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Win probability · IU
modelIU aheadNEB aheadconfidence bandkey playIU scoreNEB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:02 · Dante Dowdell run for no gain to the IU 12 Dante Dowdell fumbled, recovered by IU Jacob Mangum-Farrar J. Mangum-Farrar return for 0 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 13:37: Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Myles Price for 7 yds for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK) — IU win probability +6.5 pts (now 79%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:40: Jacory Barney Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD (John Hohl KICK) — NEB win probability +6.9 pts (now 31%) (top driver: Defense has -2 timeouts left).
- TD · Q2 3:47: Ty Son Lawton run for 1 yd for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK) — IU win probability +6.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:09: Justice Ellison run for 31 yds for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK) — IU win probability +7.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:25: Tayven Jackson pass complete to Miles Cross for 2 yds for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK) — IU win probability +3.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
IU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3NEB made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
- Q1 10:15IU 4th & 1 at NEB 14, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call67.8%71% to convertField goal67.6%−0.284% to makePunt67.0%−0.8average punt
- Q1 7:53NEB 4th & 9 at NEB 13, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.0% before the snapGo for it29.9%−0.230% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.1%average punt
- Q1 5:49IU 4th & 2 at NEB 26, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call70.2%57% to convertField goal70.0%−0.364% to makePunt68.6%−1.6average punt
- Q1 1:02NEB 4th & 1 at IU 12, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call30.3%71% to convertField goal29.3%−0.986% to makePunt26.5%−3.7average punt
- Q2 2:34NEB 4th & 7 at NEB 28, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.6% before the snapGo for it18.1%−0.336% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.4%average punt
- Q2 0:27NEB 4th & 4 at NEB 41, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snapGo for it8.3%−0.248% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.5%average punt
- Q3 7:47NEB 4th & 8 at IU 13, down 21Close callWent for it · 5.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.4%−0.430% to convertField goal4.8%85% to makePunt1.4%−3.4average punt
- Q4 15:00NEB 4th & 7 at NEB 43, down 35Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.3%average punt
- Q4 10:34NEB 4th & 6 at IU 6, down 42Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.131% to convertField goal0.1%91% to makePunt-0.2%−0.3average punt
- Q4 6:21IU 4th & 3 at NEB 47, up 42Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−0.1average punt
- Q4 1:38NEB 4th & 16 at NEB 40, down 49Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.116% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8NEB made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 9:35IU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.9%97% to makeGo for two68.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:37IU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.2%97% to makeGo for two76.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:40NEB Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call27.2%97% to makeGo for two27.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:47IU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.1%97% to makeGo for two81.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:09IU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.3%97% to makeGo for two93.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:25IU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:46IU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:01IU Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:45IU Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartIUDrive 1TD9 plays · 75 yds · 5:2363% → 65%
Q1 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
63.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Justice Ellison for 6 yds to the IU 31Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
63.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Zach Horton for 3 yds to the IU 34Similar
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-10
63.3%
(12:49) LAWTON, Ty Son rush to the left for no gain to the NEB23 (SINGLETON, DeShon), clock 12:44. PENALTY IND Holding on EVANS, Drew enforced 10 yards from the NEB23 to the NEB33 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 12:22
1ST & 20
OPP 33
+10
63.2%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 10 yds to the NEB 23Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-1
63.4%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the NEB 24Similar
Q1 11:02
3RD & 11
OPP 24
+10
63.2%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Justice Ellison for 10 yds to the NEB 14Similar
Q1 10:15
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+9
63.1%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 9 yds to the NEB 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 2PUNT9 plays · 12 yds · 1:3735% → 34%
Q1 8:59
3RD & 8
OWN 3
+9
65.4%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Thomas Fidone II for 9 yds to the NEB 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
65.1%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Thomas Fidone II for 1 yd to the NEB 13Similar
Q1 7:53
4TH & 9
OWN 13
+20
65.7%
Brian Buschini punt for 52 yds , Myles Price returns for 20 yds to the NEB 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 3DOWNS7 plays · 10 yds · 1:5568% → 66%
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
68.2%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 11 yds to the NEB 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 13
OPP 37
+11
68.8%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 11 yds to the NEB 26Similar
Q1 5:49
4TH & 2
OPP 26
-9
69.1%
Kurtis Rourke sacked by Mikai Gbayor for a loss of 9 yards to the NEB 35Similar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
65.6%
(05:42) RAIOLA, Dylan pass deep to the right incomplete intended for NEYOR, Isaiah thrown to the IND30, clock 05:38. PENALTY IND Pass Interference on JOHNSON, Jamier enforced 15 yards to the NEB50 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 4DOWNS11 plays · 53 yds · 4:3635% → 34%
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
50
+5
64.9%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Thomas Fidone II for 5 yds to the IU 45Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+4
65.0%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Dante Dowdell for 4 yds to the IU 41Similar
Q1 3:36
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+10
64.9%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jaylen Lloyd for 10 yds to the IU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:02
4TH & 1
OPP 12
0
66.4%
Dante Dowdell run for no gain to the IU 12 Dante Dowdell fumbled, recovered by IU Jacob Mangum-Farrar J. Mangum-Farrar return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 5TD6 plays · 88 yds · 2:1970% → 79%
Q2 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
70.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 28 yds to the NEB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+36
72.2%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 36 yds to the NEB 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
78.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Myles Price for 7 yds for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 6TD14 plays · 75 yds · 5:5725% → 31%
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
74.8%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jacory Barney Jr. for 6 yds to the NEB 31Similar
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
75.2%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jaylen Lloyd for 9 yds to the NEB 44Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 21
OWN 35
+25
77.0%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Thomas Fidone II for 25 yds to the IU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+19
75.6%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 19 yds to the IU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 17
OPP 28
+11
76.6%
(09:31) RAIOLA, Dylan pass to the left incomplete intended for BANKS, Jahmal thrown to the IND17, clock 09:29. PENALTY IND Pass Interference on PONDS, D'Angelo enforced at the spot of the foul for 11 yards to the IND17 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
75.3%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jacory Barney Jr. for 6 yds to the IU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 7TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5074% → 82%
Q2 6:39
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+22
74.7%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 22 yds to the NEB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
76.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to E.J. Williams Jr. for 12 yds to the NEB 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
76.4%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Zach Horton for 3 yds to the NEB 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1118% → 17%
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.2%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jacory Barney Jr. for no gain to the NEB 25Similar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
82.6%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Emmett Johnson for 3 yds to the NEB 28Similar
Q2 2:34
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
83.5%
Brian Buschini punt for 46 yds , Myles Price returns for no gain to the IU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 9TD5 plays · 74 yds · 1:1586% → 94%
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
86.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Myles Price for 8 yds to the NEB 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:428% → 8%
Q2 0:59
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
91.9%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Rahmir Johnson for 6 yds to the NEB 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 11INT6 plays · 14 yds · 0:2194% → 93%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
93.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Myles Price for 8 yds to the IU 42Similar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+6
93.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 6 yds to the IU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-26
93.4%
Kurtis Rourke pass intercepted Malcolm Hartzog Jr. return for 26 yds to the NEB 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 12DOWNS15 plays · -8 yds · 7:069% → 5%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
91.1%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Isaiah Neyor for 1 yd to the NEB 28Similar
Q3 13:49
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+2
91.3%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Emmett Johnson for 2 yds to the NEB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
91.7%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jacory Barney Jr. for 5 yds to the NEB 42Similar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+23
92.8%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Thomas Fidone II for 23 yds to the IU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:09
2ND & 12
OPP 32
+6
92.9%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jacory Barney Jr. for 6 yds to the IU 26Similar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
93.3%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jacory Barney Jr. for 1 yd to the IU 14Similar
Q3 7:47
4TH & 8
OPP 13
-78
94.6%
Dylan Raiola pass intercepted Shawn Asbury II return for 78 yds to the NEB 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 13TD4 plays · 19 yds · 1:0995% → 99%
NEBDrive 14INT8 plays · 27 yds · 3:121% → 1%
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
99.2%
Dylan Raiola sacked by Terry Jones Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the NEB 14Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 12
OWN 14
+9
99.3%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Rahmir Johnson for 9 yds to the NEB 23Similar
Q3 4:43
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+14
99.4%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 14 yds to the NEB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
99.4%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Rahmir Johnson for 4 yds to the NEB 41Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+2
99.4%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jacory Barney Jr. for 2 yds to the NEB 43Similar
Q3 3:06
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
99.5%
Dylan Raiola pass intercepted Dylan Raiola return for no gain to the IU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 15TD4 plays · 51 yds · 1:14100% → 100%
NEBDrive 16DOWNS9 plays · 22 yds · 1:420% → 0%
Q3 1:06
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+17
99.8%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jaylen Lloyd for 17 yds to the NEB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+6
99.8%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Jacory Barney Jr. for 6 yds to the NEB 46Similar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
99.8%
Nebraska Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Nash Hutmacher) to the NEB 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 17TD4 plays · 43 yds · 1:53100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 18DOWNS8 plays · 40 yds · 2:190% → 0%
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
99.9%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Isaiah Neyor for 12 yds to the IU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+28
99.9%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Thomas Fidone II for 28 yds to the IU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
-9
99.9%
Dylan Raiola sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the IU 15 Dylan Raiola fumbled, recovered by IU Mikail Kamara , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 19PUNT9 plays · 38 yds · 4:10100% → 100%
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
99.9%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Andison Coby for 8 yds to the IU 35Similar
Q4 8:29
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+11
99.9%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Zach Horton for 11 yds to the IU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:21
4TH & 3
OPP 47
+5
99.9%
James Evans punt for 32 yds , Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda returns for 5 yds to the NEB 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 20INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-6
100.0%
Dylan Raiola pass intercepted Rolijah Hardy return for 6 yds to the NEB 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 21TD5 plays · 19 yds · 2:26100% → 100%
NEBDrive 22DOWNS7 plays · 7 yds · 2:020% → 0%
Q4 2:00
3RD & 6
50
-10
100.0%
(02:00) IVES, Kwinten rush to the right for a gain of 6 yards to the IND44 (BONDS, Bryson;JOHNSON, JoJo), clock 01:54. PENALTY NEB Illegal Block in the Back on NELSON, Carter enforced 10 yards from the NEB50 to the NEB40 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 23END OF GAME3 plays · -9 yds · 0:57100% → 100%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
100.0%
(01:30) [SG] Kneel down by JACKSON, Tayven at NEB42 (team loss of 2), clock 01:22.Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 12
OPP 42
-4
100.0%
(00:48) Kneel down by JACKSON, Tayven at NEB46 (team loss of 4), clock 00:43.Similar
Q4 0:33
3RD & 16
OPP 46
-3
100.0%
(00:33) Kneel down by JACKSON, Tayven at NEB49 (team loss of 3), clock 00:12.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:09
Justice Ellison run for 31 yds for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK)
+7
TD · Q2 7:40
Jacory Barney Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD (John Hohl KICK)
-6.9
TD · Q2 13:37
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Myles Price for 7 yds for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK)
+6.5