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FRES

Fresno State 13 at UCLA 20

UCLA
2024 · Week 14 · Nov 30, 2024 · Rose Bowl
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Win probability · UCLA
modelUCLA aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playUCLA scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:01 · Clay Lawrence punt for 49 yds , Logan Loya returns for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 132Pregame prior+2.3Home team on offense+4.9Garbage-time factor+0.3Score differential+1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.9Blowout margin+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:29: Mikey Keene pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 7 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +8.4 pts (now 42%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:43: T.J. Harden run for 5 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK) — UCLA win probability +13.1 pts (now 71%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 1:38: Ethan Garbers pass complete to J.Michael Sturdivant for 2 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK) — UCLA win probability +12.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 0:31: Dylan Lynch 42 yd FG GOOD — FRES win probability +12.1 pts (now 21%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:28: (00:28) Kneel down by TEAM at FSU49 (team loss of 2), clock 00:23. — UCLA win probability +18.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCLA made the numbers' call on 5 of 8FRES made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 9:55UCLA 4th & 13 at FRES 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    69.4%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    69.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:12FRES 4th & 7 at FRES 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:36UCLA 4th & 4 at FRES 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.8%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    67.2%−1.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:27FRES 4th & 1 at FRES 23, down 3
    Close callPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.8%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:15UCLA 4th & 15 at UCLA 46, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:51UCLA 4th & 20 at FRES 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%−1.3
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.9%
    72% to make
    Punt
    64.9%−3.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:52UCLA 4th & 8 at FRES 46, down 1
    Close callPunted · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    61.2%−1.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.2%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:32FRES 4th & 17 at FRES 29, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−2.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:24UCLA 4th & 7 at UCLA 40, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:14FRES 4th & 4 at UCLA 38, up 1
    Close callWent for it · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.9%−0.8
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    42.7%
    38% to make
    Punt
    40.9%−1.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:44FRES 4th & 10 at FRES 14, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%−2.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:37FRES 4th & 3 at FRES 44, down 3
    Close callPunted · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.1%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:28UCLA 4th & 1 at FRES 9, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    65.4%−4.6
    89% to make
    Punt
    53.2%−16.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:45FRES 4th & 10 at UCLA 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:30UCLA 4th & 3 at UCLA 39, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.9%−2.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:01FRES 4th & 2 at FRES 28, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%−1.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCLA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2FRES made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 7:29FRES Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 11:43UCLA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 1:38UCLA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCLADrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 30 yds · 4:5468% → 67%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
67.5%
T.J. Harden run for 6 yds to the UCLA 30Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+2
67.5%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to J.Michael Sturdivant for 2 yds to the UCLA 32Similar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 2
OWN 32
-5
67.4%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCLA 27Similar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+19
67.3%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Logan Loya for 19 yds to the UCLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
67.5%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Moliki Matavao for 11 yds to the FRES 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
67.6%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FRES 48Similar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+3
67.5%
Ethan Garbers run for 3 yds to the FRES 45Similar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+4
67.4%
Keegan Jones run for 4 yds to the FRES 41Similar
Q1 10:26
3RD & 8
OPP 41
-5
67.5%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FRES 46Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 13
OPP 46
0
67.1%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:55
4TH & 13
OPP 46
0
66.8%
Brody Richter punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:3433% → 33%
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+15
67.0%
UCLA Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the FRES 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
66.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Bryson Donelson for 1 yd to the FRES 27Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+2
66.7%
Bryson Donelson run for 2 yds to the FRES 29Similar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 7
OWN 29
0
66.8%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:12
4TH & 7
OWN 29
0
67.0%
Clay Lawrence punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Logan Loya at the UCLA 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 3FG
10 plays · 58 yds · 3:2967% → 68%
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
67.0%
Keegan Jones run for 4 yds to the UCLA 42Similar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
67.2%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+13
66.8%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Moliki Matavao for 13 yds to the FRES 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
67.3%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+10
67.3%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 10 yds to the FRES 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+26
67.5%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Moliki Matavao for 26 yds Moliki Matavao fumbled, recovered by UCLA for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
67.5%
T.J. Harden run for 5 yds to the FRES 4Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
67.5%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
67.1%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+23
67.5%
Mateen Bhaghani 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0232% → 32%
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
67.6%
Mikey Keene run for 2 yds to the FRES 16Similar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+6
67.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 6 yds to the FRES 22Similar
Q1 3:12
3RD & 2
OWN 22
+1
67.8%
Elijah Gilliam run for 1 yd to the FRES 23Similar
Q1 2:27
4TH & 1
OWN 23
0
67.8%
Clay Lawrence punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Logan Loya at the UCLA 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 3:0568% → 66%
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
67.5%
Keegan Jones run for 2 yds to the UCLA 42Similar
Q1 1:41
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+2
67.6%
Keegan Jones run for 2 yds to the UCLA 44Similar
Q1 0:58
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+7
67.2%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Kwazi Gilmer for 7 yds to the FRES 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
68.0%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:23
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+3
67.8%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to T.J. Harden for 3 yds to the FRES 46Similar
Q2 14:59
3RD & 7
OPP 46
-8
67.7%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to T.J. Harden for a loss of 8 yards to the UCLA 46Similar
Q2 14:15
4TH & 15
OWN 46
+7
65.7%
Brody Richter punt for 49 yds , Jalen Moss returns for 7 yds to the FRES 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 6FG
4 plays · -10 yds · 1:1068% → 70%
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
68.4%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:53
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
68.4%
Keegan Jones run for no gain to the FRES 12Similar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 10
OPP 12
-10
67.9%
Ethan Garbers sacked by Phoenix Jackson for a loss of 10 yards to the FRES 22Similar
Q2 12:51
4TH & 20
OPP 22
+40
69.5%
Mateen Bhaghani 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7TD
14 plays · 76 yds · 4:5231% → 42%
Q2 12:21
1ST & 9
OWN 24
+5
68.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 5 yds to the FRES 29Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 4
OWN 29
-1
68.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 28Similar
Q2 11:32
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+9
69.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 9 yds to the FRES 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
68.5%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+7
68.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Bryson Donelson for 7 yds to the FRES 44Similar
Q2 10:21
3RD & 3
OWN 44
0
67.7%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:16
4TH & 3
OWN 44
+15
69.0%
UCLA Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Anthony Adkins) to the UCLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-3
67.2%
Mikey Keene sacked by Kain Medrano for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 43Similar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 13
OPP 43
+15
67.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Richie Anderson for 15 yds to the UCLA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
66.0%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+20
66.2%
Mac Dalena run for 20 yds to the UCLA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
66.8%
Joshua Wood pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
66.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 1 yd to the UCLA 7Similar
Q2 7:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
58.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 7 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 3:3662% → 61%
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
62.0%
Keegan Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 24Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
61.7%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+28
60.6%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 28 yds to the FRES 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-3
64.4%
Keegan Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 49Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 13
OWN 49
-7
62.3%
Ethan Garbers sacked by Dean Clark for a loss of 7 yards to the UCLA 42Similar
Q2 4:34
3RD & 20
OWN 42
+12
60.7%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Moliki Matavao for 12 yds to the FRES 46Similar
Q2 3:52
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
60.7%
Brody Richter punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1241% → 39%
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
59.2%
UCLA Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the FRES 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
58.2%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
58.6%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:10
3RD & 10
OWN 36
-7
59.7%
Mikey Keene sacked by Carson Schwesinger for a loss of 7 yards to the FRES 29Similar
Q2 2:32
4TH & 17
OWN 29
0
60.8%
Clay Lawrence punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Logan Loya at the UCLA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:0361% → 59%
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
60.5%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+13
60.2%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Jack Pedersen for 13 yds to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
61.1%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
60.8%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Anthony Frias II for 4 yds to the UCLA 41Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 6
OWN 41
-1
61.5%
Ethan Garbers sacked by Jacob Holmes and Devo Bridges for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 40Similar
Q2 1:24
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
58.9%
Brody Richter punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jalen Moss at the FRES 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11FG
11 plays · 60 yds · 1:1642% → 52%
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+24
57.9%
Bryson Donelson run for 24 yds to the FRES 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
56.7%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+6
57.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 6 yds to the FRES 40Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+5
55.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Bryson Donelson for 5 yds to the FRES 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
55.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Bryson Donelson for 11 yds to the UCLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
53.8%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+2
54.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Elijah Gilliam for 2 yds to the UCLA 42Similar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+4
54.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Bryson Donelson for 4 yds to the UCLA 38Similar
Q2 0:14
4TH & 4
OPP 38
+8
55.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 8 yds to the UCLA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+48
48.3%
Dylan Lynch 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:0846% → 44%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-5
54.4%
(14:52) KEENE, Mikey pass short to the left complete for 4 yards to SHARPE, Raylen caught at the FSU16 and advanced to the FSU18 (MOORE, Kaylin), clock 14:46. PENALTY Before the snap, FSU Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the FSU14 to the FSU9. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:29
1ST & 15
OWN 9
0
54.6%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:28
2ND & 15
OWN 9
0
54.9%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:24
3RD & 15
OWN 9
+5
56.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 5 yds to the FRES 14Similar
Q3 13:44
4TH & 10
OWN 14
0
56.3%
Clay Lawrence punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Logan Loya at the UCLA 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 13TD
4 plays · 56 yds · 1:5358% → 71%
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
57.8%
T.J. Harden run for 7 yds to the FRES 49Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+9
58.3%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Kwazi Gilmer for 9 yds to the FRES 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+35
58.1%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Moliki Matavao for 35 yds to the FRES 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
71.2%
T.J. Harden run for 5 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 3:0433% → 34%
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
66.6%
Bryson Donelson run for 4 yds to the FRES 29Similar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
65.9%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:04
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
67.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 8 yds to the FRES 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
65.5%
(10:44) KEENE, Mikey pass to the right complete for 2 yards to DONELSON, Bryson caught at the FSU31 and advanced to the FSU39 (OLADEJO, Oluwafemi), out of bounds, clock 10:38. PENALTY FSU Holding on PENRIGHT, Toreon enforced 10 yards from the FSU37 to the FSU27 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:27
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+3
66.6%
Bryson Donelson run for 3 yds to the FRES 30Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 17
OWN 30
+4
66.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Bryson Donelson for 4 yds to the FRES 34Similar
Q3 9:20
3RD & 13
OWN 34
+10
68.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jake Tarwater for 10 yds to the FRES 44Similar
Q3 8:37
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
66.1%
Clay Lawrence punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Logan Loya at the UCLA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 15DOWNS
11 plays · 66 yds · 7:0068% → 69%
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
68.0%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Kwazi Gilmer for 13 yds to the UCLA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
69.4%
Anthony Frias II run for 8 yds to the UCLA 46Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+4
70.8%
Anthony Frias II run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
50
+1
71.1%
Ethan Garbers run for 1 yd to the FRES 49Similar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+8
71.1%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Moliki Matavao for 8 yds to the FRES 41Similar
Q3 4:50
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+6
70.7%
Anthony Frias II run for 6 yds to the FRES 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+17
72.3%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Kwazi Gilmer for 17 yds to the FRES 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
72.3%
Anthony Frias II run for 4 yds to the FRES 14Similar
Q3 2:46
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+4
72.4%
Anthony Frias II run for 4 yds to the FRES 10Similar
Q3 2:05
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+1
70.9%
Anthony Frias II run for 1 yd to the FRES 9Similar
Q3 1:28
4TH & 1
OPP 9
0
69.2%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 43 yds · 3:4031% → 30%
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
68.7%
Johnathan Arceneaux run for 7 yds to the FRES 16Similar
Q3 1:01
2ND & 3
OWN 16
-2
68.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Bryson Donelson for a loss of 2 yards to the FRES 14Similar
Q3 0:18
3RD & 5
OWN 14
+38
70.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Chedon James for 38 yds to the UCLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
63.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 2 yds to the UCLA 46Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 8
OPP 46
-10
64.2%
(14:18) KEENE, Mikey pass to the right incomplete thrown to the UCLA50; QB hurried by TOIA, Jay, clock 14:14. PENALTY FSU Holding on DONELSON, Bryson enforced 10 yards from the UCLA46 to the FSU44 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 18
OWN 44
+6
68.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Bryson Donelson for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:27
3RD & 12
50
+2
68.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 2 yds to the UCLA 48Similar
Q4 12:45
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
69.8%
Clay Lawrence punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Logan Loya at the UCLA 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 3:0971% → 72%
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
70.9%
Anthony Frias II run for 3 yds to the UCLA 11Similar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+21
71.1%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Logan Loya for 21 yds to the UCLA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
72.2%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Kwazi Gilmer for 3 yds to the UCLA 35Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 7
OWN 35
-5
73.4%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Sam Yoon) to the UCLA 30Similar
Q4 10:27
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+9
72.4%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Moliki Matavao for 9 yds to the UCLA 39Similar
Q4 9:37
3RD & 3
OWN 39
0
74.4%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:30
4TH & 3
OWN 39
0
72.1%
Brody Richter punt for 61 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1831% → 29%
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
68.7%
Bryson Donelson run for 2 yds to the FRES 22Similar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
69.0%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:44
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+6
70.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Elijah Gilliam for 6 yds to the FRES 28Similar
Q4 8:01
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+49
70.9%
Clay Lawrence punt for 49 yds , Logan Loya returns for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 19TD
19 plays · 78 yds · 6:1273% → 98%
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
73.2%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+14
72.9%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Anthony Frias II for 14 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
74.3%
Ethan Garbers run for 9 yds to the UCLA 45Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+7
77.4%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 7 yds to the FRES 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
78.2%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:46
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+4
77.8%
Anthony Frias II run for 4 yds to the FRES 44Similar
Q4 4:58
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+15
78.4%
GARBERS, Ethan pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for MOKIAO-ATIMALALA, Titus thrown to the FSU22, clock 04:58 (After official review, play stands as called on the field). PENALTY FSU Roughing the Passer on NOMURA, Tuasivi enforced 15 yards from the FSU44 to the FSU29 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
80.3%
Anthony Frias II run for 1 yd to the FRES 28Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+6
84.0%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Moliki Matavao for 6 yds to the FRES 22Similar
Q4 3:36
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+7
82.4%
Ethan Garbers run for 7 yds to the FRES 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
87.5%
Anthony Frias II run for no gain to the FRES 15Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+6
88.5%
Anthony Frias II run for 6 yds to the FRES 9Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+5
88.4%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Kwazi Gilmer for 5 yds to the FRES 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
89.7%
Anthony Frias II run for 1 yd to the FRES 3Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
90.5%
Anthony Frias II run for 1 yd to the FRES 2Similar
Q4 1:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.7%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to J.Michael Sturdivant for 2 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20FG
7 plays · 51 yds · 1:066% → 21%
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
94.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Richie Anderson for 8 yds to the FRES 33Similar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
92.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Bryson Donelson for 8 yds to the FRES 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
93.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 14 yds to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
92.2%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+21
92.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 21 yds fumbled, forced by Ramon Henderson, recovered by FRES Mac Dalena M. Dalena return for 0 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
90.9%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+42
78.8%
Dylan Lynch 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 21END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
97.2%
(00:28) Kneel down by TEAM at FSU49 (team loss of 2), clock 00:23.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:28
(00:28) Kneel down by TEAM at FSU49 (team loss of 2), clock 00:23.
+18.4
TD · Q3 11:43
T.J. Harden run for 5 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)
+13.1
FG · Q4 0:31
Dylan Lynch 42 yd FG GOOD
-12.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com