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USC

USC 28 at Maryland 29

MD
2024 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2024 · SECU Stadium
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Win probability · MD
modelMD aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playMD scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:04 · Billy Edwards Jr. pass intercepted, touchback. Billy Edwards Jr. return for no gain
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 120Home team on offense−7.3Pregame prior−5.4Garbage-time factor−4.2Score differential−3.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:21: Woody Marks run for 5 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK) — USC win probability +9.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:32: Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 18 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK) — MD win probability +20.8 pts (now 36%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:31: Miller Moss pass complete to Duce Robinson for 26 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK) — USC win probability +13.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:56: Roman Hemby run for 10 yds for a TD (Billy Edwards Jr. pass to Kaden Prather for Two-Point Conversion) — MD win probability +29.2 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 0:53: Billy Edwards Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK) — MD win probability +55.5 pts (now 83%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MD made the numbers' call on 9 of 10USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 12:16USC 4th & 13 at USC 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:49MD 4th & 3 at MD 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:55USC 4th & 6 at USC 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:37MD 4th & 10 at MD 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:40USC 4th & 2 at MD 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    60.8%−0.5
    56% to make
    Punt
    60.3%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:43MD 4th & 1 at MD 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    32.0%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:03MD 4th & 11 at USC 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.2%
    47% to make
    Punt
    31.0%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:47USC 4th & 16 at USC 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%−1.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:24MD 4th & 12 at MD 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−2.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:50MD 4th & 2 at USC 36, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    20.4%−1.6
    42% to make
    Punt
    20.1%−2.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:03USC 4th & 10 at USC 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%−2.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:04MD 4th & 3 at USC 4, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.9%
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    31.1%−1.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    19.6%−13.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:54MD 4th & 1 at USC 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    10.7%−3.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    10.3%−3.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:29MD 4th & 5 at USC 24, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.4%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    11.0%
    68% to make
    Punt
    5.9%−5.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:45USC 4th & 5 at MD 49, up 6
    Close callPunted · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.9%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:58MD 4th & 7 at USC 49, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.5%−4.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:00USC 4th & 1 at MD 24, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 90.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.3%−2.0
    68% to make
    Punt
    83.8%−7.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:14USC 4th & 2 at MD 40, down 1
    Numbers favored field goal by 10.6 ptsWent for it · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.1%−10.6
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    32.7%
    34% to make
    Punt
    15.5%−17.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MD made the numbers' call on 3 of 4USC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 0:00USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:07MD Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:08USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:21USC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:32MD Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:31USC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:56MD Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    19.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    19.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:53MD Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.9%−7.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:4467% → 66%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
32.7%
Miller Moss pass complete to Lake McRee for 9 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q1 14:43
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
32.8%
Woody Marks run for 6 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
32.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Makai Lemon for 7 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+5
33.1%
Miller Moss pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 5 yds to the MD 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-3
33.3%
Miller Moss pass complete to Woody Marks for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 49Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 13
OWN 49
0
33.7%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:24
3RD & 13
OWN 49
0
33.8%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:16
4TH & 13
OWN 49
0
33.9%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:2034% → 35%
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
33.9%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 7 yds to the MD 15Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 3
OWN 15
+9
34.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Kaden Prather for 9 yds to the MD 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
34.3%
Billy Edwards Jr. sacked by Easton Mascarenas-Arnold for a loss of 5 yards to the MD 19Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 15
OWN 19
0
34.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:29
3RD & 15
OWN 19
+12
34.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Roman Hemby for 12 yds to the MD 31Similar
Q1 9:49
4TH & 3
OWN 31
0
34.7%
Bryce McFerson punt for 58 yds, fair catch by Zachariah Branch at the USC 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 3:4465% → 63%
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-8
34.9%
Miller Moss sacked by Quashon Fuller for a loss of 8 yards to the USC 3Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 18
OWN 3
+9
35.3%
Miller Moss pass complete to Kyle Ford for 9 yds to the USC 12Similar
Q1 8:29
3RD & 9
OWN 12
+17
35.6%
Miller Moss pass complete to Makai Lemon for 17 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
35.4%
Woody Marks run for 5 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 5
OWN 34
-5
35.4%
USC Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USC 29Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+4
35.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Makai Lemon for 4 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q1 6:25
3RD & 6
OWN 33
0
36.1%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:55
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
36.8%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 50 yds, downed at the MD 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:0637% → 37%
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
36.5%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 11 yds to the MD 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
36.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+4
36.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 4 yds to the MD 32Similar
Q1 4:35
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+1
36.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Kaden Prather for 1 yd to the MD 33Similar
Q1 3:42
4TH & 5
OWN 33
-5
36.8%
Maryland Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MD 28Similar
Q1 3:37
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
36.6%
Bryce McFerson punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Zachariah Branch at the USC 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5TD
9 plays · 79 yds · 3:2563% → 69%
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
37.3%
Miller Moss pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 6 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q1 3:06
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+18
37.1%
Miller Moss pass complete to Makai Lemon for 18 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
36.6%
Miller Moss pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 17 yds to the MD 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
36.1%
Quinten Joyner run for 1 yd to the MD 37Similar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+2
36.2%
Miller Moss run for 2 yds to the MD 35Similar
Q1 1:11
3RD & 7
OPP 35
0
36.6%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:46
4TH & 7
OPP 35
+5
37.5%
(00:46) LANTZ, Michael field goal attempt from 52 yards NO GOOD (wide left) [kick was spotted at UMD42], clock 00:40. PENALTY Before the snap, UMD Illegal Substitution on PHILLIPS, Jordan enforced 5 yards from the UMD35 to the UMD30. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:40
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+8
37.5%
Miller Moss pass complete to Lake McRee for 8 yds to the MD 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
31.4%
Miller Moss pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 22 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 6TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5333% → 43%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
33.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Roman Hemby for a loss of 2 yards to the MD 23Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+3
33.1%
Nolan Ray run for 3 yds to the MD 26Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+33
32.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Kaden Prather for 33 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
34.9%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 12 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-10
35.7%
(13:18) EDWARDS JR., Billy pass to the right incomplete intended for HOWARD, Preston broken up by ARNOLD, Akili at the USC14, clock 13:03. PENALTY UMD Holding on BAH, Aliou enforced 10 yards from the USC29 to the USC39 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:03
1ST & 20
OPP 39
+9
34.3%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 9 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 11
OPP 30
+6
35.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 6 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q2 11:52
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+13
35.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Kaden Prather for 13 yds to the USC 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
36.0%
Maryland Penalty, False Start (Aliou Bah) to the USC 16Similar
Q2 11:07
1ST & 15
OPP 16
+16
43.3%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 16 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:5960% → 71%
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
39.7%
Miller Moss pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 23 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
38.2%
Woody Marks run for 11 yds to the MD 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
38.1%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+5
37.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Kyle Ford for 5 yds to the MD 36Similar
Q2 9:17
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+14
38.3%
Miller Moss pass complete to Jay Fair for 14 yds to the MD 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
37.4%
Woody Marks run for 7 yds to the MD 15Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+15
29.5%
Miller Moss pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 15 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 8MISSED FG
16 plays · 41 yds · 5:0532% → 28%
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
32.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Preston Howard for 4 yds to the MD 29Similar
Q2 7:39
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
32.4%
Colby McDonald run for 3 yds to the MD 32Similar
Q2 7:04
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
32.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Preston Howard for 2 yds to the MD 34Similar
Q2 6:43
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
30.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 1 yd to the MD 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
31.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Kaden Prather for 7 yds to the MD 42Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+2
33.4%
Octavian Smith Jr. run for 2 yds to the MD 44Similar
Q2 5:04
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
32.9%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for no gain to the MD 44Similar
Q2 4:33
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+5
31.9%
USC Penalty, Encroachment on PEPE, Kobe enforced (Kobe Pepe) to the MD 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+18
33.5%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 18 yds to the USC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
35.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-1
35.0%
Colby McDonald run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 34Similar
Q2 3:26
3RD & 11
OPP 34
0
33.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:03
4TH & 11
OPP 34
+52
31.4%
Jack Howes 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
28.4%
(03:03) MOSS, Miller pass deep to the right incomplete intended for ROSS, Charles thrown to the UMD31, clock 02:56. PENALTY UMD Pass Interference on THOMAS, Kevis enforced 15 yards to the USC49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0973% → 70%
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
27.3%
Miller Moss run for no gain to the USC 49Similar
Q2 2:29
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-6
26.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Woody Marks for a loss of 6 yards to the USC 43Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 16
OWN 43
0
28.9%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:47
4TH & 16
OWN 43
+17
29.9%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 47 yds , Tai Felton returns for 17 yds to the MD 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:1630% → 30%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
29.9%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-2
29.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the MD 25Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 12
OWN 25
0
30.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:24
4TH & 12
OWN 25
+19
29.9%
Bryce McFerson punt for 50 yds , Zachariah Branch returns for 19 yds to the MD 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11TD
5 plays · 41 yds · 0:4674% → 84%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
26.1%
Miller Moss pass complete to Woody Marks for 2 yds to the MD 39Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+24
25.8%
Miller Moss pass complete to Makai Lemon for 24 yds to the MD 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+10
25.2%
Woody Marks run for 10 yds to the MD 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
15.6%
Woody Marks run for 5 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 12FUMBLE
4 plays · 20 yds · 0:1621% → 23%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
21.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Dylan Wade for 16 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
22.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+17
21.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Kaden Prather for 17 yds to the USC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-13
22.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 13 yards to the USC 40 fumbled, recovered by USC Solomon Tuliaupupu S. Tuliaupupu return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0184% → 84%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
16.0%
Woody Marks run for 4 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
16.4%
[NH] Kneel down by MOSS, Miller at USC43 (team loss of 0), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 14DOWNS
7 plays · 40 yds · 3:1021% → 21%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
21.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Roman Hemby for 19 yds to the MD 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-3
23.0%
Roman Hemby run for a loss of 3 yards to the MD 41Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 13
OWN 41
+15
22.0%
(14:00) EDWARDS JR., Billy pass deep to the right incomplete intended for FELTON, Tai thrown to the USC25, clock 13:50. PENALTY USC Pass Interference on SMITH, Jaylin enforced 15 yards to the USC44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
23.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Dylan Wade for 1 yd to the USC 43Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+3
23.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 3 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q3 12:48
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+4
21.9%
Roman Hemby run for 4 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q3 11:50
4TH & 2
OPP 36
+1
21.4%
Roman Hemby run for 1 yd to the USC 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15INT
6 plays · 24 yds · 2:4681% → 85%
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
18.7%
Miller Moss pass complete to Lake McRee for 6 yds to the USC 41Similar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+2
17.6%
Woody Marks run for 2 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q3 10:46
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+5
17.4%
Miller Moss pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 5 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-4
16.7%
Woody Marks run for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 44Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 14
OWN 44
+15
15.8%
Miller Moss pass complete to Duce Robinson for 15 yds to the MD 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-51
15.0%
Miller Moss pass intercepted Lavain Scruggs return for 51 yds to the USC 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 16TD
1 play · 18 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
35.9%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 18 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2171% → 70%
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-5
29.3%
USC Penalty, False Start (Lake McRee) to the USC 8Similar
Q3 8:24
1ST & 15
OWN 8
-4
29.7%
Woody Marks run for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 4Similar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 19
OWN 4
+9
28.9%
Woody Marks run for 9 yds to the USC 13Similar
Q3 7:15
3RD & 10
OWN 13
0
29.3%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:03
4TH & 10
OWN 13
0
30.2%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 53 yds, downed at the MD 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 18INT
10 plays · 62 yds · 3:4731% → 32%
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
31.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Kaden Prather for 9 yds to the MD 43Similar
Q3 6:27
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+4
33.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 4 yds to the MD 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
33.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 9 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+33
34.7%
Nolan Ray run for 33 yds to the USC 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
36.0%
Maryland Penalty, False Start (Aliou Bah) to the USC 16Similar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 15
OPP 16
0
35.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for no gain to the USC 16Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 15
OPP 16
+4
34.9%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Dylan Wade for 4 yds to the USC 12Similar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 11
OPP 12
+8
34.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 8 yds to the USC 4Similar
Q3 3:04
4TH & 3
OPP 4
0
31.9%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass intercepted, touchback. Billy Edwards Jr. return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 4:2073% → 93%
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
27.2%
Miller Moss pass complete to Woody Marks for 4 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+9
26.5%
Woody Marks run for 9 yds to the USC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
25.9%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+4
26.4%
Quinten Joyner run for 4 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q3 1:10
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+12
25.8%
Miller Moss pass complete to Lake McRee for 12 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
24.0%
Miller Moss pass complete to Makai Lemon for 8 yds to the MD 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 43
0
22.8%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+16
23.1%
Woody Marks run for 16 yds to the MD 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
20.4%
Woody Marks run for 1 yd to the MD 26Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+26
6.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Duce Robinson for 26 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 20TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:3513% → 40%
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
12.9%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 27 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
14.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 5 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 5
OPP 43
0
14.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:27
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+4
14.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Kaden Prather for 4 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q4 11:54
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+10
14.0%
Nolan Ray run for 10 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
15.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+5
14.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Dylan Wade for 5 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 5
OPP 24
0
13.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:29
4TH & 5
OPP 24
+14
11.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Roman Hemby for 14 yds to the USC 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
40.3%
Roman Hemby run for 10 yds for a TD (Billy Edwards Jr. pass to Kaden Prather for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 3:1176% → 81%
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
24.2%
Miller Moss pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 7 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+3
23.0%
Woody Marks run for 3 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
23.3%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
23.6%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:34
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+11
24.4%
Miller Moss pass complete to Duce Robinson for 11 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
21.4%
Miller Moss pass complete to Makai Lemon for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 6
50
+1
18.4%
Quinten Joyner run for 1 yd to the MD 49Similar
Q4 7:04
3RD & 5
OPP 49
0
17.0%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:45
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
19.5%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 46 yds, downed at the MD 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 22DOWNS
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:3928% → 26%
Q4 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+6
27.5%
Nolan Ray run for 6 yds to the MD 9Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 4
OWN 9
+10
26.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Nolan Ray for 10 yds to the MD 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
27.6%
Nolan Ray run for 1 yd to the MD 20Similar
Q4 5:19
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+10
26.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 10 yds to the MD 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+18
27.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Kaden Prather for 18 yds to the MD 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
29.5%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 8
50
+1
30.0%
Nolan Ray run for 1 yd to the USC 49Similar
Q4 3:07
3RD & 7
OPP 49
0
29.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:58
4TH & 7
OPP 49
-18
26.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. sacked by Kamari Ramsey for a loss of 18 yards to the MD 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 23MISSED FG
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:5689% → 93%
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
11.0%
Woody Marks run for 3 yds to the MD 30Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 7
OPP 30
-1
9.1%
Woody Marks run for a loss of 1 yard to the MD 31Similar
Q4 2:08
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+7
9.2%
Miller Moss pass complete to Makai Lemon for 7 yds to the MD 24Similar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+41
7.5%
Michael Lantz 41 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 24TD
6 plays · 47 yds · 0:4122% → 83%
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
21.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Roman Hemby for 4 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+15
21.2%
EDWARDS JR., Billy pass deep to the left incomplete intended for FELTON, Tai thrown to the USC7, clock 01:18. PENALTY USC Pass Interference on HUMPHREY, John enforced 15 yards to the USC28 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
27.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 6 yds to the USC 22Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+14
27.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 14 yds to the USC 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
27.3%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Roman Hemby for 5 yds to the USC 3Similar
Q4 0:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
82.9%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 25DOWNS
9 plays · 35 yds · 0:4132% → 27%
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
67.8%
Miller Moss pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 13 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
64.7%
Miller Moss pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 8 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q4 0:27
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+6
61.3%
Miller Moss pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 6 yds to the MD 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
64.7%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:18
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
66.2%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:14
4TH & 2
OPP 40
0
71.3%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:12
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+8
73.4%
Miller Moss pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 8 yds to the MD 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
91.4%
(00:11) Kneel down by EDWARDS JR., Billy at UMD39 (team loss of 1), clock 00:08.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:53
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)
+55.5
TD · Q4 9:56
Roman Hemby run for 10 yds for a TD (Billy Edwards Jr. pass to Kaden Prather for Two-Point Conversion)
+29.2
TD · Q3 8:32
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 18 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)
+20.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com