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Notre Dame 49 at USC 35

USC
2024 · Week 14 · Nov 30, 2024 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:26 · Eddie Czaplicki punt for 46 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 30Home team on offense−2.7Pregame prior−14.7Score differential−0.8Garbage-time factor−1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:06: Jayden Maiava run for 1 yd for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK) — USC win probability +17.3 pts (now 52%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:27: Riley Leonard run for 2 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK) — ND win probability +15.1 pts (now 76%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:11: Riley Leonard pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 23 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK) — ND win probability +13.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:43: Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 6 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK) — USC win probability +19.7 pts (now 31%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:39: Jayden Maiava pass intercepted Christian Gray return for 99 yds for a TD USC Penalty, Block below the waist on MAIAVA, Jayden of (Jayden Maiava) to the USC 0 (Mitch Jeter KICK) — ND win probability +22.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 6 of 7ND made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 9:49USC 4th & 2 at ND 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    36.2%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    35.7%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:26USC 4th & 7 at USC 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:39ND 4th & 9 at ND 26, down 1
    Close callWent for it · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.9%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    55.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:58ND 4th & 1 at USC 42, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    53.8%−2.5
    30% to make
    Punt
    54.2%−2.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:16ND 4th & 4 at USC 9, down 1
    Close callKicked a field goal · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%
    43% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.3%−0.4
    89% to make
    Punt
    49.2%−5.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:34USC 4th & 9 at USC 21, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%−1.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:00ND 4th & 1 at ND 44, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    52.5%−1.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:06USC 4th & 8 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:23USC 4th & 3 at ND 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    30.4%−2.9
    38% to make
    Punt
    30.2%−3.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:12USC 4th & 13 at ND 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%−0.9
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    13.1%−1.0
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    14.0%
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:02ND 4th & 10 at ND 10, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%−1.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:58ND 4th & 10 at ND 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%−2.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:18USC 4th & 6 at ND 13, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%−1.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    4.4%
    85% to make
    Punt
    2.2%−2.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 3 of 4ND made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 2:28ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:07USC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:38ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:06USC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:27ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:11ND Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:43USC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:39ND Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%−0.7
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:18ND Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:13USC Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1DOWNS
10 plays · 58 yds · 5:0831% → 34%
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
31.3%
Woody Marks run for 2 yds to the USC 16Similar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+10
31.5%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 10 yds to the USC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-3
31.8%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 23Similar
Q1 13:17
2ND & 13
OWN 23
+14
32.0%
Woody Marks run for 14 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
32.4%
Woody Marks run for no gain to the USC 37Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+26
32.7%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 26 yds to the ND 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
33.4%
Woody Marks run for 1 yd to the ND 36Similar
Q1 10:31
2ND & 9
OPP 36
0
33.8%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:27
3RD & 9
OPP 36
+7
33.7%
Woody Marks run for 7 yds to the ND 29Similar
Q1 9:49
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+1
33.9%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 1 yd to the ND 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 2TD
13 plays · 72 yds · 7:1467% → 69%
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+19
33.5%
Jeremiyah Love run for 19 yds to the ND 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
33.3%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for 1 yd to the ND 48Similar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+5
33.4%
Riley Leonard run for 5 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q1 7:54
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+6
33.7%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 6 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
33.7%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 6 yds to the USC 35Similar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+6
33.6%
Riley Leonard run for 6 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
33.8%
Jeremiyah Love run for 9 yds to the USC 20Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+3
33.9%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 3 yds to the USC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
34.2%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 1 yd to the USC 16Similar
Q1 4:18
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+7
34.3%
Jeremiyah Love run for 7 yds to the USC 9Similar
Q1 3:41
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+5
34.9%
Riley Leonard run for 5 yds to the USC 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
34.6%
Riley Leonard run for 3 yds to the USC 1Similar
Q1 2:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
30.6%
Jeremiyah Love run for 1 yd for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:5732% → 32%
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
32.0%
Woody Marks run for 9 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 1
OWN 29
-5
32.7%
USC Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USC 24Similar
Q1 1:52
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+12
32.1%
Quinten Joyner run for 12 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
32.4%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:13
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
32.3%
Quinten Joyner run for 3 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q1 0:33
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
32.2%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:26
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
31.7%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 4FUMBLE
2 plays · 22 yds · 0:1968% → 69%
Q1 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
31.8%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 8 yds to the ND 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+14
31.3%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 14 yds Jayden Thomas fumbled, recovered by USC Easton Mascarenas-Arnold E. Mascarenas-Arnold return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5TD
5 plays · 37 yds · 2:4734% → 42%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
33.7%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Duce Robinson for 11 yds to the ND 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
34.4%
Jayden Maiava run for 6 yds to the ND 20Similar
Q2 13:43
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+13
34.5%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Quinten Joyner for 13 yds to the ND 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
34.7%
Quinten Joyner run for 6 yds to the ND 1Similar
Q2 12:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
41.7%
Jayden Maiava 1 Yd Run (Michael Lantz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 6MISSED FG
13 plays · 66 yds · 6:5162% → 57%
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
38.2%
Jadarian Price run for no gain to the ND 25Similar
Q2 11:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
40.8%
Riley Leonard run for 1 yd to the ND 26Similar
Q2 10:53
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
41.8%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:39
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+23
42.7%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 23 yds to the ND 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
39.4%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jadarian Price for a loss of 1 yard to the ND 48Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+1
40.4%
Jadarian Price run for 1 yd to the ND 49Similar
Q2 8:44
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+9
41.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 9 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q2 7:58
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+8
41.9%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Faison for 8 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+19
40.1%
Jeremiyah Love run for 19 yds to the USC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
40.1%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+3
40.1%
Jeremiyah Love run for 3 yds to the USC 12Similar
Q2 5:57
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+3
41.3%
Riley Leonard run for 3 yds to the USC 9Similar
Q2 5:16
4TH & 4
OPP 9
+27
43.1%
Mitch Jeter 27 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:3946% → 44%
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
45.5%
Jayden Maiava sacked by Gabriel Rubio for a loss of 5 yards to the USC 15Similar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 15
OWN 15
0
45.6%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:23
3RD & 15
OWN 15
+11
44.6%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 11 yds to the USC 26Similar
Q2 3:43
4TH & 4
OWN 26
-5
44.4%
(03:43) CZAPLICKI, Eddie punt 74 yards to the ND0, Touchback, clock 03:34. PENALTY Before the snap, USC Illegal Shift enforced 5 yards from the USC26 to the USC21. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:34
4TH & 9
OWN 21
+7
44.4%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 51 yds , Max Hurleman returns for 7 yds to the ND 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 8TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:2755% → 58%
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
44.8%
Jeremiyah Love run for 3 yds to the ND 38Similar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+4
43.8%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Eli Raridon for 4 yds to the ND 42Similar
Q2 2:15
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+2
43.7%
Jeremiyah Love run for 2 yds to the ND 44Similar
Q2 2:00
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+1
44.9%
Riley Leonard run for 1 yd to the ND 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
43.7%
Jeremiyah Love run for 8 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+15
42.4%
(01:16) LEONARD, Riley pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for HARRISON, Jayden thrown to the USC30; QB hurried by CLIFTON, Nate, clock 01:11. PENALTY USC Tripping on SHELBY, Braylan enforced 15 yards from the USC47 to the USC32 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+20
41.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for 20 yds to the USC 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
41.9%
R. Leonard pass to E. Raridon for 12 yds for a TD (M. Jeter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9TD
7 plays · 78 yds · 0:3149% → 49%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
48.7%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 7 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 3
OWN 29
0
50.0%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+9
48.2%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 9 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+35
49.0%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 35 yds to the ND 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
52.1%
(00:32) MAIAVA, Jayden pass deep to the right incomplete intended for LANE, Ja'Kobi thrown to the ND1, clock 00:27. PENALTY ND Pass Interference on GRAY, Christian enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the ND12 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
48.8%
J. Maiava pass to J. Lane for 12 yds for a TD (M. Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
40.8%
Jeremiyah Love run for 8 yds to the ND 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:2259% → 74%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
41.2%
Jeremiyah Love run for 10 yds to the ND 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
40.7%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:36
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
41.2%
Jeremiyah Love run for 6 yds to the ND 41Similar
Q3 14:02
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+19
39.4%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 19 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
38.7%
Jeremiyah Love run for 4 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q3 12:38
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+36
26.2%
Jadarian Price run for 36 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 12TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 3:2730% → 52%
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
30.1%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+30
30.0%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Duce Robinson for 30 yds to the ND 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
33.5%
Bryan Jackson run for 2 yds to the ND 45Similar
Q3 11:18
2ND & 8
OPP 45
0
33.6%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:12
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+15
32.6%
(11:12) MAIAVA, Jayden pass deep to the left incomplete intended for LEMON, Makai thrown to the ND15, clock 11:07. PENALTY ND Pass Interference on GRAY, Christian enforced 15 yards to the ND30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
35.0%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Walker Lyons for 11 yds to the ND 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+14
35.0%
Quinten Joyner run for 14 yds to the ND 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
35.1%
Quinten Joyner run for 4 yds to the ND 1Similar
Q3 9:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
52.4%
Jayden Maiava run for 1 yd for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:3956% → 76%
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
44.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for 17 yds to the ND 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
41.7%
Riley Leonard run for 9 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+15
40.2%
USC Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Greedy Vance Jr.) to the USC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+24
39.2%
Riley Leonard run for 24 yds to the USC 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
39.3%
Jadarian Price run for 2 yds to the USC 2Similar
Q3 6:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
24.1%
Riley Leonard run for 2 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:1431% → 29%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
30.8%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:16
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+8
30.5%
Jayden Maiava run for 8 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q3 5:35
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+4
32.6%
Quinten Joyner run for 4 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
32.9%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
32.5%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:46
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+2
30.4%
Bryan Jackson run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:06
4TH & 8
50
0
29.4%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15INT
2 plays · 16 yds · 0:3773% → 76%
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
26.7%
Jadarian Price run for 16 yds to the ND 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-15
24.5%
Riley Leonard pass intercepted John Humphrey return for 15 yds to the ND 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:4534% → 32%
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
34.0%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 7 yds to the ND 38Similar
Q3 2:33
2ND & 3
OPP 38
0
34.1%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:28
3RD & 3
OPP 38
0
33.8%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:23
4TH & 3
OPP 38
0
31.7%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 17TD
3 plays · 62 yds · 1:0676% → 90%
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
23.7%
Jadarian Price run for 4 yds to the ND 42Similar
Q3 1:44
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+35
23.5%
Jadarian Price run for 35 yds to the USC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
10.4%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 23 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 37 yds · 1:5213% → 13%
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
13.4%
Quinten Joyner run for 11 yds to the USC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
13.5%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:21
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
13.1%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:17
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+29
12.8%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Kyle Ford for 29 yds to the ND 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-3
15.4%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for a loss of 3 yards to the ND 46Similar
Q4 14:21
2ND & 13
OPP 46
0
14.4%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 13
OPP 46
0
13.9%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:12
4TH & 13
OPP 46
0
13.3%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Max Hurleman at the ND 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 2:0490% → 91%
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
9.9%
Jadarian Price run for 3 yds to the ND 13Similar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+1
9.5%
Jadarian Price run for 1 yd to the ND 14Similar
Q4 12:43
3RD & 6
OWN 14
-4
9.5%
Riley Leonard sacked by Kameryn Fountain for a loss of 4 yards to the ND 10Similar
Q4 12:02
4TH & 10
OWN 10
+7
9.2%
James Rendell punt for 42 yds , Zachariah Branch returns for 7 yds to the ND 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20TD
7 plays · 45 yds · 3:0914% → 31%
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+24
14.3%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 24 yds to the ND 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+19
14.9%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 19 yds to the ND 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
12.9%
Quinten Joyner run for 1 yd to the ND 1Similar
Q4 9:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
12.8%
USC Penalty, False Start (Lake McRee) to the ND 5Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
11.0%
Jake Jensen run for a loss of 1 yard to the ND 6Similar
Q4 8:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
30.7%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 6 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 8:4380% → 92%
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
19.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Faison for 5 yds to the ND 30Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
19.1%
Jadarian Price run for 2 yds to the ND 32Similar
Q4 7:28
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+10
19.5%
(07:28) LEONARD, Riley pass deep to the left incomplete intended for FAISON, Jordan thrown to the USC45, clock 07:22. PENALTY USC Holding on COVINGTON, Jacobe enforced 10 yards from the ND32 to the ND42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
18.6%
Jadarian Price run for 5 yds to the ND 33Similar
Q4 6:47
2ND & 5
OWN 33
-5
17.9%
Riley Leonard sacked by Jamil Muhammad for a loss of 5 yards to the ND 28Similar
Q4 6:01
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
17.2%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:58
4TH & 10
OWN 28
+4
18.3%
James Rendell punt for 60 yds , Zachariah Branch returns for 4 yds to the USC 16Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-14
7.9%
Notre Dame Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (TEAM) to the ND 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 22INT TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 2:0821% → 5%
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+16
20.8%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 16 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
21.6%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Lake McRee for 2 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
21.6%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+22
20.8%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Duce Robinson for 22 yds to the ND 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+23
26.7%
Quinten Joyner run for 23 yds to the ND 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-99
4.8%
Jayden Maiava pass intercepted Christian Gray return for 99 yds for a TD USC Penalty, Block below the waist on MAIAVA, Jayden of (Jayden Maiava) to the USC 0 (Mitch Jeter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 23INT TD
9 plays · 62 yds · 2:214% → 1%
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
3.8%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 34 yds to the ND 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
3.9%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Kyle Ford for 8 yds to the ND 33Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+5
4.4%
Quinten Joyner run for 5 yds to the ND 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
4.4%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 11 yds to the ND 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
3.3%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+4
3.2%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Kyle Ford for 4 yds to the ND 13Similar
Q4 1:36
3RD & 6
OPP 13
0
3.1%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:18
4TH & 6
OPP 13
-100
0.9%
Jayden Maiava pass intercepted Xavier Watts return for 100 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 24TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:051% → 3%
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
0.7%
Bryan Jackson run for 12 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
0.8%
Bryan Jackson run for 11 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+23
0.8%
Bryan Jackson run for 23 yds to the ND 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+21
1.0%
Bryan Jackson run for 21 yds to the ND 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
2.9%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 8 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
1.6%
(00:13) Kneel down by TEAM at ND23 (team loss of 2), clock 00:03.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:39
Jayden Maiava pass intercepted Christian Gray return for 99 yds for a TD USC Penalty, Block below the waist on MAIAVA, Jayden of (Jayden Maiava) to the USC 0 (Mitch Jeter KICK)
-22
TD · Q4 8:43
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 6 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)
+19.7
TD · Q3 9:06
Jayden Maiava run for 1 yd for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)
+17.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com