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Win probability · UCLA
modelUCLA aheadIOWA aheadconfidence bandkey playUCLA scoreIOWA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:35 · (00:35) Kneel down by TEAM at IOWA19 (team loss of 2), clock 00:30.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 8:05: Ethan Garbers pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 2 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK) — UCLA win probability +8.2 pts (now 43%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:55: Ethan Garbers pass complete to Logan Loya for 29 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK) — UCLA win probability +12.8 pts (now 59%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:27: Kamari Moulton run for 1 yd for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK) — IOWA win probability +30.5 pts (now 59%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 11:26: Keegan Jones run for 2 yds to the UCLA 27 — UCLA win probability +12.6 pts (now 54%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
- FG · Q4 4:49: Mateen Bhaghani 27 yd FG GOOD — UCLA win probability +13.2 pts (now 74%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UCLA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4IOWA made the numbers' call on 1 of 4
- Q1 0:55IOWA 4th & 2 at UCLA 6, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 66.2% before the snapGo for it66.1%52% to convertField goalTheir call65.4%−0.691% to makePunt62.3%−3.7average punt
- Q2 11:41UCLA 4th & 10 at IOWA 39, down 10Close callKicked a field goal · 31.3% before the snapGo for it31.1%30% to convertField goalTheir call31.0%−0.136% to makePunt31.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 1:59IOWA 4th & 11 at IOWA 19, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 55.2% before the snapGo for it53.2%−1.725% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.0%average punt
- Q3 12:52IOWA 4th & 1 at IOWA 34, down 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 39.5% before the snapGo for it40.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.0%−1.9average punt
- Q3 11:19UCLA 4th & 7 at UCLA 19, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.8% before the snapGo for it59.2%−1.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.3%average punt
- Q3 4:06UCLA 4th & 12 at IOWA 38, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.7% before the snapGo for it69.2%−0.624% to convertField goalTheir call69.8%38% to makePunt69.7%−0.1average punt
- Q4 4:49UCLA 4th & 9 at IOWA 9, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.1% before the snapGo for it51.1%−3.525% to convertField goalTheir call54.6%89% to makePunt30.0%−24.6average punt
- Q4 4:02IOWA 4th & 6 at IOWA 29, down 3Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 29.3% before the snapGo for it24.8%39% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.3%−1.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCLA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2IOWA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 11:44IOWA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.6%97% to makeGo for two64.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:05UCLA Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call40.6%97% to makeGo for two40.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:55UCLA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call56.2%97% to makeGo for two56.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:27IOWA Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call44.9%97% to makeGo for two44.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUCLADrive 1INT4 plays · -4 yds · 1:2930% → 31%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
30.0%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Keegan Jones for 4 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-14
30.3%
GARBERS, Ethan pass to the right incomplete intended for MOKIAO-ATIMALALA, Titus thrown to the UCLA36; QB hurried by HIGGINS, Jay, clock 14:20. PENALTY UCLA Pass Interference on GILMER, Kwazi enforced half the distance from the goal, 14 yards to the UCLA15 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
30.6%
Ethan Garbers pass intercepted Zach Lutmer return for no gain to the UCLA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 2TD4 plays · 41 yds · 1:4469% → 70%
Q1 12:50
2ND & 13
OPP 44
+10
30.9%
(12:50) JOHNSON, Kaleb rush to the left for no gain to the UCLA44 (SCHWESINGER, Carson), clock 12:48. PENALTY UCLA Holding on HAVILI KAUFUSI, Sitiveni enforced 10 yards from the UCLA44 to the UCLA34 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+32
30.9%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Jacob Gill for 32 yds to the UCLA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 3INT15 plays · 72 yds · 6:4431% → 33%
Q1 10:57
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-3
30.6%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Keegan Jones for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 25Similar
Q1 10:25
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+23
30.4%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Logan Loya for 23 yds to the UCLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+3
31.7%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Jalen Berger for 3 yds to the IOWA 30Similar
Q1 7:42
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+10
31.5%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Jalen Berger for 10 yds to the IOWA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
3RD & 11
OPP 21
+16
31.7%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Bryce Pierre for 16 yds to the IOWA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
32.5%
Ethan Garbers pass intercepted, touchback. Quinn Schulte return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 4FG7 plays · 74 yds · 3:5369% → 70%
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-6
30.8%
Brendan Sullivan sacked by Devin Kirkwood and Kain Medrano for a loss of 6 yards to the IOWA 14Similar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 16
OWN 14
+59
31.0%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Jacob Gill for 59 yds to the UCLA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
29.7%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Seth Anderson for 5 yds to the UCLA 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 5FG11 plays · 36 yds · 4:1329% → 31%
Q2 14:11
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+9
29.5%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Bryce Pierre for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 6INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
30.8%
Brendan Sullivan pass intercepted Carson Schwesinger return 13 yards to the IOWA 30. UCLA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the UCLA 42 for a 1ST down.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 7TD6 plays · 45 yds · 3:1933% → 43%
Q2 8:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
42.5%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 2 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 8FUMBLE4 plays · 18 yds · 0:4063% → 64%
Q2 7:35
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+12
38.6%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Dayton Howard for 12 yds to the IOWA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
36.0%
Brendan Sullivan run for 7 yds to the IOWA 41 Brendan Sullivan fumbled, recovered by UCLA Kain Medrano K. Medrano return for 12 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 9FUMBLE8 plays · 41 yds · 3:3343% → 46%
Q2 6:35
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+6
43.7%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Kwazi Gilmer for 6 yds to the IOWA 33Similar
Q2 5:36
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+10
43.8%
(05:36) GARBERS, Ethan pass to the left incomplete intended for MOKIAO-ATIMALALA, Titus thrown to the IOWA26, clock 05:34. PENALTY IOWA Holding on LUTMER, Zach enforced 10 yards from the IOWA38 to the IOWA28 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+9
45.3%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to T.J. Harden for 9 yds to the IOWA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+9
46.1%
Ethan Garbers run for 9 yds Ethan Garbers fumbled, recovered by IOWA Jaden Harrell at the IOWA 0. J. Harrell return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 10PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2161% → 58%
Q2 2:22
3RD & 8
OWN 22
-3
40.8%
Brendan Sullivan sacked by Oluwafemi Oladejo for a loss of 3 yards to the IOWA 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 11TD5 plays · 56 yds · 0:5545% → 59%
IOWADrive 12END OF HALF8 plays · 50 yds · 0:1344% → 46%
IOWADrive 13PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0744% → 40%
Q3 12:52
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
59.6%
Rhys Dakin punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Logan Loya at the UCLA 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 14PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2760% → 59%
IOWADrive 15INT5 plays · 24 yds · 2:2241% → 40%
UCLADrive 16MISSED FG9 plays · 31 yds · 4:2967% → 71%
Q3 7:53
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+12
68.5%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Logan Loya for 12 yds to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+19
71.0%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Logan Loya for 19 yds to the IOWA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:44
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-10
73.0%
(05:44) HARDEN, T.J. rush to the left for no gain to the IOWA36 (HURKETT, Ethan), clock 05:41. PENALTY UCLA Holding on CARLIN, Josh enforced 10 yards from the IOWA36 to the IOWA46. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:44
3RD & 17
OPP 43
+5
71.2%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Keegan Jones for 5 yds to the IOWA 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 17TD15 plays · 61 yds · 7:3134% → 59%
Q3 2:04
2ND & 12
OPP 46
-10
66.8%
(02:04) JOHNSON, Kaleb rush to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the UCLA43 (OLADEJO, Oluwafemi), clock 01:58. PENALTY IOWA Holding on STEPHENS, Beau enforced 10 yards from the UCLA46 to the IOWA44 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:38
2ND & 22
OWN 44
+3
70.6%
Jackson Stratton pass complete to Jacob Gill for 3 yds to the IOWA 47Similar
Q3 0:27
4TH & 5
OPP 39
+15
70.3%
(00:27) STEVENS, Drew field goal attempt from 57 yards GOOD [kick was spotted at UCLA47], score nullified by penalty, clock 00:25. PENALTY UCLA Personal Foul on ADDISON, Bryan enforced 15 yards from the UCLA39 to the UCLA24 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [FG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:20
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+10
69.5%
Jackson Stratton pass complete to Jacob Gill for 10 yds to the UCLA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
3RD & 14
OPP 16
+15
75.4%
Jackson Stratton pass complete to Jacob Gill for 15 yds to the UCLA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 18FG14 plays · 66 yds · 6:3754% → 74%
Q4 10:52
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
54.8%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to T.J. Harden for 7 yds to the UCLA 34Similar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+6
56.8%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Jack Pedersen for 6 yds to the IOWA 45Similar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+6
59.2%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Kwazi Gilmer for 6 yds to the IOWA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:34
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+20
60.5%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Kwazi Gilmer for 20 yds to the IOWA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 19PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4232% → 29%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 20END OF GAME9 plays · 40 yds · 3:1380% → 95%
Q4 2:07
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+9
88.7%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 9 yds to the IOWA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-3
92.9%
(01:15) Kneel down by TEAM at IOWA17 (team loss of 3), clock 01:11.Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 13
OPP 17
-2
94.9%
(00:35) Kneel down by TEAM at IOWA19 (team loss of 2), clock 00:30.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:27
Kamari Moulton run for 1 yd for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)
-30.5
FG · Q4 4:49
Mateen Bhaghani 27 yd FG GOOD
+13.2
TD · Q2 0:55
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Logan Loya for 29 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)
+12.8