2024 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2024 · Ohio Stadium
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Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadPUR aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scorePUR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:50 · Spencer Porath 38 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 8:30: Will Howard pass complete to Gee Scott Jr. for 15 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK) — OSU win probability +0.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 1:40: TreVeyon Henderson run for 16 yds to the PUR 43 for a 1ST down — OSU win probability +1.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:27: Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 17 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK) — OSU win probability +1.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 8:34: Jayden Fielding 42 yd FG GOOD — OSU win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:07: TreVeyon Henderson run for 19 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK) — OSU win probability +0.9 pts (now 100%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 7PUR made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 12:17PUR 4th & 5 at PUR 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snapGo for it2.0%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%average punt
- Q1 9:43OSU 4th & 3 at OSU 40, tiedClose callPunted · 97.7% before the snapGo for it97.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 8:01PUR 4th & 9 at PUR 13, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snapGo for it2.5%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.6%average punt
- Q1 6:02OSU 4th & 1 at PUR 1, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.1%59% to convertField goal96.9%−0.294% to makePunt96.4%−0.7average punt
- Q1 0:12PUR 4th & 3 at OSU 3, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 3.5% before the snapGo for it3.5%44% to convertField goalTheir call3.4%−0.193% to makePunt2.9%−0.6average punt
- Q2 15:00OSU 4th & 1 at PUR 44, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.7%70% to convertField goal96.5%−0.227% to makePunt96.5%−0.2average punt
- Q2 1:40PUR 4th & 3 at OSU 36, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.1%53% to convertField goal3.9%−0.242% to makePunt3.8%−0.3average punt
- Q3 8:34OSU 4th & 13 at PUR 23, up 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.6% before the snapGo for it98.4%−0.219% to convertField goalTheir call98.6%70% to makePunt98.0%−0.5average punt
- Q3 2:03PUR 4th & 5 at PUR 30, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 9:50PUR 4th & 8 at OSU 20, down 45Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.132% to convertField goalTheir call0.1%75% to makePunt-0.2%−0.3average punt
- Q4 7:38OSU 4th & 3 at OSU 38, up 45Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it100.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 6:01PUR 4th & 15 at PUR 13, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.116% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 3:43OSU 4th & 10 at PUR 35, up 45Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%−<0.130% to convertField goal99.9%45% to makePunt99.9%−0.1average punt
- Q4 3:43OSU 4th & 10 at PUR 35, up 45Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%−<0.130% to convertField goal99.9%45% to makePunt99.9%−0.1average punt
- Q4 1:51PUR 4th & 5 at OSU 39, down 45Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%42% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.136% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 6:02OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.4%97% to makeGo for two97.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:30OSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.9%97% to makeGo for two96.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:27OSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.7%97% to makeGo for two98.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:07OSU Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:59OSU Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:05OSU Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartPURDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 2:432% → 2%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 34
+9
98.4%
Hudson Card pass complete to Devin Mockobee for 9 yds to the PUR 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 2PUNT6 plays · 34 yds · 2:3498% → 98%
Q1 12:17
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+25
98.1%
Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 25 yds to the OSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+7
98.1%
Will Howard pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 7 yds to the OSU 40Similar
Q1 9:43
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
97.8%
Joe McGuire punt for 48 yds , Andrew Sowinski returns for no gain to the PUR 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 3PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 1:422% → 2%
Q1 8:01
4TH & 9
OWN 13
0
97.6%
Keelan Crimmins punt blocked by Caden Curry blocked by Caden Curry Crimmins,Keelan punt 0 yards to the PUR13 blocked by Curry,Caden recovered by PUR Furtney,Ben at PUR06 Furtney,Ben rush right for 5 yards loss to the PUR08 (McClain,Jaylen; Hicks,C.J.).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 4TD4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5998% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 5MISSED FG12 plays · 72 yds · 5:502% → 3%
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.6%
Hudson Card pass complete to Devin Mockobee for 5 yds to the PUR 30Similar
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
97.5%
Hudson Card pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 15 yds to the OSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
97.5%
Hudson Card pass complete to Max Klare for 11 yds to the OSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 6TD13 plays · 80 yds · 6:4297% → 97%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
96.9%
Will Howard pass complete to TreVeyon Henderson for 6 yds to the OSU 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+9
97.0%
Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 9 yds to the OSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 39
+1
96.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Carnell Tate for 1 yd to the OSU 40Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 40
+17
96.8%
Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 17 yds to the PUR 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
97.0%
Will Howard pass complete to TreVeyon Henderson for 5 yds to the PUR 38Similar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
97.3%
Will Howard pass complete to Gee Scott Jr. for 15 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 7DOWNS17 plays · 34 yds · 6:503% → 4%
OSUDrive 8TD7 plays · 59 yds · 1:1397% → 99%
Q2 1:40
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+9
96.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 9 yds to the PUR 34Similar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-9
97.0%
Will Howard sacked by Cole Brevard for a loss of 9 yards to the PUR 28Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 19
OPP 28
+11
96.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 11 yds to the PUR 17Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+17
98.7%
Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 17 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 9END OF HALF3 plays · 8 yds · 0:272% → 2%
OSUDrive 10FG14 plays · 59 yds · 6:2199% → 99%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+19
98.6%
Will Howard pass complete to Jelani Thurman for 19 yds to the OSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+5
98.7%
Will Howard pass complete to Carnell Tate for 5 yds to the OSU 45Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+14
98.7%
Will Howard pass complete to Carnell Tate for 14 yds to the PUR 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
98.7%
Will Howard pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 6 yds to the PUR 33Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+12
98.7%
Will Howard pass complete to Carnell Tate for 12 yds to the PUR 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+7
98.7%
Will Howard pass complete to Carnell Tate for 7 yds to the PUR 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 11INT7 plays · 53 yds · 2:341% → 1%
Q3 6:00
4TH & 6
OPP 36
+14
98.8%
Shotgun Card,Hudson pass incomplete deep right to Edrine,Jahmal thrown to OSU15 PENALTY OSU Pass Interference (Igbinosun,Davison) 14 yards from OSU36 to OSU22, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 12TD5 plays · 76 yds · 2:3699% → 100%
PURDrive 13FUMBLE RETURN TD2 plays · -14 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:560% → 0%
Q3 2:03
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Brandon Inniss at the OSU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 15TD6 plays · 74 yds · 2:58100% → 100%
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+17
99.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Carnell Tate for 17 yds to the PUR 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+32
99.9%
Will Howard pass complete to TreVeyon Henderson for 32 yds to the PUR 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 10 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 16MISSED FG11 plays · 55 yds · 4:150% → 0%
Q4 14:05
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+29
99.9%
Hudson Card pass complete to Shamar Rigby for 29 yds to the OSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 17 yds · 2:12100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 18PUNT4 plays · -5 yds · 1:370% → 0%
OSUDrive 19DOWNS8 plays · 17 yds · 2:18100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 20DOWNS7 plays · 28 yds · 1:520% → 0%
Q4 3:43
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+15
100.0%
Shotgun Browne,Ryan pass incomplete deep right to Sowinski,Andrew thrown to OSU37 broken up by Styles Jr.,Lorenzo PENALTY OSU Pass Interference (Styles Jr.,Lorenzo) 15 yards from PUR41 to OSU44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 21END OF GAME3 plays · 9 yds · 1:51100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:27
Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 17 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
+1.8
KEY PLAY · Q2 1:40
TreVeyon Henderson run for 16 yds to the PUR 43 for a 1ST down
+1.2
TD · Q3 3:07
TreVeyon Henderson run for 19 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
+0.9