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IOWA

Iowa 29 at Maryland 13

MD
2024 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2024 · SECU Stadium
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Win probability · MD
modelMD aheadIOWA aheadconfidence bandkey playMD scoreIOWA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:36 · Bryce McFerson punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Kaden Wetjen at the MD 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+50.0+25.00−25.0−50.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 71Home team on offense−9.8Score differential−4.2Pregame prior−6.7Garbage-time factor−2.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:29: Kaleb Johnson 2 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick) — IOWA win probability +7.4 pts (now 70%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 1:00: Drew Stevens 54 yd FG GOOD — IOWA win probability +8.8 pts (now 79%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 0:00: Drew Stevens 49 yd FG GOOD — IOWA win probability +8.4 pts (now 86%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:05: MJ Morris pass complete to Tai Felton for 12 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK) — MD win probability +19.3 pts (now 37%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:19: Kamari Moulton run for 68 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK) — IOWA win probability +16.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MD made the numbers' call on 7 of 8IOWA made the numbers' call on 3 of 9
  1. Q1 6:51MD 4th & 9 at MD 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:22IOWA 4th & 4 at MD 9, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%
    43% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.1%−0.1
    89% to make
    Punt
    53.7%−2.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:05MD 4th & 5 at MD 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:28IOWA 4th & 1 at MD 15, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    55.8%−1.5
    83% to make
    Punt
    51.1%−6.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:17MD 4th & 12 at MD 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%−1.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:58IOWA 4th & 4 at IOWA 42, up 10
    Close callPunted · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.8%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:36MD 4th & 6 at MD 9, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%−1.0
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:00IOWA 4th & 13 at MD 36, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%−0.7
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.9%
    42% to make
    Punt
    68.0%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:32MD 4th & 11 at MD 12, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−1.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:05IOWA 4th & 2 at MD 32, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.7%−2.0
    51% to make
    Punt
    74.4%−3.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:52IOWA 4th & 1 at IOWA 45, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsPunted · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.4%−2.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:31MD 4th & 5 at MD 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−1.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:00IOWA 4th & 3 at MD 31, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.1%−1.6
    54% to make
    Punt
    74.3%−3.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:32MD 4th & 1 at IOWA 11, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    17.3%−1.5
    87% to make
    Punt
    11.2%−7.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:20IOWA 4th & 9 at IOWA 36, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%−0.8
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:10IOWA 4th & 1 at MD 8, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.5%−1.2
    90% to make
    Punt
    92.7%−3.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:45MD 4th & 11 at MD 46, down 16
    Close callPunted · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MD made the numbers' call on 1 of 2IOWA made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 6:29IOWA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 5:57MD Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    27.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    27.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 11:05MD Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:19IOWA Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IOWADrive 1FUMBLE
13 plays · 65 yds · 6:0863% → 61%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
37.5%
Kaleb Johnson run for 2 yds to the IOWA 27Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+13
37.7%
Kaleb Johnson run for 13 yds to the IOWA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
37.9%
Jackson Stratton pass complete to Jacob Gill for 7 yds to the IOWA 47Similar
Q1 13:26
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+2
37.9%
Kaleb Johnson run for 2 yds to the IOWA 49Similar
Q1 12:58
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+2
38.0%
Kaleb Johnson run for 2 yds to the MD 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
38.1%
Jaziun Patterson run for 3 yds to the MD 46Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+7
38.2%
Kaleb Johnson run for 7 yds to the MD 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
38.4%
Jackson Stratton pass complete to Jacob Gill for 10 yds to the MD 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
38.3%
Kaleb Johnson run for 9 yds to the MD 20Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+7
38.4%
Kaleb Johnson run for 7 yds to the MD 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-10
38.6%
Jackson Stratton sacked by Caleb Wheatland for a loss of 10 yards to the MD 23Similar
Q1 8:52
2ND & 20
OPP 23
+13
38.9%
Kamari Moulton run for 13 yds to the MD 10 Kamari Moulton fumbled, recovered by MD Jalen Huskey J. Huskey return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:5140% → 40%
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
39.5%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+10
39.5%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Kaden Prather for 10 yds to the MD 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
39.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 7 yds to the MD 27Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 3
OWN 27
-6
40.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Roman Hemby for a loss of 6 yards to the MD 21Similar
Q1 7:06
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
39.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:51
4TH & 9
OWN 21
+7
39.5%
Bryce McFerson punt for 54 yds , Kaden Wetjen returns for 7 yds to the IOWA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3FG
13 plays · 59 yds · 6:2060% → 60%
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
39.9%
Kaleb Johnson run for 4 yds to the IOWA 36Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+12
39.9%
Kaleb Johnson run for 12 yds to the IOWA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
39.6%
Jaziun Patterson run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:04
2ND & 8
50
0
39.7%
Jaziun Patterson run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:26
3RD & 8
50
+12
40.1%
Jackson Stratton pass complete to Jarriett Buie for 12 yds to the MD 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
39.8%
Kaleb Johnson run for 7 yds to the MD 31Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+6
39.4%
Jackson Stratton pass complete to Kaleb Johnson for 6 yds to the MD 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
39.5%
Kamari Moulton run for 6 yds to the MD 19Similar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+4
39.1%
Kamari Moulton run for 4 yds to the MD 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
39.2%
Jaziun Patterson run for 3 yds to the MD 12Similar
Q1 1:03
2ND & 7
OPP 12
0
39.3%
Jackson Stratton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:01
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+3
39.8%
Kaleb Johnson run for 3 yds to the MD 9Similar
Q1 0:22
4TH & 4
OPP 9
+27
39.8%
Drew Stevens 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1140% → 40%
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-3
40.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. sacked by Ethan Hurkett for a loss of 3 yards to the MD 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 27
+2
39.9%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the MD 29Similar
Q2 14:36
3RD & 11
OWN 29
+6
39.3%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Roman Hemby for 6 yds to the MD 35Similar
Q2 14:05
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
39.5%
Bryce McFerson punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 5TD
15 plays · 77 yds · 7:2660% → 70%
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+22
40.2%
Kaleb Johnson run for 7 yds to the IOWA 30 for a 1ST down Maryland Penalty, Personal Foul (Dante Trader Jr.) to the IOWA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
38.9%
Kaleb Johnson run for 7 yds to the MD 48Similar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+14
38.5%
Jackson Stratton pass complete to Addison Ostrenga for 14 yds to the MD 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
38.2%
Kamari Moulton run for 3 yds to the MD 31Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+7
38.0%
Kamari Moulton run for 7 yds to the MD 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
38.0%
Kaleb Johnson run for 9 yds to the MD 15Similar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 1
OPP 15
0
37.9%
Terrell Washington Jr. run for no gain to the MD 15Similar
Q2 10:13
3RD & 1
OPP 15
0
38.7%
Kamari Moulton run for no gain to the MD 15Similar
Q2 9:28
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+2
39.6%
Jackson Stratton run for 2 yds to the MD 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
37.7%
Kaleb Johnson run for 3 yds to the MD 10Similar
Q2 8:24
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+7
37.7%
Kaleb Johnson run for 7 yds to the MD 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
36.7%
Kaleb Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the MD 5Similar
Q2 7:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
36.7%
Jackson Stratton pass complete to Terrell Washington Jr. for 3 yds to the MD 2Similar
Q2 6:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
29.7%
Kaleb Johnson 2 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 2:1231% → 29%
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
31.3%
MJ Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
31.2%
MJ Morris run for 5 yds to the MD 30Similar
Q2 5:46
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+7
31.0%
MJ Morris pass complete to Preston Howard for 7 yds to the MD 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
31.7%
(05:19) MORRIS, MJ scrambles to the left for a gain of 5 yards to the UMD42, out of bounds, clock 05:11. PENALTY UMD Holding on BAH, Aliou enforced 10 yards from the UMD37 to the UMD27 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:02
1ST & 20
OWN 27
0
30.9%
MJ Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:58
2ND & 20
OWN 27
+8
30.7%
MJ Morris pass complete to Tai Felton for 8 yds to the MD 35Similar
Q2 4:24
3RD & 12
OWN 35
0
30.1%
MJ Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:17
4TH & 12
OWN 35
+1
29.4%
Bryce McFerson punt for 30 yds , Kaden Wetjen returns for 1 yd to the IOWA 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 2:0871% → 72%
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
28.7%
Addison Ostrenga run for a loss of 3 yards to the IOWA 33Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+1
29.7%
Kaleb Johnson run for 1 yd to the IOWA 34Similar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 12
OWN 34
+3
29.8%
Kaleb Johnson run for 3 yds to the IOWA 37Similar
Q2 2:00
4TH & 9
OWN 37
+5
29.9%
Maryland Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the IOWA 42Similar
Q2 1:58
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
28.5%
Rhys Dakin punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:1429% → 29%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
28.6%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the MD 7Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+2
28.9%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the MD 9Similar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 6
OWN 9
0
28.8%
MJ Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:36
4TH & 6
OWN 9
0
28.5%
Bryce McFerson punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Kaden Wetjen at the MD 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9FG
8 plays · 8 yds · 0:2972% → 79%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
28.3%
Jackson Stratton pass complete to Luke Lachey for 9 yds to the MD 35Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+2
27.1%
Kaleb Johnson run for 2 yds to the MD 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
27.7%
Jackson Stratton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
27.0%
Jackson Stratton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 10
OPP 33
-5
27.7%
Iowa Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jarriett Buie) to the MD 38Similar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 15
OPP 38
+2
28.3%
Kaleb Johnson run for 2 yds to the MD 36Similar
Q2 1:00
4TH & 13
OPP 36
+54
21.1%
Drew Stevens 54 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 10END OF HALF
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:5024% → 26%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
23.5%
MJ Morris sacked by Ethan Hurkett for a loss of 2 yards to the MD 23Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+13
26.2%
MJ Morris pass complete to Tai Felton for 13 yds to the MD 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
26.9%
MJ Morris pass complete to Preston Howard for 5 yds to the MD 41Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
27.5%
MJ Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 5
OWN 41
-5
26.5%
Maryland Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the MD 36Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+9
25.7%
MJ Morris pass complete to Shaleak Knotts for 9 yds to the MD 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:1827% → 25%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
26.5%
Roman Hemby run for a loss of 1 yard to the MD 12Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 11
OWN 12
0
26.3%
Roman Hemby run for no gain to the MD 12Similar
Q3 13:52
3RD & 11
OWN 12
0
25.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:32
4TH & 11
OWN 12
0
25.3%
Bryce McFerson punt for 39 yds, downed at the IOWA 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 12FG
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:2578% → 83%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
22.2%
Kaleb Johnson run for 11 yds to the MD 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
21.3%
Kaleb Johnson run for 5 yds to the MD 35Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 5
OPP 35
-2
20.4%
Jacob Gill run for a loss of 2 yards to the MD 37Similar
Q3 11:51
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+5
20.9%
Maryland Penalty, Offsides (Donnell Brown) to the MD 32Similar
Q3 11:47
3RD & 2
OPP 32
0
20.7%
Jaziun Patterson run for no gain to the MD 32Similar
Q3 11:05
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+50
16.9%
Drew Stevens 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 13TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 5:0619% → 27%
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
19.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Roman Hemby for 11 yds to the MD 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
20.7%
Roman Hemby run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 1
50
+7
21.1%
Roman Hemby run for 7 yds to the IOWA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
20.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 3 yds to the IOWA 40Similar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+5
20.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Kaden Prather for 5 yds to the IOWA 35Similar
Q3 8:38
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+5
20.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 5 yds to the IOWA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+14
20.7%
Nolan Ray run for 14 yds to the IOWA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+13
20.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 13 yds to the IOWA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
20.1%
Roman Hemby run for a loss of 2 yards to the IOWA 5Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
19.8%
MJ Morris run for a loss of 3 yards to the IOWA 8Similar
Q3 5:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
27.0%
MJ Morris pass complete to Tai Felton for 8 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 3:0075% → 77%
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
25.0%
Kaleb Johnson run for 4 yds to the IOWA 27Similar
Q3 5:18
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+9
23.6%
Jackson Stratton pass complete to Jacob Gill for 9 yds to the IOWA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
22.5%
Kaleb Johnson run for 3 yds to the IOWA 39Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+3
21.6%
Jackson Stratton pass complete to Jarriett Buie for 3 yds to the IOWA 42Similar
Q3 3:39
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+3
21.7%
Jackson Stratton pass complete to Jacob Gill for 3 yds to the IOWA 45Similar
Q3 2:52
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
23.0%
Rhys Dakin punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tai Felton at the MD 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1523% → 20%
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
22.6%
Nolan Ray run for 3 yds to the MD 19Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+2
22.5%
MJ Morris run for 2 yds to the MD 21Similar
Q3 1:43
3RD & 5
OWN 21
0
21.2%
MJ Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:31
4TH & 5
OWN 21
+8
20.2%
Bryce McFerson punt for 40 yds , Kaden Wetjen returns for 8 yds to the MD 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 16FG
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5380% → 86%
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
20.0%
Kaleb Johnson run for 6 yds to the MD 32Similar
Q3 0:41
2ND & 4
OPP 32
0
19.2%
Jackson Stratton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:35
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+1
19.8%
Kaleb Johnson run for 1 yd to the MD 31Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+49
13.7%
Drew Stevens 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 17TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 3:5518% → 37%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+25
18.4%
Nolan Ray run for 25 yds to the IOWA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
19.5%
MJ Morris pass complete to Kaden Prather for 5 yds to the IOWA 35Similar
Q4 13:57
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+15
21.4%
MORRIS, MJ pass deep to the right incomplete intended for FELTON, Tai thrown to the IOW0, clock 13:57. PENALTY IOW Pass Interference on HALL, TJ enforced 15 yards to the IOW20 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
21.4%
Nolan Ray run for 6 yds to the IOWA 14Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 4
OPP 14
0
21.3%
MJ Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:17
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+3
19.6%
MJ Morris run for 3 yds to the IOWA 11Similar
Q4 12:32
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+1
19.0%
MJ Morris run for 1 yd to the IOWA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
18.5%
Maryland Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the IOWA 15Similar
Q4 11:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+3
17.9%
MJ Morris run for 3 yds to the IOWA 12Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
37.2%
MJ Morris pass complete to Tai Felton for 12 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 18TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:3574% → 93%
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
26.1%
Kaleb Johnson run for 8 yds to the IOWA 28Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+1
22.9%
Kaleb Johnson run for 1 yd to the IOWA 29Similar
Q4 9:54
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
23.6%
Kaleb Johnson run for 3 yds to the IOWA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+68
7.2%
Kamari Moulton run for 68 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 19INT
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:2110% → 10%
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
9.9%
MJ Morris run for 4 yds to the MD 12Similar
Q4 8:54
2ND & 6
OWN 12
0
10.0%
MJ Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:51
3RD & 6
OWN 12
+8
9.7%
MJ Morris pass complete to Tai Felton for 8 yds to the MD 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
9.7%
MJ Morris pass complete to Tai Felton for 8 yds to the MD 28Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 2
OWN 28
0
9.8%
MJ Morris pass intercepted TJ Hall return for no gain to the IOWA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 2:1994% → 95%
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
6.4%
Kaleb Johnson run for 3 yds to the IOWA 38Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-5
5.5%
Kaleb Johnson run for a loss of 5 yards to the IOWA 33Similar
Q4 6:11
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+3
5.7%
Kaleb Johnson run for 3 yds to the IOWA 36Similar
Q4 5:20
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
5.1%
Rhys Dakin punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tai Felton at the MD 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 21INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
6.7%
MJ Morris pass intercepted Jay Higgins return for no gain to the MD 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 22FG
10 plays · 25 yds · 3:0296% → 99%
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
4.5%
Kamari Moulton run for 3 yds to the MD 30Similar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+1
4.3%
Kamari Moulton run for 1 yd to the MD 29Similar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+12
4.1%
Kaleb Johnson run for 12 yds to the MD 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
3.6%
Kamari Moulton run for 4 yds to the MD 13Similar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+4
3.1%
Kamari Moulton run for 4 yds to the MD 9Similar
Q4 2:55
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+1
2.8%
Kamari Moulton run for 1 yd to the MD 8Similar
Q4 2:10
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+26
1.2%
Drew Stevens 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:191% → 1%
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
1.3%
MJ Morris pass complete to Roman Hemby for 14 yds to the MD 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
1.1%
MJ Morris pass complete to Roman Hemby for 6 yds to the IOWA 47Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 4
OPP 47
-7
1.2%
MJ Morris sacked by Max Llewellyn for a loss of 7 yards to the MD 46Similar
Q4 0:56
3RD & 11
OWN 46
0
1.0%
MJ Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:45
4TH & 11
OWN 46
0
1.0%
Bryce McFerson punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
1.0%
(00:39) Kneel down by STRATTON, Jackson at IOW15 (team loss of 5), clock 00:33.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:05
MJ Morris pass complete to Tai Felton for 12 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)
+19.3
TD · Q4 9:19
Kamari Moulton run for 68 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)
-16.4
FG · Q2 1:00
Drew Stevens 54 yd FG GOOD
-8.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com