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Win probability · RUTG
modelRUTG aheadWIS aheadconfidence bandkey playRUTG scoreWIS score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:11 · Jakob Anderson punt for 31 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 1:39: Tawee Walker run for 2 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK) — WIS win probability +5.1 pts (now 58%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 0:00: [NHSG] Kneel down by LOCKE, Braedyn at WIS36 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00. — WIS win probability +7.7 pts (now 79%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:14: Darrion Dupree run for 2 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK) — WIS win probability +11.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:45: Tawee Walker run for 9 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK) — WIS win probability +2.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:48: Kyle Monangai run for 13 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK) — RUTG win probability +3.4 pts (now 5%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
RUTG made the numbers' call on 9 of 12WIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
- Q1 12:25RUTG 4th & 6 at RUTG 42, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 55.1% before the snapGo for it55.1%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.2%average punt
- Q1 7:36RUTG 4th & 2 at RUTG 33, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.5% before the snapGo for it52.6%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.6%average punt
- Q1 5:04RUTG 4th & 1 at RUTG 31, down 7Close callPunted · 51.6% before the snapGo for it52.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call51.6%−0.3average punt
- Q1 1:39WIS 4th & 1 at RUTG 2, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call50.5%60% to convertField goal49.3%−1.294% to makePunt46.0%−4.5average punt
- Q1 0:24RUTG 4th & 9 at RUTG 26, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.1% before the snapGo for it43.8%−1.030% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.7%average punt
- Q2 11:29WIS 4th & 9 at RUTG 41, up 14Close callPunted · 60.4% before the snapGo for it60.4%32% to convertField goal59.6%−0.832% to makePuntTheir call60.0%−0.3average punt
- Q2 10:23RUTG 4th & 10 at RUTG 2, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.9% before the snapGo for it37.1%−2.025% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.1%average punt
- Q2 7:27WIS 4th & 5 at RUTG 18, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.7% before the snapGo for it63.0%−0.240% to convertField goalTheir call63.3%79% to makePunt57.2%−6.1average punt
- Q2 2:29RUTG 4th & 1 at WIS 10, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call34.7%71% to convertField goal33.0%−1.788% to makePunt29.2%−5.5average punt
- Q2 1:24WIS 4th & 3 at WIS 30, up 14Close callPunted · 68.8% before the snapGo for it68.3%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call68.0%−0.3average punt
- Q2 0:59RUTG 4th & 10 at RUTG 24, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.1% before the snapGo for it28.3%−1.628% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.9%average punt
- Q2 0:16RUTG 4th & 10 at WIS 19, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.7% before the snapGo for it30.5%−1.327% to convertField goalTheir call31.9%77% to makePunt28.2%−3.7average punt
- Q3 12:50WIS 4th & 4 at RUTG 43, up 14Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 73.2% before the snapGo for it73.8%48% to convertField goal71.4%−2.428% to makePuntTheir call72.5%−1.3average punt
- Q3 10:02RUTG 4th & 4 at RUTG 37, down 14Close callPunted · 25.4% before the snapGo for it25.6%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.5%−0.1average punt
- Q3 4:11RUTG 4th & 6 at RUTG 29, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snapGo for it2.4%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.4%average punt
- Q3 2:13WIS 4th & 11 at RUTG 48, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.2% before the snapGo for it97.2%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.3%average punt
- Q4 10:21RUTG 4th & 9 at RUTG 39, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q4 2:10RUTG 4th & 1 at WIS 46, down 35Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.170% to convertField goal0.1%−<0.123% to makePunt0.1%average punt
- Q4 0:30WIS 4th & 6 at midfield, up 35Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RUTG made the numbers' call on 1 of 1WIS made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 9:10WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call46.1%97% to makeGo for two46.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:39WIS Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call53.8%97% to makeGo for two53.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:14WIS Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.3%97% to makeGo for two87.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:45WIS Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.9%97% to makeGo for two97.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:48RUTG Touchdown, down 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call3.7%97% to makeGo for two3.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:11WIS Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:47WIS Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartRUTGDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 2:3352% → 52%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 2TD8 plays · 89 yds · 3:0348% → 51%
Q1 10:39
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+17
52.1%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Will Pauling for 17 yds to the WIS 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+34
51.7%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 34 yds to the RUTG 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+16
49.5%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Will Pauling for 16 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2950% → 50%
WISDrive 4INT3 plays · 12 yds · 0:4751% → 51%
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
49.0%
Braedyn Locke pass intercepted Shaquan Loyal return for no gain to the RUTG 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3849% → 49%
Q1 5:50
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+4
49.0%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Chris Long for 4 yds to the RUTG 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 6TD8 plays · 53 yds · 3:1952% → 58%
RUTGDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:0943% → 42%
Q1 0:24
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
41.8%
Jakob Anderson punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Hunter Wohler at the WIS 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 8PUNT9 plays · 24 yds · 3:4659% → 63%
Q2 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+12
40.6%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Darrion Dupree for 12 yds to the WIS 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
39.6%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Trech Kekahuna for 4 yds to the RUTG 49Similar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+1
39.1%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Riley Nowakowski for 1 yd to the RUTG 48Similar
Q2 13:17
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+6
38.7%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to C.J. Williams for 6 yds to the RUTG 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4738% → 37%
Q2 10:23
4TH & 10
OWN 2
0
36.9%
Jakob Anderson punt for 50 yds , Hunter Wohler returns for no gain to the WIS 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 10MISSED FG9 plays · 34 yds · 2:5064% → 66%
Q2 8:59
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+15
34.2%
LOCKE, Braedyn pass deep to the left incomplete intended for ASHCRAFT, Tucker thrown to the RU18, clock 08:59. PENALTY RU Pass Interference on DIXON, Flip enforced 15 yards to the RU23 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 11DOWNS10 plays · 70 yds · 4:4835% → 32%
WISDrive 12PUNT11 plays · 20 yds · 1:0070% → 73%
RUTGDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1824% → 23%
Q2 0:59
4TH & 10
OWN 24
0
22.8%
Jakob Anderson punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Hunter Wohler at the WIS 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 14FUMBLE2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0174% → 74%
RUTGDrive 15MISSED FG8 plays · 15 yds · 0:2426% → 29%
Q2 0:39
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+6
25.7%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Dymere Miller for 6 yds to the WIS 28Similar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+9
28.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ben Black for 9 yds to the WIS 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
4TH & 10
OPP 19
0
28.5%
Jai Patel 37 yd FG BLOCKED for a 1ST down blocked by for a 1ST down , Ricardo Hallman return for no gain to the RUTG 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 16END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
20.8%
[NHSG] Kneel down by LOCKE, Braedyn at WIS36 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 17PUNT6 plays · 23 yds · 1:5973% → 74%
RUTGDrive 18PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 2:4727% → 24%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 19TD4 plays · 89 yds · 1:3478% → 93%
Q3 8:46
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+47
19.2%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 47 yds to the RUTG 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 20INT2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
WISDrive 21TD6 plays · 31 yds · 3:2192% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 22PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:343% → 2%
WISDrive 23PUNT5 plays · 12 yds · 1:5098% → 97%
RUTGDrive 24TD13 plays · 80 yds · 3:242% → 5%
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
1.6%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Kyle Monangai for 5 yds to the RUTG 25Similar
Q3 1:47
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
1.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Dymere Miller for 4 yds to the RUTG 29Similar
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
1.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Dymere Miller for 6 yds to the RUTG 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 25TD5 plays · 68 yds · 2:3298% → 100%
Q4 13:08
2ND & 6
OWN 36
-10
2.2%
WALKER, Tawee rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the WIS39 (SANDERS, Kaj;WALKER, Moses), clock 13:08. PENALTY WIS Holding on BRUNNER, Joe enforced 10 yards from the WIS36 to the WIS26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:33
2ND & 16
OWN 26
+3
2.2%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Tawee Walker for 3 yds to the WIS 29Similar
Q4 11:50
3RD & 13
OWN 29
+16
2.0%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Trech Kekahuna for 16 yds to the WIS 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 26PUNT6 plays · 14 yds · 0:431% → 0%
WISDrive 27TD10 plays · 80 yds · 5:22100% → 100%
RUTGDrive 28DOWNS5 plays · 29 yds · 2:330% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 29PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:30100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 30END OF GAME1 play · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:14
Darrion Dupree run for 2 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)
-11.7
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:00
[NHSG] Kneel down by LOCKE, Braedyn at WIS36 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.
-7.7
TD · Q1 1:39
Tawee Walker run for 2 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)
-5.1