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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadPUR aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scorePUR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:20 · H.Robertson punts 43 yards to PUR 23, Center-L.Hansen. D.Thieneman returned punt from the PUR 23. Tackled by T.Strain at PUR 22.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:15: J.McCray rushed for 11 yards. TOUCHDOWN. — ILL win probability +1.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
- FG · Q2 5:42: S.Porath 22 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-N.Levy, Holder-B.Boehnlein. — PUR win probability +1.0 pts (now 13%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:00: L.Altmyer pass complete. Catch made by Z.Franklin for 8 yards. TOUCHDOWN. — ILL win probability +4.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:25: L.Altmyer pass complete. Catch made by J.McCray for 6 yards. TOUCHDOWN. — ILL win probability +4.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:57: R.Browne pass complete. Catch made by J.Edrine for 53 yards. TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane and the play was upheld. — PUR win probability +4.0 pts (now 6%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4PUR made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
- Q1 9:58PUR 4th & 1 at ILL 35, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call9.4%71% to convertField goal9.2%−0.245% to makePunt9.1%−0.2average punt
- Q1 6:09ILL 4th & 11 at PUR 12, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.6% before the snapGo for it89.5%−0.122% to convertField goalTheir call89.6%86% to makePunt89.0%−0.6average punt
- Q1 4:42PUR 4th & 1 at PUR 34, down 3Close callPunted · 10.3% before the snapGo for it10.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.3%−0.1average punt
- Q2 13:01PUR 4th & 17 at PUR 41, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snapGo for it9.4%−0.614% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.1%average punt
- Q2 10:20ILL 4th & 12 at ILL 34, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.9% before the snapGo for it88.3%−0.823% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.1%average punt
- Q2 5:42PUR 4th & 4 at ILL 4, down 10Close callKicked a field goal · 11.4% before the snapGo for it11.2%40% to convertField goalTheir call10.9%−0.393% to makePunt8.4%−2.8average punt
- Q3 11:02ILL 4th & 9 at PUR 31, up 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.2% before the snapGo for it97.1%−0.132% to convertField goalTheir call97.1%54% to makePunt96.9%−0.2average punt
- Q3 3:34ILL 4th & 2 at PUR 30, up 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.0%57% to convertField goal95.4%−0.656% to makePunt94.8%−1.2average punt
- Q3 0:52PUR 4th & 6 at ILL 6, down 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.4% before the snapGo for it3.8%−0.231% to convertField goalTheir call4.0%91% to makePunt-0.8%−4.8average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3PUR made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 0:15ILL Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.4%97% to makeGo for two90.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:00ILL Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.9%97% to makeGo for two91.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:25ILL Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.1%97% to makeGo for two97.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:57PUR Touchdown, down 18 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call4.3%97% to makeGo for two4.3%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartPURDrive 1DOWNS10 plays · 38 yds · 5:029% → 10%
Q1 11:38
2ND & 3
OPP 37
0
90.3%
R.Love III rushed for yards. Tackled by T.Cox at ILL 12. PENALTY on PUR-D.Wingfield, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q1 10:34
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+3
90.0%
R.Browne pass complete. Catch made by J.Tibbs for 3 yards. Tackled by R.Meed at ILL 35.Similar
Q1 9:58
4TH & 1
OPP 35
-2
89.9%
R.Browne pass complete. Catch made by J.Edrine for -2 yards. Tackled by T.Cox at ILL 37.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2FG8 plays · 51 yds · 3:4090% → 89%
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
90.0%
L.Altmyer pass complete. Catch made by A.Laughery for 7 yards. Tackled by K.Jenkins at ILL 44.Similar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+41
89.6%
L.Altmyer pass complete. Catch made by C.Dixon for 41 yards. Tackled by D.Thieneman at PUR 11.Similar
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
89.6%
L.Altmyer steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for P.Bryant.Similar
Q1 6:48
3RD & 8
OPP 9
-3
89.3%
L.Altmyer steps back to pass. Sacked at PUR 12 for -3 yards (J.Ojata).Similar
Q1 6:09
4TH & 11
OPP 12
0
89.2%
D.Olano 30 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-L.Hansen, Holder-H.Robertson.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2211% → 11%
Q1 4:42
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+39
89.0%
K.Crimmins punts 39 yards to ILL 27, Center-N.Levy. Fair catch by H.Beatty.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4TD9 plays · 78 yds · 4:2189% → 90%
Q1 3:57
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+16
88.5%
L.Altmyer pass complete. Catch made by Z.Franklin for 16 yards. Tackled by Y.Karlaftis at ILL 41.Similar
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
88.6%
C.Valentine rushed for -2 yards. Tackled by D.Thieneman at ILL 39.Similar
Q1 2:36
2ND & 12
OWN 39
0
88.1%
L.Altmyer steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for H.Beatty.Similar
Q1 2:29
3RD & 12
OWN 39
+29
87.8%
L.Altmyer pass complete. Catch made by P.Bryant for 29 yards. Pushed out of bounds by N.Green at PUR 32.Similar
Q1 0:51
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+18
88.2%
L.Altmyer pass complete. Catch made by P.Bryant for 18 yards. Pushed out of bounds by K.Breedlove at PUR 11.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 2:0911% → 10%
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-11
88.8%
R.Browne steps back to pass. Sacked at PUR 37 for -11 yards (D.Rosiek; T.Edwards).Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 21
OWN 37
0
89.4%
R.Browne steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for M.Klare.Similar
Q2 13:01
4TH & 17
OWN 41
+58
89.6%
K.Crimmins punts 58 yards to ILL 1, Center-N.Levy. H.Beatty returned punt from the ILL 1. Pushed out of bounds by K.Crimmins at ILL 25.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 2:2689% → 88%
Q2 12:11
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
89.0%
L.Altmyer pass complete. Catch made by T.Arkin for 10 yards. Tackled by S.Sillah at ILL 36.Similar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 11
OWN 35
-1
89.0%
L.Altmyer steps back to pass. Sacked at ILL 34 for -1 yards (W.Heldt; K.Jenkins).Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 12
OWN 34
0
88.6%
L.Altmyer steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for Z.Franklin.Similar
Q2 10:20
4TH & 12
OWN 34
+43
88.3%
H.Robertson punts 43 yards to PUR 23, Center-L.Hansen. D.Thieneman returned punt from the PUR 23. Tackled by T.Strain at PUR 22.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 7FG12 plays · 74 yds · 4:3211% → 13%
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
88.9%
PENALTY on PUR-C.Stewart, False Start, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q2 10:11
1ST & 15
OWN 17
+20
88.9%
R.Browne rushed for 20 yards. Pushed out of bounds by T.Cox at PUR 37.Similar
Q2 9:09
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+5
88.3%
PENALTY on PUR-PUR, Illegal Substitution, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q2 9:09
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+7
88.7%
R.Browne pass complete. Catch made by M.Klare for 7 yards. M.Klare ran out of bounds. PENALTY on ILL-T.Cox, Unsportsmanlike Conduct / Defense, 15 yards, accepted.Similar
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+34
88.0%
D.Mockobee rushed for 34 yards. Pushed out of bounds by M.Scott at ILL 4.Similar
Q2 8:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
87.4%
PENALTY on PUR-M.Moussa, False Start, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
87.6%
R.Browne pass complete. Catch made by M.Klare for 1 yards. Tackled by D.Rosiek at ILL 4.Similar
Q2 5:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
86.7%
S.Porath 22 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-N.Levy, Holder-B.Boehnlein.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:4188% → 92%
Q2 5:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+12
87.7%
L.Altmyer pass complete. Catch made by J.McCray for 12 yards. Tackled by A.Stevens at ILL 40. PENALTY on PUR-B.Alisandro, Defensive Holding, 10 yards, declined.Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 4
OWN 46
0
88.4%
L.Altmyer steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for H.Boyer.Similar
Q2 4:11
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+11
88.0%
L.Altmyer pass complete. Catch made by H.Beatty for 11 yards. Tackled by D.Thieneman at PUR 43.Similar
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
88.5%
L.Altmyer pass complete. Catch made by T.Arkin for 15 yards. Tackled by K.Breedlove at PUR 28.Similar
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
88.5%
L.Altmyer pass complete. Catch made by C.Valentine for 15 yards. C.Valentine ran out of bounds.Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+8
92.4%
L.Altmyer pass complete. Catch made by Z.Franklin for 8 yards. TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 9TD6 plays · 25 yds · 1:3093% → 97%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
92.5%
L.Altmyer steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for C.Valentine.Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-10
92.4%
L.Altmyer steps back to pass. Sacked at PUR 35 for -10 yards (W.Heldt).Similar
Q2 1:36
3RD & 20
OPP 35
+27
91.9%
L.Altmyer pass complete. Catch made by Z.Franklin for 27 yards. Tackled by PUR at PUR 8.Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
97.0%
L.Altmyer pass complete. Catch made by J.McCray for 6 yards. TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 10END OF HALF1 play · 9 yds · 0:004% → 4%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11FG9 plays · 44 yds · 3:5897% → 97%
Q3 14:28
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+28
96.8%
L.Altmyer pass complete. Catch made by C.Dixon for 28 yards. Tackled by B.Alisandro at PUR 43.Similar
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
97.3%
L.Altmyer steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for Z.Franklin.Similar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 9
OPP 31
0
97.3%
L.Altmyer steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for Z.Franklin.Similar
Q3 11:02
4TH & 9
OPP 31
+49
97.1%
D.Olano 49 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-L.Hansen, Holder-H.Robertson.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 12TD6 plays · 85 yds · 2:563% → 6%
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+12
97.4%
R.Browne pass complete. Catch made by M.Klare for 12 yards. Pushed out of bounds by T.Rooks at PUR 27.Similar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
97.4%
R.Browne rushed for 3 yards. Tackled by ILL at PUR 35. PENALTY on PUR-M.Klare, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, accepted.Similar
Q3 8:28
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+19
97.7%
R.Browne pass complete. Catch made by J.Tibbs for 19 yards. Tackled by K.Patterson at PUR 47.Similar
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
93.6%
R.Browne pass complete. Catch made by J.Edrine for 53 yards. TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane and the play was upheld.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13DOWNS9 plays · 45 yds · 4:0196% → 96%
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
96.0%
A.Laughery rushed for 10 yards. Tackled by D.Thieneman at PUR 38.Similar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
96.1%
L.Altmyer steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for T.Arkin.Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
96.1%
PENALTY on ILL-M.Priestly, False Start, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 11
OPP 39
+9
96.0%
L.Altmyer pass complete. Catch made by Z.Franklin for 9 yards. Tackled by PUR at PUR 30.Similar
Q3 3:34
4TH & 2
OPP 30
0
95.8%
L.Altmyer steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for C.Valentine.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 14FG7 plays · 64 yds · 2:325% → 5%
Q3 3:02
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+62
95.4%
R.Browne pass complete. Catch made by M.Klare for 62 yards. Tackled by K.Patterson at ILL 7.Similar
Q3 2:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
94.6%
PENALTY on PUR-G.Hartwig, False Start, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q3 1:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
0
94.8%
R.Browne steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for J.Edrine.Similar
Q3 0:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
95.3%
R.Browne steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for J.Edrine.Similar
Q3 0:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
95.5%
S.Porath 24 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-N.Levy, Holder-B.Boehnlein.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:2796% → 97%
PURDrive 16TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:404% → 4%
Q4 12:46
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
96.4%
R.Browne steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for L.Smith.Similar
Q4 12:39
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+11
96.5%
R.Browne pass complete. Catch made by M.Klare for 11 yards. Tackled by S.Coleman at PUR 40.Similar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
96.4%
R.Browne scrambles for 12 yards. Tackled by M.Bailey at ILL 48.Similar
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+40
96.6%
R.Browne pass complete. Catch made by M.Klare for 40 yards. Tackled by T.Strain at ILL 8.Similar
Q4 10:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
96.3%
R.Browne pass complete. Catch made by J.Tibbs for 8 yards. TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17TD12 plays · 75 yds · 5:1797% → 98%
Q4 9:58
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+14
97.2%
L.Altmyer pass complete. Catch made by H.Beatty for 14 yards. Tackled by Y.Karlaftis at ILL 41.Similar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
97.5%
L.Altmyer steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for P.Bryant.Similar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+28
97.5%
L.Altmyer pass complete. Catch made by J.McCray for 28 yards. J.McCray FUMBLES, forced by T.Grant. J.McCray FUMBLES, out of bounds.Similar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
97.6%
C.Valentine rushed for 2 yards. Tackled by B.Alisandro at PUR 25.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 18TD11 plays · 75 yds · 3:262% → 2%
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.0%
R.Browne steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for M.Klare.Similar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.1%
R.Browne pass complete. Catch made by D.Mockobee for 2 yards. Pushed out of bounds by M.Bailey at PUR 27.Similar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
98.0%
R.Browne steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for D.Morrissette.Similar
Q4 3:46
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+22
98.1%
R.Browne pass complete. Catch made by D.Biber for 22 yards. Tackled by M.Scott at ILL 41.Similar
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
97.9%
R.Browne pass complete. Catch made by R.Love III for 6 yards. Pushed out of bounds by M.Bailey at ILL 35.Similar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
97.6%
R.Browne pass complete. Catch made by R.Love III for 3 yards. Tackled by M.Bailey at ILL 18.Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+16
97.6%
R.Browne pass complete. Catch made by D.Mockobee for 16 yards. Tackled by ILL at ILL 2.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 19TD3 plays · 43 yds · 0:412% → 2%
ILLDrive 20FG7 plays · 53 yds · 0:4099% → 99%
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
98.7%
L.Altmyer steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for H.Beatty.Similar
Q4 0:34
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+32
98.6%
L.Altmyer pass complete. Catch made by P.Bryant for 32 yards. Pushed out of bounds by PUR at PUR 41.Similar
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-7
98.8%
L.Altmyer steps back to pass. Sacked at PUR 48 for -7 yards (K.Jenkins). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble and the play was upheld.Similar
Q4 0:19
2ND & 17
OPP 48
0
98.8%
L.Altmyer steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for Z.Franklin.Similar
Q4 0:14
3RD & 17
OPP 48
+28
98.7%
L.Altmyer pass complete. Catch made by H.Beatty for 28 yards. H.Beatty ran out of bounds.Similar
Q4 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
98.8%
L.Altmyer steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for M.Elzy.Similar
Q4 0:02
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+38
98.8%
D.Olano 38 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-L.Hansen, Holder-H.Robertson.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 21TD1 play · 25 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
98.3%
L.Altmyer pass complete. Catch made by P.Bryant for 25 yards. TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:25
L.Altmyer pass complete. Catch made by J.McCray for 6 yards. TOUCHDOWN.
+4.5
TD · Q2 2:00
L.Altmyer pass complete. Catch made by Z.Franklin for 8 yards. TOUCHDOWN.
+4.2
TD · Q3 7:57
R.Browne pass complete. Catch made by J.Edrine for 53 yards. TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane and the play was upheld.
-4