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MICH

Michigan 7 at Illinois 21

ILL
2024 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2024 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadMICH aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreMICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:33 · Josh McCray run for 2 yds to the MICH 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 41Home team on offense+1.8Pregame prior−11.4Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:53: Luke Altmyer pass complete to Tanner Arkin for 2 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK) — ILL win probability +10.0 pts (now 66%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:40: Kalel Mullings run for 1 yd for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK) — MICH win probability +10.0 pts (now 47%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:16: Luke Altmyer 1 Yd Run (Donovan Leary Pass to Zakhari Franklin for Two-Point Conversion) — ILL win probability +16.8 pts (now 81%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 0:00: Josh McCray run for 1 yd to the ILL 21 — ILL win probability +5.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 7:58: PENALTY ILL False Start (Davis,J.C.) 5 yards from ILL22 to ILL17. NO PLAY. — ILL win probability +5.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 8 of 10MICH made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 12:07ILL 4th & 3 at MICH 29, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.6%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    37.3%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:06MICH 4th & 8 at MICH 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.4%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:58ILL 4th & 9 at ILL 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:14MICH 4th & 3 at MICH 44, down 3
    Close callPunted · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.9%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:33ILL 4th & 1 at MICH 20, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    42.5%−0.9
    75% to make
    Punt
    39.8%−3.6
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:33ILL 4th & 1 at MICH 20, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    42.5%−0.9
    75% to make
    Punt
    39.8%−3.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:35ILL 4th & 12 at MICH 14, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%−1.0
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.1%
    84% to make
    Punt
    40.1%−4.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:40MICH 4th & 1 at ILL 1, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    30.7%−2.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    25.0%−8.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:03MICH 4th & 16 at MICH 19, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%−2.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:59ILL 4th & 7 at ILL 48, up 6
    Close callWent for it · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.9%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    60.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:27MICH 4th & 10 at ILL 10, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%−1.5
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.8%
    88% to make
    Punt
    5.1%−8.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:22ILL 4th & 6 at ILL 37, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.1%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:34MICH 4th & 18 at ILL 44, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.6%−0.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    7.1%−0.2
    27% to make
    Punt
    7.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:39ILL 4th & 17 at ILL 15, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%−1.8
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:39ILL 4th & 18 at ILL 14, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%−1.9
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:01MICH 4th & 1 at ILL 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    4.3%−1.0
    47% to make
    Punt
    3.3%−2.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:14MICH 4th & 17 at ILL 39, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.3%−0.4
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    3.7%
    36% to make
    Punt
    3.2%−0.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:02ILL 4th & 13 at ILL 48, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 1 of 2MICH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 7:53ILL Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:40MICH Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:16ILL Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    75.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    75.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1FG
9 plays · 46 yds · 2:4235% → 37%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
35.3%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Collin Dixon for 9 yds to the ILL 34Similar
Q1 14:36
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+1
35.5%
Aidan Laughery run for 1 yd to the ILL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+29
35.7%
Aidan Laughery run for 29 yds to the MICH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
36.0%
PENALTY MICH Offside (Paige,Makari) 5 yards from MICH36 to MICH31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 5
OPP 31
-1
36.3%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for a loss of 1 yard to the MICH 32Similar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+3
36.5%
Luke Altmyer run for 3 yds to the MICH 29Similar
Q1 12:12
3RD & 3
OPP 29
0
36.7%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:07
4TH & 3
OPP 29
+47
36.8%
David Olano 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5563% → 63%
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
36.8%
Jack Tuttle pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
36.9%
Donovan Edwards run for 2 yds to the MICH 27Similar
Q1 11:13
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
37.3%
Jack Tuttle pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:06
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
37.5%
Tommy Doman punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Hank Beatty at the ILL 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0337% → 38%
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
37.4%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-10
37.4%
(11:00) No Huddle-Shotgun Altmyer,Luke pass complete short left to Beatty,Hank caught at MICH42, for 18 yards to the MICH42 (Hill,Jyaire), out of bounds PENALTY ILL Holding (Priestly,Melvin) 10 yards from ILL40 to ILL30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:41
2ND & 20
OWN 30
+11
37.3%
Aidan Laughery run for 11 yds to the ILL 41Similar
Q1 10:05
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
37.7%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:58
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
37.5%
Hugh Robertson punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Semaj Morgan at the MICH 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 4:3862% → 60%
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
37.9%
Kalel Mullings run for 4 yds to the MICH 15Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+11
38.3%
Kalel Mullings run for 11 yds to the MICH 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
38.4%
Donovan Edwards run for 5 yds to the MICH 31Similar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+3
38.7%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 3 yds to the MICH 34Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+3
39.3%
Kalel Mullings run for 3 yds to the MICH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
39.6%
Jack Tuttle pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:31
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
39.8%
Jack Tuttle run for 4 yds to the MICH 41Similar
Q1 5:47
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+3
39.8%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 3 yds to the MICH 44Similar
Q1 5:14
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
40.5%
Tommy Doman punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ILL 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5DOWNS
12 plays · 51 yds · 4:2941% → 43%
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
40.6%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 12 yds to the ILL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
41.3%
Aidan Laughery run for 6 yds to the ILL 45Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+15
42.2%
(03:49) No Huddle-Shotgun Altmyer,Luke sacked for loss of 5 yards to the ILL40 (Barham,Jaishawn) PENALTY MICH Personal Foul (Pierce,Trey) 15 yards from ILL45 to MICH40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
42.7%
Luke Altmyer run for 5 yds to the MICH 35Similar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+1
43.5%
Pat Bryant run for 1 yd to the MICH 36Similar
Q1 2:05
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+7
43.0%
(02:09) No Huddle-Shotgun Altmyer,Luke pass incomplete short left to Franklin,Zakhari thrown to MICH27, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MICH Pass Interference (Hall,Aamir) 7 yards from MICH36 to MICH29, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
43.6%
(02:02) PENALTY ILL False Start (Davis,J.C.) 5 yards from MICH29 to MICH34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:59
1ST & 15
OPP 34
+1
43.3%
Josh McCray run for 1 yd to the MICH 33Similar
Q1 1:23
2ND & 14
OPP 33
0
43.2%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:11
3RD & 14
OPP 33
+13
42.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 13 yds to the MICH 20Similar
Q1 0:33
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+2
43.4%
Josh McCray run for 2 yds to the MICH 22Similar
Q1 0:33
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+2
43.4%
Josh McCray run for 2 yds to the MICH 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6FUMBLE
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:4857% → 56%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
43.1%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Marlin Klein for 5 yds to the MICH 27Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+2
42.8%
Donovan Edwards run for 2 yds to the MICH 25Similar
Q2 14:12
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+13
44.0%
Jack Tuttle run for 13 yds to the MICH 38 Jack Tuttle fumbled, recovered by ILL Malachi HoodSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 7FG
6 plays · 24 yds · 2:3045% → 49%
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
45.1%
Josh McCray run for 11 yds to the MICH 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
45.8%
(13:47) No Huddle-Shotgun Altmyer,Luke pass incomplete short left to Franklin,Zakhari thrown to MICH09 PENALTY MICH Pass Interference (Hall,Aamir) 15 yards from MICH27 to MICH12, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
45.9%
Josh McCray run for 4 yds to the MICH 8Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 6
OPP 8
0
46.4%
Josh McCray run for no gain to the MICH 8Similar
Q2 12:12
3RD & 6
OPP 8
-6
46.1%
Luke Altmyer sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the MICH 14Similar
Q2 11:35
4TH & 12
OPP 14
+32
49.1%
David Olano 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8FUMBLE
4 plays · 29 yds · 0:2451% → 51%
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
49.0%
(11:34) No Huddle-Shotgun Tuttle,Jack pass intercepted by Scott,Miles at MICH37 Scott,Miles return 35 yards to the MICH02 (Mullings,Kalel; Morris,Tyler), out of bounds PENALTY ILL Holding (Patterson,Kaleb) 10 yards from MICH25 to MICH35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
48.8%
Jack Tuttle pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+19
49.2%
Donovan Edwards run for 19 yds to the ILL 49 Donovan Edwards fumbled, recovered by ILL Miles ScottSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 9TD
8 plays · 51 yds · 2:5752% → 66%
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
51.7%
Aidan Laughery run for 2 yds to the ILL 47Similar
Q2 10:19
2ND & 12
OWN 47
0
51.3%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:05
3RD & 12
OWN 47
+13
50.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 13 yds to the MICH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+14
53.0%
Luke Altmyer run for 14 yds to the MICH 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
53.6%
Josh McCray run for 4 yds to the MICH 22Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+9
54.2%
Luke Altmyer run for 9 yds to the MICH 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
55.6%
(08:05) Shotgun Altmyer,Luke pass incomplete short middle to Franklin,Zakhari thrown to MICH00, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MICH Pass Interference (Berry,Zeke) 11 yard from MICH13 to MICH02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
65.6%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Tanner Arkin for 2 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10TD
16 plays · 72 yds · 6:0138% → 47%
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
62.1%
Kalel Mullings run for 8 yds to the MICH 36Similar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+7
61.4%
Kalel Mullings run for 7 yds to the MICH 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
63.1%
Kalel Mullings run for 5 yds to the MICH 48Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+5
62.8%
Kalel Mullings run for 5 yds to the ILL 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+16
63.8%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Colston Loveland for 16 yds to the ILL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+10
63.5%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Colston Loveland for 10 yds to the ILL 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
63.7%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 8 yds to the ILL 13Similar
Q2 2:53
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+7
64.7%
Kalel Mullings run for 7 yds to the ILL 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
65.4%
Kalel Mullings run for 4 yds to the ILL 2Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
63.4%
Benjamin Hall run for 1 yd to the ILL 1Similar
Q2 1:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
63.2%
Kalel Mullings run for no gain to the ILL 1Similar
Q2 1:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
53.2%
Kalel Mullings run for 1 yd for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11MISSED FG
11 plays · 49 yds · 1:3456% → 60%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
55.9%
Josh McCray run for 1 yd to the ILL 26Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+11
55.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 11 yds to the ILL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
57.3%
Luke Altmyer run for 17 yds to the MICH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
59.2%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 9 yds to the MICH 37Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 1
OPP 37
0
59.3%
Josh McCray run for no gain to the MICH 37Similar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+6
58.2%
Josh McCray run for 6 yds to the MICH 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
59.9%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+5
59.9%
Luke Altmyer run for 5 yds to the MICH 26Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+44
60.3%
David Olano 44 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Makari Paige (00:03) Olano,David field goal attempt from 44 yards NO GOOD blocked by Paige,Makari (H: Robertson,Hugh, LS: Hansen,Lane), clock 00:00 recovered by ILL Davis,J.C. at MICH05, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:5145% → 41%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
55.5%
Kalel Mullings run for 2 yds to the MICH 27Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
55.7%
Kalel Mullings run for 1 yd to the MICH 28Similar
Q3 13:36
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-9
57.4%
Jack Tuttle sacked by TeRah Edwards for a loss of 9 yards to the MICH 19Similar
Q3 13:03
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
59.1%
Tommy Doman punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Hank Beatty at the ILL 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13TD
8 plays · 55 yds · 3:3962% → 81%
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
62.0%
Aidan Laughery run for 3 yds to the ILL 48Similar
Q3 12:27
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
62.4%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:21
3RD & 7
OWN 48
0
61.0%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:59
4TH & 7
OWN 48
+36
59.2%
Tanner Arkin run for 36 yds to the MICH 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
64.0%
Aidan Laughery run for 4 yds to the MICH 12Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+5
64.5%
Luke Altmyer run for 5 yds to the MICH 7Similar
Q3 9:55
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+6
64.0%
Josh McCray run for 6 yds to the MICH 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
80.7%
Luke Altmyer 1 Yd Run (Donovan Leary Pass to Zakhari Franklin for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14MISSED FG
16 plays · 65 yds · 8:4122% → 15%
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
77.6%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Hogan Hansen for 17 yds to the MICH 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
76.5%
Kalel Mullings run for 5 yds to the MICH 47Similar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+2
76.3%
Semaj Morgan run for 2 yds to the MICH 45Similar
Q3 6:58
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+9
78.1%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Colston Loveland for 9 yds to the ILL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
77.2%
Jack Tuttle pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+4
77.8%
Kalel Mullings run for 4 yds to the ILL 42Similar
Q3 5:35
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+8
78.4%
Kalel Mullings run for 8 yds to the ILL 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
78.3%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Colston Loveland for 8 yds to the ILL 26Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+5
78.1%
Jack Tuttle run for 5 yds to the ILL 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
79.8%
Jack Tuttle run for 3 yds to the ILL 18Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+8
80.0%
Donovan Edwards run for 8 yds to the ILL 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
80.6%
Jack Tuttle run for 2 yds to the ILL 8Similar
Q3 1:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
81.0%
Kalel Mullings run for 2 yds to the ILL 6Similar
Q3 1:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-4
83.2%
Jack Tuttle sacked by TeRah Edwards for a loss of 4 yards to the ILL 10 Jack Tuttle fumbled, recovered by MICH Jack Tuttle , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 0:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
85.3%
Dominic Zvada 28 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Ezekiel HolmesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:3891% → 91%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
90.8%
Josh McCray run for 1 yd to the ILL 21Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+12
90.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 12 yds to the ILL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
91.3%
Josh McCray run for 4 yds to the ILL 37Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 6
OWN 37
0
91.9%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:28
3RD & 6
OWN 37
0
91.7%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:22
4TH & 6
OWN 37
0
91.1%
Hugh Robertson punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Semaj Morgan at the MICH 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16INT
12 plays · 69 yds · 5:1411% → 11%
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
88.6%
Jack Tuttle pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+21
88.8%
Donovan Edwards run for 6 yds to the MICH 22 for a 1ST down Illinois Penalty, Personal Foul (Matthew Bailey) to the MICH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
88.1%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Kalel Mullings for 8 yds to the MICH 45Similar
Q4 12:07
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+8
87.8%
Kalel Mullings run for 8 yds to the ILL 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-9
88.1%
Jack Tuttle sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the MICH 44Similar
Q4 10:33
2ND & 19
OWN 44
+6
90.4%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Colston Loveland for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:07
3RD & 13
50
+14
90.5%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 14 yds to the ILL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-8
89.6%
Jack Tuttle sacked by Gabe Jacas for a loss of 8 yards to the ILL 44Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 18
OPP 44
0
90.3%
Jack Tuttle pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 18
OPP 44
0
91.3%
Jack Tuttle pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:34
4TH & 18
OPP 44
+29
91.7%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Colston Loveland for 29 yds to the ILL 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
89.5%
Jack Tuttle pass intercepted Matthew Bailey return for no gain to the ILL 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 2:1995% → 96%
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
94.8%
PENALTY ILL False Start (Davis,J.C.) 5 yards from ILL22 to ILL17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:53
1ST & 15
OWN 17
+1
94.7%
Aidan Laughery run for 1 yd to the ILL 18Similar
Q4 7:07
2ND & 14
OWN 18
+1
95.1%
Aidan Laughery run for 1 yd to the ILL 19Similar
Q4 6:19
3RD & 13
OWN 19
+5
95.5%
Luke Altmyer run for 5 yds to the ILL 14Similar
Q4 5:39
4TH & 17
OWN 15
+18
95.5%
Hugh Robertson punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ILL 43 , Semaj Morgan returns for 18 yds to the ILL 43Similar
Q4 5:39
4TH & 18
OWN 14
+18
95.5%
Hugh Robertson punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ILL 43 , Semaj Morgan returns for 18 yds to the ILL 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18DOWNS
9 plays · 4 yds · 2:137% → 3%
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
92.7%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Amorion Walker for 4 yds to the ILL 39Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+5
92.3%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Colston Loveland for 5 yds to the ILL 34Similar
Q4 4:51
3RD & 1
OPP 34
0
92.6%
Donovan Edwards run for no gain to the ILL 34Similar
Q4 4:01
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+2
94.5%
Kalel Mullings run for 2 yds to the ILL 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-7
94.1%
Jack Tuttle sacked by Gabe Jacas for a loss of 7 yards to the ILL 39Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 17
OPP 39
0
96.8%
Jack Tuttle pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 17
OPP 39
0
97.1%
Jack Tuttle pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:14
4TH & 17
OPP 39
0
97.1%
Jack Tuttle pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 9 yds · 2:0598% → 99%
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
98.1%
Josh McCray run for 6 yds to the ILL 45Similar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+6
98.1%
Josh McCray run for 6 yds to the MICH 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
98.3%
Josh McCray run for 7 yds to the MICH 42Similar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+3
98.3%
Josh McCray run for 3 yds to the MICH 45Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+2
98.6%
Josh McCray run for 2 yds to the MICH 47Similar
Q4 1:04
4TH & 8
OPP 47
-5
98.7%
PENALTY ILL Delay Of Game 5 yards from MICH47 to ILL48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:02
4TH & 13
OWN 48
0
98.6%
Hugh Robertson punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20END OF GAME
5 plays · 55 yds · 0:581% → 2%
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
98.6%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Hogan Hansen for 8 yds to the MICH 17 Michigan Penalty, Personal Foul (Josh Priebe) to the MICH 9Similar
Q4 0:44
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+8
98.6%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Amorion Walker for 8 yds to the MICH 17Similar
Q4 0:32
3RD & 2
OWN 17
+20
98.6%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Hogan Hansen for 20 yds to the MICH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
98.5%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Hogan Hansen for 5 yds to the MICH 42Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+22
98.5%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Tyler Morris for 22 yds to the ILL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:16
Luke Altmyer 1 Yd Run (Donovan Leary Pass to Zakhari Franklin for Two-Point Conversion)
+16.8
TD · Q2 7:53
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Tanner Arkin for 2 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)
+10
TD · Q2 1:40
Kalel Mullings run for 1 yd for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
-10
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com