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IOWA

Iowa 20 at Michigan State 32

MSU
2024 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2024 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadIOWA aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreIOWA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGFGTDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDEnd of GameFG+35.4MSU 83.7%Jonathan Kim 55 yd FG GOODAWAY 14 - HOME 22 · Q4 11:52
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:52 · Jonathan Kim 55 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialGarbage-time factorTimeout advantage
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 113Pregame prior−4.1Home team on offense+18.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+9.6Score differential+3.2Garbage-time factor+7.2Timeout advantage−2.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:52: Cade McNamara pass complete to Reece Vander Zee for 18 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK) — IOWA win probability +16.1 pts (now 50%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:34: Aidan Chiles pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 18 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK) — MSU win probability +16.0 pts (now 80%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:49: Brendan Sullivan run for 2 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK) — IOWA win probability +21.1 pts (now 47%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. FG · Q4 11:52: Jonathan Kim 55 yd FG GOOD — MSU win probability +35.4 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:22: Kaleb Johnson run for 75 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — IOWA win probability +30.2 pts (now 34%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7IOWA made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
  1. Q1 11:02MSU 4th & 4 at IOWA 23, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.1%−<0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    35.7%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:28IOWA 4th & 7 at IOWA 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.5%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:58MSU 4th & 9 at IOWA 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.1%
    66% to make
    Punt
    37.4%−1.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:09IOWA 4th & 1 at IOWA 36, down 6
    Close callPunted · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.1%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:09IOWA 4th & 5 at MSU 40, down 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.4%−0.7
    34% to make
    Punt
    56.5%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:48MSU 4th & 2 at IOWA 18, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.4%−0.6
    79% to make
    Punt
    43.8%−4.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:33IOWA 4th & 10 at MSU 43, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.0%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    45.4%−0.8
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:28MSU 4th & 7 at IOWA 11, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.5%
    87% to make
    Punt
    52.0%−6.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:43IOWA 4th & 1 at IOWA 26, down 12
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:01MSU 4th & 2 at IOWA 37, up 12
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.7%−2.7
    40% to make
    Punt
    69.0%−2.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:52MSU 4th & 12 at IOWA 37, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%−1.2
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.1%
    40% to make
    Punt
    68.6%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:34MSU 4th & 18 at IOWA 28, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%−2.5
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.4%
    60% to make
    Punt
    81.5%−6.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2IOWA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q3 9:52IOWA Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 4:34MSU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 0:49IOWA Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:22IOWA Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    23.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    23.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:03MSU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1FG
8 plays · 52 yds · 3:5630% → 32%
Q1 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
30.0%
Nate Carter run for 8 yds to the MSU 33Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
30.4%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 8 yds to the MSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+19
30.7%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 19 yds to the IOWA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
31.0%
Nate Carter run for 11 yds to the IOWA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
31.5%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jaron Glover for 2 yds to the IOWA 27Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+4
31.9%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 4 yds to the IOWA 23Similar
Q1 11:10
3RD & 4
OPP 23
0
32.2%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:02
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+42
32.4%
Jonathan Kim 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2968% → 67%
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
32.0%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Kaleb Johnson for 3 yds to the IOWA 40Similar
Q1 10:19
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
32.2%
Kaleb Johnson run for no gain to the IOWA 40Similar
Q1 9:32
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
32.9%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:28
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
33.3%
Rhys Dakin punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3FG
9 plays · 64 yds · 3:2734% → 37%
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+37
33.5%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 37 yds to the MSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
34.2%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+6
34.1%
Nate Carter run for 6 yds to the IOWA 46Similar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+5
34.9%
Nate Carter run for 5 yds to the IOWA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
35.1%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 15 yds to the IOWA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
35.6%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 1 yd to the IOWA 25Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 9
OPP 25
0
35.9%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:08
3RD & 9
OPP 25
0
35.7%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:58
4TH & 9
OPP 25
+43
36.9%
Jonathan Kim 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4264% → 63%
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
36.2%
Kaleb Johnson run for no gain to the IOWA 27Similar
Q1 5:17
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+8
36.8%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Luke Lachey for 8 yds to the IOWA 35Similar
Q1 4:54
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+1
36.7%
Kaleb Johnson run for 1 yd to the IOWA 36Similar
Q1 4:09
4TH & 1
OWN 36
0
37.3%
Rhys Dakin punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Montorie Foster Jr. at the MSU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5INT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:5039% → 41%
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
39.4%
Aidan Chiles run for 5 yds to the MSU 22Similar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+4
39.4%
Makhi Frazier run for 4 yds to the MSU 26Similar
Q1 2:47
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+2
39.6%
Aidan Chiles run for 2 yds to the MSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-12
40.5%
Michigan State Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Aidan Chiles) to the MSU 16Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 22
OWN 16
+10
40.3%
Aidan Chiles run for 10 yds to the MSU 26Similar
Q1 1:13
3RD & 12
OWN 26
0
40.6%
Aidan Chiles pass intercepted Koen Entringer return for no gain to the MSU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 6MISSED FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5662% → 60%
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
38.3%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:57
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+5
38.5%
Kaleb Johnson run for 5 yds to the MSU 40Similar
Q1 0:13
3RD & 5
OPP 40
0
39.0%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:09
4TH & 5
OPP 40
+58
39.7%
Drew Stevens 58 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7FG
8 plays · 42 yds · 3:1642% → 55%
Q1 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
42.2%
Brandon Tullis run for 6 yds to the MSU 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+5
42.4%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 5 yds to the IOWA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+23
43.1%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 23 yds to the IOWA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
44.2%
Aidan Chiles run for 7 yds to the IOWA 19Similar
Q2 13:21
2ND & 3
OPP 19
-5
44.6%
Michigan State Penalty, False Start (Jack Velling) to the IOWA 24Similar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+5
44.9%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 5 yds to the IOWA 19Similar
Q2 12:27
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+1
44.8%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 1 yd to the IOWA 18Similar
Q2 11:48
4TH & 2
OPP 18
+36
54.7%
Jonathan Kim 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 3:1551% → 47%
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
48.9%
Kamari Moulton run for 1 yd to the IOWA 26Similar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+19
49.7%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Kaleb Johnson for 19 yds to the IOWA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
49.1%
Kamari Moulton run for 4 yds to the IOWA 49Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+8
49.3%
Kamari Moulton run for 8 yds to the MSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
49.9%
Kaleb Johnson run for no gain to the MSU 43Similar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
50.9%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
51.5%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:33
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
53.0%
Rhys Dakin punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9FG
11 plays · 69 yds · 5:5862% → 68%
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+19
61.5%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 19 yds to the MSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
64.5%
Brandon Tullis run for 3 yds to the MSU 42Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+3
65.4%
Nate Carter run for 3 yds to the MSU 45Similar
Q2 6:31
3RD & 4
OWN 45
0
65.4%
(06:31) CHILES, Aidan pass deep to the left incomplete intended for MARSH, Nick thrown to the IOWA30, clock 06:26. PENALTY IOWA Holding on HALL, TJ declined IOWA Pass Interference on HALL, TJ enforced 15 yards to the IOWA40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
67.1%
Aziah Johnson run for 15 yds to the IOWA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
67.4%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams for 11 yds to the IOWA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
66.6%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 4 yds to the IOWA 10Similar
Q2 4:13
2ND & 6
OPP 10
-4
64.4%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for a loss of 4 yards to the IOWA 14Similar
Q2 3:24
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+8
64.6%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 8 yds to the IOWA 6Similar
Q2 2:43
4TH & 2
OPP 6
-5
62.1%
Michigan State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the IOWA 11Similar
Q2 2:28
4TH & 7
OPP 11
+29
67.7%
Jonathan Kim 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:3534% → 29%
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
66.5%
Kaleb Johnson run for 9 yds to the IOWA 26Similar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 1
OWN 26
0
66.2%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 1
OWN 26
0
68.4%
Kaleb Johnson run for no gain to the IOWA 26Similar
Q2 1:43
4TH & 1
OWN 26
0
71.5%
Rhys Dakin punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Montorie Foster Jr. at the MSU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11MISSED FG
9 plays · 34 yds · 1:3772% → 69%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
71.7%
Aidan Chiles run for 8 yds to the MSU 37Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+3
72.7%
Nate Carter run for 3 yds to the MSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
73.6%
(00:52) CHILES, Aidan pass deep to the left incomplete intended for GLOVER, Jaron thrown to the IOWA37, clock 00:45. PENALTY IOWA Pass Interference on NESTOR, John enforced 15 yards to the IOWA45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
74.4%
Aidan Chiles run for 1 yd to the IOWA 44Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 9
OPP 44
0
74.2%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+7
73.4%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 7 yds to the IOWA 37Similar
Q2 0:01
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+55
69.0%
Jonathan Kim 55 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 12TD
8 plays · 58 yds · 5:0036% → 50%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
64.2%
Kaden Wetjen run for 9 yds to the MSU 49Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+6
63.4%
Kaleb Johnson run for 6 yds to the MSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-4
64.4%
Kaleb Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the MSU 47Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 14
OPP 47
+10
66.7%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Zach Ortwerth for 10 yds to the MSU 37Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+17
66.3%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Reece Vander Zee for 17 yds to the MSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
65.2%
Jacob Gill run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 21Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 11
OPP 21
+3
66.3%
Kaleb Johnson run for 3 yds to the MSU 18Similar
Q3 9:52
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+18
50.2%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Reece Vander Zee for 18 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 5:1857% → 80%
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
57.3%
Nate Carter run for 4 yds to the MSU 29Similar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
58.0%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 7 yds to the MSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
59.5%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jaron Glover for 6 yds to the MSU 42Similar
Q3 8:06
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+2
61.8%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 2 yds to the MSU 44Similar
Q3 7:27
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+26
61.1%
Aidan Chiles run for 26 yds to the IOWA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
64.2%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams for 5 yds to the IOWA 25Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+4
64.9%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 4 yds to the IOWA 21Similar
Q3 5:24
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+3
64.0%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 3 yds to the IOWA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
80.0%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 18 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 14TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 3:3924% → 47%
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
75.8%
Kaleb Johnson run for 1 yd to the IOWA 32Similar
Q3 3:49
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+15
76.7%
Michigan State Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (D'Quan Douse) to the MSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
72.1%
Jaziun Patterson run for 4 yds to the MSU 21Similar
Q3 2:48
2ND & 6
OPP 21
0
72.7%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:45
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+12
74.0%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Reece Vander Zee for 12 yds to the MSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
73.3%
Kaleb Johnson run for 5 yds to the MSU 4Similar
Q3 1:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
73.7%
Jaziun Patterson run for 2 yds to the MSU 2Similar
Q3 0:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
52.6%
Brendan Sullivan run for 2 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15FG
9 plays · 38 yds · 3:5543% → 84%
Q3 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
43.3%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 22 yds to the MSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
47.5%
Aidan Chiles run for 8 yds to the IOWA 45Similar
Q4 14:23
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+10
48.2%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 10 yds to the IOWA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
50.2%
Michigan State Penalty, False Start (Brennan Parachek) to the IOWA 40Similar
Q4 13:34
1ST & 15
OPP 40
-7
48.6%
Aidan Chiles sacked by Deontae Craig for a loss of 7 yards to the IOWA 47Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 22
OPP 47
0
47.9%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:41
3RD & 22
OPP 47
+10
48.3%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 10 yds to the IOWA 37Similar
Q4 11:52
4TH & 12
OPP 37
+55
83.7%
Jonathan Kim 55 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 16INT
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:5023% → 19%
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-3
77.5%
Kaleb Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the IOWA 25Similar
Q4 11:02
2ND & 13
OWN 25
-21
81.1%
Cade McNamara pass intercepted Nikai Martinez return for 21 yds to the IOWA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17FG
7 plays · 2 yds · 3:1890% → 97%
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
90.3%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 3 yds to the IOWA 27Similar
Q4 10:07
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+7
90.8%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 7 yds to the IOWA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
91.4%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+3
91.8%
Aidan Chiles run for 3 yds to the IOWA 17Similar
Q4 8:41
3RD & 7
OPP 17
-15
93.9%
(08:41) CHILES, Aidan pass short to the right complete for 16 yards to JOHNSON, Aziah caught at the IOWA14 and advanced to the IOWA1 (NESTOR, John), clock 08:35. PENALTY MSU Pass Interference on GLOVER, Jaron enforced 15 yards to the IOWA32 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:14
3RD & 22
OPP 32
+4
94.4%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 4 yds to the IOWA 28Similar
Q4 7:34
4TH & 18
OPP 28
+46
96.6%
Jonathan Kim 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 18TD
1 play · 75 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
66.4%
Kaleb Johnson run for 75 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:1960% → 99%
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
59.7%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 18 yds to the MSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
64.1%
(06:43) CARTER, Nate rush to the left for a gain of 5 yards to the MSU48 (BLACK, Yahya), clock 06:36. PENALTY MSU Holding on RAMIL, Stanton enforced 10 yards from the MSU43 to the MSU33. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 20
OWN 33
+1
61.6%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams for 1 yd to the MSU 34Similar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 19
OWN 34
+24
62.8%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 24 yds to the IOWA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
69.4%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 15 yds to the IOWA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
65.8%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for no gain to the IOWA 27Similar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+7
74.9%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 7 yds to the IOWA 20Similar
Q4 2:57
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+8
78.5%
Nate Carter run for 8 yds to the IOWA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+11
87.9%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 11 yds to the IOWA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.3%
Nate Carter run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 20Uncategorized
11 plays · 41 yds · 1:112% → 2%
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+16
97.9%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Kaleb Johnson for 16 yds to the IOWA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
97.8%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Kaleb Johnson for 11 yds to the MSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
97.8%
Cade McNamara run for 6 yds to the MSU 43Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 4
OPP 43
0
97.5%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:13
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+8
97.7%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Dayton Howard for 8 yds to the MSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
97.4%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
97.4%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
97.6%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:47
4TH & 10
OPP 35
0
97.8%
(00:47) MCNAMARA, Cade pass deep to the right complete for 31 yards to GILL, Jacob caught at the MSU4 and advanced to the MSU4, End of Play, clock 00:40. PENALTY IOWA Illegal Touch-Pass on GILL, Jacob enforced 0 yards from the MSU35 to the MSU35, penalty results in a loss of down [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
99.1%
(00:37) Kneel down by TEAM at MSU33 (team loss of 2), clock 00:32.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 11:52
Jonathan Kim 55 yd FG GOOD
+35.4
TD · Q4 7:22
Kaleb Johnson run for 75 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-30.2
TD · Q3 0:49
Brendan Sullivan run for 2 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)
-21.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com