall run for 6 yds to the MRSH 45Similar
Q3 7:09
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+4
98.3%
Jayden Cook run for 4 yds to the MRSH 41Similar
Q3 6:22
4TH & 2
OPP 41
+4
98.4%
Malachi Marshall run for 4 yds to the MRSH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
98.3%
Malachi Marshall pass complete to RJ Lamarre for 6 yds to the MRSH 31Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+7
98.2%
Malachi Marshall run for 7 yds to the MRSH 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
98.3%
Malachi Marshall pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-5
98.4%
Stony Brook Penalty, False Start (Collin Tunc) to the MRSH 29Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 15
OPP 29
0
98.5%
Malachi Marshall pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:54
3RD & 15
OPP 29
+7
98.6%
Malachi Marshall run for 7 yds to the MRSH 22Similar
Q3 4:15
4TH & 8
OPP 22
+39
98.3%
Enda Kirby 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 19MISSED FG
10 plays · 23 yds · 3:1499% → 99%
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
98.8%
Marshall Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MRSH 46Similar
Q3 3:32
1ST & 15
OWN 46
+3
99.1%
Braylon Braxton run for 3 yds to the MRSH 49Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 12
OWN 49
0
99.1%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:08
3RD & 12
OWN 49
+13
99.1%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 13 yds to the STBK 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
99.2%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Bryan Robinson for 7 yds to the STBK 31Similar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+7
99.2%
Braylon Braxton run for 7 yds to the STBK 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-2
99.5%
Ethan Payne run for a loss of 2 yards to the STBK 26Similar
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
99.5%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:53
3RD & 12
OPP 26
0
99.5%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:51
4TH & 12
OPP 26
+44
99.4%
Rece Verhoff 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:561% → 1%
Q3 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
98.9%
Malachi Marshall run for 3 yds to the STBK 29Similar
Q3 0:25
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+3
99.0%
Johnny Martin run for 3 yds to the STBK 32Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 4
OWN 32
0
99.0%
Malachi Marshall pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 4
OWN 32
0
99.0%
Clayton Taylor punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Elijah Metcalf at the MRSH 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 21TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:42100% → 100%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.5%
Jordan Houston run for 8 yds to the MRSH 33Similar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+67
99.9%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 67 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:530% → 0%
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.9%
Stony Brook Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the STBK 20Similar
Q4 14:07
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
99.9%
Malachi Marshall pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+1
99.9%
Roland Dempster run for 1 yd to the STBK 21Similar
Q4 13:22
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Malachi Marshall pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:14
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Clayton Taylor punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Elijah Metcalf at the MRSH 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 23TD
8 plays · 61 yds · 2:54100% → 100%
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
99.9%
Braylon Braxton run for 3 yds to the MRSH 42Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+2
99.9%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Chuck Montgomery for 2 yds to the MRSH 44Similar
Q4 11:51
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+26
99.9%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Chuck Montgomery for 26 yds to the STBK 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
99.9%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:14
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+4
99.9%
A.J. Turner run for 4 yds to the STBK 26Similar
Q4 10:35
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+19
99.9%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to A.J. Turner for 19 yds to the STBK 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
100.0%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Carl Chester for 7 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 24INT
6 plays · 45 yds · 2:510% → 0%
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
100.0%
Malachi Marshall pass complete to Jayce Freeman for 26 yds to the MRSH 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
100.0%
Brandon Boria run for 1 yd to the MRSH 48Similar
Q4 9:12
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+1
100.0%
Brandon Boria run for 1 yd to the MRSH 47Similar
Q4 8:38
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+17
100.0%
Malachi Marshall pass complete to Cole Bunicci for 17 yds to the MRSH 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
100.0%
Shakhi Carson run for no gain to the MRSH 30Similar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
100.0%
Malachi Marshall pass intercepted Jordan Reagan return for no gain to the MRSH 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 25TD
11 plays · 86 yds · 3:11100% → 100%
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
100.0%
Ethan Payne run for 8 yds to the MRSH 22Similar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+6
100.0%
Ethan Payne run for 6 yds to the MRSH 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
100.0%
(06:30) PENNINGTON, Cole pass deep to the right incomplete intended for CHESTER, Carl thrown to the MAR49, clock 06:17. PENALTY SBU Holding on SILVERA, Rudy enforced 10 yards from the MAR28 to the MAR38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
100.0%
Cole Pennington pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
100.0%
Cole Pennington run for 4 yds to the MRSH 42Similar
Q4 5:35
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+21
100.0%
Cole Pennington pass complete to Carl Chester for 21 yds to the STBK 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
100.0%
Cole Pennington pass complete to Chuck Montgomery for 9 yds to the STBK 28Similar
Q4 4:52
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+6
100.0%
Cole Pennington pass complete to Bralon Brown for 6 yds to the STBK 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
100.0%
Ethan Payne run for 6 yds to the STBK 16Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+16
100.0%
Cole Pennington pass complete to Bralon Brown for 16 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 26END OF GAME
8 plays · 17 yds · 3:250% → 0%
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
100.0%
Johnny Martin run for 5 yds to the STBK 30Similar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
100.0%
Johnny Martin run for 2 yds to the STBK 32Similar
Q4 2:13
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
100.0%
Johnny Martin run for 1 yd to the STBK 33Similar
Q4 1:58
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+4
100.0%
Shakhi Carson run for 4 yds to the STBK 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
100.0%
Shakhi Carson run for 3 yds to the STBK 40Similar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+2
100.0%
Shakhi Carson run for 2 yds to the STBK 42Similar
Q4 0:14
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
100.0%
Shakhi Carson run for no gain to the STBK 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:49
Stone Earle pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 28 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)
+1.7
TD · Q1 2:33
A.J. Turner run for 80 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)
+1.1
TD · Q2 1:38
Stone Earle pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 9 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)
+1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com