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MD

Maryland 7 at Penn State 44

PSU
2024 · Week 14 · Nov 30, 2024 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadMD aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreMD score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:17 · Bryce McFerson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Zion Tracy at the PSU 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 14Pregame prior+43.6Home team on offense−0.5Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:53: Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK) — PSU win probability +1.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:11: Drew Allar run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK) — PSU win probability +1.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:53: Beau Pribula 1 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick) — PSU win probability +2.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:46: Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 7 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK) — PSU win probability +2.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:14: Nicholas Singleton run for 18 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK) — PSU win probability +0.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10MD made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 12:47PSU 4th & 10 at MD 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.8%
    51% to make
    Punt
    93.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:17MD 4th & 7 at MD 28, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:13PSU 4th & 15 at PSU 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:20MD 4th & 18 at MD 22, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%−0.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:57PSU 4th & 4 at PSU 42, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.4%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.4%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:26MD 4th & 21 at MD 16, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−0.6
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:27PSU 4th & 1 at MD 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    89.7%−0.5
    54% to make
    Punt
    89.5%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:19PSU 4th & 1 at MD 20, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    88.8%−0.4
    75% to make
    Punt
    87.4%−1.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:50MD 4th & 1 at MD 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.9%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q2 9:12MD 4th & 8 at MD 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:08MD 4th & 16 at midfield, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:49PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 42, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    97.7%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:42PSU 4th & 9 at MD 44, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    98.1%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:47MD 4th & 19 at MD 9, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:55MD 4th & 4 at MD 42, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:51PSU 4th & 4 at PSU 19, up 31
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:57MD 4th & 1 at MD 48, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:46PSU 4th & 1 at MD 12, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:00PSU 4th & 12 at MD 15, up 31
    Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    100.0%
    83% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MD made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 14:46MD Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:53PSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:11PSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:53PSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:46PSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:14PSU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1FUMBLE
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.9%
Nicholas Singleton run for no gain to the PSU 25 Nicholas Singleton fumbled, recovered by MD Tommy Akingbesote T. Akingbesote return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 2TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
95.8%
MJ Morris pass complete to Kaden Prather for 25 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:4896% → 95%
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
95.8%
Tyler Warren run for 1 yd to the MD 31Similar
Q1 14:13
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+5
95.7%
Drew Allar pass complete to Omari Evans for 5 yds to the MD 26Similar
Q1 13:21
3RD & 4
OPP 26
-6
95.5%
Kaytron Allen run for a loss of 6 yards to the MD 32 Kaytron Allen fumbled, recovered by PSU Kaytron Allen K. Allen return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q1 12:47
4TH & 10
OPP 32
+49
95.4%
Ryan Barker 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 3:255% → 6%
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
95.4%
Roman Hemby run for 3 yds to the MD 17Similar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+6
95.3%
MJ Morris pass complete to Tai Felton for 6 yds to the MD 23Similar
Q1 11:26
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+2
95.1%
MJ Morris run for 2 yds to the MD 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
95.0%
MJ Morris pass complete to Roman Hemby for 2 yds to the MD 27Similar
Q1 10:22
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
94.8%
Maryland Penalty, False Start (Ruben Hyppolite II) to the MD 22Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
94.8%
MJ Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:59
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+6
94.8%
MJ Morris pass complete to Dylan Wade for 6 yds to the MD 28Similar
Q1 9:17
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
94.6%
Bryce McFerson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Zion Tracy at the PSU 30Similar
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
94.5%
(09:16) ALLAR, Drew pass up the middle complete for 18 yards to WARREN, Tyler caught at the PSU38 and advanced to the PSU48 (HUSKEY, Jalen), clock 09:05. PENALTY PSU Holding on DAWKINS, Nick enforced 10 yards from the PSU30 to the PSU20 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:2494% → 94%
Q1 8:37
1ST & 20
OWN 20
+5
94.3%
Drew Allar pass complete to Liam Clifford for 5 yds to the PSU 25Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 15
OWN 25
0
94.2%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 15
OWN 25
0
94.2%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:13
4TH & 15
OWN 25
0
94.1%
Riley Thompson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Tai Felton at the MD 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:486% → 6%
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
94.2%
Nolan Ray run for 8 yds to the MD 38Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 2
OWN 38
-11
93.9%
MJ Morris sacked by Abdul Carter for a loss of 11 yards to the MD 27Similar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 13
OWN 27
-5
93.9%
MJ Morris sacked by Zane Durant and Amin Vanover for a loss of 5 yards to the MD 22Similar
Q1 6:20
4TH & 18
OWN 22
+11
93.8%
Bryce McFerson punt for 53 yds , Zion Tracy returns for 11 yds to the PSU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1094% → 93%
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
93.6%
Kaytron Allen run for 4 yds to the PSU 40Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+2
93.6%
Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the PSU 42Similar
Q1 4:59
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
93.3%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:57
4TH & 4
OWN 42
-6
93.1%
Riley Thompson punt for 46 yds , Tai Felton returns for a loss of 6 yards to the MD 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 1:147% → 7%
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
93.1%
Roman Hemby run for 1 yd to the MD 28Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 9
OWN 28
0
92.9%
MJ Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:08
3RD & 9
OWN 28
-12
93.0%
MJ Morris sacked by Zion Tracy for a loss of 12 yards to the MD 16Similar
Q1 3:26
4TH & 21
OWN 16
0
92.9%
Bryce McFerson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Zion Tracy at the PSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9TD
14 plays · 60 yds · 5:3293% → 92%
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+20
92.9%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 20 yds to the MD 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
92.9%
Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the MD 39Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+6
92.8%
Drew Allar run for 6 yds to the MD 33Similar
Q1 2:02
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+2
92.5%
Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the MD 31Similar
Q1 1:27
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+2
92.1%
Drew Allar run for 2 yds to the MD 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
92.3%
Drew Allar pass complete to Khalil Dinkins for no gain to the MD 29Similar
Q1 0:27
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
92.1%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:24
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+9
91.8%
Tyler Warren pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 9 yds to the MD 20Similar
Q2 14:19
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+1
91.2%
Drew Allar run for 1 yd to the MD 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
91.6%
Nicholas Singleton run for 7 yds to the MD 12Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 3
OPP 12
-1
91.5%
Nicholas Singleton run for a loss of 1 yard to the MD 13Similar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+8
91.0%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 8 yds to the MD 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
91.2%
(13:00) ALLAR, Drew pass short to the right incomplete intended for WARREN, Tyler thrown to the UMD0, clock 12:58. PENALTY UMD Pass Interference on TRADER JR., Dante enforced 3 yards to the UMD2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
92.4%
Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 10DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:568% → 9%
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
91.9%
Roman Hemby run for 3 yds to the MD 24Similar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+4
91.7%
Roman Hemby run for 4 yds to the MD 28Similar
Q2 11:31
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+2
91.5%
MJ Morris pass complete to Roman Hemby for 2 yds to the MD 30Similar
Q2 10:50
4TH & 1
OWN 30
0
91.5%
Roman Hemby run for no gain to the MD 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11TD
3 plays · 30 yds · 0:3392% → 94%
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+23
91.9%
Drew Allar pass complete to Khalil Dinkins for 23 yds to the MD 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
91.8%
Kaytron Allen run for 6 ydsSimilar
Q2 10:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.6%
Drew Allar run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:297% → 7%
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
93.1%
Nolan Ray run for 2 yds to the MD 28Similar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 8
OWN 28
0
93.0%
MJ Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:21
3RD & 8
OWN 28
0
93.3%
MJ Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:12
4TH & 8
OWN 28
0
93.4%
Bryce McFerson punt for 32 yds, downed at the PSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13TD
5 plays · 60 yds · 2:1193% → 96%
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
93.2%
Nicholas Singleton run for 9 yds to the PSU 49Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+29
93.2%
Tyler Warren run for 29 yds to the MD 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
93.2%
Nicholas Singleton run for 3 yds to the MD 19Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+18
93.2%
Nicholas Singleton run for 18 yds to the MD 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.1%
Beau Pribula 1 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 14INT
5 plays · 24 yds · 2:265% → 5%
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
95.4%
MJ Morris pass complete to Braeden Wisloski for 9 yds to the MD 29Similar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+14
95.1%
Roman Hemby run for 14 yds to the MD 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
95.1%
Roman Hemby run for no gain to the MD 43Similar
Q2 4:58
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+1
95.2%
Roman Hemby run for 1 yd to the MD 44Similar
Q2 4:17
3RD & 9
OWN 44
0
95.2%
MJ Morris pass intercepted Audavion Collins return for no gain to the MD 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15TD
7 plays · 46 yds · 1:2096% → 98%
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
96.2%
Kaytron Allen run for 4 yds to the MD 42Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+1
96.1%
Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd to the MD 41Similar
Q2 2:14
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+6
96.0%
Kaytron Allen run for 6 yds to the MD 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+24
96.3%
Drew Allar pass complete to Omari Evans for 24 yds to the MD 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
95.9%
Kaytron Allen run for 4 yds to the MD 7Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+7
97.9%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 7 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 16INT
6 plays · 52 yds · 0:353% → 3%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
97.2%
MJ Morris pass complete to Nolan Ray for 10 yds to the MD 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
97.1%
MJ Morris run for no gain to the MD 35Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+31
97.4%
MJ Morris pass complete to Tai Felton for 16 yds to the PSU 49 for a 1ST down Penn State Penalty, Personal Foul (Jaylen Reed) to the PSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
96.9%
MJ Morris pass complete to Dylan Wade for 11 yds to the PSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
96.8%
MJ Morris pass intercepted Tony Rojas return for no gain to the PSU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17MISSED FG
10 plays · 55 yds · 1:0698% → 98%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
98.1%
Drew Allar pass complete to Julian Fleming for 5 yds to the PSU 14Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+6
98.1%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 6 yds to the PSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
98.1%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 5 yds to the PSU 25Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
98.1%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+7
98.1%
Drew Allar run for 7 yds to the PSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
98.1%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+13
98.1%
Drew Allar pass complete to Khalil Dinkins for 13 yds to the PSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
98.1%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+19
98.1%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 19 yds to the MD 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+53
98.2%
Ryan Barker 53 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 3:503% → 2%
Q3 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
97.5%
Roman Hemby run for 9 yds to the MD 34Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
97.3%
Roman Hemby run for 3 yds to the MD 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
97.4%
MJ Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+19
97.2%
Roman Hemby run for 19 yds to the PSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
97.5%
Roman Hemby run for no gain to the PSU 44Similar
Q3 12:33
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-7
97.7%
MJ Morris sacked by Abdul Carter for a loss of 7 yards to the MD 49Similar
Q3 11:46
3RD & 17
OWN 49
+1
97.9%
MJ Morris pass complete to Tai Felton for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:08
4TH & 16
50
0
98.2%
Bryce McFerson punt for 35 yds, downed at the PSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19PUNT
14 plays · 41 yds · 6:1898% → 98%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
98.0%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:54
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+8
98.0%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 8 yds to the PSU 23Similar
Q3 10:06
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+10
98.1%
Kaytron Allen run for 10 yds to the PSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
98.1%
Kaytron Allen run for 7 yds to the PSU 40Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 3
OWN 40
-2
98.2%
Kaytron Allen run for a loss of 2 yards to the PSU 38Similar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+4
98.3%
Drew Allar run for 4 yds to the PSU 42Similar
Q3 7:49
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+2
98.1%
Drew Allar run for 2 yds to the PSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
98.3%
Kaytron Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the PSU 43Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 11
OWN 43
-5
98.3%
Penn State Penalty, False Start (Omari Evans) to the PSU 38Similar
Q3 6:32
2ND & 16
OWN 38
+17
98.3%
Drew Allar pass complete to Omari Evans for 17 yds to the MD 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
98.6%
Kaytron Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the MD 46Similar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 11
OPP 46
0
98.6%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:20
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+2
98.6%
Tyler Warren run for 2 yds to the MD 44Similar
Q3 4:42
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
98.4%
Riley Thompson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tai Felton at the MD 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 2:501% → 1%
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
98.6%
Nolan Ray run for 1 yd to the MD 8Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 9
OWN 8
+10
98.7%
Champ Long pass complete to Preston Howard for 10 yds to the MD 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
98.6%
Nolan Ray run for no gain to the MD 18Similar
Q3 2:34
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
98.7%
Champ Long pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:26
3RD & 10
OWN 18
-9
98.8%
Champ Long sacked by Dani Dennis-Sutton for a loss of 9 yards to the MD 9Similar
Q3 1:47
4TH & 19
OWN 9
0
98.9%
Bryce McFerson punt for 43 yds, downed at the PSU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21TD
6 plays · 52 yds · 2:2799% → 100%
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
98.9%
Nicholas Singleton run for 9 yds to the MD 43Similar
Q3 1:18
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+2
99.0%
Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the MD 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
99.0%
Drew Allar pass complete to Omari Evans for 3 yds to the MD 38Similar
Q3 0:09
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+17
99.0%
Nicholas Singleton run for 17 yds to the MD 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
99.1%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 3 yds to the MD 18Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+18
99.9%
Nicholas Singleton run for 18 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:170% → 0%
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
MJ Morris pass complete to Tai Felton for 4 yds to the MD 29Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
99.9%
Roman Hemby run for 7 yds to the MD 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
99.9%
MJ Morris pass complete to Preston Howard for 2 yds to the MD 38Similar
Q4 12:36
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+4
99.9%
MJ Morris run for 4 yds to the MD 42Similar
Q4 12:02
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
99.9%
MJ Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:55
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
99.9%
Bryce McFerson punt for 45 yds , Tyseer Denmark returns for no gain to the PSU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:51100% → 100%
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
99.9%
Quinton Martin Jr. run for no gain to the PSU 13Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 10
OWN 13
-8
99.9%
Beau Pribula run for a loss of 8 yards to the PSU 5 Beau Pribula fumbled, recovered by PSU Beau Pribula B. Pribula return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q4 10:29
3RD & 18
OWN 5
+14
99.9%
Beau Pribula run for 14 yds to the PSU 19Similar
Q4 9:51
4TH & 4
OWN 19
0
99.9%
Riley Thompson punt for 42 yds, downed at the MD 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 24DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:450% → 0%
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
99.9%
MJ Morris pass complete to Leon Haughton Jr. for 2 yds to the MD 41Similar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+5
99.9%
Nolan Ray run for 5 yds to the MD 46Similar
Q4 8:32
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+2
99.9%
Nolan Ray run for 2 yds to the MD 48Similar
Q4 7:57
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
99.9%
Nolan Ray run for no gain to the MD 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 25DOWNS
8 plays · 36 yds · 4:07100% → 100%
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
99.9%
Corey Smith run for 12 yds to the MD 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
99.9%
Beau Pribula run for 6 yds to the MD 30Similar
Q4 6:47
2ND & 4
OPP 30
-2
99.9%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Corey Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the MD 32Similar
Q4 6:07
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+11
99.9%
Beau Pribula run for 11 yds to the MD 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
99.9%
Corey Smith run for 6 yds to the MD 15Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 4
OPP 15
-2
99.9%
Corey Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the MD 17Similar
Q4 4:24
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+5
99.9%
Beau Pribula run for 5 yds to the MD 12Similar
Q4 3:46
4TH & 1
OPP 12
0
99.9%
Quinton Martin Jr. run for no gain to the MD 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 26INT
7 plays · 44 yds · 2:220% → 0%
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
100.0%
Nolan Ray run for 8 yds to the MD 20Similar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 2
OWN 20
0
100.0%
MJ Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:57
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+25
100.0%
Nolan Ray run for 25 yds to the MD 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+16
100.0%
MJ Morris pass complete to Roman Hemby for 16 yds to the PSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
99.9%
MJ Morris sacked by Jordan Mayer for a loss of 5 yards to the PSU 44Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 15
OPP 44
-54
99.9%
MJ Morris pass intercepted Dejuan Lane return for 54 yds to the MD 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 27TD
4 plays · 13 yds · 1:04100% → 100%
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
100.0%
Corey Smith run for no gain to the MD 13Similar
Q4 0:27
2ND & 10
OPP 13
-2
100.0%
Corey Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the MD 15Similar
Q4 0:04
3RD & 12
OPP 15
0
100.0%
Beau Pribula pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 12
OPP 15
+15
100.0%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Tyseer Denmark for 15 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:53
Beau Pribula 1 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)
+2.9
TD · Q2 1:46
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 7 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)
+2
TD · Q2 10:11
Drew Allar run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)
+1.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com