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Win probability · RUTG
modelRUTG aheadILL aheadconfidence bandkey playRUTG scoreILL score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:04 · Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 40 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 6:36: Josh McCray run for 4 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — ILL win probability +16.8 pts (now 45%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:48: Aidan Laughery run for 8 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK) — ILL win probability +22.5 pts (now 45%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
- TD · Q4 3:07: Luke Altmyer run for 30 yds for a TD (Luke Altmyer pass to Josh McCray for Two-Point Conversion) — ILL win probability +48.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
- TD · Q4 1:08: Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Kyle Monangai for 13 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK) — RUTG win probability +56.4 pts (now 83%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:04: Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 40 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — ILL win probability +72.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
RUTG made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ILL made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 11:10ILL 4th & 8 at RUTG 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 42.3% before the snapGo for it42.3%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.3%average punt
- Q1 5:52RUTG 4th & 3 at ILL 15, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 58.3% before the snapGo for it58.2%51% to convertField goalTheir call58.1%−0.183% to makePunt56.5%−1.7average punt
- Q1 1:51ILL 4th & 18 at RUTG 49, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snapGo for it39.8%−1.013% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.8%average punt
- Q1 1:28RUTG 4th & 10 at RUTG 19, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.0% before the snapGo for it57.5%−0.528% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.1%average punt
- Q2 14:56ILL 4th & 11 at RUTG 11, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.8% before the snapGo for it40.1%−0.722% to convertField goalTheir call40.7%87% to makePunt37.5%−3.2average punt
- Q3 13:14RUTG 4th & 13 at RUTG 48, up 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.9% before the snapGo for it71.9%−2.021% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.9%average punt
- Q3 11:55ILL 4th & 4 at ILL 22, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.0% before the snapGo for it25.1%−0.747% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.8%average punt
- Q4 9:06RUTG 4th & 7 at ILL 46, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.9% before the snapGo for it65.5%−0.337% to convertField goal60.9%−4.823% to makePuntTheir call65.7%average punt
- Q4 1:39RUTG 4th & 10 at ILL 40, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call16.5%30% to convertField goal12.1%−4.434% to makePunt11.0%−5.4average punt
- Q4 0:04ILL 4th & 13 at RUTG 40, down 1Numbers favored field goal by 17.1 ptsWent for it · 20.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call14.2%−17.121% to convertField goal31.3%34% to makePunt13.0%−18.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RUTG made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ILL made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
- Q2 9:20RUTG Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.0%97% to makeGo for two63.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:32ILL Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call39.8%97% to makeGo for two39.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:06RUTG Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.7%97% to makeGo for two70.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:36ILL Touchdown, down 2 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick40.0%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call39.8%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 14:51RUTG Touchdown, up 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.2%97% to makeGo for two85.0%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 13:48ILL Touchdown, down 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call33.8%97% to makeGo for two33.4%−0.445% to convert
- Q4 3:07ILL Touchdown, up 4 before the tryNumbers favored kick by 2.0 ptsWent for two · convertedKick73.2%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call71.3%−2.045% to convert
- Q4 1:08RUTG Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.4%97% to makeGo for two61.2%−7.245% to convert
- Q4 0:04ILL Touchdown, up 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · failedKick84.3%−2.097% to makeGo for twoTheir call86.3%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartILLDrive 1PUNT12 plays · 28 yds · 3:4943% → 43%
Q1 14:06
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+15
57.3%
PINTON, Fabrizio punt 29 yards to the RU48 out of bounds, clock 14:06. PENALTY RU Roughing the Kicker on LUSARDI, Joe enforced 15 yards from the ILL23 to the ILL38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 13
OWN 48
+5
57.2%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Aidan Laughery for 5 yds to the RUTG 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 2FG12 plays · 65 yds · 5:1757% → 59%
ILLDrive 3PUNT8 plays · 26 yds · 3:5841% → 41%
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
58.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 18 yds to the ILL 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
57.9%
(04:20) ALTMYER, Luke pass to the left complete for 15 yards to CAPKA-JONES, Alexander caught at the RU34 and advanced to the RU26 (LOYAL, Shaquan), clock 04:12. PENALTY ILL Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on HENDERSON, Brandon enforced 5 yards from the RU41 to the RU46 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:17
3RD & 6
OPP 37
-15
57.8%
Illinois Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Personal Foul on PRIESTLY, Melvin enforced (-15 Yards) to the RUTG 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1859% → 58%
Q1 1:28
4TH & 10
OWN 19
+59
57.7%
Jakob Anderson punt for 50 yds , Hank Beatty returns for 59 yds to the RUTG 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5FG4 plays · -1 yds · 0:4843% → 43%
Q1 0:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
57.1%
Luke Altmyer run for a loss of 1 yard to the RUTG 11 Luke Altmyer fumbled, recovered by ILL Luke Altmyer L. Altmyer return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 6TD10 plays · 75 yds · 5:2858% → 67%
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
59.7%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Mike Higgins for 11 yds to the ILL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+11
60.2%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Dymere Miller for 11 yds to the ILL 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
60.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 15 yds to the ILL 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 7TD12 plays · 72 yds · 3:3835% → 42%
Q2 8:37
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+15
65.1%
(08:37) ALTMYER, Luke pass deep to the left incomplete intended for FRANKLIN, Zakhari thrown to the RU40, clock 08:29. PENALTY RU Pass Interference on MASCOE, Bo enforced 15 yards to the ILL44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:48
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+13
64.1%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 13 yds to the RUTG 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:32
3RD & 14
OPP 16
+16
57.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 16 yds for a TD (David Olano PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 8TD18 plays · 75 yds · 5:2161% → 75%
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
60.6%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Kyle Monangai for 7 yds to the RUTG 32Similar
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
62.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 12 yds to the ILL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+11
63.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 11 yds to the ILL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
63.2%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Kyle Monangai for 3 yds to the ILL 21Similar
Q2 0:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
74.6%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 2 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 9END OF HALF2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0630% → 29%
RUTGDrive 10PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 1:4474% → 73%
Q3 13:22
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+15
73.9%
KALIAKMANIS, Athan pass deep to the left incomplete intended for DUFF, KJ thrown to the ILL26, clock 13:22. PENALTY ILL Roughing the Passer on BRIGGS JR., Dennis enforced 15 yards from the RU36 to the ILL49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:14
4TH & 13
OWN 48
0
72.8%
Jakob Anderson punt for 36 yds , Hank Beatty returns for no gain to the ILL 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1828% → 25%
Q3 11:55
4TH & 4
OWN 22
+8
74.9%
Hugh Robertson punt for 37 yds , Christian Dremel returns for 8 yds to the RUTG 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 12FUMBLE5 plays · 14 yds · 2:0477% → 78%
ILLDrive 13TD8 plays · 63 yds · 3:0427% → 45%
Q3 9:09
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+15
72.6%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 15 yds to the RUTG 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+26
72.2%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 26 yds to the RUTG 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
55.4%
Josh McCray run for 4 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 14TD15 plays · 75 yds · 6:4362% → 84%
Q3 5:00
3RD & 12
OWN 41
+15
61.2%
Illinois Penalty, Personal Foul (Gabe Jacas) to the ILL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+5
67.7%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Christian Dremel for 5 yds to the ILL 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:50
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+3
67.2%
KALIAKMANIS, Athan pass up the middle incomplete intended for DUFF, KJ thrown to the ILL0, clock 00:50. PENALTY ILL Holding on PATTERSON, Kaleb enforced half the distance from the goal, 3 yards from the ILL6 to the ILL3 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:0318% → 45%
Q4 14:51
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+64
82.7%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 64 yds to the RUTG 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 16PUNT9 plays · 29 yds · 4:3464% → 66%
Q4 12:33
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
65.2%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Christian Dremel for 6 yds to the RUTG 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
67.6%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Christian Dremel for no gain to the RUTG 38Similar
Q4 10:13
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+13
67.4%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 13 yds to the ILL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:06
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
65.9%
Jakob Anderson punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Hank Beatty at the ILL 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17TD15 plays · 90 yds · 5:4336% → 89%
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
63.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 15 yds to the ILL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:27
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+13
63.5%
ALTMYER, Luke pass deep to the right incomplete intended for BRYANT, Pat thrown to the RU40, clock 07:27. PENALTY RU Pass Interference on LONGERBEAM, Robert enforced at the spot of the foul for 13 yards to the RU45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 11
OPP 46
-15
58.9%
ALTMYER, Luke pass to the right incomplete intended for BRYANT, Pat thrown to the RU34, clock 06:45. PENALTY ILL Pass Interference on BRYANT, Pat enforced 15 yards to the ILL39 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 26
OWN 39
+10
62.9%
Rutgers Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the ILL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
11.2%
Luke Altmyer run for 30 yds for a TD (Luke Altmyer pass to Josh McCray for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 18TD12 plays · 65 yds · 1:5228% → 83%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
27.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Dymere Miller for 10 yds to the RUTG 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+15
28.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 15 yds to the ILL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
82.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Kyle Monangai for 13 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19TD13 plays · 75 yds · 1:0431% → 97%
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
68.6%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Collin Dixon for 11 yds to the ILL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-4
66.0%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Aaron Lewis for a loss of 4 yards to the ILL 32Similar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 14
OWN 32
+21
70.4%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 21 yds to the RUTG 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:34
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+10
63.3%
(00:34) ALTMYER, Luke pass to the right incomplete intended for BRYANT, Pat thrown to the RU38, clock 00:30. PENALTY RU Holding on LONGERBEAM, Robert enforced 10 yards from the RU47 to the RU37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:19
3RD & 8
OPP 35
-5
64.5%
Illinois Penalty, False Start (Alexander Capka-Jones) to the RUTG 40Similar
Q4 0:04
4TH & 13
OPP 40
+40
3.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 40 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:04
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 40 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-72.9
TD · Q4 1:08
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Kyle Monangai for 13 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK)
+56.4
TD · Q4 3:07
Luke Altmyer run for 30 yds for a TD (Luke Altmyer pass to Josh McCray for Two-Point Conversion)
-48.8