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Win probability · NEB
modelNEB aheadWIS aheadconfidence bandkey playNEB scoreWIS score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:11 · Dante Dowdell run for 1 yd for a TD (John Hohl KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 14:18: Dante Dowdell run for 12 yds for a TD (John Hohl KICK) — NEB win probability +4.4 pts (now 63%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:17: Jahmal Banks 5 Yd pass from Dylan Raiola (John Hohl Kick) — NEB win probability +12.0 pts (now 76%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:07: Dante Dowdell run for 3 yds for a TD (John Hohl KICK) — NEB win probability +4.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:19: Braedyn Locke pass complete to Bryson Green for 24 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK) — WIS win probability +6.5 pts (now 9%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:30: Vinny Anthony II 58 Yd pass from Braedyn Locke (Braedyn Locke Pass to Bryson Green for Two-Point Conversion) — WIS win probability +8.8 pts (now 10%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
NEB made the numbers' call on 5 of 5WIS made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 7:22NEB 4th & 7 at NEB 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 55.0% before the snapGo for it55.1%−0.236% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.2%average punt
- Q1 5:19WIS 4th & 5 at WIS 46, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snapGo for it44.3%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.4%average punt
- Q1 3:03WIS 4th & 10 at NEB 17, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.5% before the snapGo for it44.0%−0.427% to convertField goalTheir call44.4%80% to makePunt42.4%−1.9average punt
- Q2 9:58WIS 4th & 3 at NEB 16, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 37.6% before the snapGo for it37.5%51% to convertField goalTheir call37.0%−0.581% to makePunt32.0%−5.5average punt
- Q2 7:24NEB 4th & 8 at NEB 48, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.8% before the snapGo for it59.6%−0.334% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.9%average punt
- Q2 3:17WIS 4th & 5 at NEB 24, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.4% before the snapGo for it39.6%−0.141% to convertField goalTheir call39.7%68% to makePunt35.7%−4.0average punt
- Q3 14:02WIS 4th & 10 at WIS 26, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.4% before the snapGo for it18.8%−1.328% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.1%average punt
- Q3 11:18NEB 4th & 5 at WIS 27, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.2% before the snapGo for it81.7%−<0.141% to convertField goalTheir call81.7%62% to makePunt76.7%−4.9average punt
- Q3 6:25WIS 4th & 2 at NEB 25, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.9%57% to convertField goal10.4%−1.566% to makePunt2.6%−9.3average punt
- Q4 10:52NEB 4th & 6 at WIS 8, up 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.8% before the snapGo for it95.5%−0.132% to convertField goalTheir call95.6%90% to makePunt92.1%−3.4average punt
- Q4 9:00WIS 4th & 1 at WIS 34, down 20Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.3%−0.2average punt
- Q4 0:35NEB 4th & 5 at WIS 43, up 19Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.2%42% to convertField goal99.2%−<0.128% to makePunt99.1%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEB made the numbers' call on 4 of 5WIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 12:07NEB Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call56.3%97% to makeGo for two56.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:52WIS Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call44.6%97% to makeGo for two44.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:18NEB Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call60.9%97% to makeGo for two60.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:17NEB Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call72.9%97% to makeGo for two72.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:07NEB Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.3%97% to makeGo for two97.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:19WIS Touchdown, down 18 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call6.3%97% to makeGo for two6.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:30WIS Touchdown, down 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · convertedKick5.7%−0.197% to makeGo for twoTheir call5.8%45% to convert
- Q4 3:11NEB Touchdown, up 18 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call98.3%−0.497% to makeGo for two98.7%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartNEBDrive 1TD7 plays · 55 yds · 2:3655% → 57%
WISDrive 2TD8 plays · 82 yds · 3:0443% → 45%
Q1 11:10
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+9
57.1%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 9 yds to the WIS 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
57.2%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 7 yds to the WIS 35Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+42
57.2%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 42 yds to the NEB 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:57
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+13
57.0%
(09:01) No Huddle-Shotgun Locke,Braedyn pass incomplete short right to Kekahuna,Trech thrown to NEB00, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY NEB Pass Interference (Gifford,Isaac) 13 yards from NEB17 to NEB04, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
54.8%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Bryson Green for 4 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 1:1556% → 55%
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
55.7%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jacory Barney Jr. for 4 yds to the NEB 29Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-5
55.9%
PENALTY NEB False Start (Fidone II,Thomas) 5 yards from NEB29 to NEB24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
55.8%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Isaiah Neyor for 4 yds to the NEB 28Similar
Q1 7:22
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+9
55.2%
Brian Buschini punt for 52 yds , Vinny Anthony II returns for 9 yds to the WIS 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 1:5044% → 44%
NEBDrive 5FUMBLE2 plays · 6 yds · 0:1956% → 56%
WISDrive 6MISSED FG5 plays · 0 yds · 1:5046% → 44%
Q1 4:53
3RD & 12
OPP 19
+7
55.1%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Bryson Green for 7 yds to the NEB 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 7TD10 plays · 80 yds · 3:2856% → 62%
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+27
56.2%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Emmett Johnson for 27 yds to the NEB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+21
57.5%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jacory Barney Jr. for 21 yds to the WIS 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:45
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+11
57.6%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 11 yds to the WIS 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
58.4%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jacory Barney Jr. for 3 yds to the WIS 17Similar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
61.9%
PENALTY NEB UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Mazzccua,Micah) 15 yards from NEB35 to NEB20. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 8FG9 plays · 32 yds · 3:4940% → 43%
Q2 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
59.8%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Tucker Ashcraft for 4 yds to the NEB 44Similar
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
59.1%
PENALTY WIS False Start (Huber,Joe) 5 yards from NEB23 to NEB28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 14
OPP 27
+7
60.6%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 7 yds to the NEB 20Similar
Q2 10:23
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+4
60.5%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Trech Kekahuna for 4 yds to the NEB 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 9PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 2:1860% → 60%
WISDrive 10MISSED FG10 plays · 73 yds · 3:5940% → 41%
Q2 5:57
3RD & 2
OWN 11
+27
61.1%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Chris Brooks Jr. for 27 yds to the WIS 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+11
58.6%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Jackson Acker for 11 yds to the WIS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+22
57.1%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Trech Kekahuna for 22 yds to the NEB 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 11TD10 plays · 76 yds · 2:4362% → 76%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
62.0%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Emmett Johnson for 4 yds to the NEB 28Similar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
63.9%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Isaiah Neyor for 6 yds to the NEB 48Similar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
64.9%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 15 yds to the WIS 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
65.4%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Luke Lindenmeyer for 8 yds to the WIS 22Similar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+13
64.3%
(00:26) No Huddle-Shotgun Raiola,Dylan pass incomplete short left to Banks,Jahmal thrown to WIS00, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY WIS Pass Interference (Hallman,Ricardo) 13 yards from WIS18 to WIS05, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 12FUMBLE2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
73.8%
Tawee Walker run for 6 yds to the WIS 31 Tawee Walker fumbled, recovered by NEB Stefon ThompsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 13FG2 plays · 12 yds · 0:0476% → 79%
WISDrive 14END OF HALF2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:4321% → 19%
Q3 14:02
4TH & 10
OWN 26
+9
80.6%
Atticus Bertrams punt for 56 yds , Jacory Barney Jr. returns for 9 yds to the NEB 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 16FG9 plays · 46 yds · 2:3981% → 86%
WISDrive 17DOWNS11 plays · 41 yds · 4:4115% → 12%
Q3 10:30
2ND & 3
OWN 40
-5
85.0%
PENALTY WIS False Start (Brunner,Joe) 5 yards from WIS40 to WIS35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+17
86.1%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Bryson Green for 17 yds to the NEB 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
85.2%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Darrion Dupree for 8 yds to the NEB 40Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+6
86.9%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Darrion Dupree for 6 yds to the NEB 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 18TD7 plays · 74 yds · 3:0891% → 97%
WISDrive 19TD5 plays · 79 yds · 1:263% → 9%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
96.8%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Riley Nowakowski for 8 yds to the WIS 29Similar
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
97.3%
Nebraska Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the NEB 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
90.8%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Bryson Green for 24 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 20FG13 plays · 67 yds · 5:1293% → 98%
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
93.4%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jacory Barney Jr. for 16 yds to the NEB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:37
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+20
95.9%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Emmett Johnson for 20 yds to the WIS 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+4
96.5%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Isaiah Neyor for 4 yds to the WIS 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 21TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:132% → 10%
NEBDrive 22TD14 plays · 75 yds · 5:0494% → 100%
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
94.3%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Nate Boerkircher for 10 yds to the NEB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
94.8%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jacory Barney Jr. for 9 yds to the NEB 44Similar
Q4 6:51
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+10
95.8%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 10 yds to the WIS 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+15
96.1%
PENALTY WIS UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Curtis,Tackett) 15 yards from WIS38 to WIS23, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:01
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+10
96.3%
(05:05) No Huddle-Shotgun Raiola,Dylan pass incomplete short left to Barney Jr.,Jacory thrown to WIS15 PENALTY WIS Roughing The Passer (Pius,John) 10 yards from WIS19 to WIS09, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
98.3%
Wisconsin Penalty, Face Mask (3 yards) (Sebastian Cheeks) to the WIS 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 23INT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:202% → 2%
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
97.8%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 9 yds to the WIS 34Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-7
97.7%
Braedyn Locke pass intercepted DeShon Singleton return for 7 yds to the WIS 48Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-7
97.7%
Braedyn Locke pass intercepted DeShon Singleton return for 7 yds to the WIS 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 24DOWNS4 plays · 2 yds · 1:50100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 25END OF GAME1 play · 8 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:17
Jahmal Banks 5 Yd pass from Dylan Raiola (John Hohl Kick)
+12
TD · Q4 8:30
Vinny Anthony II 58 Yd pass from Braedyn Locke (Braedyn Locke Pass to Bryson Green for Two-Point Conversion)
-8.8
TD · Q3 1:19
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Bryson Green for 24 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)
-6.5