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USC

USC 21 at Washington 26

WASH
2024 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2024 · Husky Stadium
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Win probability · WASH
modelWASH aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playWASH scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-15.1WASH 61.5%Miller Moss pass complete to MakaiLemon for 37 yds for a TD (MichaelLantz KICK)AWAY 14 - HOME 20 · Q3 9:11
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:11 · Miller Moss pass complete to Makai Lemon for 37 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 117Home team on offense+3.9Pregame prior−3.9Garbage-time factor+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Score differential+0.3Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:02: Woody Marks run for 1 yd for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK) — USC win probability +7.5 pts (now 54%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:11: Jonah Coleman run for 15 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK) — WASH win probability +7.3 pts (now 60%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:11: Miller Moss pass complete to Makai Lemon for 37 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK) — USC win probability +15.1 pts (now 39%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:07: Miller Moss pass complete to Kyle Ford for 9 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK) — USC win probability +16.5 pts (now 60%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:48: Keith Reynolds run for 4 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — WASH win probability +18.8 pts (now 73%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WASH made the numbers' call on 7 of 9USC made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 13:24USC 4th & 7 at WASH 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:19WASH 4th & 6 at WASH 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:44WASH 4th & 12 at USC 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.2%−0.3
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.6%
    74% to make
    Punt
    46.3%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:36USC 4th & 4 at WASH 35, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.5%−0.4
    45% to make
    Punt
    50.2%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:01WASH 4th & 1 at USC 38, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    49.0%−1.2
    38% to make
    Punt
    49.0%−1.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:45USC 4th & 1 at USC 45, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    34.7%−1.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:21USC 4th & 18 at WASH 40, down 10
    Close callPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−0.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    32.1%
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.9%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:35WASH 4th & 9 at USC 27, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%−1.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.4%
    62% to make
    Punt
    63.0%−5.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:08WASH 4th & 6 at WASH 46, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.8%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:11USC 4th & 9 at WASH 37, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.1%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    20.9%−0.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    20.7%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:52WASH 4th & 7 at USC 30, up 6
    Close callWent for it · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.4%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    67.7%
    56% to make
    Punt
    65.6%−2.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:52WASH 4th & 7 at USC 30, up 6
    Close callWent for it · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.4%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    67.7%
    56% to make
    Punt
    65.6%−2.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:54WASH 4th & 18 at WASH 32, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−7.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:04USC 4th & 1 at WASH 1, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    25.7%−9.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    10.0%−25.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:36WASH 4th & 7 at WASH 36, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%−1.0
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:11USC 4th & 4 at WASH 14, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.9%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    10.5%−10.4
    84% to make
    Punt
    9.0%−11.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:11USC 4th & 4 at WASH 14, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.9%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    10.5%−10.4
    84% to make
    Punt
    9.0%−11.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WASH made the numbers' call on 2 of 3USC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 0:21WASH Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:02USC Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:11WASH Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:11USC Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:07USC Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:48WASH Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    68.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    68.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2560% → 59%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
50
+3
40.3%
Woody Marks run for 3 yds to the WASH 47Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
40.5%
Miller Moss pass complete to Lake McRee for no gain to the WASH 47Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 7
OPP 47
0
40.7%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:24
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
40.8%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Denzel Boston at the WASH 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:0041% → 41%
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
40.9%
Jonah Coleman run for 3 yds to the WASH 9Similar
Q1 12:29
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+3
41.1%
run for 3 yds to the WASH 6Similar
Q1 12:09
3RD & 10
OWN 6
+9
41.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Denzel Boston for 9 yds to the WASH 15Similar
Q1 11:36
4TH & 1
OWN 15
-5
41.2%
(11:36) PENALTY WASH False Start (Boston,Denzel) 5 yards from WASH15 to WASH10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:19
4TH & 6
OWN 10
0
41.3%
Jack McCallister punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WASH 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
41.1%
Miller Moss pass intercepted Carson Bruener return for no gain to the WASH 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 4FG
11 plays · 34 yds · 4:1542% → 44%
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
42.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 15 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
42.4%
Jonah Coleman run for 2 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+12
42.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Denzel Boston for 12 yds to the USC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
43.1%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+6
43.1%
Jonah Coleman run for 6 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+5
43.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Denzel Boston for 5 yds to the USC 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
43.6%
(07:49) PENALTY WASH False Start (Hunter,Jeremiah) 5 yards from USC19 to USC24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:26
1ST & 15
OPP 24
0
43.5%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 15
OPP 24
+3
43.3%
Jonah Coleman run for 3 yds to the USC 21Similar
Q1 6:48
3RD & 12
OPP 21
0
43.5%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:44
4TH & 12
OPP 21
+39
43.7%
Grady Gross 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5MISSED FG
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:0356% → 55%
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
43.6%
(06:39) PENALTY WASH Delay Of Game (Bandes,Jacob) 5 yards from USC40 to USC45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:29
1ST & 5
OWN 45
-2
43.4%
Miller Moss pass complete to Makai Lemon for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 43Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+16
43.6%
Miller Moss pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 16 yds to the WASH 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
43.5%
Miller Moss pass complete to Woody Marks for 4 yds to the WASH 37Similar
Q1 5:26
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+2
43.5%
Woody Marks run for 2 yds to the WASH 35Similar
Q1 4:41
3RD & 4
OPP 35
0
43.9%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:36
4TH & 4
OPP 35
+52
44.7%
Michael Lantz 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 6TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 4:1245% → 53%
Q1 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
44.8%
Jonah Coleman run for 3 yds to the WASH 38Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
45.5%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:54
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+15
44.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Keleki Latu for 15 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
46.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Demond Williams Jr. for 3 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q1 2:51
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
46.7%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:44
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+6
46.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Giles Jackson for 6 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q1 2:01
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+2
45.8%
Adam Mohammed run for 2 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
47.2%
Adam Mohammed run for 3 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+14
47.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Denzel Boston for 14 yds to the USC 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
52.8%
Jonah Coleman run for 19 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7TD
16 plays · 76 yds · 4:5848% → 54%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
51.6%
Miller Moss pass complete to Lake McRee for 5 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+5
51.3%
Miller Moss run for 5 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
51.8%
Miller Moss pass complete to Woody Marks for 7 yds to the USC 41Similar
Q2 13:54
2ND & 3
OWN 41
0
51.7%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:46
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+9
52.0%
(13:54) Shotgun Moss,Miller pass incomplete short middle to Ford,Kyle thrown to WASH49, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY WASH Pass Interference (Prysock,Ephesians) 9 yards from USC41 to USC50, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
50
0
51.5%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 10
50
0
51.9%
Woody Marks run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:41
3RD & 10
50
+20
54.2%
Miller Moss pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 20 yds to the WASH 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
52.7%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+19
52.8%
Miller Moss pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 19 yds to the WASH 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
52.4%
(11:55) No Huddle-Shotgun Marks,Woody rush right for 4 yards gain to the WASH07 (House,Khmori) PENALTY USC Illegal Formation 5 yards from WASH11 to WASH16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 15
OPP 16
+5
52.9%
Woody Marks run for 5 yds to the WASH 11Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+10
53.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Lake McRee for 10 yds to the WASH 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
46.4%
Woody Marks run for 1 yd for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 8TD
5 plays · 41 yds · 1:3452% → 60%
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+17
51.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Denzel Boston for 17 yds to the USC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
52.5%
Jonah Coleman run for 2 yds to the USC 22Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+7
52.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Denzel Boston for 7 yds to the USC 15Similar
Q2 8:11
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+15
60.0%
Jonah Coleman run for 15 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9PUNT
18 plays · 34 yds · 5:4041% → 34%
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
59.4%
Woody Marks run for 2 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 8
OWN 28
-5
59.7%
(07:31) PENALTY USC False Start (Murphy,Mason) 5 yards from USC28 to USC23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 13
OWN 23
-4
60.8%
Miller Moss pass complete to Woody Marks for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 19Similar
Q2 6:24
3RD & 17
OWN 19
+5
61.8%
(06:26) PENALTY WASH Offside (Ward,Isaiah) 5 yards from USC19 to USC24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 12
OWN 24
+12
62.2%
Miller Moss pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 12 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
61.1%
Miller Moss pass complete to Makai Lemon for no gain to the USC 36Similar
Q2 4:37
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
62.0%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+9
62.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Makai Lemon for 9 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q2 3:45
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+2
62.9%
Woody Marks run for 2 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+21
62.4%
Miller Moss pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 21 yds to the WASH 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
61.4%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:43
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-5
61.4%
PENALTY USC False Start (Murphy,Mason) 5 yards from WASH32 to WASH37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 15
OPP 37
+2
63.5%
Woody Marks run for 2 yds to the WASH 35Similar
Q2 2:29
3RD & 13
OPP 35
0
63.5%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:29
4TH & 13
OPP 35
-5
65.8%
PENALTY USC Delay Of Game 5 yards from WASH35 to WASH40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:21
4TH & 18
OPP 40
0
65.6%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 10FG
13 plays · 67 yds · 1:4163% → 74%
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
62.7%
Cameron Davis run for 4 yds to the WASH 10Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 6
OWN 10
+36
62.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Decker DeGraaf for 36 yds to the WASH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
64.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Giles Jackson for 5 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 5
OPP 49
0
64.9%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:34
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+8
64.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Keleki Latu for 8 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
66.0%
Jonah Coleman run for 5 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+8
66.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 8 yds to the USC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
67.2%
Jonah Coleman run for 1 yd to the USC 29Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 11
OPP 29
0
70.5%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 11
OPP 29
+2
69.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Giles Jackson for 2 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 9
OPP 27
+45
74.2%
Grady Gross 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11INT
10 plays · 17 yds · 0:2530% → 29%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
70.4%
Miller Moss pass complete to Woody Marks for 1 yd to the USC 36Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+10
70.8%
Miller Moss pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 10 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
69.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Woody Marks for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 6
50
0
68.1%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 6
50
+7
69.6%
Miller Moss pass complete to Makai Lemon for 7 yds to the WASH 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
68.3%
(00:01) PENALTY USC False Start (Murphy,Mason) 5 yards from WASH43 to WASH48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 15
OPP 48
0
70.9%
Miller Moss pass intercepted Kamren Fabiculanan return for 35 yards to the WASH 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:4674% → 75%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
73.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Denzel Boston for 17 yds to the WASH 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
75.2%
Jonah Coleman run for 2 yds to the WASH 44Similar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+2
76.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Denzel Boston for 2 yds to the WASH 46Similar
Q3 13:16
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
76.2%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:08
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
74.9%
Jack McCallister punt for 43 yds , Zachariah Branch returns for no gain to the USC 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13TD
9 plays · 89 yds · 3:5327% → 39%
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
73.3%
Woody Marks run for 4 yds to the USC 15Similar
Q3 12:19
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+5
74.3%
Miller Moss pass complete to Duce Robinson for 5 yds to the USC 20Similar
Q3 11:42
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+15
75.2%
Woody Marks run for 15 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
75.9%
Woody Marks run for 14 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
75.0%
Woody Marks run for 13 yds to the WASH 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
75.4%
Quinten Joyner run for 1 yd to the WASH 37Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 9
OPP 37
0
75.9%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:16
3RD & 9
OPP 37
0
76.6%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:11
4TH & 9
OPP 37
+37
61.5%
Miller Moss pass complete to Makai Lemon for 37 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 14DOWNS
9 plays · 45 yds · 2:0964% → 66%
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
64.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Giles Jackson for 21 yds to the WASH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
67.3%
Jonah Coleman run for 3 yds to the WASH 49Similar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+18
67.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Keleki Latu for 18 yds to the USC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
68.8%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+3
68.8%
Jonah Coleman run for 3 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q3 6:56
3RD & 7
OPP 30
0
68.0%
Demond Williams Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:52
4TH & 7
OPP 30
0
65.9%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:52
4TH & 7
OPP 30
0
65.9%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 1:4038% → 60%
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+16
62.2%
Woody Marks run for 16 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+42
59.8%
Miller Moss pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 42 yds to the WASH 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
56.9%
Woody Marks run for 3 yds to the WASH 9Similar
Q3 5:07
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+9
40.4%
Miller Moss pass complete to Kyle Ford for 9 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 1:5547% → 45%
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
47.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Cameron Davis for no gain to the WASH 24Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+16
47.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Denzel Boston for 16 yds to the WASH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
51.1%
Jonah Coleman run for 2 yds to the WASH 42Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 8
OWN 42
-10
51.3%
(03:21) Shotgun Rogers,Will pass incomplete short left thrown to USC50 PENALTY WASH Holding (Faasolo,Soane) 10 yards from WASH42 to WASH32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 18
OWN 32
0
47.3%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:06
3RD & 18
OWN 32
0
45.4%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:54
4TH & 18
OWN 32
+20
44.6%
Jack McCallister punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 40 , Zachariah Branch returns for 20 yds to the USC 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 1:3157% → 57%
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
42.8%
Woody Marks run for 5 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q3 1:58
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
42.5%
Miller Moss pass complete to Makai Lemon for no gain to the USC 45Similar
Q3 1:18
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
43.0%
Miller Moss pass intercepted Carson Bruener return for no gain to the USC 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 18TD
8 plays · 39 yds · 2:2652% → 73%
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
52.1%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+9
51.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 9 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q3 0:47
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+2
51.4%
Jonah Coleman run for 2 yds to the USC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
53.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Cameron Davis for 7 yds to the USC 21Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+7
53.9%
Jonah Coleman run for 7 yds to the USC 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
54.1%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+5
54.1%
USC Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Sam Greene) to the USC 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
72.9%
Keith Reynolds run for 4 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19DOWNS
16 plays · 77 yds · 8:3436% → 32%
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
64.1%
Woody Marks run for 2 yds to the USC 21Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+4
64.7%
Miller Moss pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 4 yds to the USC 25Similar
Q4 12:17
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+19
65.6%
Woody Marks run for 19 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
61.3%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+4
62.6%
Quinten Joyner run for 4 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q4 10:44
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+9
61.7%
Woody Marks run for 9 yds to the WASH 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
60.1%
Quinten Joyner run for 2 yds to the WASH 41Similar
Q4 9:23
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+4
60.0%
Quinten Joyner run for 4 yds to the WASH 37Similar
Q4 8:32
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+6
60.5%
Woody Marks run for 6 yds to the WASH 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
61.1%
Quinten Joyner run for 15 yds to the WASH 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+12
63.0%
Quinten Joyner run for 12 yds to the WASH 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
62.6%
Woody Marks run for 2 yds to the WASH 2Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
63.8%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
65.9%
Woody Marks run for 1 yd to the WASH 1Similar
Q4 5:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+3
68.2%
Woody Marks run for 3 yds to the WASH 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 20PUNT
14 plays · 32 yds · 3:2483% → 93%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+5
83.4%
Jonah Coleman run for 5 yds to the WASH 9Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 5
OWN 9
+2
83.5%
Jonah Coleman run for 2 yds to the WASH 11Similar
Q4 3:46
3RD & 3
OWN 11
+11
84.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Giles Jackson for 11 yds to the WASH 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
87.5%
Jonah Coleman run for 9 yds to the WASH 31Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+2
88.9%
Jonah Coleman run for 2 yds to the WASH 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
92.9%
Jonah Coleman run for 2 yds to the WASH 35Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+7
93.3%
Jonah Coleman run for 7 yds to the WASH 42Similar
Q4 1:48
3RD & 1
OWN 42
-5
94.5%
PENALTY WASH Illegal Substitution 5 yards from WASH42 to WASH37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:42
3RD & 6
OWN 37
-1
94.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Giles Jackson for a loss of 1 yard to the WASH 36Similar
Q4 1:36
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
93.4%
Jack McCallister punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21DOWNS
13 plays · 52 yds · 1:2513% → 15%
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
87.5%
(01:36) PENALTY USC False Start (Murphy,Mason) 5 yards from USC34 to USC29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:28
1ST & 15
OWN 29
+6
89.6%
Miller Moss pass complete to Makai Lemon for 6 yds to the USC 35Similar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+13
88.7%
Miller Moss pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 13 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
87.2%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+8
87.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Woody Marks for 8 yds to the WASH 44Similar
Q4 0:54
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+13
85.4%
Miller Moss pass complete to Makai Lemon for 13 yds to the WASH 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
82.1%
Miller Moss pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 11 yds to the WASH 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
80.4%
Miller Moss pass complete to Woody Marks for 6 yds to the WASH 14Similar
Q4 0:26
2ND & 4
OPP 14
0
78.2%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:19
3RD & 4
OPP 14
0
84.0%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:11
4TH & 4
OPP 14
0
85.4%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:11
4TH & 4
OPP 14
0
85.4%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 22END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
95.9%
W. Rogers takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:48
Keith Reynolds run for 4 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+18.8
TD · Q3 5:07
Miller Moss pass complete to Kyle Ford for 9 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)
-16.5
TD · Q3 9:11
Miller Moss pass complete to Makai Lemon for 37 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)
-15.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com