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PSU

Penn State 33 at USC 30

USC
2024 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2024 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scorePSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTFGTDTDFGFGFGTDTDFGFGTDTDFGEnd of GameFG+0.2USC 37.3%Ryan Barker 34 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 0 · Q1 4:53
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:53 · Ryan Barker 34 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorTime remaining
+21.5+10.80−10.8−21.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 21Pregame prior−13.8Home team on offense−0.9Score differential−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Time remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:52: Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 32 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK) — PSU win probability +15.2 pts (now 46%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:42: Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK) — PSU win probability +18.6 pts (now 60%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 5:56: Miller Moss pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 5 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK) — USC win probability +27.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:53: Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 14 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK) — PSU win probability +40.8 pts (now 58%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. FG · OT 0:00: Ryan Barker 36 yd FG GOOD — PSU win probability +15.3 pts (now 72%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 7 of 7PSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 13:02USC 4th & 8 at USC 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:53PSU 4th & 17 at USC 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.4%−0.6
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.0%
    80% to make
    Punt
    53.4%−1.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:57PSU 4th & 8 at PSU 44, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:05USC 4th & 12 at PSU 28, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%−1.2
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.3%
    60% to make
    Punt
    54.2%−5.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:47PSU 4th & 3 at PSU 42, down 14
    Close callPunted · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.4%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:09USC 4th & 3 at USC 25, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%−0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:46PSU 4th & 11 at USC 16, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%−1.0
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.2%
    81% to make
    Punt
    24.6%−4.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:07USC 4th & 10 at PSU 30, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.0%
    56% to make
    Punt
    68.1%−1.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:26USC 4th & 13 at PSU 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%−2.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:40USC 4th & 5 at USC 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.2%−2.0
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:28USC 4th & 8 at PSU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.2%−1.4
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.5%
    72% to make
    Punt
    43.3%−11.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:50PSU 4th & 3 at USC 3, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.1%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.7%−2.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    23.4%−17.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:27PSU 4th & 7 at PSU 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.4%−1.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:48PSU 4th & 10 at USC 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.2%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    10.7%−0.5
    36% to make
    Punt
    9.0%−2.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3PSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 4:38USC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:33USC Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:52PSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:42PSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:56USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.0%−1.8
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:53PSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.1%−0.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:5834% → 35%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
33.7%
Woody Marks run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 24Similar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+14
33.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 14 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
34.2%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:51
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+2
34.2%
Woody Marks run for 2 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q1 13:07
3RD & 8
OWN 40
0
34.5%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:02
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
34.5%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 49 yds, downed at the PSU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 2FG
15 plays · 72 yds · 7:5765% → 63%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+10
34.6%
Nicholas Singleton run for 10 yds to the PSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
34.8%
Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the PSU 22Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+6
35.0%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 6 yds to the PSU 28Similar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+4
35.2%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 4 yds to the PSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+16
35.3%
Drew Allar pass complete to Liam Clifford for 16 yds to the PSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
35.1%
Kaytron Allen run for 8 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+1
35.2%
Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the USC 43Similar
Q1 8:59
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+4
35.4%
Tyler Warren run for 4 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
35.6%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 14 yds to the USC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+21
35.5%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 21 yds to the USC 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
35.7%
Nicholas Singleton run for no gain to the USC 4Similar
Q1 6:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
35.9%
Drew Allar run for 1 yd to the USC 3Similar
Q1 5:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
36.4%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 1 yd to the USC 2Similar
Q1 5:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
-15
37.1%
(05:01) ALLAR, Drew pass short to the right complete for 2 yards to WARREN, Tyler caught at the USC1 and advanced to the USC0, TOUCHDOWN PSU, score nullified by penalty, clock 04:57 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY PSU Pass Interference on FLEMING, Julian enforced 15 yards to the USC17 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 17
+34
37.3%
Ryan Barker 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3TD
1 play · 75 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
39.4%
Quinten Joyner run for 75 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 2:4160% → 58%
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
39.6%
Nicholas Singleton run for 8 yds to the PSU 33Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+9
39.2%
Tyler Warren pass complete to Kaytron Allen for 9 yds to the PSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
39.4%
Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the PSU 45Similar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+4
39.4%
Drew Allar pass complete to Liam Clifford for 4 yds to the PSU 49Similar
Q1 2:02
3RD & 3
OWN 49
0
40.5%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:57
4TH & 3
OWN 49
-5
41.0%
Penn State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PSU 44Similar
Q1 1:57
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
41.8%
Riley Thompson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Zion Branch at the USC 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5TD
7 plays · 89 yds · 3:1641% → 52%
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
40.9%
Woody Marks run for 3 yds to the USC 14Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+16
41.3%
Miller Moss pass complete to Makai Lemon for 16 yds to the USC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
41.7%
Woody Marks run for 12 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
43.1%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+21
42.6%
Woody Marks run for 21 yds to the PSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+28
43.9%
Woody Marks run for 28 yds to the PSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
51.5%
Miller Moss pass complete to Quinten Joyner for 9 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6INT
4 plays · 25 yds · 1:0150% → 51%
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
49.8%
USC Penalty, Block below the waist on RAMSEY, Kamari enforced (Kamari Ramsey) to the PSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
48.9%
Kaytron Allen run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 6
50
0
49.2%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:32
3RD & 6
50
-42
49.5%
Drew Allar pass intercepted Desman Stephens II return for 42 yds to the PSU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7FG
4 plays · -2 yds · 2:1053% → 59%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
52.9%
Woody Marks run for no gain to the PSU 26Similar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-3
53.6%
Miller Moss pass complete to Zachariah Branch for a loss of 3 yards to the PSU 29Similar
Q2 10:51
3RD & 13
OPP 29
+1
53.3%
Woody Marks run for 1 yd to the PSU 28Similar
Q2 10:05
4TH & 12
OPP 28
+45
58.6%
Michael Lantz 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 2:1842% → 40%
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
57.7%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 10 yds to the PSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
58.3%
Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd to the PSU 36Similar
Q2 8:47
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+2
59.2%
Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the PSU 38Similar
Q2 8:23
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+4
59.8%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 4 yds to the PSU 42Similar
Q2 7:47
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
60.4%
Riley Thompson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Zachariah Branch at the USC 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3061% → 60%
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
60.9%
Quinten Joyner run for 3 yds to the USC 21Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 7
OWN 21
0
61.5%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:57
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+4
60.2%
Miller Moss pass complete to Makai Lemon for 4 yds to the USC 25Similar
Q2 6:09
4TH & 3
OWN 25
+1
60.4%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 56 yds , Zion Tracy returns for 1 yd to the PSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10FG
10 plays · 64 yds · 3:1238% → 38%
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
62.1%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+20
62.5%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 20 yds to the PSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
61.8%
Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the PSU 42Similar
Q2 5:19
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+6
62.1%
Kaytron Allen run for 6 yds to the PSU 48Similar
Q2 4:57
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+18
61.0%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 18 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+19
60.2%
Drew Allar run for 19 yds to the USC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
60.4%
Nicholas Singleton run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 16Similar
Q2 3:03
2ND & 11
OPP 16
0
61.8%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:56
3RD & 11
OPP 16
0
62.9%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:46
4TH & 11
OPP 16
+33
62.4%
Ryan Barker 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11FG
10 plays · 49 yds · 2:3563% → 72%
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
62.5%
Miller Moss pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 8 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+8
63.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Makai Lemon for 8 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+33
67.6%
Miller Moss pass complete to Woody Marks for 33 yds to the PSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
69.4%
Woody Marks run for 3 yds to the PSU 27Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 7
OPP 27
-15
69.8%
(00:52) MARKS, Woody rush up the middle for a gain of 17 yards to the PSU10 (REED, Jaylen;WHEATLEY, Zakee), clock 00:45. PENALTY USC Block below the waist on LYONS, Walker enforced 15 yards from the PSU27 to the PSU42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 22
OPP 42
+9
69.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 9 yds to the PSU 33Similar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 13
OPP 33
+3
68.0%
Miller Moss pass complete to Quinten Joyner for 3 yds to the PSU 30Similar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+47
72.1%
Michael Lantz 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
70.8%
Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the PSU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:0829% → 46%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
70.9%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 10 yds to the PSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
70.6%
Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the PSU 36Similar
Q3 13:58
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+19
71.3%
Drew Allar pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 19 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+13
69.8%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 13 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
54.5%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 32 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 3:2661% → 64%
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
60.5%
Woody Marks run for no gain to the USC 25Similar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+30
61.0%
Miller Moss pass complete to Makai Lemon for 30 yds to the PSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
64.9%
Woody Marks run for a loss of 1 yard to the PSU 46Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 11
OPP 46
0
64.9%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:45
3RD & 11
OPP 46
-10
62.9%
(10:45) MOSS, Miller pass deep to the right complete for 42 yards to ROBINSON, Duce caught at the PSU25 and advanced to the PSU4 (HARRIS, AJ), out of bounds, clock 10:35. PENALTY USC Holding on MARKS, Woody enforced 10 yards from the PSU46 to the USC44 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:22
3RD & 21
OWN 44
-5
62.2%
USC Penalty, False Start (Alani Noa) to the USC 39Similar
Q3 10:04
3RD & 26
OWN 39
+13
62.5%
Woody Marks run for 13 yds to the PSU 48Similar
Q3 9:26
4TH & 13
OPP 48
0
63.6%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 38 yds, downed at the PSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15TD
8 plays · 90 yds · 4:3437% → 60%
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
62.6%
Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the PSU 12Similar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+6
63.4%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 6 yds to the PSU 18Similar
Q3 7:56
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+4
64.6%
Kaytron Allen run for 4 yds to the PSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+25
63.7%
Drew Allar pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 25 yds to the PSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+34
61.1%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 34 yds to the USC 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+16
58.3%
Drew Allar pass complete to Omari Evans for 16 yds to the USC 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
58.8%
Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the USC 1Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
40.2%
Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:5750% → 49%
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
49.7%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:31
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
49.3%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:26
3RD & 10
OWN 16
+10
47.6%
Miller Moss pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 10 yds to the USC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-4
50.5%
Miller Moss sacked by Abdul Carter for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 22Similar
Q3 2:59
2ND & 14
OWN 22
+8
49.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 8 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q3 2:19
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+1
49.6%
Miller Moss pass complete to Makai Lemon for 1 yd to the USC 31Similar
Q3 1:40
4TH & 5
OWN 31
0
48.6%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Zion Tracy at the PSU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
47.1%
Drew Allar pass intercepted Easton Mascarenas-Arnold return for no gain to the PSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5957% → 60%
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
57.4%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:21
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+2
57.4%
Woody Marks run for 2 yds to the PSU 22Similar
Q3 0:38
3RD & 8
OPP 22
0
55.9%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:28
4TH & 8
OPP 22
+39
60.1%
Michael Lantz 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19FG
10 plays · 72 yds · 4:3841% → 54%
Q3 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
59.5%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 7 yds to the PSU 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
56.7%
Kaytron Allen run for 5 yds to the PSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
59.9%
Kaytron Allen run for 6 yds to the PSU 43Similar
Q4 13:43
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+15
57.4%
USC Penalty, Roughing the Passer on LUCAS, Anthony enforced (Anthony Lucas) to the USC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
54.5%
Penn State Penalty, False Start (Drew Shelton) to the USC 30Similar
Q4 13:08
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+21
56.8%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 21 yds to the USC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
54.7%
Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the USC 7Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
54.9%
Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the USC 5Similar
Q4 11:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
57.3%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 2 yds to the USC 3Similar
Q4 10:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
46.3%
Ryan Barker 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:5453% → 90%
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
53.4%
Miller Moss pass complete to Woody Marks for 11 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
55.6%
Woody Marks run for 6 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q4 9:38
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+9
58.6%
Woody Marks run for 9 yds to the PSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
59.9%
Woody Marks run for 11 yds to the PSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
60.6%
Quinten Joyner run for 4 yds to the PSU 34Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 6
OPP 34
0
62.5%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:20
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+25
60.0%
Miller Moss pass complete to Duce Robinson for 25 yds to the PSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
62.5%
Woody Marks run for 4 yds to the PSU 5Similar
Q4 5:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
90.1%
Miller Moss pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 5 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:0316% → 58%
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
84.1%
Kaytron Allen run for 7 yds to the PSU 32Similar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+9
81.7%
Drew Allar pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 9 yds to the PSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
82.0%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+3
83.3%
Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the PSU 44Similar
Q4 4:35
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
83.5%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:27
4TH & 7
OWN 44
+17
85.4%
Drew Allar pass complete to Julian Fleming for 17 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
81.1%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
81.7%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:55
3RD & 10
OPP 39
0
83.2%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:48
4TH & 10
OPP 39
+16
87.8%
Drew Allar pass complete to Julian Fleming for 16 yds to the USC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
83.0%
Drew Allar run for 9 yds to the USC 14Similar
Q4 2:53
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+14
42.2%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 14 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 22INT
10 plays · 30 yds · 2:3958% → 65%
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
58.4%
Miller Moss pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 9 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
62.2%
Woody Marks run for 3 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
58.3%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+14
57.7%
Miller Moss pass complete to Makai Lemon for 14 yds to the PSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
62.9%
Woody Marks run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 49Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+6
59.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Jay Fair for 6 yds to the PSU 45Similar
Q4 0:14
3RD & 6
OPP 45
-22
64.7%
Miller Moss pass intercepted Jaylen Reed return for 22 yds to the USC 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23INT
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:0357% → 60%
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
43.5%
Drew Allar pass complete to Liam Clifford for 6 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q4 0:02
2ND & 4
OPP 43
-35
40.5%
Drew Allar pass intercepted Duce Robinson return for 35 yds to the USC 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 24MISSED FG
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0066% → 55%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
65.6%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-3
65.4%
Woody Marks run for a loss of 3 yards to the PSU 28Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 13
OPP 28
0
59.8%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 13
OPP 28
+45
55.4%
Michael Lantz 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 25FG
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0059% → 56%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
41.1%
Kaytron Allen run for no gain to the USC 25Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+3
41.7%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 3 yds to the USC 22Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+3
43.8%
Drew Allar run for 3 yds to the USC 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:53
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 14 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)
-40.8
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-28.4
TD · Q4 5:56
Miller Moss pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 5 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)
+27.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com