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MINN

Minnesota 21 at UCLA 17

UCLA
2024 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2024 · Rose Bowl
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Win probability · UCLA
modelUCLA aheadMINN aheadconfidence bandkey playUCLA scoreMINN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:57 · Mark Crawford punt for 48 yds , Logan Loya returns for 18 yds to the UCLA 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 67Pregame prior−7.1Home team on offense+5.4Garbage-time factor−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.6Score differential+1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:33: Max Brosmer pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 12 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK) — MINN win probability +14.3 pts (now 50%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q3 7:16: Darius Taylor run for 2 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK) — MINN win probability +14.7 pts (now 66%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 6:54: Ethan Garbers pass complete to J.Michael Sturdivant for 42 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK) — UCLA win probability +33.7 pts (now 74%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:43: T.J. Harden run for 3 yds to the UCLA 6 — UCLA win probability +14.7 pts (now 83%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:27: Max Brosmer pass complete to Darius Taylor for 4 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK) — MINN win probability +74.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCLA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6MINN made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
  1. Q1 14:11MINN 4th & 11 at MINN 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:37MINN 4th & 6 at UCLA 45, down 7
    Close callPunted · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    49.9%−0.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    50.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:13MINN 4th & 13 at MINN 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%−1.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:28UCLA 4th & 10 at UCLA 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:11MINN 4th & 4 at UCLA 25, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.4%−0.6
    66% to make
    Punt
    36.1%−5.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:45UCLA 4th & 12 at UCLA 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%−2.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:57MINN 4th & 11 at MINN 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−2.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:20UCLA 4th & 14 at UCLA 8, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%−3.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:34UCLA 4th & 7 at MINN 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.9%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:44MINN 4th & 2 at MINN 46, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.8%−2.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:53MINN 4th & 6 at UCLA 47, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.3 ptsPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%−5.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:26UCLA 4th & 1 at UCLA 12, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.0 ptsPunted · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.1%−5.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:10UCLA 4th & 1 at UCLA 34, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.4%−5.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCLA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MINN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:49UCLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 10:33MINN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:16MINN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 6:54UCLA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.3%−1.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:27MINN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.8%−1.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MINNDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:4063% → 63%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
36.6%
Darius Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the MINN 24Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
36.8%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:17
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
36.8%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:11
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+12
36.9%
Mark Crawford punt for 47 yds , Logan Loya returns for 12 yds to the UCLA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 2TD
10 plays · 59 yds · 5:1237% → 42%
Q1 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
37.0%
T.J. Harden run for no gain to the UCLA 41Similar
Q1 13:26
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
37.2%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Logan Loya for 5 yds to the UCLA 46Similar
Q1 12:47
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+22
37.5%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to J.Michael Sturdivant for 22 yds to the MINN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
38.1%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Jack Pedersen for 5 yds to the MINN 27Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+8
38.4%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Kwazi Gilmer for 8 yds to the MINN 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
38.6%
T.J. Harden run for 2 yds to the MINN 17Similar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+1
38.9%
Ethan Garbers run for 1 yd to the MINN 16Similar
Q1 9:46
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+14
39.2%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Logan Loya for 14 yds to the MINN 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
39.7%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
41.8%
Keegan Jones run for 1 yd for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 31 yds · 5:0459% → 55%
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
41.2%
Marcus Major run for 4 yds to the MINN 28Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+5
41.5%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 5 yds to the MINN 33Similar
Q1 7:31
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+5
42.0%
Darius Taylor run for 5 yds to the MINN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
42.2%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Jameson Geers for 9 yds to the MINN 47Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+4
42.0%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Marcus Major for 4 yds to the UCLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
42.4%
Minnesota Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MINN 46Similar
Q1 5:41
1ST & 15
OWN 46
+10
43.2%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 10 yds to the UCLA 44Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 5
OPP 44
0
42.8%
Darius Taylor run for no gain to the UCLA 44Similar
Q1 4:18
3RD & 5
OPP 44
-1
43.5%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Daniel Jackson for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 45Similar
Q1 3:37
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
44.8%
Mark Crawford punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Logan Loya at the UCLA 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 4INT
11 plays · 68 yds · 4:4045% → 50%
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
45.3%
Jalen Berger run for 3 yds to the UCLA 12Similar
Q1 2:52
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+5
45.7%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to J.Michael Sturdivant for 5 yds to the UCLA 17Similar
Q1 2:10
3RD & 2
OWN 17
+7
45.5%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to J.Michael Sturdivant for 7 yds to the UCLA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
46.7%
Ethan Garbers run for 5 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q1 1:05
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+8
47.2%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Moliki Matavao for 8 yds to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+18
48.0%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Carter Shaw for 18 yds to the MINN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+18
49.1%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to T.J. Harden for 18 yds to the MINN 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
49.5%
T.J. Harden run for 4 yds to the MINN 23Similar
Q2 13:53
2ND & 6
OPP 23
0
49.9%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:47
3RD & 6
OPP 23
0
49.5%
Ethan Garbers pass intercepted Cody Lindenberg return for no gain to the MINN 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:2752% → 50%
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-2
48.0%
Max Brosmer sacked by Siale Taupaki for a loss of 2 yards to the MINN 12Similar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 12
OWN 12
-1
48.7%
Darius Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the MINN 11Similar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 13
OWN 11
0
49.8%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:13
4TH & 13
OWN 11
0
50.3%
Mark Crawford punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Logan Loya at the UCLA 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:3651% → 50%
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
51.2%
Keegan Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 45Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+1
50.9%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Kwazi Gilmer for 1 yd to the UCLA 46Similar
Q2 10:39
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
50.7%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:28
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
49.7%
Brody Richter punt for 41 yds , Koi Perich returns for no gain to the MINN 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 7MISSED FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 5:1550% → 47%
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
49.7%
Darius Taylor run for 6 yds to the MINN 34Similar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+12
49.5%
Marcus Major run for 12 yds to the MINN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
49.4%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Frank Bierman for 13 yds to the UCLA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
49.3%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 4 yds to the UCLA 37Similar
Q2 8:24
2ND & 6
OPP 37
0
49.1%
Darius Taylor run for no gain to the UCLA 37Similar
Q2 7:36
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+6
50.8%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 6 yds to the UCLA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
49.5%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:42
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+1
49.7%
Darius Taylor run for 1 yd to the UCLA 30Similar
Q2 5:57
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+5
51.4%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 5 yds to the UCLA 25Similar
Q2 5:11
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+43
53.3%
Dragan Kesich 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:2555% → 53%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
54.5%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Bryce Pierre for 5 yds to the UCLA 30Similar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
55.3%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:26
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-7
54.3%
Ethan Garbers sacked by Anthony Smith for a loss of 7 yards to the UCLA 23Similar
Q2 3:45
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+1
53.4%
Brody Richter punt for 45 yds , Koi Perich returns for 1 yd to the MINN 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 2:3744% → 39%
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
55.7%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+3
56.0%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Marcus Major for 3 yds to the MINN 26Similar
Q2 2:50
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+5
57.1%
(02:50) BROSMER, Max pass to the left complete for 0 yards to JACKSON, Daniel caught at the MINN25 and advanced to the MINN26 (SCHWESINGER, Carson), clock 02:46. PENALTY UCLA Offsides on WOODS, Jalen enforced 5 yards from the MINN26 to the MINN31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:28
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+3
55.7%
Darius Taylor run for 3 yds to the MINN 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
56.1%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+8
56.7%
Max Brosmer run for 8 yds to the MINN 42Similar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 2
OWN 42
-9
54.5%
Max Brosmer sacked by Carson Schwesinger for a loss of 9 yards to the MINN 33Similar
Q2 0:57
4TH & 11
OWN 33
+18
60.7%
Mark Crawford punt for 48 yds , Logan Loya returns for 18 yds to the UCLA 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 10FG
6 plays · 47 yds · 0:4559% → 65%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
59.2%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
50
+2
61.1%
Ethan Garbers run for 2 yds to the MINN 48Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+32
61.1%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to T.J. Harden for 32 yds to the MINN 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
61.9%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
62.0%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+34
64.5%
Mateen Bhaghani 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:3265% → 64%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
64.7%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+3
64.6%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 3 yds Titus Mokiao-Atimalala fumbled, recovered by UCLA Titus Mokiao-Atimalala T. Mokiao-Atimalala return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q3 14:04
3RD & 7
OWN 15
-7
64.1%
Ethan Garbers sacked by Jack Henderson for a loss of 7 yards to the UCLA 8Similar
Q3 13:20
4TH & 14
OWN 8
0
63.7%
Brody Richter punt for 38 yds, downed at the UCLA 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 12TD
6 plays · 46 yds · 2:4036% → 50%
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
64.0%
Darius Taylor run for 7 yds to the UCLA 39Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+9
64.1%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 9 yds to the UCLA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
63.7%
(12:02) BROSMER, Max pass to the right incomplete intended for SPENCER, Elijah broken up by MOORE, Kaylin at the UCLA17, clock 11:58. PENALTY UCLA Pass Interference on DAVIES, Jaylin enforced 15 yards to the UCLA15 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
63.3%
Darius Taylor run for 1 yd to the UCLA 14Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+2
63.8%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Jameson Geers for 2 yds to the UCLA 12Similar
Q3 10:33
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+12
49.6%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 12 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 13INT
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:4255% → 57%
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
54.6%
T.J. Harden run for 6 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
56.8%
Ethan Garbers pass intercepted Koi Perich return for no gain to the UCLA 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 14TD
7 plays · 38 yds · 2:2850% → 66%
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
50.2%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:37
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+15
50.2%
UCLA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Siale Taupaki) to the UCLA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
48.7%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Darius Taylor for 1 yd to the UCLA 19Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+15
48.9%
(08:39) BROSMER, Max pass deep to the left incomplete intended for JACKSON, Daniel thrown to the UCLA0, clock 08:34. PENALTY UCLA Pass Interference on MOORE, Kaylin enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the UCLA4 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
48.9%
Darius Taylor run for 3 yds to the UCLA 1Similar
Q3 7:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
49.0%
Darius Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 2Similar
Q3 7:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
34.3%
Darius Taylor run for 2 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 5:4139% → 37%
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
39.0%
Jalen Berger run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 24Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
38.8%
Jalen Berger run for 4 yds to the UCLA 28Similar
Q3 5:46
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+8
37.7%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 8 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
40.4%
Jalen Berger run for no gain to the UCLA 36Similar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
39.0%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Moliki Matavao for 9 yds to the UCLA 45Similar
Q3 4:10
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+4
41.3%
Jalen Berger run for 4 yds to the UCLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
41.0%
Jalen Berger run for 7 yds to the MINN 44Similar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+1
41.9%
Jalen Berger run for 1 yd to the MINN 43Similar
Q3 2:19
3RD & 2
OPP 43
-5
41.4%
Ethan Garbers sacked by Jah Joyner for a loss of 5 yards to the MINN 48Similar
Q3 1:34
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
36.8%
Brody Richter punt for 34 yds, downed at the MINN 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 3:4066% → 67%
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+12
34.0%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 12 yds to the MINN 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
33.6%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:32
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+12
33.9%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Darius Taylor for 12 yds to the MINN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
31.1%
Marcus Major run for 2 yds to the MINN 40Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 8
OWN 40
-9
30.5%
Max Brosmer sacked by Carson Schwesinger for a loss of 9 yards to the MINN 31Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 17
OWN 31
+10
34.9%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 10 yds to the MINN 41Similar
Q4 12:52
4TH & 7
OWN 41
+5
34.5%
(12:52) CRAWFORD, Mark punt 41 yards to the UCLA18, fair catch by LOYA, Logan, clock 12:46. PENALTY UCLA Offsides on STAPLES, Ezavier enforced 5 yards from the MINN41 to the MINN46 [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:44
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
32.8%
Mark Crawford punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Logan Loya at the UCLA 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 17TD
9 plays · 89 yds · 5:4137% → 74%
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+10
36.6%
Ethan Garbers run for 10 yds to the UCLA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
36.9%
T.J. Harden run for no gain to the UCLA 21Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+7
36.7%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to T.J. Harden for 7 yds to the UCLA 28Similar
Q4 10:34
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+4
36.1%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to J.Michael Sturdivant for 4 yds to the UCLA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
37.2%
Keegan Jones run for 1 yd to the UCLA 33Similar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+9
36.9%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Logan Loya for 9 yds to the UCLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
40.3%
Jalen Berger run for 2 yds to the UCLA 44Similar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+14
40.5%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to J.Michael Sturdivant for 14 yds to the MINN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
74.2%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to J.Michael Sturdivant for 42 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 4:0035% → 31%
Q4 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
65.2%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Jameson Geers for 10 yds to the MINN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
65.0%
Darius Taylor run for 2 yds to the MINN 37Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+5
65.0%
Max Brosmer run for 5 yds to the MINN 42Similar
Q4 4:50
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+7
62.4%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 7 yds to the MINN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
61.3%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
62.9%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Marcus Major for no gain to the MINN 49Similar
Q4 3:37
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+4
65.2%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 4 yds to the UCLA 47Similar
Q4 2:53
4TH & 6
OPP 47
0
68.7%
Mark Crawford punt for 44 yds, downed at the UCLA 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:1783% → 85%
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
83.4%
T.J. Harden run for 3 yds to the UCLA 6Similar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 7
OWN 6
0
84.7%
T.J. Harden run for no gain to the UCLA 6Similar
Q4 2:31
3RD & 7
OWN 6
+6
84.6%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Moliki Matavao for 6 yds to the UCLA 12Similar
Q4 2:26
4TH & 1
OWN 12
+3
84.6%
Brody Richter punt for 52 yds , Koi Perich returns for 3 yds to the MINN 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 20TD
9 plays · 61 yds · 1:4914% → 96%
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
85.8%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Jameson Geers for 13 yds to the UCLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+27
79.3%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 27 yds to the UCLA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
76.0%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 8 yds to the UCLA 13Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 2
OPP 13
0
77.4%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:07
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+4
79.9%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 4 yds to the UCLA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
78.9%
(00:48) TAYLOR, Darius rush to the right for no gain to the UCLA9 (SCHWESINGER, Carson), clock 00:43. PENALTY Before the snap, UCLA Delay Of Game on TAUPAKI, Siale enforced 5 yards from the end of the play at the UCLA9 to the UCLA4. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
79.0%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
4.5%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Darius Taylor for 4 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 21INT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:2215% → 17%
Q4 0:22
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
14.7%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
15.2%
Ethan Garbers run for 1 yd to the UCLA 21Similar
Q4 0:16
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+13
13.6%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to J.Michael Sturdivant for 13 yds to the UCLA 34Similar
Q4 0:10
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+17
14.2%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Logan Loya for 17 yds to the MINN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
17.2%
Ethan Garbers pass intercepted Koi Perich return for 2 yds to the MINN 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:27
Max Brosmer pass complete to Darius Taylor for 4 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)
-74.8
TD · Q4 6:54
Ethan Garbers pass complete to J.Michael Sturdivant for 42 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)
+33.7
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-17.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com