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USC

USC 19 at UCLA 13

UCLA
2024 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2024 · Rose Bowl
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Win probability · UCLA
modelUCLA aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playUCLA scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGFGTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:10 · Eddie Czaplicki punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Logan Loya at the UCLA 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 96Pregame prior−5.3Home team on offense+0.7Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.1Score differential+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.5
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:21: Michael Lantz 22 yd FG GOOD — USC win probability +4.0 pts (now 68%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:37: Ethan Garbers pass complete to Moliki Matavao for 10 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK) — UCLA win probability +17.3 pts (now 60%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 0:04: Mateen Bhaghani 29 yd FG GOOD — UCLA win probability +7.4 pts (now 68%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:55: Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 4 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK) — USC win probability +38.2 pts (now 74%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 2:09: Michael Lantz 30 yd FG GOOD — USC win probability +6.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCLA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8USC made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 11:32UCLA 4th & 6 at USC 33, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.7%−<0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    40.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:00USC 4th & 10 at USC 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:23UCLA 4th & 16 at UCLA 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:12USC 4th & 2 at UCLA 2, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.8%−0.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    53.5%−2.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:19UCLA 4th & 2 at USC 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    44.5%−0.9
    30% to make
    Punt
    44.8%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:57USC 4th & 3 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    56.6%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:25USC 4th & 6 at UCLA 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    52.0%−3.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:31UCLA 4th & 4 at USC 43, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    41.2%−2.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.9%−1.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:21USC 4th & 5 at UCLA 5, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.5%
    92% to make
    Punt
    54.8%−5.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:00USC 4th & 3 at UCLA 45, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    63.5%−2.9
    25% to make
    Punt
    65.1%−1.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:10USC 4th & 8 at USC 46, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%−1.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:04UCLA 4th & 11 at USC 11, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%−2.8
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.6%
    87% to make
    Punt
    44.7%−13.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:13USC 4th & 22 at UCLA 45, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−4.3
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    31.6%−2.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    33.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:19UCLA 4th & 12 at UCLA 24, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%−6.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:59UCLA 4th & 1 at UCLA 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    28.9%−5.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:09USC 4th & 5 at UCLA 13, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.3%
    85% to make
    Punt
    54.6%−21.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:52UCLA 4th & 10 at UCLA 25, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.9%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.8%−2.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCLA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1USC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q3 9:37UCLA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 6:55USC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.1%−2.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCLADrive 1FG
7 plays · 42 yds · 3:2436% → 38%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
35.9%
T.J. Harden run for 8 yds to the UCLA 33Similar
Q1 14:17
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+13
36.3%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 13 yds to the UCLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+17
36.5%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 17 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
37.0%
T.J. Harden run for 3 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+1
37.3%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 1 yd to the USC 33Similar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 6
OPP 33
0
37.6%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:32
4TH & 6
OPP 33
+51
37.7%
Mateen Bhaghani 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:3162% → 61%
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
37.7%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Woody Marks for 16 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
37.7%
Woody Marks run for no gain to the USC 41Similar
Q1 10:11
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
38.1%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:01
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
38.4%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:00
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
38.6%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Logan Loya at the UCLA 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 34 yds · 2:3038% → 39%
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+40
38.4%
T.J. Harden run for 40 yds to the UCLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
39.2%
T.J. Harden run for 2 yds to the UCLA 49Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 8
OWN 49
-5
39.5%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCLA 44Similar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 13
OWN 44
+2
39.4%
Keegan Jones run for 2 yds to the UCLA 46Similar
Q1 7:39
3RD & 11
OWN 46
0
39.4%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:30
4TH & 11
OWN 46
-5
39.1%
(07:30) RICHTER, Brody punt 43 yards to the USC11, fair catch by BRANCH, Zachariah, clock 07:25. PENALTY Before the snap, UCLA Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the UCLA46 to the UCLA41. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:23
4TH & 16
OWN 41
0
39.0%
Brody Richter punt for 54 yds, downed at the USC 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 4FG
9 plays · 93 yds · 3:0060% → 61%
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+7
40.1%
Woody Marks run for 7 yds to the USC 12Similar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 3
OWN 12
0
40.2%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:38
3RD & 3
OWN 12
+5
40.7%
Woody Marks run for 5 yds to the USC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+64
40.4%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 64 yds to the UCLA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+16
39.3%
Woody Marks run for 16 yds to the UCLA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
39.6%
Jayden Maiava run for 1 yd to the UCLA 2Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
39.8%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
40.2%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
39.2%
Michael Lantz 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 5DOWNS
10 plays · 33 yds · 4:5240% → 42%
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
40.0%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Logan Loya for 9 yds to the UCLA 34Similar
Q1 3:44
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
40.8%
T.J. Harden run for no gain to the UCLA 34Similar
Q1 3:08
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
40.5%
T.J. Harden run for 3 yds to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
41.2%
Keegan Jones run for 3 yds to the UCLA 40Similar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+10
42.0%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
50
+6
42.7%
Ethan Garbers run for 6 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 4
OPP 44
0
43.1%
T.J. Harden run for no gain to the USC 44Similar
Q2 14:58
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+2
43.1%
Ethan Garbers run for 2 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q2 14:19
4TH & 2
OPP 42
0
42.4%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 6FG
14 plays · 51 yds · 4:5161% → 61%
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
39.4%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+1
40.0%
Woody Marks run for 1 yd to the USC 44Similar
Q2 13:42
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+6
40.6%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:57
4TH & 3
50
+13
41.3%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 13 yds to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
40.0%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Woody Marks for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 38Similar
Q2 11:47
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+10
40.4%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Lake McRee for 10 yds to the UCLA 28Similar
Q2 11:22
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+3
40.2%
Quinten Joyner run for 3 yds to the UCLA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+21
39.5%
Quinten Joyner run for 21 yds to the UCLA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
39.6%
Quinten Joyner run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 6Similar
Q2 9:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
39.5%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
40.3%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
39.4%
Michael Lantz 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 2:4741% → 42%
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
41.2%
(09:18) HARDEN, T.J. rush up the middle for a gain of 6 yards to the UCLA36 (MUHAMMAD, Jamil;RAMSEY, Kamari), clock 09:14. PENALTY Before the snap, UCLA Illegal Formation on DIGIORGIO, Garrett enforced 5 yards from the UCLA30 to the UCLA25. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:49
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+26
40.8%
T.J. Harden run for 26 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
42.9%
T.J. Harden run for 1 yd to the USC 48Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+5
43.0%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Moliki Matavao for 5 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q2 6:42
3RD & 4
OPP 43
0
43.1%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:31
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
42.2%
Brody Richter punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Zachariah Branch at the USC 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 8FG
14 plays · 79 yds · 6:0459% → 68%
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
40.9%
Woody Marks run for 6 yds to the USC 22Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+3
40.1%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Woody Marks for 3 yds to the USC 25Similar
Q2 5:19
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+5
40.0%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 5 yds to the USC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
40.2%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Duce Robinson for 14 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
38.8%
Quinten Joyner run for 2 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+8
39.0%
Jayden Maiava run for 8 yds to the UCLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
37.8%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 8 yds to the UCLA 38Similar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+4
36.8%
Woody Marks run for 4 yds to the UCLA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
35.7%
Woody Marks run for 4 yds to the UCLA 30Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+26
35.5%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Lake McRee for 26 yds to the UCLA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
35.2%
Woody Marks run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 5Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
35.2%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
35.7%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
31.7%
Michael Lantz 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 9END OF HALF
5 plays · 54 yds · 0:1735% → 38%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
35.2%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to J.Michael Sturdivant for 15 yds to the UCLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
37.0%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+10
36.1%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to T.J. Harden for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
50
+29
38.3%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Kwazi Gilmer for 29 yds to the USC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 10DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5469% → 67%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
31.3%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:44
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+7
31.4%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 7 yds to the UCLA 45Similar
Q3 14:07
3RD & 3
OPP 45
0
31.3%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:00
4TH & 3
OPP 45
0
32.8%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 11TD
7 plays · 54 yds · 4:1939% → 60%
Q3 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
39.4%
T.J. Harden run for 2 yds to the UCLA 48Similar
Q3 13:19
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+29
39.6%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to J.Michael Sturdivant for 29 yds to the USC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
41.9%
T.J. Harden run for no gain to the USC 23Similar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+3
41.9%
T.J. Harden run for 3 yds to the USC 20Similar
Q3 11:19
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+8
40.4%
Ethan Garbers run for 8 yds to the USC 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
42.3%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 2 yds to the USC 10Similar
Q3 9:37
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+10
59.7%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Moliki Matavao for 10 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:2048% → 45%
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
52.5%
Woody Marks run for 6 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+7
51.0%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Woody Marks for 7 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
50.4%
Woody Marks run for 7 yds to the UCLA 49Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 3
OPP 49
-5
49.5%
Jayden Maiava sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the USC 46 Jayden Maiava fumbled, recovered by USC Walker Lyons , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 7:14
3RD & 8
OWN 46
0
52.4%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:10
4TH & 8
OWN 46
0
54.8%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Logan Loya at the UCLA 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 13FG
11 plays · 80 yds · 6:5955% → 68%
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
55.3%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Kwazi Gilmer for 7 yds to the UCLA 16Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 3
OWN 16
+7
55.9%
T.J. Harden run for 7 yds to the UCLA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-4
56.5%
Ethan Garbers sacked by Braylan Shelby for a loss of 4 yards to the UCLA 19Similar
Q3 5:02
2ND & 14
OWN 19
+8
56.3%
Ethan Garbers run for 8 yds to the UCLA 27Similar
Q3 4:22
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+23
55.7%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to T.J. Harden for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
50
+45
61.2%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to J.Michael Sturdivant for 45 yds to the USC 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
63.7%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Yutaka Mahe) to the USC 10Similar
Q3 2:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-6
63.9%
Ethan Garbers sacked by Nate Clifton for a loss of 6 yards to the USC 16Similar
Q3 1:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 16
+1
63.3%
Keegan Jones run for 1 yd to the USC 15Similar
Q3 1:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
+4
60.3%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to T.J. Harden for 4 yds to the USC 11Similar
Q3 0:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
67.7%
Mateen Bhaghani 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · -5 yds · 3:4639% → 30%
Q4 14:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
61.0%
Woody Marks run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 41Similar
Q4 14:37
2ND & 11
OPP 41
-3
62.1%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Quinten Joyner for 12 yds Quinten Joyner fumbled, recovered by USC Mason Murphy M. Murphy return for 0 yds for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Mason Murphy) to the UCLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
61.5%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Quinten Joyner for 8 yds to the UCLA 36Similar
Q4 13:21
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+3
61.7%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 3 yds to the UCLA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
60.3%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+1
60.3%
Woody Marks run for 1 yd to the UCLA 32Similar
Q4 12:02
3RD & 9
OPP 32
-13
63.2%
Jayden Maiava sacked by Oluwafemi Oladejo for a loss of 13 yards to the UCLA 45Similar
Q4 11:13
4TH & 22
OPP 45
0
69.6%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 44 yds, downed at the UCLA 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 2:4769% → 69%
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+25
68.8%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to J.Michael Sturdivant for 25 yds to the UCLA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
70.6%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Kwazi Gilmer for 2 yds to the UCLA 28Similar
Q4 9:47
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+3
71.1%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to J.Michael Sturdivant for 3 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q4 9:04
3RD & 5
OWN 31
-7
70.4%
Ethan Garbers sacked by Easton Mascarenas-Arnold for a loss of 7 yards to the UCLA 24Similar
Q4 8:19
4TH & 12
OWN 24
0
69.2%
Brody Richter punt for 25 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16TD
3 plays · 49 yds · 1:1936% → 74%
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
64.2%
Woody Marks run for 6 yds to the UCLA 43Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+39
64.1%
Makai Lemon pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 39 yds to the UCLA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
25.9%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 4 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 17DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5439% → 36%
Q4 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
39.3%
T.J. Harden run for 3 yds to the UCLA 28Similar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
39.8%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 6 yds to the UCLA 34Similar
Q4 5:43
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
40.6%
Keegan Jones run for no gain to the UCLA 34Similar
Q4 4:59
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
36.4%
Ethan Garbers run for no gain to the UCLA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18FG
10 plays · 21 yds · 2:4778% → 90%
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
22.0%
Woody Marks run for 4 yds to the UCLA 30Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 6
OPP 30
-10
21.7%
USC Penalty, Illegal Block (Elijah Paige) to the UCLA 35Similar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 11
OPP 35
+6
20.8%
Woody Marks run for 6 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q4 3:03
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+11
20.4%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 11 yds to the UCLA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
17.0%
Woody Marks run for 2 yds to the UCLA 16Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+3
15.8%
Woody Marks run for 3 yds to the UCLA 13Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 5
OPP 13
0
15.7%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:09
4TH & 5
OPP 13
+30
9.7%
Michael Lantz 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 19DOWNS
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1522% → 13%
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
22.2%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
20.0%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
19.0%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:52
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
13.0%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20END OF GAME
3 plays · -5 yds · 1:2194% → 95%
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
5.9%
(01:43) [NH] Kneel down by TEAM at UCLA26 (team loss of 1), clock 01:39.Similar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 11
OPP 26
-2
4.7%
(01:01) [NH] Kneel down by TEAM at UCLA28 (team loss of 2), clock 00:54.Similar
Q4 0:22
3RD & 13
OPP 28
-2
4.9%
(00:22) [NH] Kneel down by TEAM at UCLA30 (team loss of 2), clock 00:14.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:55
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 4 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)
-38.2
TD · Q3 9:37
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Moliki Matavao for 10 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)
+17.3
FG · Q3 0:04
Mateen Bhaghani 29 yd FG GOOD
+7.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com