Try the model
RUTG

Rutgers 20 at USC 42

USC
2024 · Week 9 · Oct 25, 2024 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadRUTG aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreRUTG score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:23 · Kyle Monangai run for 1 yd to the RUTG 49 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 18Pregame prior+28.0Home team on offense+1.1Score differential+0.3Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:26: Miller Moss pass complete to Kyle Ford for 11 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK) — USC win probability +4.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:53: Woody Marks run for 22 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK) — USC win probability +5.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:11: Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Christian Dremel for 25 yds for a TD (Chris Long pass to Athan Kaliakmanis for Two-Point Conversion) — RUTG win probability +11.5 pts (now 22%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:32: Miller Moss run for 7 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK) — USC win probability +6.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:22: Miller Moss pass complete to Makai Lemon for 40 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK) — USC win probability +3.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3RUTG made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 6:23RUTG 4th & 1 at RUTG 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.2%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:10RUTG 4th & 6 at USC 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.7%
    90% to make
    Punt
    17.5%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:42RUTG 4th & 4 at USC 30, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    17.5%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    17.0%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:50RUTG 4th & 3 at USC 33, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.1%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    9.9%−0.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    8.6%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:00RUTG 4th & 2 at USC 2, down 19
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.0%−2.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−7.8
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:25RUTG 4th & 5 at RUTG 30, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:38USC 4th & 6 at USC 47, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:14RUTG 4th & 7 at RUTG 28, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:22USC 4th & 11 at USC 34, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.1%−1.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:48RUTG 4th & 7 at RUTG 18, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.2%−0.7
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:46RUTG 4th & 2 at USC 40, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%−0.4
    34% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:49RUTG 4th & 1 at USC 13, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.9%−0.3
    85% to make
    Punt
    -0.8%−1.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:47USC 4th & 13 at USC 29, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−0.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:04RUTG 4th & 19 at USC 32, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%
    51% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 6 of 6RUTG made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 9:58USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:19USC Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:26USC Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:37RUTG Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    14.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:53USC Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:11RUTG Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    16.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    15.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:32USC Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:22USC Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1TD
10 plays · 77 yds · 4:5782% → 82%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
82.0%
Miller Moss pass complete to Woody Marks for 3 yds to the USC 26Similar
Q1 14:29
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+4
81.8%
Woody Marks run for 4 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+12
81.7%
Miller Moss pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 12 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+17
81.6%
Woody Marks run for 17 yds to the RUTG 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+13
81.6%
Miller Moss pass complete to Jay Fair for 13 yds to the RUTG 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+19
81.5%
Miller Moss pass complete to Kyle Ford for 19 yds Kyle Ford fumbled, recovered by USC Jay Fair J. Fair return for 0 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
81.3%
Woody Marks run for 3 yds to the RUTG 6Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
81.2%
Rutgers Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Flip Dixon) to the RUTG 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
81.2%
Woody Marks run for 2 yds to the RUTG 1Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
82.2%
Woody Marks run for 1 yd for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 2FG
13 plays · 67 yds · 5:4818% → 20%
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
81.7%
Kyle Monangai run for 4 yds to the RUTG 29Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
81.6%
Kyle Monangai run for 4 yds to the RUTG 33Similar
Q1 8:42
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
81.6%
Kyle Monangai run for 6 yds to the RUTG 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
81.4%
Rutgers Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the RUTG 34Similar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 15
OWN 34
+6
81.6%
Athan Kaliakmanis run for 6 yds to the RUTG 40Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+5
81.4%
Kyle Monangai run for 5 yds to the RUTG 45Similar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+3
81.2%
Kyle Monangai run for 3 yds to the RUTG 48Similar
Q1 6:23
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+1
81.3%
Kyle Monangai run for 1 yd to the RUTG 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+27
81.0%
Kyle Monangai run for 27 yds to the USC 24 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Face mask (0 yards) (Bryson Shaw) to the USC 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
80.6%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 10
OPP 12
-2
80.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 14Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 12
OPP 14
+6
80.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ben Black for 6 yds to the USC 8Similar
Q1 4:10
4TH & 6
OPP 8
+26
79.6%
Jai Patel 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3TD
4 plays · 20 yds · 1:3981% → 83%
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
80.7%
Miller Moss pass complete to Woody Marks for 9 yds to the RUTG 11Similar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 1
OPP 11
+6
80.6%
Miller Moss pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 6 yds to the RUTG 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
80.6%
Woody Marks run for 4 yds to the RUTG 1Similar
Q1 2:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
82.8%
Woody Marks run for 1 yd for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 4DOWNS
8 plays · 45 yds · 3:3718% → 18%
Q1 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
82.1%
Kyle Monangai run for 1 yd to the RUTG 26Similar
Q1 1:41
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
82.2%
Kyle Monangai run for 3 yds to the RUTG 29Similar
Q1 1:02
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+17
82.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Dymere Miller for 17 yds to the RUTG 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+18
81.6%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Dymere Miller for 18 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
81.3%
Kyle Monangai run for 2 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q2 14:24
2ND & 8
OPP 34
0
81.0%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:19
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+4
81.5%
Kyle Monangai run for 4 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q2 13:42
4TH & 4
OPP 30
0
82.2%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 3:1083% → 89%
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
83.3%
Miller Moss pass complete to Quinten Joyner for 10 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
83.8%
Quinten Joyner run for 5 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 5
OWN 46
0
84.0%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:21
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+18
83.6%
Miller Moss pass complete to Kyle Ford for 18 yds to the RUTG 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+14
84.1%
Miller Moss pass complete to Lake McRee for 14 yds to the RUTG 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
84.2%
Miller Moss pass complete to Makai Lemon for 11 yds to the RUTG 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
88.8%
Miller Moss pass complete to Kyle Ford for 11 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 6TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:4912% → 16%
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
88.2%
Antwan Raymond run for 8 yds to the RUTG 33Similar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
87.6%
Antwan Raymond run for 2 yds to the RUTG 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
88.2%
Athan Kaliakmanis run for 4 yds to the RUTG 39Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+3
88.1%
Kyle Monangai run for 3 yds to the RUTG 42Similar
Q2 7:47
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+5
87.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Dymere Miller for 5 yds to the RUTG 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
88.0%
Kyle Monangai run for 1 yd to the RUTG 48Similar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+7
88.2%
Kyle Monangai run for 7 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+5
87.9%
Kyle Monangai run for 5 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+22
87.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 22 yds to the USC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+15
87.4%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Dymere Miller for 15 yds to the USC 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
84.4%
Antwan Raymond run for 3 yds for a TD (Jai Patel PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7TD
7 plays · 81 yds · 2:3887% → 93%
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+19
87.2%
Miller Moss pass complete to Woody Marks for 19 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
87.7%
Woody Marks run for 7 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+5
87.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Woody Marks for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
50
+22
88.1%
Miller Moss pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 22 yds to the RUTG 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
88.5%
Woody Marks run for 6 yds to the RUTG 22Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+22
93.4%
Woody Marks run for 22 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 8FG
22 plays · 73 yds · 1:5310% → 14%
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
90.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Kyle Monangai for 5 yds to the RUTG 30Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
90.2%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:42
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
90.0%
Kyle Monangai run for 5 yds to the RUTG 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
89.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Dymere Miller for 6 yds to the RUTG 41Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+6
89.2%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Dymere Miller for 6 yds to the RUTG 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
89.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Chris Long for 13 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
88.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
88.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+7
89.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ben Black for 7 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q2 0:50
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+4
88.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Dymere Miller for 4 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-8
88.0%
Rutgers Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Athan Kaliakmanis) to the USC 36Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 18
OPP 37
+14
89.6%
Athan Kaliakmanis run for 14 yds to the USC 23Similar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+15
88.3%
(00:24) KALIAKMANIS, Athan pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for MILLER, Dymere thrown to the USC0, clock 00:20. PENALTY USC Pass Interference on ARNOLD, Akili enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards to the USC8 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
87.8%
(00:20) KALIAKMANIS, Athan pass to the left incomplete intended for DUFF, KJ broken up by NICHOLSON, DeCarlos at the USC0, clock 00:15. PENALTY USC Pass Interference on NICHOLSON, DeCarlos enforced at the spot of the foul for 6 yards to the USC2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
87.6%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
87.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
88.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
86.2%
Jai Patel 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3512% → 11%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
88.3%
Kyle Monangai run for 4 yds to the RUTG 29Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
87.9%
Kyle Monangai run for 1 yd to the RUTG 30Similar
Q3 13:32
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
88.2%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:25
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
89.0%
Jakob Anderson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Zachariah Branch at the USC 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:4090% → 90%
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
89.6%
Miller Moss pass complete to Makai Lemon for 13 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
90.4%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+4
90.3%
Woody Marks run for 4 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q3 11:44
3RD & 6
OWN 47
0
90.3%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:38
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
89.7%
Miller Moss punt for 39 yds, downed at the RUTG 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 11TD
7 plays · 86 yds · 3:1411% → 22%
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
89.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis sacked by Kameryn Fountain for a loss of 1 yard to the RUTG 13Similar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 11
OWN 13
+10
89.7%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 10 yds to the RUTG 23Similar
Q3 10:22
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+2
89.3%
Antwan Raymond run for 2 yds to the RUTG 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
90.1%
Antwan Raymond run for 5 yds to the RUTG 30Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
89.7%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+45
90.0%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Dymere Miller for 45 yds to the USC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
78.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Christian Dremel for 25 yds for a TD (Chris Long pass to Athan Kaliakmanis for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 12TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3984% → 92%
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+70
83.7%
Miller Moss pass complete to Makai Lemon for 70 yds to the RUTG 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
86.0%
Woody Marks run for 2 yds to the RUTG 3Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
86.1%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
85.2%
(06:42) MOSS, Miller pass short to the right incomplete intended for LANE, Ja'Kobi thrown to the RUT0, clock 06:38. PENALTY RUT Pass Interference on LOYAL, Shaquan enforced at the spot of the foul for 1 yards to the RUT2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
86.1%
USC Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the RUTG 7Similar
Q3 6:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
92.4%
Miller Moss run for 7 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 2:259% → 6%
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
90.7%
Antwan Raymond run for a loss of 2 yards to the RUTG 23Similar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
91.0%
Antwan Raymond run for no gain to the RUTG 23Similar
Q3 5:07
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+5
91.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Kyle Monangai for 5 yds to the RUTG 28Similar
Q3 4:14
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
91.7%
Jakob Anderson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Zachariah Branch at the USC 35Similar
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
94.1%
USC Penalty, False Start (Zachariah Branch) to the USC 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:4594% → 94%
Q3 4:07
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+4
94.0%
Miller Moss pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 4 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
94.1%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:26
3RD & 11
OWN 34
0
93.9%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:22
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
93.5%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Christian Dremel at the RUTG 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:268% → 7%
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
91.7%
Antwan Raymond run for a loss of 1 yard to the RUTG 14Similar
Q3 2:34
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+4
92.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Kyle Monangai for 4 yds to the RUTG 18Similar
Q3 1:58
3RD & 7
OWN 18
0
92.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:48
4TH & 7
OWN 18
0
93.2%
Jakob Anderson punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Zachariah Branch at the USC 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16TD
3 plays · 54 yds · 1:1995% → 99%
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
94.8%
Woody Marks run for 2 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q3 1:07
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+12
94.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Woody Marks for 12 yds to the RUTG 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
98.5%
Miller Moss pass complete to Makai Lemon for 40 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 17DOWNS
15 plays · 62 yds · 5:332% → 1%
Q3 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.4%
Antwan Raymond run for 2 yds to the RUTG 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+14
98.4%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Christian Dremel for 14 yds to the RUTG 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
98.5%
Antwan Raymond run for 7 yds to the RUTG 48Similar
Q4 13:47
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+2
98.6%
Antwan Raymond run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:24
3RD & 1
50
+2
98.6%
Antwan Raymond run for 2 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
98.7%
Antwan Raymond run for 1 yd to the USC 47Similar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+4
98.7%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Dymere Miller for 4 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q4 12:05
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+3
98.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Dymere Miller for 3 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q4 11:46
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+4
98.8%
Antwan Raymond run for 4 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
98.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+14
98.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Mike Higgins for 14 yds to the USC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
98.7%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:47
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+8
98.7%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Dymere Miller for 8 yds to the USC 14Similar
Q4 10:23
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+1
98.8%
Antwan Raymond run for 1 yd to the USC 13Similar
Q4 9:49
4TH & 1
OPP 13
0
98.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:5799% → 99%
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+19
98.9%
Woody Marks run for 19 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
98.9%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
98.9%
Woody Marks run for no gain to the USC 32Similar
Q4 8:26
3RD & 10
OWN 32
-3
98.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Kyle Ford for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 29Similar
Q4 7:47
4TH & 13
OWN 29
0
99.0%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Christian Dremel at the RUTG 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 19DOWNS
13 plays · 43 yds · 4:361% → 1%
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Mike Higgins for 5 yds to the RUTG 30Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
99.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:12
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
99.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Antwan Raymond for 9 yds to the RUTG 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
99.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:47
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-5
99.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis sacked by Sam Greene for a loss of 5 yards to the RUTG 34Similar
Q4 6:03
3RD & 15
OWN 34
+19
99.4%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Antwan Raymond for 19 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
99.3%
Dymere Miller run for no gain to the USC 47Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+5
99.4%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Mike Higgins for 5 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+19
99.4%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 19 yds to the USC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
99.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
99.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:46
3RD & 10
OPP 23
-9
99.4%
Athan Kaliakmanis sacked by Zion Branch for a loss of 9 yards to the USC 32Similar
Q4 3:04
4TH & 19
OPP 32
0
99.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20END OF GAME
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:4999% → 100%
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
99.4%
Jayden Maiava run for 13 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
99.5%
Quinten Joyner run for 3 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+6
99.7%
Quinten Joyner run for 6 yds to the RUTG 46Similar
Q4 1:19
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+2
99.7%
Bryan Jackson run for 2 yds to the RUTG 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
99.7%
Bryan Jackson run for 1 yd to the RUTG 43Similar
Q4 0:08
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+4
99.7%
A'Marion Peterson run for 4 yds to the RUTG 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:11
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Christian Dremel for 25 yds for a TD (Chris Long pass to Athan Kaliakmanis for Two-Point Conversion)
-11.5
TD · Q3 6:32
Miller Moss run for 7 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)
+6.3
TD · Q2 1:53
Woody Marks run for 22 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)
+5.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com