View as
Win probability · RUTG
modelRUTG aheadUCLA aheadconfidence bandkey playRUTG scoreUCLA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:28 · Mateen Bhaghani 54 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 2:43: Ethan Garbers run for 49 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK) — UCLA win probability +12.0 pts (now 56%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:53: Ethan Garbers pass complete to Keegan Jones for 67 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK) — UCLA win probability +18.5 pts (now 67%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:13: Ethan Garbers pass complete to Jalen Berger for 9 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK) — UCLA win probability +13.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
- TD · Q4 10:35: Kyle Monangai run for 5 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — RUTG win probability +12.3 pts (now 25%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q4 1:23: Kyle Monangai run for 1 yd for a TD (Jai Patel KICK) — RUTG win probability +28.4 pts (now 36%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
RUTG made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UCLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q2 14:00UCLA 4th & 8 at RUTG 46, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 39.0% before the snapGo for it39.0%−0.134% to convertField goal38.5%−0.723% to makePuntTheir call39.2%average punt
- Q2 9:22RUTG 4th & 7 at RUTG 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 61.5% before the snapGo for it61.2%−0.237% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.5%average punt
- Q2 7:08UCLA 4th & 1 at UCLA 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call40.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt38.7%−1.4average punt
- Q2 1:08RUTG 4th & 10 at UCLA 31, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.7% before the snapGo for it45.3%−1.129% to convertField goalTheir call46.4%54% to makePunt44.2%−2.2average punt
- Q3 10:33UCLA 4th & 13 at UCLA 22, up 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.3% before the snapGo for it49.8%−4.919% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.7%average punt
- Q3 8:03RUTG 4th & 9 at UCLA 35, down 5Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call45.8%32% to convertField goal45.7%−0.145% to makePunt44.3%−1.5average punt
- Q3 5:41RUTG 4th & 10 at UCLA 17, down 5Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.8% before the snapGo for it42.6%−2.427% to convertField goalTheir call45.0%80% to makePunt32.4%−12.7average punt
- Q3 2:39RUTG 4th & 5 at RUTG 30, down 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snapGo for it31.0%−0.841% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.7%average punt
- Q4 6:28UCLA 4th & 12 at RUTG 37, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.5% before the snapGo for it85.5%−0.724% to convertField goalTheir call86.1%40% to makePunt85.6%−0.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RUTG made the numbers' call on 1 of 4UCLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 9:03UCLA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call39.1%97% to makeGo for two39.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:43RUTG Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call62.2%97% to makeGo for two62.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:43UCLA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call51.3%97% to makeGo for two51.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:22UCLA Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call60.9%97% to makeGo for two60.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:45RUTG Touchdown, down 5 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick47.8%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call47.6%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 4:53UCLA Touchdown, up 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.5%97% to makeGo for two69.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 12:13UCLA Touchdown, up 15 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call88.0%−0.197% to makeGo for two88.2%45% to convert
- Q4 10:35RUTG Touchdown, down 10 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick21.5%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call21.0%−0.545% to convert
- Q4 1:23RUTG Touchdown, down 4 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call13.4%−0.697% to makeGo for two14.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUCLADrive 1TD11 plays · 75 yds · 5:5736% → 39%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
64.0%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Bryce Pierre for 6 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+17
63.9%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Moliki Matavao for 17 yds to the RUTG 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:17
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+8
63.6%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 8 yds to the RUTG 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+19
63.4%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 19 yds to the RUTG 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
60.8%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Logan Loya for 5 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 2TD9 plays · 75 yds · 4:1561% → 65%
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
61.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis sacked by Oluwafemi Oladejo and Devin Aupiu for a loss of 7 yards to the RUTG 18Similar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+4
61.0%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Kyle Monangai for 4 yds to the RUTG 22Similar
Q1 7:23
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+42
60.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 42 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+17
61.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Dymere Miller for 17 yds to the UCLA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 3PUNT12 plays · 49 yds · 5:2537% → 38%
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+8
63.2%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Moliki Matavao for 8 yds to the UCLA 13Similar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 2
OWN 13
+5
63.0%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Kwazi Gilmer for 5 yds to the UCLA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
62.9%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Keegan Jones for 8 yds to the UCLA 26Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 2
OWN 26
+8
62.3%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Bryce Pierre for 8 yds to the UCLA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:02
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+14
61.9%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Moliki Matavao for 14 yds to the RUTG 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
60.7%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to T.J. Harden for 6 yds to the RUTG 42Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 4
OPP 42
-4
60.4%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to T.J. Harden for a loss of 4 yards to the RUTG 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 4PUNT10 plays · 42 yds · 4:3163% → 62%
UCLADrive 5TD11 plays · 91 yds · 6:2939% → 56%
Q2 8:39
2ND & 9
OWN 10
-3
61.3%
Ethan Garbers run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 7 Ethan Garbers fumbled, recovered by UCLA Ethan Garbers E. Garbers return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q2 7:57
3RD & 12
OWN 7
+11
61.2%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 11 yds to the UCLA 18Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+8
59.5%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 8 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q2 4:51
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+19
60.1%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Keegan Jones for 19 yds to the UCLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
57.1%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to T.J. Harden for 10 yds to the RUTG 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 6FG9 plays · 44 yds · 1:3049% → 53%
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
48.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 17 yds to the RUTG 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
50.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 14 yds to the UCLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+12
50.2%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 12 yds to the UCLA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 7TD8 plays · 75 yds · 0:4148% → 64%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
51.6%
Ethan Garbers sacked by Jordan Thompson and Kyonte Hamilton for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 24Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+20
53.0%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Moliki Matavao for 20 yds to the UCLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+18
49.8%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Keegan Jones for 18 yds to the RUTG 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
48.5%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Keegan Jones for 2 yds to the RUTG 36Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+14
48.7%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Logan Loya for 14 yds to the RUTG 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+22
36.5%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to T.J. Harden for 22 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 8END OF HALF1 play · 6 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 9TD5 plays · 75 yds · 2:1540% → 54%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
40.0%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Dymere Miller for 24 yds to the RUTG 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
41.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Christian Dremel for 8 yds to the UCLA 43Similar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
42.6%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Dymere Miller for 7 yds to the UCLA 6Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+6
53.8%
Kyle Monangai run for 6 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 10PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 2:0853% → 52%
RUTGDrive 11FG12 plays · 41 yds · 4:4850% → 55%
UCLADrive 12TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:4549% → 67%
RUTGDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 2:1435% → 31%
Q3 2:39
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
31.0%
Riley McCann punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Logan Loya at the UCLA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 14TD11 plays · 70 yds · 5:1470% → 91%
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
30.5%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Bryce Pierre for 6 yds to the UCLA 36Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+3
28.3%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Kwazi Gilmer for 3 yds to the UCLA 39Similar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
24.9%
GARBERS, Ethan pass deep to the right incomplete intended for STURDIVANT, J.Michael thrown to the RU10, clock 14:20. PENALTY RU Pass Interference on MASCOE, Bo enforced 15 yards to the RU28 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
23.9%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Kwazi Gilmer for no gain to the RUTG 28Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+20
23.7%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Moliki Matavao for 20 yds to the RUTG 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
8.9%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Jalen Berger for 9 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 15TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3113% → 25%
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
13.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ben Black for 9 yds to the RUTG 34Similar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+59
12.2%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 59 yds to the UCLA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
24.5%
Kyle Monangai run for 5 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 16MISSED FG9 plays · 38 yds · 4:0380% → 86%
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
19.7%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to T.J. Harden for no gain to the UCLA 25Similar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+25
17.7%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Moliki Matavao for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+13
14.9%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Kwazi Gilmer for 13 yds to the RUTG 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 17INT3 plays · 15 yds · 0:5014% → 16%
UCLADrive 18FUMBLE9 plays · 14 yds · 1:4589% → 92%
Q4 4:25
3RD & 4
50
+8
9.8%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 8 yds to the RUTG 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:34
3RD & 5
OPP 37
-5
8.3%
Ethan Garbers sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the RUTG 42 Ethan Garbers fumbled, recovered by RUTG Kyonte Hamilton , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 19TD11 plays · 58 yds · 2:046% → 36%
Q4 3:04
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+7
4.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Christian Dremel for 7 yds to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
5.0%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Christian Dremel for 11 yds to the UCLA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+7
5.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ben Black for 7 yds to the UCLA 25Similar
Q4 1:56
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+13
5.6%
UCLA Penalty, Personal Foul (Ramon Henderson) to the UCLA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+10
6.6%
KALIAKMANIS, Athan pass to the left incomplete intended for LONG, Chris thrown to the UCLA0, clock 01:47. PENALTY UCLA Pass Interference on DAVIES, Jaylin enforced 10 yards to the UCLA2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
7.5%
(01:36) KALIAKMANIS, Athan pass short to the left incomplete intended for DUFF, KJ thrown to the UCLA0, clock 01:29. PENALTY UCLA Pass Interference on DAVIES, Jaylin enforced half the distance from the goal, 1 yards to the UCLA1 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 20END OF GAME4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
5.4%
[NHSG] Kneel down by GARBERS, Ethan at RU47 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 47
-2
5.6%
[NHSG] Kneel down by GARBERS, Ethan at RU49 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 14
OPP 49
-2
6.5%
[NHSG] Kneel down by GARBERS, Ethan at UCLA49 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:23
Kyle Monangai run for 1 yd for a TD (Jai Patel KICK)
+28.4
TD · Q3 4:53
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Keegan Jones for 67 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)
-18.5
TD · Q4 12:13
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Jalen Berger for 9 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)
-13.7