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Northwestern 37 at Maryland 10

MD
2024 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2024 · SECU Stadium
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Win probability · MD
modelMD aheadNU aheadconfidence bandkey playMD scoreNU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:06 · Bryce McFerson punt for 50 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 72Home team on offense−9.7Pregame prior+15.8Score differential−4.2Garbage-time factor−2.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:08: Cam Porter run for 3 yds for a TD (Luke Akers KICK) — NU win probability +7.1 pts (now 41%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 10:50: Luke Akers 43 yd FG GOOD — NU win probability +5.4 pts (now 47%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:22: Billy Edwards Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Howes KICK) — MD win probability +8.1 pts (now 58%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 14:57: Jack Howes 31 yd FG GOOD — MD win probability +3.5 pts (now 38%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:17: Aidan Hubbard 2 Yd Fumble Return (Luke Akers Kick) — NU win probability +18.5 pts (now 82%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MD made the numbers' call on 6 of 9NU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 14:02NU 4th & 7 at NU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:44MD 4th & 15 at MD 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:16MD 4th & 10 at NU 40, down 7
    Close callPunted · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    70.3%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:50NU 4th & 13 at MD 26, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%−1.9
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.3%
    64% to make
    Punt
    37.2%−6.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:22MD 4th & 1 at NU 1, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    43.9%−1.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    39.4%−6.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:52NU 4th & 6 at NU 19, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:06MD 4th & 7 at MD 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:42NU 4th & 10 at NU 6, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%−3.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:11MD 4th & 10 at NU 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.7%
    42% to make
    Punt
    48.3%−1.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:57MD 4th & 4 at NU 37, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    44.3%−1.6
    40% to make
    Punt
    44.1%−1.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:35NU 4th & 4 at NU 43, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.4%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:57MD 4th & 13 at NU 13, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%−2.5
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.4%
    85% to make
    Punt
    20.4%−9.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:38NU 4th & 8 at NU 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%−2.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:13MD 4th & 6 at NU 19, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.8%−1.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    17.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    9.8%−8.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:55NU 4th & 5 at MD 21, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    84.5%−6.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:23NU 4th & 11 at MD 21, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    91.6%−2.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:48MD 4th & 8 at NU 17, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%
    80% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MD made the numbers' call on 1 of 1NU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 8:03NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:08NU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:22MD Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:17NU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.9%−0.4
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:30NU Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5221% → 21%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
79.0%
Jack Lausch pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-5
79.0%
Northwestern Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NU 21Similar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 15
OWN 21
+8
79.0%
Jack Lausch pass complete to A.J. Henning for 8 yds to the NU 29Similar
Q1 14:16
3RD & 7
OWN 29
0
78.9%
Jack Lausch pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:02
4TH & 7
OWN 29
+13
78.9%
Luke Akers punt for 43 yds , Ricardo Cooper Jr. returns for 13 yds to the MD 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:0979% → 78%
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
78.8%
Roman Hemby run for 6 yds to the MD 47Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 4
OWN 47
0
78.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:27
3RD & 4
OWN 47
-11
78.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. sacked by Michael Kilbane for a loss of 11 yards to the MD 36Similar
Q1 12:44
4TH & 15
OWN 36
0
78.4%
Bryce McFerson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by A.J. Henning at the NU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 3TD
9 plays · 62 yds · 4:3122% → 25%
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
78.4%
Jack Lausch run for 6 yds to the NU 44Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 4
OWN 44
-5
78.1%
Northwestern Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NU 39Similar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+5
78.1%
(11:38) LAUSCH, Jack pass to the left incomplete intended for KIRTZ, Bryce thrown to the NW50, clock 11:34. PENALTY UMD Offsides on AKINGBESOTE, Tommy enforced 5 yards from the NW39 to the NW44 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+7
78.0%
Cam Porter run for 7 yds to the MD 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
77.7%
Jack Lausch sacked by Kellan Wyatt and TEAM for a loss of 5 yards to the NU 46Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 15
OWN 46
+40
77.7%
Jack Lausch pass complete to A.J. Henning for 40 yds to the MD 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
77.1%
Cam Porter run for 4 yds to the MD 10Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+1
76.9%
Cam Porter run for 1 yd to the MD 9Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+9
74.6%
Jack Lausch run for 9 yds for a TD (Luke Akers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 35 yds · 4:4775% → 72%
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
75.2%
Roman Hemby run for 4 yds to the MD 29Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
75.1%
Roman Hemby run for 7 yds to the MD 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
74.9%
Roman Hemby run for a loss of 3 yards to the MD 33Similar
Q1 6:37
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+16
74.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 16 yds to the MD 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
74.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 4 yds to the NU 47Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+4
74.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 4 yds to the NU 43Similar
Q1 4:56
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+3
74.2%
Roman Hemby run for 3 yds to the NU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
74.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Kaden Prather for 2 yds to the NU 38Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 8
OPP 38
-2
73.9%
Nolan Ray run for a loss of 2 yards to the NU 40Similar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
73.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:16
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
72.3%
Bryce McFerson punt for 32 yds, fair catch by A.J. Henning at the NU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 5TD
11 plays · 92 yds · 6:0828% → 41%
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-3
72.2%
Joseph Himon II run for a loss of 3 yards to the NU 5Similar
Q1 2:36
2ND & 13
OWN 5
+28
71.7%
Jack Lausch pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 28 yds to the NU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
70.5%
Jack Lausch pass complete to Frank Covey IV for 3 yds to the NU 36Similar
Q1 1:21
2ND & 7
OWN 36
-5
69.8%
(01:21) LAUSCH, Jack pass short to the left incomplete intended for COVEY IV, Frank broken up by THOMAS, Kevis at the NW40, clock 01:08. PENALTY Before the snap, NW Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the NW36 to the NW31. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 1:03
2ND & 12
OWN 31
+3
70.3%
Joseph Himon II run for 3 yds to the NU 34Similar
Q1 0:33
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+13
70.0%
Jack Lausch run for 13 yds to the NU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
68.4%
Caleb Komolafe run for 2 yds to the NU 49Similar
Q2 14:29
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+1
67.9%
Jack Lausch run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:50
3RD & 7
50
+40
67.5%
Jack Lausch pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 40 yds to the MD 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
66.3%
Caleb Komolafe run for 7 yds to the MD 3Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
59.2%
Cam Porter run for 3 yds for a TD (Luke Akers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6FG
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:1241% → 47%
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
59.1%
Jack Lausch pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:52
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-1
58.5%
Cam Porter run for a loss of 1 yard to the MD 24Similar
Q2 11:22
3RD & 11
OPP 24
-2
58.1%
Jack Lausch sacked by Caleb Wheatland for a loss of 2 yards to the MD 26Similar
Q2 10:50
4TH & 13
OPP 26
+43
52.8%
Luke Akers 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 7TD
18 plays · 90 yds · 7:2555% → 58%
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
55.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 11 yds to the MD 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
55.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Kaden Prather for 8 yds to the MD 29Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+19
55.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Preston Howard for 19 yds to the MD 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
55.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 3 yds to the NU 49Similar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+10
54.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 10 yds to the NU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
54.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+12
54.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 12 yds to the NU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
54.7%
Nolan Ray run for 3 yds to the NU 24Similar
Q2 7:04
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+5
54.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Roman Hemby for 5 yds to the NU 19Similar
Q2 6:24
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+8
52.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Kaden Prather for 8 yds to the NU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
52.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
52.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+9
51.0%
(05:30) EDWARDS JR., Billy pass to the left incomplete intended for HEMBY, Roman thrown to the NW0, clock 05:24. PENALTY NW Pass Interference on TURNER, Braden enforced 9 yards to the NW2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
52.6%
Roman Hemby run for no gain to the NU 2Similar
Q2 4:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
51.3%
Roman Hemby run for 1 yd to the NU 1Similar
Q2 4:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
49.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for no gain to the NU 1Similar
Q2 3:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
57.5%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:2345% → 46%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-4
55.5%
Joseph Himon II run for a loss of 4 yards to the NU 11Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 14
OWN 11
+13
54.8%
Jack Lausch pass complete to A.J. Henning for 13 yds to the NU 24Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 1
OWN 24
-5
52.6%
Cam Porter run for a loss of 5 yards to the NU 19Similar
Q2 1:52
4TH & 6
OWN 19
0
53.9%
Luke Akers punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Braeden Wisloski at the MD 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:3953% → 51%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
52.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+3
52.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 3 yds to the MD 44Similar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
51.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:06
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
50.6%
Bryce McFerson punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:1648% → 47%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-1
51.8%
Jack Lausch run for a loss of 1 yard to the NU 5Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 11
OWN 5
0
52.0%
Jack Lausch pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 11
OWN 5
+1
52.8%
Caleb Komolafe run for 1 yd to the NU 6Similar
Q2 0:42
4TH & 10
OWN 6
+6
53.3%
Luke Akers punt for 49 yds , Braeden Wisloski returns for 6 yds to the NU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 11MISSED FG
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:2153% → 51%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
52.5%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+13
51.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Preston Howard for 13 yds to the NU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
52.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
52.3%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 10
OPP 36
0
51.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:11
4TH & 10
OPP 36
+54
50.9%
Jack Howes 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
48.4%
(00:05) Kneel down by LAUSCH, Jack at NW35 (team loss of 1), clock 00:02.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 13DOWNS
9 plays · 38 yds · 4:0351% → 45%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
50.6%
Roman Hemby run for 3 yds to the MD 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
50.9%
Roman Hemby run for 8 yds to the MD 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
51.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 11 yds to the MD 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
52.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 10 yds to the NU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
53.4%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the NU 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 41
-4
53.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Roman Hemby for a loss of 4 yards to the NU 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 45
+8
51.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Kaden Prather for 8 yds to the NU 37Similar
Q3 10:57
4TH & 4
OPP 37
0
46.5%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
44.8%
Northwestern Penalty, False Start (Ben Wrather) to the NU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2254% → 56%
Q3 10:57
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+5
46.0%
Jack Lausch pass complete to Calvin Johnson II for 5 yds to the NU 37Similar
Q3 10:31
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+6
44.6%
Jack Lausch pass complete to Thomas Gordon for 6 yds to the NU 43Similar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
43.5%
Jack Lausch pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:35
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
44.4%
Luke Akers punt for 56 yds, downed at the MD 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 15FG
18 plays · 86 yds · 9:2843% → 38%
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
43.0%
Roman Hemby run for no gain to the MD 1Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+20
41.9%
Roman Hemby run for 20 yds to the MD 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-6
41.9%
Roman Hemby run for a loss of 6 yards to the MD 15Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 16
OWN 15
+15
41.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 15 yds to the MD 30Similar
Q3 6:53
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+4
40.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 4 yds to the MD 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
39.1%
Nolan Ray run for 3 yds to the MD 37Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+5
39.2%
Nolan Ray run for 5 yds to the MD 42Similar
Q3 5:19
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+3
39.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 3 yds to the MD 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
38.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Dylan Wade for 17 yds to the NU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
39.4%
Nolan Ray run for 3 yds to the NU 35Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+1
40.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 1 yd to the NU 34Similar
Q3 3:12
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+12
38.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Preston Howard for 12 yds to the NU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
39.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:08
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+21
38.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Kaden Prather for 21 yds to the NU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
38.5%
Roman Hemby run for a loss of 3 yards to the NU 4Similar
Q3 1:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
37.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for no gain to the NU 4Similar
Q3 0:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-9
34.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. sacked by Aidan Hubbard for a loss of 9 yards to the NU 13Similar
Q4 14:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+31
38.3%
Jack Howes 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1964% → 65%
Q4 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
35.6%
Jack Lausch pass complete to Thomas Gordon for 5 yds to the NU 30Similar
Q4 14:28
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-3
32.1%
Joseph Himon II run for a loss of 3 yards to the NU 27Similar
Q4 14:01
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
33.9%
Jack Lausch pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:38
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
35.0%
Luke Akers punt for 58 yds , Braeden Wisloski returns for no gain to the MD 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 17FUMBLE RETURN TD
2 plays · -13 yds · 0:1037% → 18%
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
36.5%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+2
18.0%
Aidan Hubbard 2 Yd Fumble Return (Luke Akers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 18DOWNS
9 plays · 56 yds · 2:0419% → 19%
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
18.5%
(13:17) EDWARDS JR., Billy pass short to the right complete for 3 yards to HEMBY, Roman caught at the UMD26 and advanced to the UMD28 (JOHNSON, Theran;MUELLER, Xander), clock 13:11. PENALTY UMD Holding on ROYE JR., Andre enforced 10 yards from the UMD25 to the UMD15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+7
18.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Preston Howard for 7 yds to the MD 22Similar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+15
17.6%
(12:44) EDWARDS JR., Billy pass to the left incomplete intended for HOWARD, Preston thrown to the UMD30, clock 12:37. PENALTY NW Pass Interference on AZEMA, Coco enforced 15 yards to the UMD37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
18.9%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
50
+27
19.9%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 27 yds to the NU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
21.3%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Kaden Prather for 4 yds to the NU 19Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 6
OPP 19
0
20.9%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:17
3RD & 6
OPP 19
0
20.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:13
4TH & 6
OPP 19
0
18.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 19FG
5 plays · 60 yds · 2:1089% → 93%
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+55
11.0%
Jack Lausch pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 55 yds to the MD 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
9.2%
Joseph Himon II run for 2 yds to the MD 24Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 8
OPP 24
0
8.4%
Jack Lausch pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+3
8.8%
Jack Lausch run for 3 yds to the MD 21Similar
Q4 8:55
4TH & 5
OPP 21
+38
7.1%
Luke Akers 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 20FUMBLE
1 play · 8 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
7.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Preston Howard for 8 yds Preston Howard fumbled, recovered by NU Braden Turner B. Turner return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 21FG
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:2594% → 98%
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
6.3%
Caleb Komolafe run for 2 yds to the MD 31Similar
Q4 8:18
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+11
6.1%
Caleb Komolafe run for 11 yds to the MD 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
5.7%
Caleb Komolafe run for 20 yds Northwestern Penalty, Offensive Holding (Frank Covey IV) to the MD 26Similar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 16
OPP 26
+3
5.5%
Cam Porter run for 3 yds to the MD 23Similar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 13
OPP 23
+2
5.3%
Caleb Komolafe run for 2 yds to the MD 21Similar
Q4 6:33
3RD & 11
OPP 21
0
4.9%
Jack Lausch pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:23
4TH & 11
OPP 21
+38
1.9%
Luke Akers 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 22INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:032% → 2%
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
1.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-33
1.5%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass intercepted Damon Walters return for 33 yds to the MD 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 23TD
3 plays · 20 yds · 1:3598% → 100%
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
1.6%
Cam Porter run for 1 yd to the MD 19Similar
Q4 5:17
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+10
1.3%
Cam Porter run for 10 yds to the MD 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
0.2%
Jake Arthurs run for 9 yds for a TD (Luke Akers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 24DOWNS
12 plays · 58 yds · 2:420% → 0%
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
0.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 8 yds to the MD 33Similar
Q4 4:07
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+15
0.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Kaden Prather for 15 yds to the MD 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
0.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+18
0.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Nolan Ray for 18 yds to the NU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
0.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
0.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:11
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+15
0.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Kaden Prather for 15 yds to the NU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
0.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 4 yds to the NU 15Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 6
OPP 15
-2
0.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for a loss of 2 yards to the NU 17Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 8
OPP 17
0
0.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:48
4TH & 8
OPP 17
0
0.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 25END OF 4TH QUARTER
3 plays · 1 yds · 1:22100% → 100%
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
0.1%
Albert Kunickis III run for 3 yds to the NU 20Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 7
OWN 20
-1
0.1%
(01:08) Kneel down by HILINSKI, Ryan at NW19 (team loss of 1), clock 01:05.Similar
Q4 0:31
3RD & 8
OWN 19
-1
0.1%
(00:31) Kneel down by HILINSKI, Ryan at NW18 (team loss of 1), clock 00:23.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:17
Aidan Hubbard 2 Yd Fumble Return (Luke Akers Kick)
-18.5
TD · Q2 3:22
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)
+8.1
TD · Q2 12:08
Cam Porter run for 3 yds for a TD (Luke Akers KICK)
-7.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com