Try the model
RUTG

Rutgers 31 at Maryland 17

MD
2024 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2024 · SECU Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MD
modelMD aheadRUTG aheadconfidence bandkey playMD scoreRUTG score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of GameFG-0.1MD 62.0%Jack Howes 48 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 3 · Q1 2:06
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:06 · Jack Howes 48 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 35Home team on offense+0.8Score differential−0.1Pregame prior+9.4Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:37: Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 12 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK) — MD win probability +8.2 pts (now 67%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:01: Kyle Monangai run for 2 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK) — RUTG win probability +11.6 pts (now 52%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:16: Roman Hemby run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Howes KICK) — MD win probability +11.1 pts (now 69%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:14: Kyle Monangai run for 6 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK) — RUTG win probability +21.7 pts (now 59%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:55: Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Dymere Miller for 32 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK) — RUTG win probability +15.7 pts (now 79%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MD made the numbers' call on 6 of 9RUTG made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 14:33RUTG 4th & 11 at RUTG 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:21MD 4th & 2 at RUTG 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    63.2%−0.2
    27% to make
    Punt
    63.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:00MD 4th & 9 at RUTG 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.2%
    64% to make
    Punt
    62.8%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:55RUTG 4th & 6 at RUTG 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:18MD 4th & 1 at MD 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    62.6%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:06MD 4th & 13 at RUTG 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%−0.4
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.2%
    56% to make
    Punt
    61.7%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:57RUTG 4th & 4 at MD 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    36.1%−0.6
    47% to make
    Punt
    35.7%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:38RUTG 4th & 1 at MD 15, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    36.4%−2.0
    83% to make
    Punt
    30.3%−8.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:06MD 4th & 5 at RUTG 42, down 4
    Close callWent for it · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.6%−0.6
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    55.2%
    30% to make
    Punt
    54.6%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:40RUTG 4th & 2 at MD 12, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    35.4%−1.4
    86% to make
    Punt
    25.2%−11.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:28MD 4th & 4 at MD 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−1.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:53RUTG 4th & 9 at MD 28, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%−0.7
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.5%
    60% to make
    Punt
    77.1%−6.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:30MD 4th & 3 at RUTG 24, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.2%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    10.7%
    68% to make
    Punt
    5.4%−5.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:16RUTG 4th & 2 at RUTG 32, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:05MD 4th & 6 at RUTG 19, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.5 ptsWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.0%−2.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    7.5%
    77% to make
    Punt
    3.3%−4.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:05RUTG 4th & 5 at RUTG 39, up 14
    Close callPunted · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.4%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:11MD 4th & 2 at midfield, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.5%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MD made the numbers' call on 2 of 2RUTG made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 8:21RUTG Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:37MD Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:01RUTG Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:16MD Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:14RUTG Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:55RUTG Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
RUTGDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:2538% → 38%
Q1 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
62.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
62.1%
Kyle Monangai run for 4 yds to the RUTG 29Similar
Q1 14:34
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
62.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:33
4TH & 6
OWN 29
-5
62.1%
Rutgers Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the RUTG 24Similar
Q1 14:33
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
62.1%
Jakob Anderson punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 2MISSED FG
11 plays · 37 yds · 3:2662% → 62%
Q1 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
62.1%
Roman Hemby run for 4 yds to the MD 41Similar
Q1 14:07
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+7
62.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Kaden Prather for 7 yds to the MD 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
62.2%
Roman Hemby run for 8 yds to the RUTG 44Similar
Q1 13:04
2ND & 2
OPP 44
0
62.3%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:53
3RD & 2
OPP 44
0
62.3%
Roman Hemby run for no gain to the RUTG 44Similar
Q1 12:21
4TH & 2
OPP 44
+17
62.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 17 yds to the RUTG 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
62.5%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-5
62.5%
Maryland Penalty, Illegal Snap on KALTENBERGER, Josh enforced (-5 Yards) to the RUTG 32Similar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 15
OPP 32
0
62.3%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 15
OPP 32
+6
62.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Nolan Ray for 6 yds to the RUTG 26Similar
Q1 11:00
4TH & 9
OPP 26
+44
62.1%
Jack Howes 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:5738% → 38%
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
61.9%
Kyle Monangai run for 11 yds to the RUTG 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
61.7%
Kyle Monangai run for a loss of 1 yard to the RUTG 36Similar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 11
OWN 36
0
61.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+5
62.0%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Dymere Miller for 5 yds to the RUTG 41Similar
Q1 8:55
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
61.9%
Jakob Anderson punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tai Felton at the MD 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 4FG
14 plays · 50 yds · 6:3462% → 62%
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
61.7%
Roman Hemby run for 8 yds to the MD 28Similar
Q1 8:06
2ND & 2
OWN 28
-5
62.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. sacked by Aaron Lewis for a loss of 5 yards to the MD 23Similar
Q1 7:29
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+15
61.3%
(07:29) EDWARDS JR., Billy pass deep to the left intercepted by LOYAL, Shaquan at the RUT44 intended for FELTON, Tai. Loyal return for 9 yards to the UMD47 (MANNING, Ryan), clock 07:15. PENALTY RUT Pass Interference on SANDERS, Kaj enforced 15 yards to the UMD38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
62.0%
Roman Hemby run for 8 yds to the MD 46Similar
Q1 6:31
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+1
62.5%
Roman Hemby run for 1 yd to the MD 47Similar
Q1 5:52
3RD & 1
OWN 47
0
62.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for no gain to the MD 47Similar
Q1 5:18
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+4
61.9%
Roman Hemby run for 4 yds to the RUTG 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
62.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 4 yds to the RUTG 45Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+3
62.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Roman Hemby for 3 yds to the RUTG 42Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+15
62.6%
Roman Hemby run for 15 yds to the RUTG 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
63.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-3
63.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Nolan Ray for a loss of 3 yards to the RUTG 30Similar
Q1 2:24
3RD & 13
OPP 30
0
62.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:06
4TH & 13
OPP 30
+48
62.0%
Jack Howes 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 5TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 8:4537% → 46%
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
62.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis run for 8 yds to the RUTG 33Similar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-2
62.1%
Kyle Monangai run for a loss of 2 yards to the RUTG 31Similar
Q1 0:59
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+9
62.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 9 yds to the RUTG 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
62.0%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+3
61.4%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Dymere Miller for 3 yds to the MD 47Similar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+5
61.4%
Kyle Monangai run for 5 yds to the MD 42Similar
Q2 13:56
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+2
61.3%
Kyle Monangai run for 2 yds to the MD 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
61.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:48
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+7
61.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ben Black for 7 yds to the MD 33Similar
Q2 12:29
3RD & 3
OPP 33
-1
61.2%
Antwan Raymond run for a loss of 1 yard to the MD 34Similar
Q2 11:57
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+5
62.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 5 yds to the MD 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
60.4%
Kyle Monangai run for 5 yds to the MD 24Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+3
60.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Kyle Monangai for 3 yds to the MD 21Similar
Q2 10:07
3RD & 2
OPP 21
-5
61.0%
Rutgers Penalty, Illegal Snap on ZILINSKAS, Gus enforced (Gus Zilinskas) to the MD 26Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+10
61.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 10 yds to the MD 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
59.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+4
59.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis run for 4 yds to the MD 12Similar
Q2 8:21
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+12
54.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 12 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 6TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:4457% → 67%
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
56.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Dylan Wade for 4 yds to the MD 29Similar
Q2 8:02
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
56.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+16
54.9%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Kaden Prather for 16 yds to the MD 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
57.4%
(07:15) EDWARDS JR., Billy pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for FELTON, Tai broken up by MASCOE, Bo at the RUT5, clock 06:59. PENALTY RUT Holding on SALAAM, Al-Shadee enforced 10 yards from the UMD45 to the RUT45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
58.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Nolan Ray for 3 yds to the RUTG 42Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+15
57.9%
Roman Hemby run for 15 yds to the RUTG 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
58.8%
Roman Hemby run for 9 yds to the RUTG 18Similar
Q2 5:11
2ND & 1
OPP 18
+6
58.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Roman Hemby for 6 yds to the RUTG 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
66.9%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 12 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 7TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:3636% → 52%
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
63.7%
Maryland Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle on HUSKEY, Jalen enforced (Jalen Huskey) to the MD 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
61.1%
Kyle Monangai run for 1 yd to the MD 38Similar
Q2 3:34
2ND & 9
OPP 38
0
61.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:19
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+14
61.4%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Dymere Miller for 14 yds to the MD 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
59.6%
Kyle Monangai run for 7 yds to the MD 17Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+1
59.5%
Kyle Monangai run for 1 yd to the MD 16Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+1
60.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis run for 1 yd to the MD 15Similar
Q2 1:38
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+2
62.2%
Athan Kaliakmanis run for 2 yds to the MD 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
59.8%
(01:10) KALIAKMANIS, Athan pass to the left incomplete intended for STRONG, Ian thrown to the UMD0, clock 01:06. PENALTY UMD Pass Interference on THOMAS, Kevis enforced 11 yards to the UMD2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
48.2%
Kyle Monangai run for 2 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 8DOWNS
12 plays · 36 yds · 0:5554% → 55%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
53.9%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 9 yds to the MD 34Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
56.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 6 yds to the MD 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
55.9%
MJ Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+9
54.5%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Dylan Wade for 9 yds to the MD 49Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+4
54.9%
Roman Hemby run for 4 yds to the RUTG 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+5
55.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Roman Hemby for 5 yds to the RUTG 42Similar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
56.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 5
OPP 42
0
56.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:06
4TH & 5
OPP 42
+3
55.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 3 yds to the RUTG 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 9END OF HALF
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
48.8%
[NHSG] Kneel down by KALIAKMANIS, Athan at RUT34 (team loss of 5), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 10TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:4453% → 69%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
52.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
52.6%
Roman Hemby run for 4 yds to the MD 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+28
52.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Kaden Prather for 28 yds to the RUTG 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
56.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 6 yds to the RUTG 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+3
56.4%
Roman Hemby run for 3 yds to the RUTG 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+32
56.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Roman Hemby for 32 yds to the RUTG 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
58.0%
Roman Hemby run for 1 yd to the RUTG 1Similar
Q3 11:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
69.0%
Roman Hemby run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 11TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:0236% → 59%
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
64.2%
Rutgers Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the RUTG 20Similar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+10
64.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 10 yds to the RUTG 30Similar
Q3 10:34
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
63.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis run for a loss of 1 yard to the RUTG 29Similar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+6
65.0%
(10:05) KALIAKMANIS, Athan pass to the right incomplete intended for STRONG, Ian thrown to the RUT35, clock 09:52. PENALTY UMD Pass Interference on THOMAS, Kevis enforced at the spot of the foul for 6 yards to the RUT35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
63.5%
Kyle Monangai run for 10 yds to the RUTG 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+16
61.6%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Dymere Miller for 16 yds to the MD 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
60.7%
Kyle Monangai run for 3 yds to the MD 36Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+16
60.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 16 yds to the MD 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
58.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis run for a loss of 1 yard to the MD 21Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 11
OPP 21
+9
59.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 9 yds to the MD 12Similar
Q3 5:52
3RD & 2
OPP 12
0
60.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:40
4TH & 2
OPP 12
+6
62.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Dymere Miller for 6 yds to the MD 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
40.9%
Kyle Monangai run for 6 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4548% → 45%
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
48.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
47.8%
Nolan Ray run for 6 yds to the MD 31Similar
Q3 4:29
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
46.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:28
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
45.0%
Bryce McFerson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Christian Dremel at the RUTG 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 13TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 4:2657% → 79%
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-10
42.7%
Rutgers Penalty, Offensive Holding (KJ Duff) to the RUTG 35Similar
Q3 3:49
1ST & 4
OWN 35
+5
41.0%
Antwan Raymond run for 5 yds to the RUTG 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
39.2%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:54
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+7
39.9%
Antwan Raymond run for 7 yds to the RUTG 47Similar
Q3 2:14
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+10
38.2%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Dymere Miller for 10 yds to the MD 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
36.8%
Kyle Monangai run for 1 yd to the MD 42Similar
Q3 0:47
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+10
36.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 10 yds to the MD 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
20.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Dymere Miller for 32 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 14INT
7 plays · 45 yds · 2:1524% → 27%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
23.9%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Preston Howard for 3 yds to the MD 28Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
23.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 10 yds to the MD 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
24.0%
EDWARDS JR., Billy pass deep to the right incomplete intended for PRATHER, Kaden thrown to the RUT30, clock 13:54. PENALTY RUT Pass Interference on ROGERS, Eric enforced 15 yards to the RUT47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
25.8%
Nolan Ray run for 1 yd to the RUTG 46Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 9
OPP 46
0
25.3%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:07
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+16
23.5%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Kaden Prather for 16 yds to the RUTG 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
26.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass intercepted Jordan Thompson return for no gain to the RUTG 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 15FG
7 plays · 44 yds · 2:3080% → 91%
Q4 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
20.3%
Kyle Monangai run for no gain to the RUTG 28Similar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+30
19.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 30 yds to the MD 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+13
15.4%
Athan Kaliakmanis run for 13 yds to the MD 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
14.4%
Kyle Monangai run for 1 yd to the MD 28Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 9
OPP 28
0
14.4%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:02
3RD & 9
OPP 28
0
14.7%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:53
4TH & 9
OPP 28
+46
8.7%
Jai Patel 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 16DOWNS
6 plays · 51 yds · 1:2012% → 11%
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
11.5%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+44
11.3%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Dylan Wade for 44 yds to the RUTG 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
13.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
12.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+7
11.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Preston Howard for 7 yds to the RUTG 24Similar
Q4 8:30
4TH & 3
OPP 24
0
10.5%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:1393% → 94%
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
7.4%
Kyle Monangai run for 2 yds to the RUTG 26Similar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+3
7.3%
Kyle Monangai run for 3 yds to the RUTG 29Similar
Q4 6:59
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+3
6.7%
Antwan Raymond run for 3 yds to the RUTG 32Similar
Q4 6:16
4TH & 2
OWN 32
0
6.0%
Jakob Anderson punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Tai Felton at the MD 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 18DOWNS
10 plays · 61 yds · 2:107% → 5%
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
6.5%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 16 yds to the MD 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
6.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Dylan Wade for 9 yds to the MD 45Similar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+15
7.5%
(05:33) EDWARDS JR., Billy pass deep to the right incomplete intended for FELTON, Tai thrown to the RUT30, clock 05:26. PENALTY RUT Pass Interference on MASCOE, Bo enforced 15 yards to the RUT40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
7.5%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Preston Howard for 5 yds to the RUTG 35Similar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 5
OPP 35
0
8.3%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:03
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+12
7.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 12 yds to the RUTG 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
7.5%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 4 yds to the RUTG 19Similar
Q4 4:12
2ND & 6
OPP 19
0
5.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:09
3RD & 6
OPP 19
0
5.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:05
4TH & 6
OPP 19
0
4.9%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 19PUNT
11 plays · 20 yds · 1:5695% → 98%
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
4.7%
Kyle Monangai run for a loss of 1 yard to the RUTG 18Similar
Q4 3:56
2ND & 11
OWN 18
+16
4.2%
Kyle Monangai run for 16 yds to the RUTG 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
3.3%
Kyle Monangai run for 1 yd to the RUTG 35Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+1
3.2%
Kyle Monangai run for 1 yd to the RUTG 36Similar
Q4 2:53
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+3
3.0%
Kyle Monangai run for 3 yds to the RUTG 39Similar
Q4 2:05
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
2.1%
Jakob Anderson punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 20END OF 4TH QUARTER
12 plays · 71 yds · 1:391% → 2%
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
1.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 7 yds to the MD 32Similar
Q4 1:49
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+10
1.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Dylan Wade for 10 yds to the MD 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
1.5%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+8
1.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:17
3RD & 2
50
0
1.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:11
4TH & 2
50
+6
1.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 6 yds to the RUTG 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+13
1.5%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Roman Hemby for 13 yds to the RUTG 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+10
1.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Dylan Wade for 10 yds to the RUTG 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
1.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Dylan Wade for 6 yds to the RUTG 15Similar
Q4 0:33
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+9
1.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Kaden Prather for 9 yds to the RUTG 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
1.8%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the RUTG 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:14
Kyle Monangai run for 6 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK)
-21.7
TD · Q4 14:55
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Dymere Miller for 32 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK)
-15.7
TD · Q2 1:01
Kyle Monangai run for 2 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK)
-11.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com