Try the model
MSU

Michigan State 16 at Illinois 38

ILL
2024 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2024 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:09 · Ryan Eckley punt for 49 yds , Hank Beatty returns for 12 yds to the ILL 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 111Home team on offense+9.3Score differential+3.1Garbage-time factor+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.9Pregame prior+2.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:06: Josh McCray run for 11 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK) — ILL win probability +4.6 pts (now 64%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:01: Luke Altmyer pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 4 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK) — ILL win probability +8.3 pts (now 82%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:35: Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nate Carter for 5 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK) — MSU win probability +14.7 pts (now 39%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 5:45: David Olano 37 yd FG GOOD — ILL win probability +6.8 pts (now 79%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:30: Josh McCray run for 1 yd for a TD (David Olano KICK) — ILL win probability +5.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 6 of 7MSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 15
  1. Q1 13:18ILL 4th & 9 at ILL 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:56MSU 4th & 14 at MSU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:46MSU 4th & 11 at MSU 48, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:46MSU 4th & 11 at MSU 48, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:49ILL 4th & 10 at ILL 41, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%−1.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:10MSU 4th & 7 at MSU 23, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%−1.0
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:16ILL 4th & 1 at MSU 30, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    67.1%−1.8
    56% to make
    Punt
    66.0%−2.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:02MSU 4th & 10 at ILL 20, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.3%
    75% to make
    Punt
    17.7%−3.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:18ILL 4th & 3 at ILL 27, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.1%−1.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:17MSU 4th & 4 at MSU 48, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    22.6%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:35MSU 4th & 2 at ILL 5, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    20.4%−1.3
    92% to make
    Punt
    13.6%−8.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:45ILL 4th & 8 at MSU 19, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%−1.7
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.4%
    77% to make
    Punt
    58.3%−11.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:09MSU 4th & 2 at MSU 33, down 8
    Close callPunted · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.7%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:09MSU 4th & 2 at MSU 33, down 8
    Close callPunted · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.7%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:44ILL 4th & 10 at ILL 35, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.0%−2.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.5%
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:01MSU 4th & 4 at MSU 21, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%−2.0
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:53ILL 4th & 5 at midfield, up 8
    Close callPunted · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.8%−0.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:46MSU 4th & 2 at MSU 22, down 8
    Close callPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%−0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 12:46MSU 4th & 2 at MSU 22, down 8
    Close callPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%−0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:32MSU 4th & 4 at MSU 31, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:51MSU 4th & 4 at MSU 44, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%
    average punt
  22. Q4 0:16MSU 4th & 15 at MSU 44, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:52ILL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:53MSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    43.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:06ILL Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:01ILL Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:35MSU Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:30ILL Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.1%−0.5
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:56ILL Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1856% → 56%
Q1 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
56.4%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Tanner Arkin for 1 yd to the ILL 27Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 9
OWN 27
0
56.4%
Aidan Laughery run for no gain to the ILL 27Similar
Q1 13:28
3RD & 9
OWN 27
0
56.4%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Tanner ArkinSimilar
Q1 13:18
4TH & 9
OWN 27
+8
56.3%
Fabrizio Pinton punt for 46 yds , Montorie Foster Jr. returns for 8 yds to the MSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:1444% → 43%
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
56.4%
Aidan Chiles run for 9 yds to the MSU 44Similar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+2
56.2%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 2 yds to the MSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
56.3%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Nick MarshSimilar
Q1 12:19
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+3
56.3%
Nate Carter run for 3 yds to the MSU 49Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 7
OWN 49
-7
56.3%
Aidan Chiles sacked by Gabe Jacas for a loss of 7 yards to the MSU 42Similar
Q1 10:56
4TH & 14
OWN 42
+13
56.8%
Ryan Eckley punt for 45 yds , Hank Beatty returns for 13 yds to the ILL 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3TD
3 plays · 74 yds · 0:5757% → 59%
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
56.7%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 12 yds to the ILL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
56.9%
PENALTY MSU Offside (Douse,D'Quan) 5 yards from ILL38 to ILL43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 5
OWN 43
+57
59.2%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 57 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:5242% → 43%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
58.5%
Nate Carter run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSU 23Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+6
59.0%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nate Carter for 6 yds to the MSU 29Similar
Q1 8:27
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+19
59.3%
Aidan Chiles run for 19 yds to the MSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
56.7%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Aziah Johnson for 52 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 6:4157% → 64%
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
56.8%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 1 yd to the ILL 26Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
57.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 6 yds to the ILL 32Similar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+13
57.5%
Luke Altmyer run for 13 yds to the ILL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
58.5%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:24
2ND & 5
50
0
58.8%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Pat BryantSimilar
Q1 5:13
3RD & 5
50
+15
58.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 15 yds to the MSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
59.2%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Tanner Arkin for 5 yds to the MSU 30Similar
Q1 4:18
2ND & 5
OPP 30
-5
59.4%
PENALTY ILL False Start (Arkin,Tanner) 5 yards from MSU30 to MSU35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
59.5%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Carson GodaSimilar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 10
OPP 35
-5
58.9%
(03:50) PENALTY ILL False Start (Priestly,Melvin) 5 yards from MSU35 to MSU40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:35
3RD & 15
OPP 40
+16
58.2%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Alexander Capka-Jones for 16 yds to the MSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
59.8%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 6 yds to the MSU 18Similar
Q1 2:17
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+3
59.6%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 3 yds to the MSU 15Similar
Q1 1:41
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+4
59.2%
Josh McCray run for 4 yds to the MSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
63.9%
Josh McCray run for 11 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 3:1637% → 35%
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
63.3%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Nick MarshSimilar
Q1 0:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
63.4%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 12 yds to the MSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
63.3%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jaron Glover for 12 yds to the MSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
62.5%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 2 yds to the ILL 49Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
62.6%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for no gain to the ILL 49Similar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+3
63.7%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams for 3 yds to the MSU 48Similar
Q2 12:46
4TH & 11
OWN 48
0
65.5%
Ryan Eckley punt for 38 yds , Hank Beatty returns for no gain to the ILL 12Similar
Q2 12:46
4TH & 11
OWN 48
0
65.5%
Ryan Eckley punt for 38 yds , Hank Beatty returns for no gain to the ILL 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:5064% → 63%
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
64.2%
Aidan Laughery run for 11 yds to the ILL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
65.6%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Pat BryantSimilar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
65.1%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Hank BeattySimilar
Q2 11:56
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
64.4%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Hank BeattySimilar
Q2 11:49
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
63.4%
Fabrizio Pinton punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Montorie Foster Jr. at the MSU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 3:3334% → 31%
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+11
65.6%
Aidan Chiles run for 11 yds to the MSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
65.7%
Aidan Chiles sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the MSU 18Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+8
66.4%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Aziah Johnson for 8 yds to the MSU 26Similar
Q2 9:29
3RD & 4
OWN 26
-13
67.0%
(09:37) Shotgun Chiles,Aidan pass complete short right to Johnson,Aziah caught at MSU34, for 11 yards to the MSU37 (Scott,Xavier) PENALTY MSU Pass Interference (Marsh,Nick) 13 yards from MSU26 to MSU13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:59
3RD & 17
OWN 13
+10
67.9%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Aziah Johnson for 10 yds to the MSU 23Similar
Q2 8:10
4TH & 7
OWN 23
+4
68.9%
Ryan Eckley punt for 45 yds , Hank Beatty returns for 4 yds to the ILL 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 9TD
12 plays · 64 yds · 6:0368% → 82%
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
67.6%
Josh McCray run for 4 yds to the ILL 40Similar
Q2 7:42
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+21
68.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Josh McCray for 6 yds to the MSU 46 for a 1ST down Michigan State Penalty, Personal Foul (Ben Roberts) to the MSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
69.1%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Ca'Lil Valentine for 2 yds to the MSU 37Similar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+5
69.3%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 5 yds to the MSU 32Similar
Q2 5:59
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+2
69.1%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 2 yds to the MSU 30Similar
Q2 5:16
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+2
68.9%
Luke Altmyer run for 2 yds to the MSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
71.1%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Tanner ArkinSimilar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+11
71.1%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Tanner Arkin for 11 yds to the MSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
71.5%
Aidan Laughery run for 4 yds to the MSU 13Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+9
71.9%
Aidan Laughery run for 9 yds to the MSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
73.2%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Carson GodaSimilar
Q2 2:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
81.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 4 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 0:5421% → 26%
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
78.8%
Nate Carter run for 6 yds to the MSU 31Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
76.8%
Aidan Chiles run for 8 yds to the MSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
76.7%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 7 yds to the MSU 46Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+19
75.8%
Aidan Chiles run for 19 yds to the ILL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
74.2%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 15 yds to the ILL 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
73.8%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Nick MarshSimilar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
74.4%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Nick MarshSimilar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 10
OPP 20
0
75.4%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Kay'Ron Lynch-AdamsSimilar
Q2 1:02
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+38
74.0%
Jonathan Kim 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:3576% → 75%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
76.1%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 4 yds to the ILL 24Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+3
76.2%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 3 yds to the ILL 27Similar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
75.5%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
Q2 0:18
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
74.8%
Fabrizio Pinton punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Montorie Foster Jr. at the MSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
74.5%
A. Chiles takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:1324% → 39%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
76.4%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 17 yds to the MSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
75.9%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 4 yds to the MSU 46Similar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+4
75.3%
Montorie Foster Jr. run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:03
3RD & 2
50
-2
75.7%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSU 48Similar
Q3 12:17
4TH & 4
OWN 48
+10
77.3%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 10 yds to the ILL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+29
76.5%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 29 yds to the ILL 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
75.3%
Nate Carter run for 8 yds to the ILL 5Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 2
OPP 5
0
75.6%
Aidan Chiles run for no gain to the ILL 5Similar
Q3 9:41
3RD & 2
OPP 5
0
77.3%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Aziah JohnsonSimilar
Q3 9:35
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+5
61.4%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nate Carter for 5 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14FG
9 plays · 56 yds · 3:4468% → 79%
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
68.1%
Aidan Laughery run for a loss of 1 yard to the ILL 24Similar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+8
67.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 8 yds to the ILL 32Similar
Q3 8:14
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
68.0%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 7 yds to the ILL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+40
70.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 40 yds to the MSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
72.6%
Aidan Laughery run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 22Similar
Q3 6:32
2ND & 11
OPP 22
+3
72.7%
Luke Altmyer run for 3 yds to the MSU 19Similar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 8
OPP 19
0
72.0%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Pat BryantSimilar
Q3 5:45
4TH & 8
OPP 19
+37
78.8%
David Olano 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:3024% → 23%
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
76.2%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 6 yds to the MSU 31Similar
Q3 5:07
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
75.1%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 2 yds to the MSU 33Similar
Q3 4:23
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
76.5%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:09
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+12
77.5%
Ryan Eckley punt for 49 yds , Hank Beatty returns for 12 yds to the ILL 30Similar
Q3 4:09
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+12
77.5%
Ryan Eckley punt for 49 yds , Hank Beatty returns for 12 yds to the ILL 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2181% → 79%
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
80.7%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Tanner ArkinSimilar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
80.4%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Josh McCraySimilar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
79.5%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Hank BeattySimilar
Q3 3:44
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
78.7%
Fabrizio Pinton punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Montorie Foster Jr. at the MSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2420% → 18%
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
79.6%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 5 yds to the MSU 20Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+1
80.0%
Nate Carter run for 1 yd to the MSU 21Similar
Q3 2:14
3RD & 4
OWN 21
0
81.3%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Montorie Foster Jr.Similar
Q3 2:01
4TH & 4
OWN 21
+19
82.1%
Ryan Eckley punt for 53 yds , Hank Beatty returns for 19 yds to the ILL 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:0184% → 83%
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
84.1%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 2 yds to the ILL 47Similar
Q3 1:14
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+2
84.4%
Aidan Laughery run for 2 yds to the ILL 49Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+1
83.9%
Luke Altmyer run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 5
50
0
83.1%
Hugh Robertson punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Montorie Foster Jr. at the MSU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:5418% → 16%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-3
82.0%
Aidan Chiles sacked by Seth Coleman for a loss of 3 yards to the MSU 11Similar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 13
OWN 11
0
82.6%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Brennan Parachek for no gain to the MSU 11Similar
Q4 12:59
3RD & 13
OWN 11
+11
83.9%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 11 yds to the MSU 22Similar
Q4 12:46
4TH & 2
OWN 22
+25
83.9%
Ryan Eckley punt for 42 yds , Hank Beatty returns for 25 yds to the MSU 39Similar
Q4 12:46
4TH & 2
OWN 22
+25
83.9%
Ryan Eckley punt for 42 yds , Hank Beatty returns for 25 yds to the MSU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 20TD
9 plays · 49 yds · 4:5887% → 98%
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
86.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Collin Dixon for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 11
50
+1
86.7%
Luke Altmyer run for 1 yd to the MSU 49 Luke Altmyer fumbled, recovered by ILL Luke AltmyerSimilar
Q4 11:10
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+32
85.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 32 yds to the MSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
88.3%
Aidan Laughery run for 8 yds to the MSU 9Similar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+3
88.9%
Josh McCray run for 3 yds to the MSU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
89.3%
Aidan Laughery run for 2 yds to the MSU 4Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
90.3%
Aidan Laughery run for 3 yds to the MSU 1Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.2%
Josh McCray run for 1 yd for a TD (David Olano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21DOWNS
12 plays · 13 yds · 3:126% → 3%
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
94.4%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 24 yds to the MSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
93.8%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Jack VellingSimilar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+8
93.9%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nate Carter for 8 yds to the ILL 43Similar
Q4 6:02
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+3
93.8%
Nate Carter run for 3 yds to the ILL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
94.3%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 12 yds to the ILL 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
94.9%
(04:49) Chiles,Aidan pass incomplete short right thrown to ILL25 PENALTY MSU Intentional Grounding offsetting ILL Holding offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
94.9%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Jack VellingSimilar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-15
95.3%
Michigan State Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Luke Newman) to the ILL 43Similar
Q4 4:19
3RD & 25
OPP 43
-9
96.1%
Aidan Chiles sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the MSU 48Similar
Q4 4:06
4TH & 34
OWN 48
-10
96.6%
Aidan Chiles sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the MSU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 22TD
5 plays · 38 yds · 1:5599% → 100%
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+30
99.2%
Josh McCray run for 30 yds to the MSU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
99.4%
Josh McCray run for 7 yds to the MSU 1Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.4%
Josh McCray run for no gain to the MSU 1Similar
Q4 1:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.7%
Josh McCray run for 1 yd for a TD (David Olano KICK) (David Olano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23DOWNS
14 plays · 28 yds · 1:350% → 0%
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.6%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Jack VellingSimilar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.6%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 6 yds to the MSU 31Similar
Q4 1:41
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
99.6%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Nick MarshSimilar
Q4 1:32
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+7
99.6%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nate Carter for 7 yds to the MSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
99.6%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nate Carter for 3 yds to the MSU 41Similar
Q4 1:03
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
99.6%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Alante BrownSimilar
Q4 0:59
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+3
99.6%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 3 yds to the MSU 44Similar
Q4 0:51
4TH & 4
OWN 44
+5
99.6%
Aidan Chiles run for 5 yds to the MSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.6%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Nate CarterSimilar
Q4 0:36
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
99.6%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Jack VellingSimilar
Q4 0:26
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
99.6%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Nate CarterSimilar
Q4 0:26
4TH & 10
OWN 49
-5
99.6%
PENALTY MSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from MSU49 to MSU44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:16
4TH & 15
OWN 44
+9
99.6%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams for 9 yds to the ILL 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
99.8%
K. Michaux takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:35
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nate Carter for 5 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK)
-14.7
TD · Q2 2:01
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 4 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)
+8.3
FG · Q3 5:45
David Olano 37 yd FG GOOD
+6.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com