2024 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2024 · Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium
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Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadWIS aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreWIS score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:08 · Atticus Bertrams punt for 42 yds, downed at the NU 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 14:31: Braedyn Locke run for 8 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK) — WIS win probability +4.1 pts (now 77%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:39: Cade Yacamelli run for 3 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK) — WIS win probability +12.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 0:34: (00:34) Kneel down by LAUSCH, Jack at NU24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:29. — NU win probability +4.7 pts (now 18%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 5:32: Joseph Himon II run for 3 yds to the WIS 41 — NU win probability +4.3 pts (now 22%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:11: Braedyn Locke pass complete to Tucker Ashcraft for 3 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK) — WIS win probability +9.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 6 of 12WIS made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 12:50NU 4th & 4 at NU 48, tiedClose callPunted · 28.9% before the snapGo for it28.9%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 11:05WIS 4th & 5 at WIS 36, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 70.2% before the snapGo for it70.2%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.2%average punt
- Q1 8:57NU 4th & 10 at NU 35, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snapGo for it30.2%−0.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.4%average punt
- Q1 6:05NU 4th & 8 at NU 44, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 31.8% before the snapGo for it31.7%−0.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.9%average punt
- Q1 4:41WIS 4th & 9 at WIS 8, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 66.6% before the snapGo for it66.4%−0.329% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.7%average punt
- Q1 3:03NU 4th & 2 at WIS 34, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 33.9% before the snapGo for it33.9%57% to convertField goalTheir call33.4%−0.547% to makePunt33.2%−0.7average punt
- Q2 8:14NU 4th & 2 at WIS 10, down 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 30.2% before the snapGo for it30.3%55% to convertField goalTheir call29.1%−1.188% to makePunt23.7%−6.5average punt
- Q2 5:36WIS 4th & 10 at NU 23, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.0% before the snapGo for it70.8%−0.728% to convertField goalTheir call71.5%70% to makePunt67.2%−4.3average punt
- Q2 4:42NU 4th & 3 at NU 30, down 7Close callPunted · 28.5% before the snapGo for it28.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.2%−0.5average punt
- Q2 1:08WIS 4th & 1 at NU 43, up 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 74.1% before the snapGo for it74.3%70% to convertField goal72.7%−1.628% to makePuntTheir call72.7%−1.6average punt
- Q3 14:14WIS 4th & 5 at WIS 30, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.7% before the snapGo for it80.7%−0.541% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.1%average punt
- Q3 11:51NU 4th & 1 at NU 42, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call19.9%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt18.8%−1.1average punt
- Q3 8:59NU 4th & 3 at WIS 34, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call18.7%53% to convertField goal17.7%−1.047% to makePunt17.2%−1.6average punt
- Q3 6:46NU 4th & 8 at WIS 8, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.2% before the snapGo for it16.3%−0.526% to convertField goalTheir call16.8%90% to makePunt11.4%−5.4average punt
- Q3 4:44NU 4th & 7 at WIS 41, down 11Close callPunted · 20.1% before the snapGo for it20.6%37% to convertField goal19.7%−0.932% to makePuntTheir call20.1%−0.5average punt
- Q4 12:42WIS 4th & 3 at NU 36, up 20Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 96.8% before the snapGo for it97.0%53% to convertField goal96.2%−0.842% to makePuntTheir call96.0%−1.0average punt
- Q4 11:17NU 4th & 3 at NU 12, down 20Close callPunted · 2.6% before the snapGo for it2.7%51% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 6:23WIS 4th & 1 at NU 6, up 20Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.3%69% to convertField goal97.4%−0.991% to makePunt95.1%−3.2average punt
- Q4 4:30NU 4th & 11 at NU 6, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.0%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q2 14:31WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.5%97% to makeGo for two69.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:39WIS Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.4%97% to makeGo for two78.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:11WIS Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.4%97% to makeGo for two91.3%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartNUDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 32 yds · 2:0222% → 23%
WISDrive 2PUNT6 plays · 21 yds · 1:3677% → 76%
NUDrive 3PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 2:0324% → 25%
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
23.9%
Jack Lausch pass complete to Thomas Gordon for 2 yds to the NU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 4INT5 plays · 14 yds · 1:4275% → 75%
Q1 7:01
3RD & 7
OWN 49
-12
25.2%
Braedyn Locke pass intercepted Coco Azema return for 12 yds to the NU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4626% → 26%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1074% → 72%
Q1 4:41
4TH & 9
OWN 8
+23
27.7%
Atticus Bertrams punt for 57 yds , Bryce Kirtz returns for 23 yds to the WIS 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 7MISSED FG4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1928% → 28%
WISDrive 8TD8 plays · 66 yds · 3:2973% → 77%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
27.4%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Tawee Walker for 2 yds to the WIS 36Similar
Q1 2:23
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+5
27.3%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Tawee Walker for 5 yds to the WIS 41Similar
Q1 0:44
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+15
26.9%
Northwestern Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Sean McLaughlin) to the NU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
26.8%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Will Pauling for 8 yds to the NU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 9MISSED FG11 plays · 65 yds · 6:1224% → 26%
Q2 10:23
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+18
27.0%
Jack Lausch pass complete to Thomas Gordon for 18 yds to the WIS 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 10MISSED FG9 plays · 56 yds · 2:3576% → 75%
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+17
24.1%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to C.J. Williams for 17 yds to the WIS 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
22.7%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to C.J. Williams for 11 yds to the WIS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+26
22.4%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Darrion Dupree for 26 yds to the NU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:4225% → 24%
Q2 4:42
4TH & 3
OWN 30
0
24.2%
Luke Akers punt for 46 yds , Hunter Wohler returns for no gain to the WIS 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 12PUNT9 plays · 33 yds · 3:2476% → 77%
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-7
24.2%
Braedyn Locke sacked by Carmine Bastone and Najee Story for a loss of 7 yards to the WIS 17Similar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 17
OWN 17
+12
24.8%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Will Pauling for 12 yds to the WIS 29Similar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+19
24.1%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 19 yds to the WIS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13FUMBLE5 plays · 2 yds · 0:1125% → 26%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 15
OWN 8
-5
25.5%
Jack Lausch sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the NU 3 Jack Lausch fumbled, recovered by WIS Elijah Hills , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 14TD1 play · 3 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 15END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
17.8%
(00:34) Kneel down by LAUSCH, Jack at NU24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:29.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4283% → 83%
Q3 14:14
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+13
17.0%
Atticus Bertrams punt for 50 yds , Bryce Kirtz returns for 13 yds to the NU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 17FG14 plays · 59 yds · 7:1517% → 20%
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
17.6%
Jack Lausch pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 15 yds to the WIS 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 18FUMBLE3 plays · 19 yds · 1:0481% → 83%
NUDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4822% → 19%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 20TD9 plays · 80 yds · 4:2181% → 96%
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+18
17.1%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Trech Kekahuna for 18 yds to the NU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+19
15.7%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Will Pauling for 19 yds to the NU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
3.9%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Tucker Ashcraft for 3 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 21SF2 plays · -18 yds · 0:087% → 3%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-9
7.2%
LAUSCH, Jack pass short to the right complete for 12 yards to PORTER, Cam caught at the NU19 and advanced to the NU30 (THOMAS, Jaheim), out of bounds, clock 00:00. PENALTY NU Holding on LOVELACE, Cooper enforced half the distance from the goal, 9 yards from the NU18 to the NU9 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 19
OWN 9
-9
3.2%
Jack Lausch sacked by Sebastian Cheeks and Curt Neal for a loss of 9 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5797% → 98%
Q4 14:07
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+3
2.6%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Will Pauling for 3 yds to the NU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 23PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:132% → 2%
Q4 11:17
4TH & 3
OWN 12
+15
2.1%
Luke Akers punt for 42 yds , Hunter Wohler returns for 15 yds to the NU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 24DOWNS10 plays · 32 yds · 4:4498% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 25PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 1:391% → 1%
WISDrive 26END OF GAME7 plays · 32 yds · 3:4199% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:39
Cade Yacamelli run for 3 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)
-12.4
TD · Q3 0:11
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Tucker Ashcraft for 3 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)
-9.6
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:34
(00:34) Kneel down by LAUSCH, Jack at NU24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:29.
+4.7