Try the model
MICH

Michigan 15 at Indiana 20

IU
2024 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2024 · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · IU
modelIU aheadMICH aheadconfidence bandkey playIU scoreMICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:10 · Tommy Doman punt for 43 yds, downed at the IU 4
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialTime remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 87Pregame prior+15.4Home team on offense+11.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.3Garbage-time factor+1.9Score differential+4.3Time remaining+1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:17: Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 7 yds for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK) — IU win probability +2.4 pts (now 81%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:10: Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 36 yds for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK) — IU win probability +7.5 pts (now 87%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 2:20: Nicolas Radicic 40 yd FG GOOD — IU win probability +1.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 8:41: Dominic Zvada 22 yd FG GOOD — MICH win probability +2.2 pts (now 16%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:35: Kalel Mullings 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — MICH win probability +19.3 pts (now 35%) (top driver: Defense has -2 timeouts left).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7MICH made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 12:37IU 4th & 5 at IU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:01MICH 4th & 21 at IU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−0.4
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.6%
    74% to make
    Punt
    18.7%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:28MICH 4th & 6 at MICH 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:58MICH 4th & 10 at MICH 36, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:04IU 4th & 12 at MICH 33, up 11
    Close callWent for it · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.7%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    84.1%
    49% to make
    Punt
    83.6%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:20IU 4th & 13 at MICH 21, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.8%
    74% to make
    Punt
    82.3%−2.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:25MICH 4th & 5 at MICH 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:10MICH 4th & 8 at IU 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:41MICH 4th & 3 at IU 3, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.2%−0.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    6.5%−5.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:18IU 4th & 10 at IU 39, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.0%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:08MICH 4th & 5 at IU 38, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.3%−0.8
    38% to make
    Punt
    12.2%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:38IU 4th & 26 at IU 9, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%−5.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:35MICH 4th & 1 at IU 1, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    10.8%−5.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    -3.0%−19.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:18IU 4th & 25 at IU 21, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%−14.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:33MICH 4th & 11 at MICH 26, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−2.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:34IU 4th & 6 at MICH 23, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.7%
    70% to make
    Punt
    55.1%−19.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:41MICH 4th & 10 at MICH 33, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.8%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.0%−2.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MICH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 1:17IU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:10IU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 9:35MICH Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    32.6%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    32.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:2383% → 82%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
82.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Myles Price for 7 yds to the IU 32Similar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
82.4%
Justice Ellison run for 2 yds to the IU 34Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
82.2%
Justice Ellison run for 3 yds to the IU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
82.2%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
82.2%
Ty Son Lawton run for 5 yds to the IU 42Similar
Q1 12:43
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
82.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:37
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
81.9%
James Evans punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2FG
16 plays · 66 yds · 7:3018% → 21%
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+13
81.9%
Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 13 yds to the MICH 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
81.6%
Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 9 yds to the MICH 35Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+1
81.2%
Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the MICH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
81.1%
Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the MICH 39Similar
Q1 10:02
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+16
80.9%
Davis Warren pass complete to Fredrick Moore for 16 yds to the IU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
80.5%
Davis Warren run for 1 yd to the IU 44 for a 1ST down Indiana Penalty, Defensive Holding (D'Angelo Ponds) to the IU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
80.1%
Donovan Edwards run for 2 yds to the IU 32Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 8
OPP 32
0
79.9%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+10
80.1%
Davis Warren pass complete to Peyton O'Leary for 10 yds to the IU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+16
79.4%
Davis Warren pass complete to Tyler Morris for 16 yds to the IU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
79.3%
Donovan Edwards run for 2 yds to the IU 4Similar
Q1 6:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
79.1%
Benjamin Hall run for 1 yd to the IU 3Similar
Q1 5:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-18
79.0%
Davis Warren run for a loss of 18 yards to the IU 21 Davis Warren fumbled, recovered by MICH return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q1 5:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 21
+39
79.2%
Dominic Zvada 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 3TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:4478% → 81%
Q1 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
78.3%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 7 yds to the IU 32Similar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+13
78.6%
Ty Son Lawton run for 13 yds to the IU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
78.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 9 yds to the MICH 46Similar
Q1 3:12
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+26
78.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 26 yds to the MICH 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+11
78.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Justice Ellison for 11 yds to the MICH 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
78.4%
Ty Son Lawton run for 2 yds to the MICH 7Similar
Q1 1:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
80.8%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 7 yds for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4920% → 20%
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.9%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
80.0%
Donovan Edwards run for 4 yds to the MICH 29Similar
Q1 0:32
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
79.9%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:28
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+20
80.4%
Tommy Doman punt for 56 yds , Myles Price returns for 20 yds to the IU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 5TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 3:0879% → 87%
Q1 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
78.5%
Ty Son Lawton run for 4 yds to the IU 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+5
79.1%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Justice Ellison for 5 yds to the IU 44Similar
Q2 14:21
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
78.6%
Justice Ellison run for 2 yds to the IU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
78.9%
Justice Ellison run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 6
50
+5
78.8%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 5 yds to the MICH 45Similar
Q2 12:47
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+9
79.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Myles Price for 9 yds to the MICH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
87.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 36 yds for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 2:0816% → 14%
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
83.7%
Benjamin Hall run for 5 yds to the MICH 28Similar
Q2 11:33
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+3
83.4%
Benjamin Hall run for 3 yds to the MICH 31Similar
Q2 10:54
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+5
84.8%
Alex Orji run for 5 yds to the MICH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
84.7%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
84.9%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:07
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
85.3%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:58
4TH & 10
OWN 36
+7
85.7%
Tommy Doman punt for 46 yds , Myles Price returns for 7 yds to the IU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 7DOWNS
7 plays · 42 yds · 2:4588% → 88%
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
88.2%
Ty Son Lawton run for 3 yds to the IU 28Similar
Q2 9:12
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+41
88.3%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 41 yds to the MICH 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-6
89.0%
Kurtis Rourke sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the MICH 37 Kurtis Rourke fumbled, recovered by IU Mike Katic , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 9:12
2ND & 16
OPP 37
+4
88.8%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Justice Ellison for 4 yds to the MICH 33Similar
Q2 7:09
3RD & 12
OPP 33
0
88.8%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:04
4TH & 12
OPP 33
0
88.2%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8FUMBLE
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:2114% → 10%
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
86.1%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:04
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+6
86.3%
Kalel Mullings run for 6 yds to the MICH 39Similar
Q2 7:04
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+13
86.0%
Davis Warren pass complete to Tyler Morris for 13 yds to the IU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-4
85.5%
Alex Orji run for a loss of 4 yards to the MICH 48 Alex Orji fumbled, recovered by IU Mikail Kamara M. Kamara return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
89.6%
ROURKE, Kurtis pass deep to the left incomplete intended for COOPER JR., Omar thrown to the MIC25. PENALTY MIC Pass Interference on PAIGE, Makari enforced 15 yards to the MIC33 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 9FG
6 plays · 27 yds · 3:2390% → 90%
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
89.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Zach Horton for 15 yds to the MICH 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
88.3%
Ty Son Lawton run for a loss of 1 yard to the MICH 19Similar
Q2 5:43
2ND & 11
OPP 19
+6
88.3%
Ty Son Lawton run for 6 yds to the MICH 13Similar
Q2 5:43
3RD & 5
OPP 13
-16
87.7%
ROURKE, Kurtis pass to the right complete for 11 yards to PRICE, Myles caught at the MIC7 and advanced to the MIC2 (HILLMAN, Brandyn). PENALTY IND Pass Interference on COOPER JR., Omar enforced 16 yards to the MIC29 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:43
3RD & 21
OPP 29
+8
88.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 8 yds to the MICH 21Similar
Q2 2:20
4TH & 13
OPP 21
+40
89.8%
Nicolas Radicic 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 0:4911% → 10%
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-10
88.9%
(02:14) WARREN, Davis pass short to the right complete for 13 yards to BELL, Kendrick caught at the MIC34 and advanced to the MIC42 (JOHNSON, Jamier), out of bounds. PENALTY MIC Holding on GIUDICE, Dominick enforced 10 yards from the MIC29 to the MIC19 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 20
OWN 19
0
89.8%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 20
OWN 19
+6
90.0%
Davis Warren pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 6 yds to the MICH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
89.5%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
89.7%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+5
90.0%
(01:38) WARREN, Davis pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for LOVELAND, Colston thrown to the IND41, clock 01:35. PENALTY IND Offsides on CARPENTER, James enforced 5 yards from the MIC40 to the MIC45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
89.7%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:25
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
90.0%
Tommy Doman punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:3891% → 91%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
91.3%
Justice Ellison run for 4 yds to the IU 24Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-3
91.4%
Justice Ellison run for a loss of 3 yards to the IU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 3:4213% → 13%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
87.5%
Kalel Mullings run for 4 yds to the MICH 44Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+7
87.1%
Donovan Edwards run for 7 yds to the IU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
87.0%
Kalel Mullings run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 11
50
+4
87.5%
Kalel Mullings run for 4 yds to the IU 46Similar
Q3 12:13
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+4
87.4%
Kalel Mullings run for 4 yds to the IU 42Similar
Q3 11:21
4TH & 3
OPP 42
-5
87.9%
Michigan Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the IU 47Similar
Q3 11:10
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
87.4%
Tommy Doman punt for 43 yds, downed at the IU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 13INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-1
89.2%
Kurtis Rourke pass intercepted Zeke Berry return for 1 yd to the IU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 2:1815% → 16%
Q3 10:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
85.2%
Benjamin Hall run for no gain to the IU 7Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
85.2%
Donovan Edwards run for 4 yds to the IU 3Similar
Q3 9:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
85.9%
Alex Orji run for no gain to the IU 3Similar
Q3 8:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+22
83.7%
Dominic Zvada 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:2387% → 87%
Q3 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
87.3%
Ty Son Lawton run for 9 yds to the IU 34Similar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
87.3%
Ty Son Lawton run for 5 yds to the IU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
88.2%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
87.9%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:23
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
87.3%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:18
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
86.5%
James Evans punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Semaj Morgan at the MICH 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16FG
12 plays · 44 yds · 7:0316% → 17%
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
84.3%
Davis Warren pass complete to Kendrick Bell for 8 yds to the MICH 26Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 2
OWN 26
0
83.6%
Donovan Edwards run for no gain to the MICH 26Similar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+7
84.8%
Donovan Edwards run for 7 yds to the MICH 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
83.8%
Davis Warren pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 2 yds to the MICH 35Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+9
84.8%
Davis Warren pass complete to Kalel Mullings for 9 yds to the MICH 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
84.7%
Donovan Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the MICH 43Similar
Q3 3:04
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+9
85.5%
Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 9 yds to the IU 48Similar
Q3 2:23
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+5
84.8%
Kalel Mullings run for 5 yds to the IU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
83.8%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:39
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+4
84.0%
Kalel Mullings run for 4 yds to the IU 39Similar
Q3 0:53
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+1
84.4%
Kalel Mullings run for 1 yd to the IU 38Similar
Q3 0:08
4TH & 5
OPP 38
+56
82.8%
Dominic Zvada 56 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -16 yds · 1:3088% → 88%
Q3 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
88.3%
Kurtis Rourke sacked by TJ Guy for a loss of 7 yards to the IU 18Similar
Q4 14:58
2ND & 17
OWN 18
-4
88.1%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Kaelon Black for a loss of 4 yards to the IU 14Similar
Q4 14:19
3RD & 21
OWN 14
-5
88.6%
Kurtis Rourke sacked by TJ Guy for a loss of 5 yards to the IU 9Similar
Q4 13:38
4TH & 26
OWN 9
0
87.7%
James Evans punt for 25 yds, downed at the IU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18TD
7 plays · 34 yds · 3:5422% → 35%
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
78.1%
Donovan Edwards run for 8 yds to the IU 26Similar
Q4 12:51
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+3
80.3%
Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the IU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
80.3%
Indiana Penalty, Personal Foul (Tyrique Tucker) to the IU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
80.3%
Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the IU 6Similar
Q4 11:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
81.9%
Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the IU 3Similar
Q4 10:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
84.6%
Kalel Mullings run for 2 yds to the IU 1Similar
Q4 9:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
65.3%
Kalel Mullings 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · -4 yds · 2:1573% → 69%
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
73.4%
Justice Ellison run for 2 yds to the IU 27Similar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
73.3%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:53
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
71.3%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 9 yds to the IU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
74.7%
Justice Ellison run for a loss of 1 yard to the IU 35Similar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 11
OWN 35
0
73.2%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 11
OWN 35
-14
71.3%
Kurtis Rourke sacked by Jaishawn Barham for a loss of 14 yards to the IU 21Similar
Q4 7:18
4TH & 25
OWN 21
0
69.2%
James Evans punt for 52 yds , Semaj Morgan returns for no gain to the MICH 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:3432% → 30%
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
67.9%
Donovan Edwards run for no gain to the MICH 27Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-1
67.2%
Davis Warren pass complete to Kalel Mullings for a loss of 1 yard to the MICH 26Similar
Q4 5:39
3RD & 11
OWN 26
0
68.6%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:33
4TH & 11
OWN 26
+22
70.0%
Tommy Doman punt for 35 yds , Ke'Shawn Williams returns for 22 yds to the MICH 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 21FG
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:4679% → 78%
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
78.6%
Ty Son Lawton run for 1 yd to the MICH 38Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+11
79.2%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 11 yds to the MICH 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
80.8%
Ty Son Lawton run for no gain to the MICH 27Similar
Q4 3:22
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+4
79.9%
Justice Ellison run for 4 yds to the MICH 23Similar
Q4 2:44
3RD & 6
OPP 23
0
79.4%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:34
4TH & 6
OPP 23
+41
78.4%
Nicolas Radicic 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 22DOWNS
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:4825% → 22%
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
75.3%
Davis Warren pass complete to Peyton O'Leary for 5 yds to the MICH 26Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+7
74.0%
Davis Warren pass complete to Tyler Morris for 7 yds to the MICH 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
75.5%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
76.7%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
79.0%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:41
4TH & 10
OWN 33
+9
77.8%
Davis Warren pass complete to Peyton O'Leary for 9 yds to the MICH 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 23END OF GAME
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:2992% → 95%
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
91.8%
Ty Son Lawton run for 8 yds to the MICH 34Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+4
92.3%
Kurtis Rourke run for 4 yds to the MICH 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-2
94.1%
(00:49) Kneel down by ROURKE, Kurtis at MIC32 (team loss of 2), clock 00:44.Similar
Q4 0:06
2ND & 12
OPP 32
-2
95.2%
(00:06) Kneel down by ROURKE, Kurtis at MIC34 (team loss of 2), clock 00:03.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:35
Kalel Mullings 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-19.3
TD · Q2 12:10
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 36 yds for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK)
+7.5
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+4.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com