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IU

Indiana 47 at Michigan State 10

MSU
2024 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2024 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadIU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:45 · Aidan Chiles pass complete to Aziah Johnson for 23 yds to the IU 44 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+59.0+29.50−29.5−59.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 98Home team on offense−26.3Score differential−13.2Pregame prior−8.5Garbage-time factor−4.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:39: Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 18 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK) — MSU win probability +2.8 pts (now 41%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:13: Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Zach Horton for 17 yds for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK) — IU win probability +5.3 pts (now 64%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:22: Ty Son Lawton run for 1 yd for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK) — IU win probability +11.2 pts (now 68%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:10: Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 4 yds for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK) — IU win probability +17.3 pts (now 80%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 11:39: Myles Price 18 Yd pass from Kurtis Rourke (Nicolas Radicic Kick) — IU win probability +6.9 pts (now 92%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 8IU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 13:42IU 4th & 3 at IU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:58MSU 4th & 5 at IU 29, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.7%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    34.2%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:06IU 4th & 7 at IU 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:18IU 4th & 9 at IU 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:45MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 27, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%−1.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:16MSU 4th & 5 at MSU 30, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:46IU 4th & 1 at IU 23, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%−0.2
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:45MSU 4th & 2 at MSU 33, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.1%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:44MSU 4th & 4 at IU 38, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    10.5%−1.5
    38% to make
    Punt
    10.4%−1.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:43IU 4th & 6 at MSU 11, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.2%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.4%
    87% to make
    Punt
    90.0%−5.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:54MSU 4th & 23 at MSU 30, down 23
    Numbers favored punt by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%−1.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:39MSU 4th & 29 at MSU 6, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:13MSU 4th & 15 at MSU 48, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:52IU 4th & 1 at IU 27, up 37
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:45IU 4th & 1 at IU 40, up 37
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1IU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 2:39MSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:13IU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:22IU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:10IU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:05IU Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:52IU Touchdown, up 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IUDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1870% → 69%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
30.4%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 9 yds to the IU 34Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-2
30.6%
Justice Ellison run for a loss of 2 yards to the IU 32Similar
Q1 13:47
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
30.9%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:42
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
31.0%
James Evans punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2FG
8 plays · 52 yds · 3:3631% → 33%
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
31.1%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+3
31.1%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 3 yds to the MSU 22Similar
Q1 12:51
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+33
31.3%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 33 yds to the IU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
31.9%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Aziah Johnson for 11 yds to the IU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
32.3%
Nate Carter run for 2 yds to the IU 32Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+6
32.6%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 6 yds to the IU 26Similar
Q1 10:37
3RD & 2
OPP 26
-3
32.8%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for a loss of 3 yards to the IU 29Similar
Q1 9:58
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+47
33.4%
Jonathan Kim 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5167% → 66%
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
33.1%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
33.2%
Ty Son Lawton run for 3 yds to the IU 28Similar
Q1 9:10
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
33.8%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:06
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+4
34.1%
James Evans punt for 47 yds , Montorie Foster Jr. returns for 4 yds to the MSU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4TD
14 plays · 71 yds · 6:1734% → 41%
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
33.5%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nate Carter for 13 yds to the MSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
34.4%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+9
34.2%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 9 yds to the IU 49Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+5
34.9%
Aidan Chiles run for 5 yds to the IU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
35.4%
Nate Carter run for no gain to the IU 44Similar
Q1 6:27
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
35.7%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:20
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+16
35.3%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams for 16 yds to the IU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
36.5%
Alante Brown run for 9 yds to the IU 19Similar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 1
OPP 19
-5
36.9%
(05:03) CHILES, Aidan pass to the right complete for 8 yards to MARSH, Nick caught at the IU11 and advanced to the IU11, out of bounds, clock 05:00. PENALTY MSU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on NEWMAN, Luke enforced 5 yards from the IU19 to the IU24 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 6
OPP 24
-2
37.2%
Aidan Chiles run for a loss of 2 yards to the IU 26Similar
Q1 3:59
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+9
37.2%
Aidan Chiles run for 9 yds to the IU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
38.0%
Makhi Frazier run for a loss of 1 yard to the IU 18Similar
Q1 2:49
2ND & 11
OPP 18
0
38.4%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:39
3RD & 11
OPP 18
+18
41.2%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 18 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 5TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2658% → 64%
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
41.9%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 14 yds to the IU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
41.0%
Justice Ellison run for 9 yds to the IU 48Similar
Q1 1:32
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+8
40.8%
Justice Ellison run for 8 yds to the MSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
41.4%
Ty Son Lawton run for 5 yds to the MSU 39Similar
Q1 0:19
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+6
41.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Myles Price for 6 yds to the MSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:59
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+16
41.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Ty Son Lawton for 16 yds to the MSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
36.3%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Zach Horton for 17 yds for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6INT
4 plays · 26 yds · 0:5339% → 42%
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
39.1%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 12 yds to the MSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
40.0%
Indiana Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Shawn Asbury II) to the IU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-15
41.5%
Aidan Chiles pass intercepted Amare Ferrell return for 15 yds to the IU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5261% → 59%
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
38.7%
Justice Ellison run for 1 yd to the IU 46Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
39.1%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:24
3RD & 9
OWN 46
0
39.9%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:18
4TH & 9
OWN 46
0
41.1%
James Evans punt for 47 yds, downed at the MSU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 3:2342% → 43%
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+9
42.0%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Aziah Johnson for 9 yds to the MSU 16Similar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 1
OWN 16
+2
42.1%
Nate Carter run for 2 yds to the MSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-3
42.6%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for a loss of 3 yards to the MSU 15Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 13
OWN 15
+11
42.7%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 11 yds to the MSU 26Similar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+1
42.9%
Nate Carter run for 1 yd to the MSU 27Similar
Q2 8:45
4TH & 1
OWN 27
+17
42.7%
Ryan Eckley punt for 54 yds , Myles Price returns for 17 yds to the IU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 9TD
6 plays · 64 yds · 2:0956% → 68%
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+38
44.3%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 38 yds to the MSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+25
42.6%
Myles Price run for 25 yds to the MSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
42.8%
Kurtis Rourke run for no gain to the MSU 1Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
31.6%
Ty Son Lawton run for 1 yd for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 1:1739% → 38%
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
38.7%
Nate Carter run for 3 yds to the MSU 33Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 7
OWN 33
-2
39.2%
Aidan Chiles sacked by Mikail Kamara and CJ West for a loss of 2 yards to the MSU 31Similar
Q2 4:59
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
38.1%
Aidan Chiles pass intercepted Amare Ferrell return for no gain to the MSU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 11TD
6 plays · 37 yds · 2:4465% → 80%
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
35.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Justice Ellison for 2 yds to the MSU 35Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+9
34.9%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Justice Ellison for 9 yds to the MSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
34.5%
Justice Ellison run for 9 yds to the MSU 17Similar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 1
OPP 17
+13
33.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 13 yds to the MSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
37.8%
Justice Ellison run for no gain to the MSU 4Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
20.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 4 yds for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:5320% → 21%
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
20.3%
Aidan Chiles run for 4 yds to the MSU 29Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
21.6%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Aziah Johnson for 5 yds to the MSU 34Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-4
21.3%
Aidan Chiles run for a loss of 4 yards to the MSU 30Similar
Q2 1:16
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
21.4%
Ryan Eckley punt for 56 yds, downed at the IU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:1880% → 80%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-3
19.8%
Ty Son Lawton run for a loss of 3 yards to the IU 11Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 13
OWN 11
+11
20.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Justice Ellison for 11 yds to the IU 22Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 2
OWN 22
+1
20.1%
Justice Ellison run for 1 yd to the IU 23Similar
Q2 0:46
4TH & 1
OWN 23
0
20.5%
James Evans punt for 45 yds, downed at the MSU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14END OF HALF
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:1916% → 12%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
16.1%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 11 yds to the MSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-7
16.4%
Aidan Chiles sacked by CJ West and Lanell Carr Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the MSU 36Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 17
OWN 36
+9
11.5%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 9 yds to the MSU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15SF
3 plays · -14 yds · 0:4325% → 24%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
24.8%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
24.7%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams for no gain to the MSU 20Similar
Q3 14:11
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-8
23.6%
Aidan Chiles sacked by James Carpenter for a loss of 8 yards to the MSU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 16TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 1:2883% → 92%
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
16.6%
Justice Ellison run for 1 yd to the IU 36Similar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
16.1%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:42
3RD & 9
OWN 36
-5
16.3%
Indiana Penalty, False Start (Trey Wedig) to the IU 31Similar
Q3 12:42
3RD & 14
OWN 31
+21
17.1%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 21 yds to the MSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+35
15.1%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 35 yds to the MSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-5
14.7%
Indiana Penalty, False Start (Carter Smith) to the MSU 18Similar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 15
OPP 18
0
14.7%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 15
OPP 18
+18
7.8%
Myles Price 18 Yd pass from Kurtis Rourke (Nicolas Radicic Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17DOWNS
10 plays · 30 yds · 4:0012% → 6%
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
11.6%
Nate Carter run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSU 23Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+3
10.9%
Aidan Chiles run for 3 yds to the MSU 26Similar
Q3 10:24
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+7
11.2%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 7 yds to the MSU 33Similar
Q3 9:45
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+23
10.4%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Aziah Johnson for 23 yds to the IU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
11.2%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 1 yd to the IU 43Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 9
OPP 43
0
10.8%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:19
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+5
10.1%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 5 yds to the IU 38Similar
Q3 7:44
4TH & 4
OPP 38
-7
9.8%
Tommy Schuster sacked by Mikail Kamara for a loss of 7 yards to the IU 45Similar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
5.6%
(07:39) ROURKE, Kurtis scrambles up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the IU49, End of Play, clock 07:32. PENALTY IU Holding on KATIC, Mike enforced 10 yards from the IU45 to the IU35 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 18FG
9 plays · 44 yds · 4:3194% → 97%
Q3 7:14
1ST & 20
OWN 35
+15
6.3%
Ty Son Lawton run for 15 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:32
2ND & 5
50
-2
5.3%
Ty Son Lawton run for a loss of 2 yards to the IU 48Similar
Q3 6:11
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+18
5.3%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Myles Price for 18 yds to the MSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
3.9%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 7 yds to the MSU 27Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+12
3.7%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 12 yds to the MSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
3.5%
Kaelon Black run for 2 yds to the MSU 13Similar
Q3 3:34
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+2
3.4%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 2 yds to the MSU 11Similar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 6
OPP 11
0
3.2%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:43
4TH & 6
OPP 11
+29
3.0%
Nicolas Radicic 29 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19DOWNS
6 plays · -4 yds · 2:482% → 2%
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
2.1%
Alante Brown run for 7 yds to the MSU 32Similar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+11
1.8%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Jack Velling for 11 yds to the MSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
1.9%
Nate Carter run for 1 yd to the MSU 44Similar
Q3 0:37
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
1.8%
Tommy Schuster pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:33
3RD & 9
OWN 44
-14
1.7%
Tommy Schuster sacked by Mikail Kamara for a loss of 14 yards to the MSU 30Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 23
OWN 30
-9
1.7%
Ryan Eckley run for a loss of 9 yards to the MSU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 20TD
2 plays · 21 yds · 0:4998% → 100%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
2.1%
Justice Ellison run for 5 yds to the MSU 16Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+16
0.5%
Omar Cooper Jr. 16 Yd Run (Nicolas Radicic Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -19 yds · 1:260% → 0%
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
0.3%
Michigan State Penalty, False Start (Brandon Baldwin) to the MSU 20Similar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-18
0.3%
Tommy Schuster sacked for a loss of 18 yards to the MSU 2 Tommy Schuster fumbled, recovered by MSU Stanton Ramil , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 13:19
2ND & 33
OWN 2
+4
0.2%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 4 yds to the MSU 6Similar
Q4 12:42
3RD & 29
OWN 6
0
0.2%
Tommy Schuster pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:39
4TH & 29
OWN 6
+27
0.2%
Ryan Eckley punt for 58 yds , Myles Price returns for 27 yds to the MSU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 22TD
6 plays · 37 yds · 1:36100% → 100%
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
0.5%
Kaelon Black run for 6 yds to the MSU 31Similar
Q4 11:47
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+5
0.4%
Kaelon Black run for 5 yds to the MSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
0.4%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
0.4%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:01
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+15
0.4%
(11:01) ROURKE, Kurtis pass deep to the left incomplete intended for WILLIAMS, Ke'Shawn thrown to the MSU2, clock 10:57. PENALTY MSU Pass Interference on MARTINEZ, Nikai enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the MSU11 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
0.3%
Elijah Sarratt 11 Yd pass from Kurtis Rourke (Nicolas Radicic Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:370% → 0%
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
0.1%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Brennan Parachek for 17 yds to the MSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
0.1%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 3 yds to the MSU 45Similar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+8
0.1%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 8 yds to the IU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
0.1%
Tommy Schuster sacked by Isaiah Jones and Tyrique Tucker for a loss of 5 yards to the MSU 48Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 15
OWN 48
0
0.1%
Tommy Schuster pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:21
3RD & 15
OWN 48
0
0.1%
Tommy Schuster pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:13
4TH & 15
OWN 48
0
0.1%
punt blocked by blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 24END OF GAME
13 plays · 17 yds · 7:26100% → 100%
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
0.2%
Elijah Green run for 5 yds to the IU 23Similar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+4
0.2%
Elijah Green run for 4 yds to the IU 27Similar
Q4 6:38
3RD & 1
OWN 27
0
0.2%
Elijah Green run for no gain to the IU 27Similar
Q4 5:52
4TH & 1
OWN 27
+4
0.2%
Elijah Green run for 4 yds to the IU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
0.1%
Kaelon Black run for 1 yd to the IU 32Similar
Q4 4:23
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+5
0.1%
Elijah Green run for 5 yds to the IU 37Similar
Q4 3:36
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+3
0.1%
Kaelon Black run for 3 yds to the IU 40Similar
Q4 2:45
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+2
0.1%
Kaelon Black run for 2 yds to the IU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
0.1%
(01:59) Kneel down by TEAM at IU40 (team loss of 2), clock 01:51.Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 12
OWN 40
-3
0.1%
(01:08) Kneel down by TEAM at IU37 (team loss of 3), clock 01:05.Similar
Q4 0:36
3RD & 15
OWN 37
-2
0.1%
(00:36) Kneel down by TEAM at IU35 (team loss of 2), clock 00:27.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:10
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 4 yds for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK)
-17.3
TD · Q2 6:22
Ty Son Lawton run for 1 yd for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK)
-11.2
TD · Q3 11:39
Myles Price 18 Yd pass from Kurtis Rourke (Nicolas Radicic Kick)
-6.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com