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Win probability · LIB
modelLIB aheadCAM aheadconfidence bandkey playLIB scoreCAM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:59 · Jack Brady punt for 66 yds, downed at the LIB 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 4:14: Colin Karhu 25 yd FG GOOD — LIB win probability +1.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:04: Kaidon Salter pass complete to Treon Sibley for 70 yds for a TD (Colin Karhu KICK) — LIB win probability +3.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:54: Kaidon Salter pass complete to Bentley Hanshaw for 2 yds for a TD (Colin Karhu KICK) — LIB win probability +1.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:04: Mark Biggins run for 1 yd for a TD (Connor Lytton KICK) — CAM win probability +6.6 pts (now 9%) (top driver: CAM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:22: Billy Lucas run for 5 yds for a TD (Colin Karhu KICK) — LIB win probability +3.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
LIB made the numbers' call on 2 of 4CAM made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 13:05CAM 4th & 10 at CAM 14, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.2%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.3%average punt
- Q1 8:54CAM 4th & 10 at LIB 10, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.5% before the snapGo for it1.4%−0.124% to convertField goalTheir call1.5%88% to makePunt1.0%−0.5average punt
- Q1 4:45LIB 4th & 4 at CAM 15, up 4Close callKicked a field goal · 98.0% before the snapGo for it97.9%46% to convertField goalTheir call97.9%−<0.183% to makePunt97.5%−0.4average punt
- Q1 0:24CAM 4th & 8 at LIB 39, down 4Close callPunted · 2.8% before the snapGo for it2.8%34% to convertField goal2.7%−<0.136% to makePuntTheir call2.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 4:14LIB 4th & 4 at CAM 7, down 3Close callKicked a field goal · 92.9% before the snapGo for it92.8%41% to convertField goalTheir call92.7%−0.191% to makePunt90.9%−2.0average punt
- Q2 1:45CAM 4th & 10 at CAM 46, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snapGo for it7.6%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.7%average punt
- Q2 0:14CAM 4th & 8 at CAM 27, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snapGo for it4.4%−0.433% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.8%average punt
- Q3 6:38CAM 4th & 5 at LIB 35, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.3%42% to convertField goal4.1%−0.245% to makePunt3.8%−0.5average punt
- Q3 4:37LIB 4th & 11 at CAM 16, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.7% before the snapGo for it96.0%−0.524% to convertField goalTheir call96.5%81% to makePunt94.4%−2.1average punt
- Q3 2:09LIB 4th & 12 at LIB 45, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.3% before the snapGo for it92.8%−0.823% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.6%average punt
- Q4 14:59CAM 4th & 15 at CAM 26, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.6% before the snapGo for it4.8%−1.316% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.1%average punt
- Q4 7:18CAM 4th & 8 at CAM 27, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snapGo for it1.8%−0.233% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LIB made the numbers' call on 4 of 5CAM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 11:22LIB Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.7%97% to makeGo for two98.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:33CAM Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call4.2%97% to makeGo for two4.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:04LIB Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.7%97% to makeGo for two94.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:54LIB Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.7%97% to makeGo for two96.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:04CAM Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call5.4%97% to makeGo for two5.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:22LIB Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.6%97% to makeGo for two97.4%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 4:10LIB Touchdown, up 23 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%−0.197% to makeGo for two99.6%45% to convert
- Q4 1:56CAM Touchdown, down 18 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.3%97% to makeGo for two1.3%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCAMDrive 1PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:491% → 1%
LIBDrive 2TD4 plays · 16 yds · 1:2699% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 3FG7 plays · 65 yds · 2:271% → 1%
LIBDrive 4MISSED FG11 plays · 53 yds · 3:5899% → 98%
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
98.7%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Treon Sibley for 4 yds to the LIB 36Similar
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
98.7%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Treon Sibley for 6 yds to the CAM 39Similar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+7
98.7%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Julian Gray for 7 yds to the CAM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+4
98.5%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Billy Lucas for 4 yds to the CAM 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 5PUNT9 plays · 41 yds · 4:172% → 2%
Q1 2:51
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+16
98.0%
Chad Mascoe Jr. pass complete to Chaney Fitzgerald for 16 yds to the LIB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:44
2ND & 8
OPP 39
-1
97.8%
Chad Mascoe Jr. pass complete to Aiden Valdez for a loss of 1 yard to the LIB 40Similar
Q1 0:24
4TH & 8
OPP 39
0
97.7%
Jack Brady punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Brylan Green at the LIB 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 6FUMBLE7 plays · 40 yds · 2:0798% → 97%
Q2 14:19
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+8
97.5%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Tyson Mobley for 8 yds to the LIB 39Similar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-4
97.5%
Kaidon Salter run for a loss of 4 yards to the CAM 48 Kaidon Salter fumbled, recovered by CAM Jalen Brooks J. Brooks return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
97.2%
(13:09) MASCOE, Chad pass deep to the left intercepted by REESE, Quinton at the LIB25. Reese return for 0 yards to the LIB25, End of Play, clock 13:02. PENALTY LIB Pass Interference on SWEENEY, Jayden enforced 15 yards to the LIB37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 7TD4 plays · 52 yds · 1:253% → 4%
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-9
97.2%
Chad Mascoe Jr. run for 1 yd to the LIB 36 Campbell Penalty, Offensive Holding (Sincere Brown) to the LIB 46Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 17
OPP 44
+8
97.1%
Chad Mascoe Jr. pass complete to Mark Biggins for 8 yds to the LIB 36Similar
Q2 11:33
3RD & 9
OPP 36
+36
96.1%
Chad Mascoe Jr. pass complete to Sincere Brown for 36 yds for a TD (Connor Lytton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 8FG16 plays · 79 yds · 7:0996% → 95%
Q2 10:49
3RD & 3
OWN 21
+17
95.7%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Elijah Canion for 17 yds to the LIB 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+13
95.7%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Darius Copeland for 13 yds to the CAM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:54
2ND & 6
OPP 29
-5
95.2%
(07:54) SALTER, Kaidon pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for CANION, Elijah thrown to the CAM0, clock 07:45. PENALTY LIB Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on TUCKER, Jack enforced 5 yards from the CAM29 to the CAM34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
94.5%
Kaidon Salter sacked by Paul Hutson III and Bobby Walchak for a loss of 1 yard to the CAM 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 9PUNT10 plays · 11 yds · 2:286% → 6%
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
93.7%
Chad Mascoe Jr. pass complete to Sincere Brown for 5 yds to the CAM 40Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 11
OWN 45
+1
93.4%
Chad Mascoe Jr. pass complete to Mark Biggins for 1 yd to the CAM 46Similar
Q2 1:45
4TH & 10
OWN 46
+10
93.6%
Jack Brady punt for 46 yds , Brylan Green returns for 10 yds to the LIB 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 10TD3 plays · 82 yds · 0:2894% → 97%
CAMDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:484% → 3%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 12END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
96.1%
(00:02) [NHSG] Kneel down by LIB at LIB27 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 13TD11 plays · 58 yds · 5:5896% → 97%
CAMDrive 14DOWNS7 plays · 40 yds · 2:154% → 4%
Q3 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+35
96.6%
Chad Mascoe Jr. pass complete to Hans Wisnewski for 35 yds to the LIB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 15FG5 plays · 49 yds · 1:5797% → 98%
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+50
97.0%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Elijah Canion for 50 yds to the CAM 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 13
OPP 18
-11
97.1%
Kaidon Salter run for 4 yds to the CAM 14 Liberty Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the CAM 29Similar
Q3 4:51
3RD & 24
OPP 29
+13
97.1%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Billy Lucas for 13 yds to the CAM 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 16TD4 plays · 88 yds · 1:322% → 9%
Q3 3:58
2ND & 3
OWN 19
+6
97.6%
(03:58) MASCOE, Chad pass up the middle incomplete intended for BROWN, Sincere thrown to the CAM25, clock 03:56. PENALTY LIB Pass Interference on JONES, A'Khori enforced at the spot of the foul for 6 yards to the CAM25 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+74
97.6%
Chad Mascoe Jr. pass complete to Sincere Brown for 74 yds to the LIB 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 17PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:4695% → 94%
Q3 2:09
4TH & 12
OWN 45
0
94.1%
Max Morgan punt for 41 yds , Brandon Fitez returns for no gain to the CAM 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 18PUNT4 plays · -5 yds · 1:578% → 6%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 19TD16 plays · 92 yds · 6:2196% → 99%
Q4 14:07
3RD & 8
OWN 10
+12
94.9%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Treon Sibley for 12 yds to the LIB 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:04
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+15
95.1%
Campbell Penalty, Personal Foul (Malik Willis) to the LIB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
95.6%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Treon Sibley for 17 yds to the CAM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+10
95.1%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Elijah Canion for 10 yds to the CAM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:572% → 2%
Q4 7:18
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
98.4%
Jack Brady punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Brylan Green at the LIB 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 21TD7 plays · 63 yds · 2:5999% → 100%
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
99.4%
Ryan Burger pass complete to Darius Copeland for 4 yds to the LIB 41Similar
Q4 5:07
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+15
99.4%
Campbell Penalty, Personal Foul (Jonathan Melvin) to the CAM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
99.5%
Campbell Penalty, Personal Foul (Cornelius Davis) to the CAM 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 22TD9 plays · 65 yds · 2:130% → 1%
Q4 3:26
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+15
99.7%
Liberty Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the LIB 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
99.6%
Liberty Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the LIB 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+15
99.6%
(02:55) CHANDLER II, Mike pass deep to the right incomplete intended for WILKINS, VJ thrown to the LIB0, clock 02:50. PENALTY LIB Pass Interference on BODNAR, Christian enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the LIB8 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 23END OF GAME3 plays · 14 yds · 1:2499% → 99%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:04
Mark Biggins run for 1 yd for a TD (Connor Lytton KICK)
-6.6
TD · Q2 1:04
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Treon Sibley for 70 yds for a TD (Colin Karhu KICK)
+3.3
TD · Q4 8:22
Billy Lucas run for 5 yds for a TD (Colin Karhu KICK)
+3.1