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MSU

Michigan State 17 at Michigan 24

MICH
2024 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2024 · Michigan Stadium
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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · D. Warren takes a knee
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:02: Dominic Zvada 37 yd FG GOOD — MICH win probability +9.9 pts (now 66%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:49: Alex Orji run for 2 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK) — MICH win probability +10.9 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 3:45: Jonathan Kim 46 yd FG GOOD — MSU win probability +9.5 pts (now 32%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:20: Colston Loveland 23 Yd pass from Donovan Edwards (Davis Warren Pass to Colston Loveland for Two-Point Conversion) — MICH win probability +14.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:12: Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 20 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK) — MSU win probability +9.8 pts (now 18%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 5 of 6MSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 6:52MSU 4th & 7 at MICH 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    38.7%−1.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:23MICH 4th & 9 at MICH 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:23MICH 4th & 9 at MICH 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:10MSU 4th & 1 at MICH 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.4%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    40.5%−0.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    38.0%−3.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:46MICH 4th & 8 at MICH 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%−0.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:12MSU 4th & 12 at MSU 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−1.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:12MSU 4th & 12 at MSU 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−1.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:17MICH 4th & 5 at midfield, down 7
    Close callPunted · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.8%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:58MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 24, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%−1.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:45MSU 4th & 3 at MICH 28, down 9
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.0%−1.4
    60% to make
    Punt
    10.0%−10.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:06MICH 4th & 9 at MSU 46, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.7%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    72.8%−2.7
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    75.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:26MSU 4th & 5 at MSU 18, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−1.0
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:34MICH 4th & 9 at MICH 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.6%−1.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:52MSU 4th & 5 at MICH 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.4%
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    9.6%−1.9
    81% to make
    Punt
    4.6%−6.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:52MSU 4th & 5 at MICH 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.4%
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    9.6%−1.9
    81% to make
    Punt
    4.6%−6.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 1 of 3MSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 0:10MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:29MICH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    55.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    55.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:49MICH Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:20MICH Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    90.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    89.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:12MSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.6%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1MISSED FG
16 plays · 68 yds · 8:0139% → 40%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
60.9%
Aidan Chiles run for 4 yds to the MSU 29Similar
Q1 14:06
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
60.8%
Aidan Chiles run for 8 yds to the MSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
60.8%
Nate Carter run for 3 yds to the MSU 40Similar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+26
60.7%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nate Carter for 26 yds to the MICH 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
60.4%
Makhi Frazier run for 1 yd to the MICH 33Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+7
60.4%
Nate Carter run for 7 yds to the MICH 26Similar
Q1 11:02
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+6
60.4%
Nate Carter run for 6 yds to the MICH 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
60.1%
Aidan Chiles run for 7 yds to the MICH 13Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+1
60.1%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 1 yd to the MICH 12Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+6
60.0%
Nate Carter run for 6 yds to the MICH 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
59.7%
Montorie Foster Jr. run for 3 yds to the MICH 3Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
59.5%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 1 yd to the MICH 2Similar
Q1 6:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
59.7%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
60.1%
PENALTY MSU Delay Of Game (Chiles,Aidan) 5 yards from UOM02 to UOM07. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
60.2%
Jonathan Kim 25 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2361% → 60%
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
60.6%
Kalel Mullings run for 1 yd to the MICH 19Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+2
60.5%
Kalel Mullings run for 2 yds to the MICH 21Similar
Q1 5:29
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
60.1%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:23
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
59.8%
Tommy Doman punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Montorie Foster Jr. at the MSU 38Similar
Q1 5:23
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
59.8%
Tommy Doman punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Montorie Foster Jr. at the MSU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3TD
10 plays · 62 yds · 5:0140% → 47%
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
60.0%
Makhi Frazier run for 1 yd to the MSU 39Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+15
59.9%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 15 yds to the MICH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
59.2%
Alante Brown run for 1 yd to the MICH 45Similar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 9
OPP 45
0
59.1%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:05
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+34
59.5%
Nate Carter run for 34 yds to the MICH 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
57.7%
Aidan Chiles run for 8 yds to the MICH 3Similar
Q1 1:29
2ND & 2
OPP 3
+1
57.5%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 1 yd to the MICH 2Similar
Q1 0:53
3RD & 1
OPP 2
0
57.8%
Nate Carter run for no gain to the MICH 2Similar
Q1 0:10
4TH & 1
OPP 2
+2
52.6%
Nate Carter run for 2 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:1454% → 52%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
53.7%
Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 14 yds to the MICH 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
54.4%
Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the MICH 42Similar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+2
54.6%
Davis Warren pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 2 yds to the MICH 44Similar
Q2 13:24
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+3
53.8%
Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the MICH 41Similar
Q2 12:46
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
52.1%
Tommy Doman punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 3:2848% → 48%
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
52.5%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 7 yds to the MSU 17Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+4
51.9%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 4 yds to the MSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
51.7%
Aidan Chiles run for 2 yds to the MSU 23Similar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+1
51.4%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 1 yd to the MSU 24Similar
Q2 9:44
3RD & 7
OWN 24
-5
51.1%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams for a loss of 5 yards to the MSU 19Similar
Q2 9:12
4TH & 12
OWN 19
0
51.9%
Ryan Eckley punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Semaj Morgan at the MICH 30Similar
Q2 9:12
4TH & 12
OWN 19
0
51.9%
Ryan Eckley punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Semaj Morgan at the MICH 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 3:4751% → 48%
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
50.7%
Kalel Mullings run for 1 yd to the MICH 29Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+10
49.9%
Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 10 yds to the MICH 39Similar
Q2 7:53
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+6
50.3%
Kalel Mullings run for 6 yds to the MICH 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-3
50.4%
Davis Warren pass complete to Semaj Morgan for a loss of 3 yards to the MICH 42Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 13
OWN 42
+7
48.6%
Davis Warren run for 7 yds to the MICH 49Similar
Q2 5:53
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+1
49.3%
Kalel Mullings run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:17
4TH & 5
50
0
48.1%
Tommy Doman punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Montorie Foster Jr. at the MSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:1453% → 55%
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
46.9%
Nate Carter run for 3 yds to the MSU 12Similar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 13
OWN 12
+4
46.9%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 4 yds to the MSU 16 Michigan State Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 3:55
3RD & 9
OWN 16
+8
47.2%
Nate Carter run for 8 yds to the MSU 24Similar
Q2 2:58
4TH & 1
OWN 24
+14
45.3%
Ryan Eckley punt for 54 yds , Tyler Morris returns for 14 yds to the MICH 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8TD
12 plays · 64 yds · 2:2247% → 57%
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
46.6%
Donovan Edwards run for 2 yds to the MICH 38Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+3
46.5%
Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 3 yds to the MICH 41Similar
Q2 1:52
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+6
46.5%
Davis Warren pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 6 yds to the MICH 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
47.8%
Davis Warren pass complete to Peyton O'Leary for 15 yds to the MSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
48.7%
Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 7 yds to the MSU 31Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+5
50.1%
Donovan Edwards run for 5 yds to the MSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
50.1%
Donovan Edwards run for 4 yds to the MSU 22Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+11
48.5%
Donovan Edwards run for 11 yds to the MSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
48.4%
Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the MSU 10Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+10
56.6%
Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 10 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9FUMBLE
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:0947% → 49%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
53.4%
Nate Carter run for 14 yds to the MSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
51.3%
Aidan Chiles sacked by Josaiah Stewart for a loss of 5 yards to the MSU 34 Aidan Chiles fumbled, recovered by MICH Kenneth Grant , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10FG
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:0457% → 66%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
56.5%
Davis Warren pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 15 yds to the MSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+37
66.4%
Dominic Zvada 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
61.8%
A. Chiles takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:0464% → 79%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
63.5%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
63.3%
Kalel Mullings run for 2 yds to the MICH 27Similar
Q3 14:09
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
62.1%
Davis Warren pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 9 yds to the MICH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+29
64.6%
Alex Orji run for 29 yds to the MSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+23
67.2%
Davis Warren pass complete to Tyler Morris for 23 yds to the MSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
67.2%
Semaj Morgan run for 7 yds to the MSU 5Similar
Q3 11:37
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+1
67.4%
Kalel Mullings run for 1 yd to the MSU 4Similar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+3
66.2%
Kalel Mullings run for 3 yds to the MSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.6%
Kalel Mullings run for 1 yd to the MSU 2Similar
Q3 9:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
67.7%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
78.6%
Alex Orji run for 2 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13FG
12 plays · 67 yds · 5:5524% → 32%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+9
76.3%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 9 yds to the MSU 14Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 1
OWN 14
+4
76.2%
Nate Carter run for 4 yds to the MSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
78.0%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 6 yds to the MSU 24Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 4
OWN 24
0
77.7%
Nate Carter run for no gain to the MSU 24Similar
Q3 7:07
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+30
79.2%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 30 yds to the MICH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
76.4%
Nate Carter run for 11 yds to the MICH 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
75.5%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 6 yds to the MICH 29Similar
Q3 5:14
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+3
75.6%
Nate Carter run for 3 yds to the MICH 26Similar
Q3 4:26
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+2
77.6%
Nate Carter run for 2 yds to the MICH 28Similar
Q3 3:45
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+46
68.1%
Jonathan Kim 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:3276% → 75%
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
76.3%
Donovan Edwards run for no gain to the MSU 47Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+1
77.8%
Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the MSU 46Similar
Q3 2:13
3RD & 9
OPP 46
0
76.7%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:06
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
74.6%
Tommy Doman punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Montorie Foster Jr. at the MSU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:4030% → 27%
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-5
70.5%
PENALTY MSU False Start (Parachek,Brennan) 5 yards from MSU13 to MSU08. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:52
1ST & 15
OWN 8
+7
71.0%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Brennan Parachek for 7 yds to the MSU 15Similar
Q3 1:11
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+3
70.8%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 3 yds to the MSU 18Similar
Q3 0:38
3RD & 5
OWN 18
0
72.1%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:26
4TH & 5
OWN 18
+8
73.4%
Ryan Eckley punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MICH 40 , Semaj Morgan returns for 8 yds to the MICH 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 1:4080% → 94%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
79.6%
Alex Orji run for 3 yds to the MICH 43Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
79.6%
Alex Orji run for 3 yds to the MICH 43Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+15
79.9%
PENALTY MSU Targeting (Turner,Jordan) 15 yards from UOM43 to MSU42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
80.4%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:39
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+7
80.3%
Alex Orji run for 7 yds to the MSU 35Similar
Q4 13:58
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+12
79.8%
Davis Warren pass complete to Kendrick Bell for 12 yds to the MSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
93.9%
Colston Loveland 23 Yd pass from Donovan Edwards (Davis Warren Pass to Colston Loveland for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:579% → 18%
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
90.8%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 9 yds to the MSU 34Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
90.0%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 4 yds to the MSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
90.2%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for no gain to the MSU 38Similar
Q4 11:12
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
90.5%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:04
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+14
91.2%
Nate Carter run for 14 yds to the MICH 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
91.0%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Alante Brown for 5 yds to the MICH 43Similar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+7
90.5%
Nate Carter run for 7 yds to the MICH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
91.2%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 8 yds to the MICH 28Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+1
90.5%
Nate Carter run for 1 yd to the MICH 27Similar
Q4 8:12
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+9
91.2%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 9 yds to the MICH 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-4
90.8%
Aidan Chiles sacked by Cameron Brandt for a loss of 4 yards to the MICH 22Similar
Q4 6:51
2ND & 14
OPP 22
+2
92.0%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 2 yds to the MICH 20Similar
Q4 6:12
3RD & 12
OPP 20
+20
82.2%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 20 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:3189% → 89%
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
89.4%
Kalel Mullings run for 1 yd to the MICH 26Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
90.1%
Kalel Mullings run for no gain to the MICH 26Similar
Q4 4:42
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
89.6%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:34
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
88.8%
Tommy Doman punt for 25 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19DOWNS
10 plays · 35 yds · 2:3617% → 16%
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-14
82.9%
Michigan State Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Aidan Chiles) to the MSU 35Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 24
OWN 35
+14
87.0%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 14 yds to the MSU 49Similar
Q4 3:38
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+30
85.6%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nate Carter for 30 yds to the MICH 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
81.0%
Nate Carter run for 3 yds to the MICH 18Similar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 7
OPP 18
-5
81.2%
PENALTY MSU False Start (Ramil,Stanton) 5 yards from UOM18 to UOM23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 12
OPP 23
0
82.2%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:03
3RD & 12
OPP 23
+7
85.2%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 7 yds to the MICH 16Similar
Q4 1:52
4TH & 5
OPP 16
0
83.7%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:52
4TH & 5
OPP 16
0
83.7%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20END OF GAME
7 plays · 27 yds · 1:4394% → 97%
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+15
94.2%
Alex Orji run for 15 yds to the MICH 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
95.1%
Kalel Mullings run for 3 yds to the MICH 34Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+2
95.1%
Kalel Mullings run for 2 yds to the MICH 36Similar
Q4 1:04
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+8
97.2%
Alex Orji run for 8 yds to the MICH 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
96.8%
D. Warren takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:20
Colston Loveland 23 Yd pass from Donovan Edwards (Davis Warren Pass to Colston Loveland for Two-Point Conversion)
+14.1
TD · Q3 9:49
Alex Orji run for 2 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
+10.9
FG · Q2 0:02
Dominic Zvada 37 yd FG GOOD
+9.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com