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Q3 12:54 · Taylor Morin 73 Yd Punt Return (Matthew Dennis Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
TD · Q1 2:29: Kenji Christian run for 21 yds for a TD (Andrew Brown KICK) — NCAT win probability +3.9 pts (now 28%) (top driver: NCAT has the ball).
FG · Q2 6:49: Andrew Brown 38 yd FG GOOD Wake Forest Penalty, Defensive offside (Yards) declined — NCAT win probability +4.0 pts (now 35%) (top driver: NCAT has the ball).
TD · Q2 5:00: Donavon Greene 24 Yd pass from Hank Bachmeier (Matthew Dennis Kick) — WAKE win probability +6.8 pts (now 76%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
TD · Q3 12:54: Taylor Morin 73 Yd Punt Return (Matthew Dennis Kick) — WAKE win probability +11.9 pts (now 87%) (top driver: NCAT has the ball).
TD · Q3 8:54: Tate Carney run for 2 yds to the NCAT 5 — WAKE win probability +8.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WAKE made the numbers' call on 4 of 4NCAT made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
Q1 13:45WAKE4th & 9 at WAKE 25, tied
Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.1% before the snap
Go for it
50.1%−0.1
30% to convert
Field goal
Out of range
PuntTheir call
50.2%
average punt
Q1 12:54NCAT4th & 4 at NCAT 24, tied
Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.5% before the snap
Go for it
49.5%−<0.1
47% to convert
Field goal
Out of range
PuntTheir call
49.5%
average punt
Q1 9:57NCAT4th & 6 at NCAT 26, down 7
Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.0% before the snap
Go for it
47.0%−0.1
39% to convert
Field goal
Out of range
PuntTheir call
47.1%
average punt
Q1 7:46WAKE4th & 10 at midfield, up 7
Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.8% before the snap
Go for it
53.7%−0.1
29% to convert
Field goal
Out of range
PuntTheir call
53.9%
average punt
Q1 0:21WAKE4th & 11 at WAKE 26, tied
Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.3% before the snap
Go for it
51.0%−0.7
25% to convert
Field goal
Out of range
PuntTheir call
51.7%
average punt
Q2 6:49NCAT4th & 9 at WAKE 21, tied
Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.8% before the snap
Go for it
48.6%−0.7
30% to convert
Field goalTheir call
49.3%
74% to make
Punt
44.6%−4.7
average punt
Q2 2:48NCAT4th & 4 at WAKE 42, down 4
Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 43.5% before the snap
Go for it
43.7%
48% to convert
Field goal
42.5%−1.2
30% to make
PuntTheir call
42.5%−1.1
average punt
Q2 2:48WAKE4th & 1 at NCAT 45, up 4
Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.6% before the snap
Go for itTheir call
59.6%
70% to convert
Field goal
57.5%−2.2
25% to make
Punt
57.9%−1.7
average punt
Q3 12:54NCAT4th & 13 at NCAT 33, down 7
Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.5% before the snap
Go for it
29.9%−3.4
20% to convert
Field goal
Out of range
PuntTheir call
33.2%
average punt
Q3 8:54NCAT4th & 13 at WAKE 42, down 14
Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snap
Go for it
17.7%−1.1
21% to convert
Field goal
18.0%−0.8
30% to make
PuntTheir call
18.8%
average punt
Q3 2:48NCAT4th & 4 at NCAT 37, down 28
Close callPunted · 0.5% before the snap
Go for it
0.5%
48% to convert
Field goal
Out of range
PuntTheir call
0.5%−<0.1
average punt
Q4 11:05NCAT4th & 10 at WAKE 33, down 28
Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snap
Go for it
0.1%−0.1
30% to convert
Field goalTheir call
0.2%
49% to make
Punt
0.1%−0.1
average punt
Q4 1:19NCAT4th & 13 at WAKE 41, down 32
Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
Go for itTheir call
0.1%−<0.1
21% to convert
Field goal
0.1%−<0.1
32% to make
Punt
0.1%
average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WAKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 4NCAT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
Q1 11:25WAKETouchdown, up 6 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
51.8%
97% to make
Go for two
51.7%−<0.1
45% to convert
Q1 2:29NCATTouchdown, down 1 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
47.4%
97% to make
Go for two
47.3%−<0.1
45% to convert
Q2 5:00WAKETouchdown, up 3 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
58.4%
97% to make
Go for two
58.3%−0.1
45% to convert
Q3 12:54WAKETouchdown, up 13 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
78.2%
97% to make
Go for two
78.2%−0.1
45% to convert
Q4 5:37WAKETouchdown, up 31 before the try
Close callKicked · made
KickTheir call
100.0%−<0.1
97% to make
Go for two
100.0%
45% to convert
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