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MINN

Minnesota 25 at Illinois 17

ILL
2024 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2024 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadMINN aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreMINN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGEnd of GameFG-2.8ILL 38.2%Dragan Kesich 45 yd FG GOODAWAY 13 - HOME 10 · Q2 0:19
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:19 · Dragan Kesich 45 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 79Home team on offense−5.5Pregame prior−4.6Garbage-time factor−0.6Score differential−2.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:55: Darius Taylor run for 29 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK) — MINN win probability +8.0 pts (now 67%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:28: Josh McCray run for 42 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK) — ILL win probability +15.2 pts (now 51%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 4:36: Dragan Kesich 38 yd FG GOOD — MINN win probability +5.1 pts (now 70%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:03: Luke Altmyer pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 21 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK) — ILL win probability +32.9 pts (now 67%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:14: Max Brosmer pass complete to Jameson Geers for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — MINN win probability +33.8 pts (now 86%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 5 of 6MINN made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 13:46ILL 4th & 9 at ILL 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:17MINN 4th & 9 at MINN 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:21MINN 4th & 2 at ILL 2, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.7%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    52.2%−1.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:46ILL 4th & 4 at ILL 44, down 3
    Close callPunted · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:34MINN 4th & 14 at MINN 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%−1.0
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:08ILL 4th & 5 at MINN 7, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    42.2%−5.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:19MINN 4th & 5 at ILL 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%−1.6
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.8%
    62% to make
    Punt
    49.2%−4.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:18MINN 4th & 5 at MINN 31, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%−1.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:09ILL 4th & 9 at ILL 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%−2.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:36MINN 4th & 7 at ILL 20, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.5%−1.3
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.8%
    75% to make
    Punt
    47.4%−11.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:21ILL 4th & 10 at ILL 49, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:11MINN 4th & 12 at MINN 44, up 6
    Numbers favored punt by 3.1 ptsWent for it · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.7%−3.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    71.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:11MINN 4th & 12 at MINN 44, up 6
    Numbers favored punt by 3.1 ptsWent for it · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.7%−3.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    71.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:17ILL 4th & 4 at ILL 31, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.3%−3.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:52MINN 4th & 7 at ILL 28, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.2%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.7%
    60% to make
    Punt
    80.7%−7.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MINN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 6:55MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:28ILL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 9:03ILL Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.1%−1.3
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 5:14MINN Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    74.1%−1.0
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    75.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:0841% → 41%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
40.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 19 yds to the ILL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
41.1%
Aidan Laughery run for 1 yd to the ILL 45Similar
Q1 14:01
2ND & 9
OWN 45
0
41.3%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 9
OWN 45
0
41.3%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:46
4TH & 9
OWN 45
0
41.3%
Hugh Robertson punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:2059% → 58%
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+9
41.4%
Darius Taylor run for 9 yds to the MINN 11Similar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 1
OWN 11
+4
41.6%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 4 yds to the MINN 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
41.8%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+5
41.8%
Darius Taylor run for 5 yds to the MINN 20Similar
Q1 11:35
3RD & 5
OWN 20
-4
42.1%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Darius Taylor for a loss of 4 yards to the MINN 16Similar
Q1 11:17
4TH & 9
OWN 16
+5
42.3%
Mark Crawford punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ILL 42 , Miles Scott returns for 5 yds to the ILL 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3FUMBLE
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
42.5%
Luke Altmyer run for 2 yds to the ILL 44 Luke Altmyer fumbled, recovered by MINN Maverick BaranowskiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 4FG
12 plays · 42 yds · 4:4058% → 58%
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+14
41.7%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Darius Taylor for 14 yds to the ILL 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
41.7%
Marcus Major run for 3 yds to the ILL 27Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 7
OPP 27
0
41.8%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 7
OPP 27
-5
42.0%
PENALTY MINN False Start (Daniels,Phillip) 5 yards from ILL27 to ILL32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:41
3RD & 12
OPP 32
+13
42.3%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 13 yds to the ILL 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
41.9%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:13
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+4
42.0%
Marcus Major run for 4 yds to the ILL 15Similar
Q1 8:28
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+10
42.2%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 10 yds to the ILL 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
42.0%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
41.9%
Darius Taylor run for 3 yds to the ILL 2Similar
Q1 6:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
42.3%
Darius Taylor run for no gain to the ILL 2Similar
Q1 6:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
42.4%
Dragan Kesich 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:3043% → 43%
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
42.6%
Josh McCray run for loss of 1 yd to the ILL 24Similar
Q1 5:43
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+14
42.3%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 14 yds to the ILL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
42.9%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
42.9%
Josh McCray run for loss of 3 yds to the ILL 35Similar
Q1 4:26
3RD & 13
OWN 35
+9
42.1%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Carson Goda for 9 yds to the ILL 44Similar
Q1 3:46
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
42.7%
Hugh Robertson punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 2:0757% → 56%
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
43.1%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+12
43.2%
Darius Taylor run for 12 yds to the MINN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
42.3%
Marcus Major run for no gain to the MINN 38Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-4
42.0%
Max Brosmer sacked by Ezekiel Holmes for a loss of 4 yards to the MINN 34Similar
Q1 1:44
3RD & 14
OWN 34
0
43.5%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:34
4TH & 14
OWN 34
+8
43.8%
Mark Crawford punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ILL 28 , Hank Beatty returns for 8 yds to the ILL 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 7FG
11 plays · 65 yds · 6:1743% → 48%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
42.6%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 4 yds to the ILL 32Similar
Q1 0:56
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+5
42.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 5 yds to the ILL 37Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+5
43.5%
Jordan Anderson run for 5 yds to the ILL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+25
44.1%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 25 yds to the MINN 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
45.3%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 3 yds to the MINN 30Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+6
45.5%
Pat Bryant run for 6 yds to the MINN 24Similar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+12
44.8%
Josh McCray run for 12 yds to the MINN 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
45.9%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Danny Striggow for a loss of 1 yard to the MINN 13Similar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 11
OPP 13
+4
46.1%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 4 yds to the MINN 9Similar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+2
45.3%
Luke Altmyer run for 2 yds to the MINN 7Similar
Q2 10:08
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+25
47.7%
David Olano 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 8TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 3:0855% → 67%
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
44.9%
Darius Taylor run for 4 yds to the MINN 39Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
43.6%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:11
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+7
44.7%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Darius Taylor for 7 yds to the MINN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
43.5%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Jameson Geers for 13 yds to the ILL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
43.2%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 9 yds to the ILL 32Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 1
OPP 32
0
41.2%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:47
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+8
42.0%
Darius Taylor run for 8 yds to the ILL 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
41.2%
PENALTY MINN False Start (Kallerup,Nick) 5 yards from ILL24 to ILL29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 15
OPP 29
+29
33.1%
Darius Taylor run for 29 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 9TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:1936% → 51%
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
36.1%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Aidan Laughery for 10 yds to the ILL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
36.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 5 yds to the ILL 40Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+2
38.0%
Aidan Laughery run for 2 yds to the ILL 42Similar
Q2 5:21
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+9
37.3%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 9 yds to the MINN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-8
38.7%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Anthony Smith for a loss of 8 yards to the ILL 43Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 18
OWN 43
+15
36.1%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 15 yds to the MINN 42Similar
Q2 3:28
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+42
51.4%
Josh McCray run for 42 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 10FG
11 plays · 48 yds · 3:0155% → 62%
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
45.4%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Darius Taylor for 4 yds to the MINN 29Similar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+14
44.5%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Darius Taylor for 14 yds to the MINN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
43.0%
Marcus Major run for 10 yds to the ILL 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
41.8%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 15 yds to the ILL 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
40.5%
Darius Taylor run for 5 yds to the ILL 27Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 5
OPP 27
0
40.2%
Max Brosmer run for no gain to the ILL 27Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 5
OPP 27
0
41.0%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:19
4TH & 5
OPP 27
+45
38.2%
Dragan Kesich 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11MISSED FG
8 plays · 38 yds · 0:1438% → 43%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
38.4%
Josh McCray run for 14 yds to the ILL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
40.6%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Collin Dixon for 4 yds to the ILL 43Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+12
42.1%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 12 yds to the MINN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
43.1%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 8 yds to the MINN 37Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+55
43.1%
Ethan Moczulski 55 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2958% → 56%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
41.7%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 3 yds to the MINN 29Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+2
41.1%
Darius Taylor run for 2 yds to the MINN 31Similar
Q3 13:28
3RD & 5
OWN 31
0
42.0%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:18
4TH & 5
OWN 31
+5
43.7%
Mark Crawford punt for 51 yds , Hank Beatty returns for 5 yds to the ILL 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:0543% → 39%
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
43.2%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+10
43.0%
Aidan Laughery run for 10 yds to the ILL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
43.4%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+2
41.7%
Aidan Laughery run for 2 yds to the ILL 35Similar
Q3 11:38
3RD & 8
OWN 35
-1
40.7%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Jack Henderson for a loss of 1 yard to the ILL 34Similar
Q3 11:09
4TH & 9
OWN 34
0
39.3%
Hugh Robertson punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 14FG
12 plays · 44 yds · 6:2460% → 70%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
39.9%
Darius Taylor run for 4 yds to the MINN 40Similar
Q3 10:16
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+15
38.9%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 15 yds to the ILL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
36.8%
Darius Taylor run for 3 yds to the ILL 42Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 7
OPP 42
-1
36.8%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Darius Taylor for a loss of 1 yard to the ILL 43Similar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+8
37.1%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Darius Taylor for 8 yds to the ILL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-7
35.2%
Max Brosmer sacked by Kenenna Odeluga for a loss of 7 yards to the ILL 42Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 17
OPP 42
+12
37.8%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 12 yds to the ILL 30Similar
Q3 6:11
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+7
36.1%
Darius Taylor run for 7 yds to the ILL 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
34.4%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+3
35.0%
Darius Taylor run for 3 yds to the ILL 20Similar
Q3 4:41
3RD & 7
OPP 20
0
35.0%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:36
4TH & 7
OPP 20
+38
29.9%
Dragan Kesich 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15PUNT
13 plays · 24 yds · 3:0934% → 32%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
33.9%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 2 yds to the ILL 27Similar
Q3 4:07
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
34.0%
PENALTY MINN Offside (Eastern,Deven) 5 yards from ILL27 to ILL32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+10
35.8%
Josh McCray run for 10 yds to the ILL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
36.8%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:57
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+2
35.3%
Luke Altmyer run for 2 yds to the ILL 44Similar
Q3 2:23
3RD & 8
OWN 44
-10
34.2%
(02:26) No Huddle-Shotgun Altmyer,Luke pass complete short right to Dixon,Collin caught at MINN45, for 11 yards to the MINN45, out of bounds at MINN45 PENALTY ILL Holding (Gesky,Josh) 10 yards from ILL44 to ILL34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 18
OWN 34
+15
31.5%
(02:06) No Huddle-Shotgun Altmyer,Luke sacked for loss of 6 yards to the ILL28 (Joyner,Jah) PENALTY MINN Face Mask (Joyner,Jah) 15 yards from ILL34 to ILL49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
36.6%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:32
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
35.9%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:28
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
33.4%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:21
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
32.1%
Hugh Robertson punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 16DOWNS
11 plays · 37 yds · 5:0271% → 73%
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
29.2%
Darius Taylor run for 7 yds to the MINN 24Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+4
27.2%
Darius Taylor run for 4 yds to the MINN 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
27.5%
Darius Taylor run for 2 yds to the MINN 30Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+1
27.4%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Darius Taylor for 1 yd to the MINN 31Similar
Q4 13:29
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+15
27.2%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Darius Taylor for 15 yds to the MINN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
24.1%
Marcus Major run for 3 yds to the MINN 49Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
22.9%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:52
3RD & 7
OWN 49
-5
23.2%
(11:57) Shotgun Brosmer,Max rush middle for 6 yards gain to the ILL45 (Scott,Miles) PENALTY MINN Illegal Formation 5 yards from MINN49 to MINN44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:21
3RD & 12
OWN 44
0
25.1%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:11
4TH & 12
OWN 44
+10
27.5%
Mark Crawford run for 10 yds to the ILL 46 Mark Crawford fumbled, recovered by MINN Mark CrawfordSimilar
Q4 11:11
4TH & 12
OWN 44
+10
27.5%
Mark Crawford run for 10 yds to the ILL 46 Mark Crawford fumbled, recovered by MINNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17TD
5 plays · 54 yds · 2:0433% → 67%
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
33.0%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+1
31.2%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 1 yd to the ILL 45Similar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 11
OWN 45
+16
28.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 16 yds to the MINN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+18
34.4%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Carson Goda for 18 yds to the MINN 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
67.2%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 21 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 18TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:4242% → 86%
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.0%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+37
58.6%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 37 yds to the ILL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
52.0%
Darius Taylor run for 15 yds to the ILL 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
49.4%
(07:38) PENALTY MINN Delay Of Game 5 yards from ILL23 to ILL28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 15
OPP 28
+10
49.6%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 10 yds to the ILL 18Similar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+13
48.6%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 13 yds to the ILL 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
48.6%
PENALTY ILL Targeting (Scott,Miles) 3 yards from ILL05 to ILL02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
48.3%
Darius Taylor run for 1 yd to the ILL 1Similar
Q4 5:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
14.5%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Jameson Geers for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19DOWNS
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:5020% → 19%
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
19.6%
Aidan Laughery run for 4 yds to the ILL 29Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
22.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Aidan Laughery for 4 yds to the ILL 33Similar
Q4 3:58
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
21.0%
Josh McCray run for 2 yds to the ILL 31Similar
Q4 3:17
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
19.0%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 20FG
7 plays · 3 yds · 1:1790% → 97%
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
9.9%
Darius Taylor run for 6 yds to the ILL 25Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+2
8.8%
Darius Taylor run for 2 yds to the ILL 23Similar
Q4 1:56
3RD & 2
OPP 23
0
6.6%
Darius Taylor run for no gain to the ILL 23Similar
Q4 1:56
4TH & 2
OPP 23
-5
7.3%
PENALTY MINN False Start (Ersery,Aireontae) 5 yards from ILL23 to ILL28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:52
4TH & 7
OPP 28
+46
3.4%
Dragan Kesich 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 21FUMBLE
11 plays · 48 yds · 1:145% → 7%
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
4.8%
Luke Altmyer run for 6 yds to the ILL 31Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
5.4%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:26
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+9
4.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Collin Dixon for 9 yds to the ILL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
5.3%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Kenari Wilcher for 7 yds to the ILL 47Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+11
5.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 11 yds to the MINN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
5.8%
Luke Altmyer run for 11 yds to the MINN 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
6.7%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Kenari Wilcher for 5 yds to the MINN 26Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 5
OPP 26
0
6.8%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:36
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+10
5.9%
Luke Altmyer run for 10 yds to the MINN 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-11
6.8%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Jah Joyner for a loss of 11 yards to the MINN 27 Luke Altmyer fumbled, recovered by MINN Danny Striggow , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
2.8%
M. Brosmer takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:14
Max Brosmer pass complete to Jameson Geers for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-33.8
TD · Q4 9:03
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 21 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)
+32.9
TD · Q2 3:28
Josh McCray run for 42 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)
+15.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com