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PSU

Penn State 26 at Minnesota 25

MINN
2024 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2024 · Huntington Bank Stadium
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Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scorePSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:20 · Mark Crawford punt for 41 yds , Liam Clifford returns for 6 yds to the 50 yard line
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialDefense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 26Pregame prior−27.3Home team on offense+2.2Score differential+0.4Defense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:48: Drew Allar pass complete to Omari Evans for 45 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK) — PSU win probability +5.8 pts (now 68%) (top driver: Defense has -2 timeouts left).
  2. FG · Q2 7:50: Ryan Barker 45 yd FG GOOD — PSU win probability +6.0 pts (now 71%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:03: Max Brosmer pass complete to Jameson Geers for 21 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK) — MINN win probability +20.0 pts (now 57%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:19: Drew Allar 4 Yd Run (Ryan Barker PAT blocked) — PSU win probability +8.3 pts (now 62%) (top driver: Defense has -7 timeouts left).
  5. TD · Q3 3:43: Nicholas Singleton 12 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick) — PSU win probability +15.8 pts (now 70%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 7 of 7PSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 13:13PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 74.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:44MINN 4th & 1 at PSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    27.1%−0.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    27.0%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:02PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 46, down 7
    Close callPunted · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.3%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:20MINN 4th & 6 at MINN 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:18PSU 4th & 5 at MINN 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    65.5%−0.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    65.2%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:56MINN 4th & 8 at PSU 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.9%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.1%
    56% to make
    Punt
    38.3%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:50PSU 4th & 15 at MINN 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−1.6
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.0%
    60% to make
    Punt
    56.5%−4.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:38MINN 4th & 13 at MINN 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%−0.5
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:12PSU 4th & 6 at PSU 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−2.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:59MINN 4th & 5 at PSU 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    41.7%−7.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:19PSU 4th & 9 at MINN 38, down 6
    Close callPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    43.8%−0.5
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.8%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:49MINN 4th & 7 at MINN 25, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%−1.9
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:51PSU 4th & 10 at MINN 15, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%−3.6
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    40.3%−18.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:48MINN 4th & 8 at PSU 8, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−1.3
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.8%
    90% to make
    Punt
    19.9%−15.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:47PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 34, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    61.3%−4.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:10PSU 4th & 1 at MINN 25, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    59.3%−8.3
    66% to make
    Punt
    36.6%−31.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:26PSU 4th & 1 at MINN 14, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    77.8%−1.3
    84% to make
    Punt
    44.3%−34.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2PSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:57MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:48PSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:03MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:19PSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    57.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:43PSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4781% → 80%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
18.9%
Nicholas Singleton run for 4 yds to the PSU 29Similar
Q1 14:29
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
19.2%
Drew Allar pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 5 yds to the PSU 34Similar
Q1 13:54
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
19.4%
Tyler Warren run for no gain to the PSU 34Similar
Q1 13:13
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
19.8%
Riley Thompson punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 2TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 4:1220% → 24%
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
19.9%
Marcus Major run for a loss of 1 yard to the MINN 29Similar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+20
20.2%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 20 yds to the MINN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
20.8%
Darius Taylor run for 10 yds to the PSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
21.2%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+4
21.3%
Darius Taylor run for 4 yds to the PSU 37Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+5
21.6%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Darius Taylor for 5 yds to the PSU 32Similar
Q1 9:44
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+12
21.8%
Darius Taylor run for 12 yds to the PSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
22.5%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:57
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
23.7%
Marcus Major run for 20 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:5576% → 74%
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
23.8%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 9 yds to the PSU 34Similar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
23.9%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for no gain to the PSU 34Similar
Q1 7:46
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
24.4%
Drew Allar run for 3 yds to the PSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
24.8%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+8
25.1%
Drew Allar pass complete to Liam Clifford for 8 yds to the PSU 45Similar
Q1 6:39
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+1
25.1%
Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the PSU 46Similar
Q1 6:02
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
25.6%
Riley Thompson punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Koi Perich at the MINN 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3828% → 30%
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
28.2%
Cristian Driver run for 4 yds to the MINN 15Similar
Q1 5:13
2ND & 6
OWN 15
-1
29.5%
Darius Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the MINN 14Similar
Q1 4:31
3RD & 7
OWN 14
+1
30.0%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Marcus Major for 1 yd to the MINN 15Similar
Q1 4:20
4TH & 6
OWN 15
+6
29.8%
Mark Crawford punt for 41 yds , Liam Clifford returns for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5DOWNS
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:5474% → 71%
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
50
+12
26.5%
Drew Allar pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 12 yds to the MINN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
26.9%
Drew Allar run for a loss of 1 yard to the MINN 39Similar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 11
OPP 39
0
27.7%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:07
3RD & 11
OPP 39
+6
28.3%
Drew Allar run for 6 yds to the MINN 33Similar
Q1 2:18
4TH & 5
OPP 33
-12
28.9%
Drew Allar sacked by Anthony Smith for a loss of 12 yards to the MINN 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 6FG
7 plays · 25 yds · 4:1934% → 43%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-4
33.7%
Max Brosmer sacked by Tony Rojas for a loss of 4 yards to the MINN 41Similar
Q1 1:33
2ND & 14
OWN 41
+4
34.0%
Marcus Major run for 4 yds to the MINN 45Similar
Q1 0:41
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+23
34.5%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 23 yds to the PSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
36.4%
Darius Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the PSU 33Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+2
37.1%
Marcus Major run for 2 yds to the PSU 31Similar
Q2 13:39
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+1
37.5%
Darius Taylor run for 1 yd to the PSU 30Similar
Q2 12:56
4TH & 8
OPP 30
+48
43.2%
Dragan Kesich 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:0863% → 68%
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
37.3%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 19 yds to the PSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
36.7%
Nicholas Singleton run for 9 yds to the MINN 47Similar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+3
36.3%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 3 yds to the MINN 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
37.6%
Nicholas Singleton run for a loss of 1 yard to the MINN 45Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+45
31.9%
Drew Allar pass complete to Omari Evans for 45 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 8INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 1:2532% → 34%
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.2%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
32.0%
Darius Taylor run for 8 yds to the MINN 33Similar
Q2 9:58
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
32.9%
Darius Taylor run for 4 yds to the MINN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-29
34.1%
Max Brosmer pass intercepted Dominic DeLuca return for 29 yds to the MINN 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9FG
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:1468% → 71%
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
31.6%
Beau Pribula run for 4 yds to the MINN 19Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 6
OPP 19
-9
32.2%
Drew Allar sacked by Jack Henderson and Danny Striggow for a loss of 9 yards to the MINN 28Similar
Q2 7:58
3RD & 15
OPP 28
0
35.1%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:50
4TH & 15
OPP 28
+45
29.1%
Ryan Barker 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 5:0732% → 33%
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
31.9%
Marcus Major run for 5 yds to the MINN 31Similar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+10
32.6%
Darius Taylor run for 10 yds to the MINN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
34.2%
Marcus Major run for 6 yds to the MINN 47Similar
Q2 5:48
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+3
35.3%
Darius Taylor run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:31
3RD & 1
50
+2
35.0%
Max Brosmer run for 2 yds to the PSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
36.6%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 5 yds to the PSU 43Similar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 5
OPP 43
-3
37.2%
Marcus Major run for a loss of 3 yards to the PSU 46Similar
Q2 3:19
3RD & 8
OPP 46
-5
36.0%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Darius Taylor for a loss of 5 yards to the MINN 49Similar
Q2 2:38
4TH & 13
OWN 49
0
33.2%
Mark Crawford punt for 48 yds, downed at the PSU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1367% → 63%
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
32.8%
Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the PSU 5Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+2
34.8%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 2 yds to the PSU 7Similar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 6
OWN 7
0
36.1%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:12
4TH & 6
OWN 7
0
37.1%
null punt blocked by blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 12TD
1 play · 21 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
57.1%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Jameson Geers for 21 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 0:4448% → 62%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
52.1%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 5 yds to the PSU 30Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+11
51.6%
Drew Allar pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 11 yds to the PSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
50.8%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 6 yds to the PSU 47Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+15
49.5%
(00:47) ALLAR, Drew pass deep to the right incomplete intended for WALLACE III, Harrison thrown to the MINN32; QB hurried by JOYNER, Jah, clock 00:41. PENALTY MINN Pass Interference on ROBINSON, Ethan enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards to the MINN38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+28
48.5%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 28 yds to the MINN 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
46.5%
Drew Allar pass complete to Omari Evans for 6 yds to the MINN 4Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
38.4%
Drew Allar 4 Yd Run (Ryan Barker PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
30.6%
(00:19) [NH] Kneel down by BROSMER, Max at MINN24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:05.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 15FG
10 plays · 51 yds · 5:0140% → 54%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
40.3%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 23 yds to the MINN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
44.6%
Darius Taylor run for 1 yd to the MINN 49Similar
Q3 13:51
2ND & 9
OWN 49
0
44.8%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:39
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+5
43.1%
Penn State Penalty, Offsides (Coziah Izzard) to the PSU 46Similar
Q3 13:39
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+4
45.0%
Marcus Major run for 4 yds to the PSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+13
46.5%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 13 yds to the PSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
47.8%
Darius Taylor run for 2 yds to the PSU 27Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+5
48.6%
Daniel Jackson run for 5 yds to the PSU 22Similar
Q3 10:46
3RD & 3
OPP 22
-2
47.8%
Darius Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the PSU 24Similar
Q3 9:59
4TH & 5
OPP 24
+42
53.5%
Dragan Kesich 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 37 yds · 2:4050% → 48%
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
49.6%
Kaytron Allen run for 8 yds to the PSU 33Similar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+18
47.2%
Drew Allar pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 18 yds to the MINN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
46.2%
Kaytron Allen run for 6 yds to the MINN 43Similar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+4
46.0%
Nicholas Singleton run for 4 yds to the MINN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
47.3%
Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd to the MINN 38Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 9
OPP 38
0
47.7%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:20
3RD & 9
OPP 38
0
48.4%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:19
4TH & 9
OPP 38
0
51.8%
Tyler Warren punt for 16 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2655% → 54%
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
55.1%
Darius Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the MINN 21Similar
Q3 6:32
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+4
55.5%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 4 yds to the MINN 25Similar
Q3 5:58
3RD & 7
OWN 25
0
54.8%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:49
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
54.0%
Mark Crawford punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18TD
5 plays · 57 yds · 1:5850% → 70%
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
50.1%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 12 yds to the MINN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
48.3%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 8 yds to the MINN 37Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+10
47.5%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 10 yds to the MINN 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
46.0%
Nicholas Singleton run for 15 yds to the MINN 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
30.2%
Nicholas Singleton 12 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 19FUMBLE
7 plays · 16 yds · 3:4332% → 37%
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
31.6%
Max Brosmer run for 8 yds to the MINN 33Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
34.4%
Darius Taylor run for 2 yds to the MINN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
32.5%
Max Brosmer run for 4 yds to the MINN 39Similar
Q3 1:42
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+5
35.5%
Penn State Penalty, Offsides (Smith Vilbert) to the MINN 44Similar
Q3 1:18
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+1
36.1%
Marcus Major run for 1 yd to the MINN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
35.8%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Nick Kallerup for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
50
-9
37.0%
Max Brosmer run for a loss of 9 yards to the MINN 41 Max Brosmer fumbled, recovered by PSU Zakee Wheatley Z. Wheatley return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20FG
8 plays · 26 yds · 3:0267% → 66%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+14
33.1%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 14 yds to the MINN 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
31.2%
Kaytron Allen run for no gain to the MINN 27Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+12
31.2%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 12 yds to the MINN 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
30.6%
Kaytron Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the MINN 16Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 11
OPP 16
+1
31.5%
Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd to the MINN 15Similar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
37.7%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:51
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+32
33.9%
Ryan Barker 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 21FG
11 plays · 67 yds · 5:5838% → 41%
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
38.4%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 23 yds to the MINN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
43.3%
Max Brosmer run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 8
50
+4
44.4%
Darius Taylor run for 4 yds to the PSU 46Similar
Q4 9:33
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+6
45.1%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 6 yds to the PSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
46.5%
Darius Taylor run for 2 yds to the PSU 38Similar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+8
46.8%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Darius Taylor for 8 yds to the PSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+23
48.4%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 23 yds to the PSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
46.8%
Marcus Major run for a loss of 1 yard to the PSU 8Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
47.0%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
44.7%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
41.1%
Dragan Kesich 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22END OF GAME
18 plays · 72 yds · 5:2262% → 88%
Q4 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
38.0%
Nicholas Singleton run for 6 yds to the PSU 31Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-5
35.9%
Kaytron Allen run for a loss of 5 yards to the PSU 26Similar
Q4 4:34
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+8
40.0%
Drew Allar run for 8 yds to the PSU 34Similar
Q4 3:47
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+32
40.4%
Luke Reynolds run for 32 yds to the MINN 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
27.3%
Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the MINN 32Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+7
26.3%
Drew Allar run for 7 yds to the MINN 25Similar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 1
OPP 25
0
28.5%
Tyler Warren run for no gain to the MINN 25Similar
Q4 2:10
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+2
31.2%
Drew Allar run for 2 yds to the MINN 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
23.4%
Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the MINN 22Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 9
OPP 22
-1
20.4%
Nicholas Singleton run for a loss of 1 yard to the MINN 23Similar
Q4 1:11
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+9
15.1%
Nicholas Singleton run for 9 yds to the MINN 14Similar
Q4 0:26
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+11
11.6%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 11 yds to the MINN 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:03
Max Brosmer pass complete to Jameson Geers for 21 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)
+20
TD · Q3 3:43
Nicholas Singleton 12 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)
-15.8
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-11.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com