ARDLINETry the model
I

Illinois 38 at Northwestern 28

N
2024 · Week 14 · Nov 30, 2024 · Wrigley Field
Win probability · N
modelN aheadI aheadconfidence bandkey play
Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDKEY PLAYKEY PLAYKEY PLAYKEY PLAYTD
What moved it - hover a play below
Q4 0:30 · (00:30) [NHSG] Kneel down by ALTMYER, Luke at UI47 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.
No driver breakdown computed for this play yet.
Play by play - hover to pin the curve
Q1 14:53
Jack Lausch run for 4 yds to the NU 29
0.0
Q1 14:22
Cam Porter run for 1 yd to the NU 30
+0.2
Q1 13:44
Jack Lausch pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 17 yds to the NU 47 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 13:06
Jack Lausch pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 8 yds to the ILL 45
+1.0
Q1 12:24
Jack Lausch pass incomplete
+0.9
Q1 12:18
Jack Lausch run for 12 yds to the ILL 33 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q1 11:39
Jack Lausch pass complete to A.J. Henning for 12 yds to the ILL 21 for a 1ST down
+0.6
Q1 11:02
Cam Porter run for 16 yds to the ILL 5 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 10:23
Cam Porter run for 2 yds to the ILL 3
0.0
Q1 9:40
Jack Lausch pass incomplete
0.0
Q1 9:40
Jack Lausch pass incomplete
-0.2
Q1 9:31
Luke Akers 21 Yd Field Goal
+4.8
Q1 9:23
Aidan Laughery run for no gain to the ILL 27
-2.9
Q1 8:49
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 43 yds to the NU 30 for a 1ST down
-0.5
Q1 8:12
Aidan Laughery 30 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)
-15.1
Q1 8:07
Joseph Himon II run for 8 yds to the NU 33
+6.0
Q1 7:30
Ryan Boe pass complete to A.J. Henning for 9 yds to the NU 42 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 6:52
Ryan Boe pass incomplete
-0.1
Q1 6:47
Jack Lausch pass complete to Thomas Gordon for 9 yds to the ILL 49
0.0
Q1 6:04
Cam Porter run for 2 yds to the ILL 47 for a 1ST down
+0.9
Q1 5:26
Jack Lausch run for 14 yds to the ILL 33 for a 1ST down
+0.6
Q1 4:47
Jack Lausch pass complete to Joseph Himon II for 4 yds to the ILL 29
+0.8
Q1 4:11
Caleb Komolafe run for 17 yds to the ILL 12 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 3:31
Jack Lausch pass incomplete
+0.1
Q1 3:25
Caleb Komolafe run for 2 yds to the ILL 10
0.0
Q1 2:51
Jack Lausch pass intercepted Xavier Scott return for 5 yds to the ILL 5
-0.2
Q1 2:44
Josh McCray run for 3 yds to the ILL 8
-6.0
Q1 2:14
Devin Turner 13 Yd Interception Return (Luke Akers Kick)
+14.0
Q1 1:55
Josh McCray run for 11 yds to the ILL 46 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 1:36
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 16 yds to the NU 38 for a 1ST down
-1.9
Q1 1:06
MCCRAY, Josh rush to the left for a gain of 1 yard to the NU37 (FITZGERALD, Robert;FLAKES, Brendan), clock 01:06. PENALTY UI Holding on DAVIS, J.C. enforced 10 yards from the NU38 to the NU48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).
-0.7
Q1 0:42
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Josh McCray for 5 yds to the NU 43
+0.6
Q1 0:06
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete
-0.3
Q1 0:00
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Collin Dixon for 38 yds to the NU 5 for a 1ST down
+0.5
Q2 14:49
Josh McCray run for 3 yds to the NU 2
-0.1
Q2 14:15
Timeout Northwestern, clock 14:15
+2.7
Q2 14:10
Josh McCray run for 1 yd to the NU 1
0.0
Q2 13:29
Timeout Illinois, clock 13:29
+1.4
Q2 13:21
Luke Altmyer 1 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)
-15.5
Q2 13:13
Ryan Boe pass complete to A.J. Henning for 4 yds to the NU 25
+7.0
Q2 12:33
Cam Porter run for no gain to the NU 25
-1.1
Q2 11:53
Ryan Boe pass incomplete
0.0
Q2 11:52
Hunter Renner punt for 43 yds , Hank Beatty returns for 10 yds to the ILL 42
0.0
Q2 11:36
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 1 yd to the ILL 43
-6.3
Q2 11:08
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete
+0.3
Q2 11:04
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Tanner Arkin for 3 yds to the ILL 46
0.0
Q2 10:30
Hugh Robertson punt for 47 yds , A.J. Henning returns for 11 yds to the NU 18
-0.4
Q2 10:20
Cam Porter run for 9 yds to the NU 27
+7.2
Q2 9:38
Jack Lausch pass complete to Thomas Gordon for 6 yds to the NU 33 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 9:00
Jack Lausch pass incomplete
0.0
Q2 9:00
Jack Lausch pass complete to A.J. Henning for 7 yds to the NU 40
0.0
Q2 8:29
(08:29) LAUSCH, Jack pass to the right complete for 8 yards to LANG, Marshall caught at the NU47 and advanced to the NU48 (BAILEY, Matthew), out of bounds, clock 08:25. PENALTY UI Holding on BAILEY, Matthew enforced 10 yards from the NU40 to the NU50 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).
+0.4
Q2 8:08
Ryan Boe pass incomplete
-1.1
Q2 8:00
Jack Lausch pass incomplete
0.0
Q2 7:59
Northwestern Penalty, False Start (Ben Wrather) to the NU 45
-0.2
Q2 7:56
Jack Lausch pass incomplete
-0.3
Q2 7:45
Hunter Renner punt for 41 yds , Hank Beatty returns for 5 yds to the ILL 19
0.0
Q2 7:41
Illinois Penalty, False Start (Collin Dixon) to the ILL 14
-6.4
Q2 7:35
Aidan Laughery run for 11 yds to the ILL 25
0.0
Q2 7:06
Aidan Laughery run for 14 yds to the ILL 39 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 6:28
Aidan Laughery run for 9 yds to the ILL 48
-0.9
Q2 5:59
Aidan Laughery run for 3 yds to the NU 49 for a 1ST down
-0.4
Q2 5:18
Luke Altmyer pass intercepted Devin Turner return for no gain to the NU 14
0.0
Q2 5:11
Joseph Himon II run for 7 yds to the NU 21
+8.1
Q2 4:30
Ryan Boe pass incomplete
+0.3
Q2 4:26
Jack Lausch pass complete to Thomas Gordon for 4 yds to the NU 25 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 3:49
Joseph Himon II run for 6 yds to the NU 31
0.0
Q2 3:09
Caleb Komolafe run for 1 yd to the NU 32
0.0
Q2 2:31
Jack Lausch pass complete to A.J. Henning for 8 yds to the NU 40 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 2:02
Jack Lausch pass incomplete
+0.7
Q2 1:59
Jack Lausch pass incomplete
0.0
Q2 1:53
Jack Lausch pass complete to A.J. Henning for 26 yds to the ILL 34 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q2 1:45
Caleb Komolafe run for 8 yds to the ILL 26
+2.0
Q2 1:38
Jack Lausch pass complete to Thomas Gordon for 8 yds to the ILL 18 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 1:14
Cam Porter run for 5 yds to the ILL 13
+1.2
Q2 0:36
Jack Lausch pass incomplete
0.0
Q2 0:36
Northwestern Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the ILL 18
-0.2
Q2 0:24
Jack Lausch sacked by Malachi Hood for a loss of 8 yards to the ILL 26
-0.1
Q2 0:03
Timeout Illinois, clock 00:03
-0.4
Q2 0:03
Luke Akers 44 Yard Field Goal Missed
0.0
Q3 14:49
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 5 yds to the ILL 36
-7.0
Q3 14:15
Aidan Laughery 64 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)
-17.4
Q3 14:09
Cam Porter run for 3 yds to the NU 25
+2.5
Q3 13:28
Cam Porter run for 6 yds to the NU 31
0.0
Q3 12:50
Jack Lausch pass incomplete
0.0
Q3 12:47
Hunter Renner punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Hank Beatty at the ILL 38
0.0
Q3 12:39
Josh McCray run for 7 yds to the ILL 45
-2.8
Q3 12:05
Josh McCray run for 2 yds to the ILL 47
-0.9
Q3 11:25
Jordan Anderson run for 4 yds to the NU 49 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 10:48
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 6 yds to the NU 43
-0.3
Q3 10:08
Pat Bryant 43 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (David Olano Kick)
-7.0
Q3 10:02
Jack Lausch run for no gain to the NU 25
+2.6
Q3 9:25
Jack Lausch pass incomplete
0.0
Q3 9:12
Jack Lausch pass complete to A.J. Henning for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 8:33
Caleb Komolafe run for 2 yds to the ILL 48
+0.1
Q3 7:56
Ryan Boe pass complete to A.J. Henning for 11 yds to the ILL 37 for a 1ST down
+0.3
Q3 7:06
Ryan Boe pass complete to Hayden Eligon II for 18 yds to the ILL 19 for a 1ST down
-0.1
Q3 6:27
Cam Porter run for 3 yds to the ILL 16
0.0
Q3 5:45
Ryan Boe pass incomplete
0.0
Q3 5:39
Ryan Boe pass incomplete
0.0
Q3 5:35
Luke Akers 34 Yd Field Goal
+4.1
Q3 5:25
Ca'Lil Valentine run for a loss of 2 yards to the ILL 16
-2.5
Q3 4:45
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 8 yds to the ILL 24
-0.1
Q3 4:17
Illinois Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Luke Altmyer) to the ILL 11
+0.1
Q3 4:15
Illinois Penalty, False Start (James Kreutz) to the ILL 6
0.0
Q3 4:09
Hugh Robertson punt for 34 yds, fair catch by A.J. Henning at the ILL 40
+0.1
Q3 4:03
Jack Lausch pass complete to A.J. Henning for 6 yds to the ILL 34
+2.1
Q3 3:25
Cam Porter run for 4 yds to the ILL 30 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 2:49
Jack Lausch pass complete to Hayden Eligon II for 17 yds to the ILL 13 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q3 2:15
Cam Porter run for 2 yds to the ILL 11
0.0
Q3 1:34
A.J. Henning 11 Yd pass from Jack Lausch (Luke Akers Kick)
+6.9
Q3 1:29
Aidan Laughery run for no gain to the ILL 25
-1.9
Q3 1:01
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete
0.0
Q3 0:50
Luke Altmyer sacked by Aidan Hubbard for a loss of 11 yards to the ILL 14
0.0
Q3 0:13
Hugh Robertson punt for 35 yds, fair catch by A.J. Henning at the ILL 49
0.0
Q3 0:03
Caleb Komolafe run for no gain to the ILL 49
+0.5
Q4 14:55
Caleb Komolafe run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard line
0.0
Q4 14:10
Jack Lausch pass intercepted Mac Resetich return for 28 yds to the NU 42
-0.3
Q4 14:02
Aidan Laughery run for 9 yds to the NU 33
-2.9
Q4 13:27
Josh McCray run for no gain to the NU 33
-0.3
Q4 12:45
Josh McCray run for 2 yds to the NU 31 for a 1ST down
-0.6
Q4 12:15
Aidan Laughery 31 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)
-5.9
Q4 12:04
Ryan Boe sacked for a loss of 15 yards to the NU 9 Ryan Boe fumbled, recovered by ILL Matthew Bailey , return for 0 yards
+1.1
Q4 12:01
Josh McCray run for 3 yds to the NU 6
-1.1
Q4 11:18
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete
-0.2
Q4 11:15
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete
0.0
Q4 11:06
David Olano 24 yd FG GOOD
-2.8
Q4 11:04
Jack Lausch pass incomplete
+1.4
Q4 10:57
LAUSCH, Jack pass deep to the left intercepted by COX JR., Torrie at the NU47 intended for JOHNSON II, Calvin. Cox Jr. return for 0 yards to the NU47, End of Play, clock 10:57. PENALTY UI Pass Interference on COX JR., Torrie enforced 15 yards to the NU40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).
0.0
Q4 10:53
Jack Lausch pass incomplete
0.0
Q4 10:45
Jack Lausch pass complete to Drew Wagner for 11 yds to the ILL 49 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 10:27
Jack Lausch pass incomplete
-0.2
Q4 10:21
Jack Lausch pass incomplete
0.0
Q4 10:19
Jack Lausch pass complete to Cam Porter for 28 yds Cam Porter fumbled, recovered by NU Calvin Johnson II C. Johnson II return for 0 yds for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 9:44
Jack Lausch pass incomplete
+0.1
Q4 9:38
(09:38) LAUSCH, Jack pass to the right complete for 6 yards to HENNING, A.J. caught at the UI15 and advanced to the UI15 (ZARDZIN, Luke), clock 09:31. PENALTY UI Offsides on JACAS, Gabe enforced 5 yards from the UI21 to the UI16 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).
0.0
Q4 9:29
Caleb Komolafe run for 3 yds to the ILL 13
0.0
Q4 9:01
Jack Lausch pass incomplete
0.0
Q4 9:01
Jack Lausch pass incomplete
0.0
Q4 8:49
Josh McCray run for 4 yds to the ILL 17
-1.3
Q4 8:03
Josh McCray run for 10 yds to the ILL 27 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 7:15
Timeout Northwestern, clock 07:15
-0.1
Q4 7:14
Aidan Laughery run for a loss of 3 yards to the ILL 24
0.0
Q4 7:10
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 3 yds to the ILL 27
0.0
Q4 7:09
Timeout Northwestern, clock 07:09
0.0
Q4 7:05
Aidan Laughery run for 4 yds to the ILL 31
0.0
Q4 7:04
Timeout Northwestern, clock 07:04
0.0
Q4 7:00
Hugh Robertson punt for 45 yds , A.J. Henning returns for 21 yds to the NU 45
0.0
Q4 6:46
Ryan Boe pass incomplete
+1.4
Q4 6:40
Ryan Boe pass incomplete
0.0
Q4 6:39
Ryan Boe pass intercepted Torrie Cox Jr. return for 3 yds to the ILL 49
0.0
Q4 6:33
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 5 yds to the NU 46
-1.4
Q4 5:39
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 15 yds to the NU 31 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 4:54
Ca'Lil Valentine run for no gain to the NU 31
0.0
Q4 4:15
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 2 yds to the NU 29
0.0
Q4 3:32
Ca'Lil Valentine run for a loss of 5 yards to the NU 34
0.0
Q4 2:47
Hugh Robertson punt for 34 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q4 2:39
Jack Lausch pass complete to Thomas Gordon for 6 yds to the NU 26
+1.2
Q4 2:20
Jack Lausch pass complete to Calvin Johnson II for 13 yds to the NU 39 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 2:00
Jack Lausch pass complete to Calvin Johnson II for 8 yds to the NU 47
0.0
Q4 1:56
Jack Lausch pass complete to Thomas Gordon for 5 yds to the ILL 48 for a 1ST down
-0.1
Q4 1:53
Jack Lausch pass incomplete
0.0
Q4 1:48
Jack Lausch pass complete to Calvin Johnson II for 18 yds to the ILL 30 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 1:33
Jack Lausch pass complete to Jake Arthurs for 2 yds to the ILL 28
+0.2
Q4 1:16
Jack Lausch pass incomplete
0.0
Q4 1:14
Jack Lausch pass complete to Drew Wagner for 13 yds to the ILL 15 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 1:00
Jack Lausch pass complete to Thomas Gordon for 15 yds for a TD (Jack Lausch pass to Marshall Lang for Two-Point Conversion)
+5.0
Q4 0:57
(00:57) [NHSG] Kneel down by ALTMYER, Luke at UI48 (team loss of 2), clock 00:53.
-1.7
Q4 0:30
(00:30) [NHSG] Kneel down by ALTMYER, Luke at UI47 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.
0.0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 14:15
Aidan Laughery 64 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)
-17.4
TD · Q2 13:21
Luke Altmyer 1 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)
-15.5
TD · Q1 8:12
Aidan Laughery 30 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)
-15.1
YardLine · model v2Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com