2024 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2024 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadOSU aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreOSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:44 · Riley Thompson punt for 50 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore differentialPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 11:54: Will Howard pass complete to Brandon Inniss for 21 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK) — OSU win probability +5.2 pts (now 56%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 10:40: Jayden Fielding 46 yd FG GOOD — OSU win probability +6.3 pts (now 66%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 5:03: Ryan Barker 44 yd FG GOOD — PSU win probability +6.2 pts (now 45%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
- FG · Q4 10:13: Jayden Fielding 39 yd FG GOOD — OSU win probability +6.2 pts (now 78%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 4:40: Will Howard run for 4 yds to the OSU 5 — OSU win probability +10.8 pts (now 85%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8OSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 6:54PSU 4th & 10 at OSU 12, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.6% before the snapGo for it45.3%−0.225% to convertField goalTheir call45.5%86% to makePunt44.3%−1.2average punt
- Q1 0:36PSU 4th & 2 at PSU 28, up 3Close callPunted · 47.4% before the snapGo for it47.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.5%−0.4average punt
- Q2 10:34PSU 4th & 10 at PSU 25, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.2% before the snapGo for it42.6%−1.028% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.6%average punt
- Q2 8:44OSU 4th & 1 at PSU 49, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call56.3%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt54.8%−1.5average punt
- Q2 3:44PSU 4th & 6 at midfield, down 4Close callPunted · 43.4% before the snapGo for it43.2%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.0%−0.2average punt
- Q2 1:51OSU 4th & 15 at OSU 15, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.0% before the snapGo for it52.9%−3.316% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.1%average punt
- Q2 0:26PSU 4th & 1 at OSU 40, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call44.7%70% to convertField goal44.3%−0.434% to makePunt43.1%−1.5average punt
- Q3 10:40OSU 4th & 9 at PSU 28, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.4% before the snapGo for it57.0%−1.031% to convertField goalTheir call58.0%60% to makePunt50.2%−7.8average punt
- Q3 5:03PSU 4th & 6 at OSU 27, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.6% before the snapGo for it35.1%−0.239% to convertField goalTheir call35.3%62% to makePunt25.1%−10.1average punt
- Q3 2:56OSU 4th & 12 at OSU 23, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.5% before the snapGo for it58.2%−5.122% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.3%average punt
- Q3 0:15PSU 4th & 21 at PSU 40, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.2% before the snapGo for it32.0%−5.19% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.2%average punt
- Q4 10:13OSU 4th & 7 at PSU 21, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.0% before the snapGo for it66.7%−1.235% to convertField goalTheir call68.0%74% to makePunt53.4%−14.5average punt
- Q4 5:13PSU 4th & 1 at OSU 1, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call31.0%59% to convertField goal21.5%−9.594% to makePunt7.5%−23.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1OSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 5:37PSU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call49.9%97% to makeGo for two49.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:59OSU Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call52.2%97% to makeGo for two52.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:54OSU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call55.6%97% to makeGo for two55.5%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartPSUDrive 1FG16 plays · 61 yds · 7:5747% → 50%
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
47.0%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 8 yds to the PSU 45Similar
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
48.5%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 3 yds to the OSU 31Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+19
48.9%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 19 yds to the OSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
49.0%
Penn State Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Sal Wormley) to the OSU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 2INT TD6 plays · 5 yds · 1:1750% → 45%
OSUDrive 3TD8 plays · 74 yds · 3:1548% → 51%
PSUDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:4251% → 50%
Q1 0:36
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+53
50.1%
Riley Thompson punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Brandon Inniss at the OSU 29 Ohio State Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the OSU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 5TD11 plays · 81 yds · 3:3849% → 56%
Q1 0:05
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+8
51.6%
Will Howard pass complete to Carnell Tate for 8 yds to the OSU 27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+5
51.6%
Penn State Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the OSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 11
OWN 31
+22
52.5%
Will Howard pass complete to Carnell Tate for 7 yds to the PSU 38 for a 1ST down Penn State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the PSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+5
50.6%
Will Howard pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 5 yds to the PSU 42Similar
Q2 12:23
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+20
50.7%
Will Howard pass complete to TreVeyon Henderson for 20 yds to the PSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+21
44.4%
Will Howard pass complete to Brandon Inniss for 21 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:0347% → 46%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 7FUMBLE9 plays · 45 yds · 3:4955% → 57%
PSUDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 30 yds · 2:0446% → 47%
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
46.8%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 7 yds to the PSU 41 for a 1ST down Ohio State Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the PSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:58
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
47.6%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 9PUNT4 plays · -5 yds · 1:5054% → 54%
PSUDrive 10INT9 plays · 46 yds · 1:2749% → 52%
Q2 1:15
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+4
49.3%
Drew Allar pass complete to Julian Fleming for 4 yds to the OSU 43Similar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+21
51.6%
Drew Allar pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 21 yds to the OSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
52.0%
Drew Allar pass intercepted, touchback. Davison Igbinosun return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 11END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 12FG9 plays · 47 yds · 3:5157% → 66%
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
42.3%
Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+2
39.0%
Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 2 yds to the PSU 25Similar
Q3 11:02
3RD & 6
OPP 25
-3
40.2%
Will Howard sacked by Kobe King for a loss of 3 yards to the PSU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13FG10 plays · 49 yds · 5:0236% → 45%
OSUDrive 14PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 2:0260% → 60%
Q3 4:25
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+4
38.6%
Will Howard pass complete to Gee Scott Jr. for 4 yds to the OSU 27Similar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-4
38.8%
Will Howard sacked by Abdul Carter for a loss of 4 yards to the OSU 23Similar
Q3 2:56
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+14
40.5%
Joe McGuire punt for 53 yds , Zion Tracy returns for 14 yds to the PSU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 2:0642% → 37%
Q3 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
41.6%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 13 yds to the OSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:09
2ND & 8
OPP 47
-9
44.7%
Drew Allar sacked by Cody Simon for a loss of 9 yards to the PSU 44Similar
Q3 0:24
3RD & 17
OWN 44
-4
38.7%
Drew Allar sacked by JT Tuimoloau and Kenyatta Jackson Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the PSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 16FG12 plays · 64 yds · 4:4864% → 78%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+18
35.8%
Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 18 yds to the OSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+12
31.8%
Will Howard pass complete to Brandon Inniss for 12 yds to the PSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+14
30.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 14 yds to the PSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17DOWNS10 plays · 74 yds · 4:2727% → 25%
Q4 9:12
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+31
27.3%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 31 yds to the OSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 18END OF GAME16 plays · 58 yds · 4:3985% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 4:40
Will Howard run for 4 yds to the OSU 5
-10.8
FG · Q3 10:40
Jayden Fielding 46 yd FG GOOD
-6.3
FG · Q3 5:03
Ryan Barker 44 yd FG GOOD
+6.2