2024 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2024 · Camp Randall Stadium
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Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playWIS scorePSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:04 · Atticus Bertrams run for 15 yds to the PSU 44 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 14:37: Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 6 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK) — PSU win probability +3.5 pts (now 68%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:23: Tawee Walker run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK) — WIS win probability +12.4 pts (now 48%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:29: Jaylen Reed 19 Yd Interception Return (Ryan Barker Kick) — PSU win probability +19.4 pts (now 66%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
- TD · Q4 10:01: Beau Pribula pass complete to Khalil Dinkins for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK) — PSU win probability +7.4 pts (now 86%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 3:10: Kaytron Allen run for 24 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK) — PSU win probability +4.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WIS made the numbers' call on 7 of 10PSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
- Q1 13:04WIS 4th & 9 at WIS 41, tiedClose callWent for it · 35.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call35.8%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt35.9%average punt
- Q1 11:05WIS 4th & 9 at PSU 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.8% before the snapGo for it36.7%−<0.132% to convertField goalTheir call36.7%49% to makePunt36.7%−0.1average punt
- Q1 6:07PSU 4th & 1 at WIS 28, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call60.8%71% to convertField goal60.2%−0.660% to makePunt58.8%−1.9average punt
- Q1 2:49WIS 4th & 11 at WIS 38, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snapGo for it40.0%−0.626% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.6%average punt
- Q2 11:00WIS 4th & 2 at WIS 47, down 4Close callPunted · 39.7% before the snapGo for it39.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.1%−0.8average punt
- Q2 8:27PSU 4th & 3 at PSU 29, up 4Close callPunted · 59.9% before the snapGo for it60.5%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.2%−0.2average punt
- Q2 7:56WIS 4th & 10 at WIS 37, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.1% before the snapGo for it36.4%−1.029% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.4%average punt
- Q2 4:10PSU 4th & 12 at PSU 29, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.6% before the snapGo for it58.3%−1.522% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.7%average punt
- Q2 0:48PSU 4th & 13 at PSU 40, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.8% before the snapGo for it46.9%−1.720% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call48.6%average punt
- Q3 11:30PSU 4th & 7 at WIS 44, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.5% before the snapGo for it48.8%−0.137% to convertField goal46.9%−1.927% to makePuntTheir call48.8%average punt
- Q3 10:21WIS 4th & 6 at WIS 15, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.5% before the snapGo for it50.6%−1.339% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call51.9%average punt
- Q3 7:42PSU 4th & 2 at PSU 46, down 3Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 46.5% before the snapGo for it47.4%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.0%−1.4average punt
- Q3 2:44WIS 4th & 7 at PSU 15, down 5Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.7% before the snapGo for it34.4%−1.534% to convertField goalTheir call35.8%83% to makePunt21.2%−14.6average punt
- Q4 8:35WIS 4th & 7 at WIS 28, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snapGo for it15.9%−1.236% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.0%average punt
- Q4 1:46WIS 4th & 8 at PSU 48, down 15Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.6%34% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.3%−0.2average punt
- Q4 1:10WIS 4th & 9 at PSU 15, down 15Close callWent for it · 3.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.7%−0.529% to convertField goal3.2%83% to makePunt2.0%−1.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 1 of 1PSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q2 14:37PSU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call61.8%97% to makeGo for two61.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:23WIS Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call50.6%97% to makeGo for two50.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:29PSU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call61.2%97% to makeGo for two61.0%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 3:10PSU Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.5%97% to makeGo for two96.5%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWISDrive 1FG13 plays · 42 yds · 3:5829% → 32%
PSUDrive 2DOWNS10 plays · 54 yds · 4:5269% → 66%
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
31.4%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 2 yds to the PSU 20Similar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+16
32.6%
Drew Allar pass complete to Julian Fleming for 16 yds to the PSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
32.5%
Drew Allar pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 13 yds to the WIS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+5
32.5%
ALLAR, Drew sacked for a loss of 3 yards at the WIS45 (PETERSON, Darryl), clock 07:56. PENALTY Before the snap, WIS Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the WIS42 to the WIS37 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:07
4TH & 1
OPP 28
0
33.8%
Drew Allar run for no gain to the WIS 28 Drew Allar fumbled, recovered by WIS Nyzier Fourqurean N. Fourqurean return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 3PUNT8 plays · 10 yds · 3:2634% → 35%
Q1 4:04
3RD & 9
OWN 40
-10
35.1%
(04:04) LOCKE, Braedyn pass up the middle complete for 23 yards to KEKAHUNA, Trech caught at the WIS47 and advanced to the PSU37 (WINSTON, Kevin), clock 03:57. PENALTY WIS Holding on NELSON, Jack enforced 10 yards from the WIS40 to the WIS30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 19
OWN 30
+8
35.0%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 8 yds to the WIS 38Similar
Q1 2:49
4TH & 11
OWN 38
0
35.2%
Atticus Bertrams punt for 52 yds , Zion Tracy returns for no gain to the PSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4TD9 plays · 90 yds · 2:4764% → 68%
Q1 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
36.3%
Drew Allar pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 9 yds to the PSU 19Similar
Q1 1:05
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+15
36.2%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 15 yds to the PSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+17
36.2%
Drew Allar pass complete to Khalil Dinkins for 17 yds to the WIS 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+27
35.6%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 27 yds to the WIS 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
31.9%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 6 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 5PUNT8 plays · 34 yds · 3:2934% → 35%
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+14
33.5%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Darrion Dupree for 14 yds to the WIS 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+8
33.7%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Riley Nowakowski for 8 yds to the WIS 35Similar
Q2 11:44
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+5
34.7%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 5 yds to the WIS 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 21 yds · 2:4065% → 64%
WISDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5236% → 34%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8PUNT8 plays · 9 yds · 3:5266% → 64%
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-10
34.1%
(05:38) SINGLETON, Nicholas rush to the right for a gain of 8 yards to the PSU39 (THOMAS, Jaheim), clock 05:47. PENALTY PSU Holding on DINKINS, Khalil enforced 10 yards from the PSU31 to the PSU21 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 20
OWN 21
+5
34.7%
Drew Allar pass complete to Kaytron Allen for 5 yds to the PSU 26Similar
Q2 4:10
4TH & 12
OWN 29
0
36.8%
Riley Thompson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Hunter Wohler at the WIS 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 9TD14 plays · 73 yds · 2:5135% → 48%
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
35.4%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 8 yds to the WIS 35Similar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+13
37.2%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Will Pauling for 13 yds to the PSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+28
35.8%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Will Pauling for 28 yds to the PSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
47.7%
(01:13) LOCKE, Braedyn pass short to the left incomplete intended for MCDONALD, Cade thrown to the PSU0, clock 01:26. PENALTY Before the snap, PSU Illegal Substitution enforced half the distance from the goal, 1 yards from the PSU2 to the PSU1. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 15 yds · 0:4354% → 55%
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
45.6%
Drew Allar pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 18 yds to the PSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
43.0%
Drew Allar sacked by Jake Chaney for a loss of 3 yards to the PSU 40Similar
Q2 0:48
4TH & 13
OWN 40
+11
47.0%
Riley Thompson punt for 51 yds , Hunter Wohler returns for 11 yds to the WIS 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 11END OF HALF1 play · 3 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12PUNT9 plays · 31 yds · 7:0853% → 50%
Q3 14:03
3RD & 3
50
+3
44.9%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Tyler Warren for 3 yds to the WIS 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:38
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+4
45.6%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Kaytron Allen for 4 yds to the WIS 39Similar
Q3 11:30
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
48.5%
Riley Thompson punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Hunter Wohler at the WIS 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3650% → 50%
Q3 10:21
4TH & 6
OWN 15
+2
48.6%
Atticus Bertrams punt for 49 yds , Zion Tracy returns for 2 yds to the PSU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 2:3052% → 49%
Q3 9:22
2ND & 6
OWN 42
-2
47.6%
Beau Pribula run for a loss of 2 yards to the PSU 40 Beau Pribula fumbled, recovered by PSU Beau Pribula B. Pribula return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q3 8:13
3RD & 13
OWN 35
+11
53.1%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Kaytron Allen for 11 yds to the PSU 46Similar
Q3 7:42
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
50.9%
Riley Thompson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Hunter Wohler at the WIS 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 15INT TD3 plays · -4 yds · 1:2353% → 34%
WISDrive 16FG8 plays · 51 yds · 3:3934% → 35%
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
33.7%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Will Pauling for 5 yds to the WIS 39Similar
Q3 5:24
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+11
33.7%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 11 yds to the WIS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+33
36.6%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to C.J. Williams for 33 yds to the PSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+2
37.2%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 2 yds to the PSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17TD14 plays · 81 yds · 7:3570% → 86%
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+12
30.4%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Liam Clifford for 12 yds to the PSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+17
25.6%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 17 yds to the WIS 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 11
OPP 23
+7
24.0%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Tyler Warren for 7 yds to the WIS 16Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+10
24.9%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 10 yds to the WIS 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
23.4%
(12:00) QB Keeper PRIBULA, Beau rush up the middle for no gain to the WIS6 (MCDONALD, Cade), clock 11:50. PENALTY Before the snap, WIS Illegal Substitution enforced half the distance from the goal, 3 yards from the WIS6 to the WIS3. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
14.0%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Khalil Dinkins for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2620% → 17%
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
19.6%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Tucker Ashcraft for 4 yds to the WIS 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19TD9 plays · 76 yds · 5:3184% → 97%
WISDrive 20DOWNS17 plays · 68 yds · 2:004% → 3%
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
3.6%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Will Pauling for 11 yds to the WIS 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+14
3.4%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
3.4%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Will Pauling for 3 yds to the PSU 33Similar
Q4 1:46
4TH & 8
OPP 48
+12
3.1%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Will Pauling for 12 yds to the PSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+6
3.9%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Will Pauling for 6 yds to the PSU 27Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+1
3.4%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Will Pauling for 1 yd to the PSU 15Similar
Q4 1:10
4TH & 9
OPP 15
+8
2.5%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to C.J. Williams for 8 yds to the PSU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:29
Jaylen Reed 19 Yd Interception Return (Ryan Barker Kick)
-19.4
TD · Q2 1:23
Tawee Walker run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)
+12.4
TD · Q4 10:01
Beau Pribula pass complete to Khalil Dinkins for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)
-7.4