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UCLA

UCLA 11 at Penn State 27

PSU
2024 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2024 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadUCLA aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreUCLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:15 · (00:15) [SG] Kneel down by ALLAR, Drew at PSU46 (team loss of 2), clock 00:07.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:40: Drew Allar run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK) — PSU win probability +1.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:20: Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 5 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK) — PSU win probability +3.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:57: Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK) — PSU win probability +2.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:16: Justyn Martin pass complete to Logan Loya for 1 yd for a TD (Justyn Martin pass to Keegan Jones for Two-Point Conversion) — UCLA win probability +2.5 pts (now 3%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:15: (00:15) [SG] Kneel down by ALLAR, Drew at PSU46 (team loss of 2), clock 00:07. — PSU win probability +2.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5UCLA made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 13:30PSU 4th & 2 at PSU 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:26UCLA 4th & 3 at PSU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    4.8%−0.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    4.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:04UCLA 4th & 1 at PSU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    5.4%−0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    5.0%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:07PSU 4th & 19 at PSU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:20UCLA 4th & 6 at UCLA 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:51UCLA 4th & 7 at PSU 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    6.2%−2.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:38UCLA 4th & 26 at UCLA 3, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%−1.3
    5% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:36PSU 4th & 7 at UCLA 8, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.4%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.6%
    90% to make
    Punt
    89.7%−2.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:28UCLA 4th & 6 at UCLA 29, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:47PSU 4th & 6 at PSU 16, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:19UCLA 4th & 3 at PSU 12, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%−0.1
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%
    86% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−1.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:17PSU 4th & 4 at UCLA 23, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.1%−0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    98.4%−0.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:54UCLA 4th & 2 at PSU 10, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%
    55% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%−0.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UCLA made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q2 6:40PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:20PSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:57PSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 0:16UCLA Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    1.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2298% → 97%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
97.5%
Kaytron Allen run for 5 yds to the PSU 32Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 5
OWN 32
0
97.4%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:08
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+3
97.4%
Drew Allar pass complete to Omari Evans for 3 yds to the PSU 35Similar
Q1 13:30
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
97.3%
Riley Thompson punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 2DOWNS
11 plays · 46 yds · 6:203% → 4%
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
97.3%
T.J. Harden run for 3 yds to the UCLA 33Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+3
97.2%
T.J. Harden run for 3 yds to the UCLA 36Similar
Q1 12:09
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+16
97.1%
Justyn Martin pass complete to Logan Loya for 16 yds to the PSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
97.0%
Justyn Martin pass complete to Logan Loya for 3 yds to the PSU 45Similar
Q1 10:52
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+3
96.9%
Justyn Martin pass complete to Kwazi Gilmer for 3 yds to the PSU 42Similar
Q1 10:08
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+1
96.7%
Justyn Martin pass complete to Keegan Jones for 1 yd to the PSU 41Similar
Q1 9:26
4TH & 3
OPP 41
+9
96.7%
Justyn Martin pass complete to Moliki Matavao for 9 yds to the PSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+5
96.3%
T.J. Harden run for 5 yds to the PSU 27Similar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+4
96.3%
Justyn Martin pass complete to T.J. Harden for 4 yds to the PSU 23Similar
Q1 7:04
4TH & 1
OPP 23
-1
96.2%
T.J. Harden run for a loss of 1 yard to the PSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:5696% → 96%
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
96.3%
Kaytron Allen run for 11 yds to the PSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
96.1%
Tyler Warren run for 5 yds to the PSU 40Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+6
96.2%
Drew Allar pass complete to Quinton Martin Jr. for 6 yds to the PSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
96.1%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
96.0%
Kaytron Allen run for no gain to the PSU 46Similar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 10
OWN 46
-9
95.8%
Drew Allar sacked by Oluwafemi Oladejo for a loss of 9 yards to the PSU 37Similar
Q1 4:07
4TH & 19
OWN 37
0
95.5%
Riley Thompson punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 3:404% → 5%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
95.6%
Jalen Berger run for 4 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
95.4%
Justyn Martin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:16
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-5
95.5%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Niki Prongos) to the UCLA 24Similar
Q1 3:16
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+18
95.6%
Justyn Martin pass complete to Logan Loya for 18 yds to the UCLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
95.0%
Jalen Berger run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 41Similar
Q1 1:54
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+8
94.9%
Justyn Martin pass complete to Moliki Matavao for 8 yds to the UCLA 49Similar
Q1 1:07
3RD & 3
OWN 49
-3
94.6%
Justyn Martin pass complete to T.J. Harden for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 46Similar
Q1 0:20
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
94.6%
Brody Richter punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5TD
18 plays · 82 yds · 8:3695% → 95%
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
94.8%
Kaytron Allen run for 7 yds to the PSU 25Similar
Q2 14:58
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+5
94.8%
Kaytron Allen run for 5 yds to the PSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
94.7%
Kaytron Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the PSU 29Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+5
94.5%
UCLA Penalty, Offsides (Jay Toia) to the PSU 34Similar
Q2 13:48
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+5
94.6%
Beau Pribula run for 5 yds to the PSU 39Similar
Q2 13:06
3RD & 1
OWN 39
-10
94.5%
(13:06) ALLEN, Kaytron rush to the left for a gain of 9 yards to the PSU48 (MOORE, Kaylin), out of bounds, clock 13:01. PENALTY PSU Holding on DAWKINS, Nick enforced 10 yards from the PSU39 to the PSU29 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:46
3RD & 11
OWN 29
+26
94.0%
Drew Allar pass complete to Liam Clifford for 26 yds to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
94.5%
Quinton Martin Jr. run for 1 yd to the UCLA 44Similar
Q2 11:41
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+15
94.3%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 15 yds to the UCLA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
94.3%
Drew Allar pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 7 yds to the UCLA 22Similar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 3
OPP 22
0
94.2%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+3
94.0%
Drew Allar run for 3 yds to the UCLA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
94.0%
Kaytron Allen run for 8 yds to the UCLA 11Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 2
OPP 11
0
93.8%
Kaytron Allen run for no gain to the UCLA 11Similar
Q2 8:34
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+2
93.4%
Drew Allar run for 2 yds to the UCLA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
93.5%
Kaytron Allen run for 6 yds to the UCLA 3Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
93.3%
Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the UCLA 1Similar
Q2 6:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.9%
Drew Allar run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 6FG
8 plays · 68 yds · 3:495% → 8%
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
94.6%
T.J. Harden run for 4 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q2 6:04
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
94.4%
Justyn Martin run for 4 yds to the UCLA 33Similar
Q2 5:22
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
94.2%
Justyn Martin pass complete to T.J. Harden for 4 yds to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+53
94.1%
Justyn Martin pass complete to T.J. Harden for 53 yds to the PSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
93.1%
Jalen Berger run for 3 yds to the PSU 7Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
92.9%
Justyn Martin pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
93.2%
Justyn Martin run for no gain to the PSU 7Similar
Q2 2:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
92.3%
Mateen Bhaghani 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:3192% → 95%
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.0%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
91.9%
Drew Allar pass complete to Khalil Dinkins for 6 yds to the PSU 31Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+24
91.6%
Drew Allar pass complete to Liam Clifford for 24 yds to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
92.4%
Drew Allar pass complete to Julian Fleming for 12 yds to the UCLA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+25
92.7%
Drew Allar pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 25 yds to the UCLA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
92.6%
Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the UCLA 5Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
92.5%
Kaytron Allen run for no gain to the UCLA 5Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
95.0%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 5 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 8END OF HALF
1 play · 14 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
95.0%
T.J. Harden run for 14 yds to the UCLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -16 yds · 2:146% → 6%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-2
94.3%
T.J. Harden run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 17Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 12
OWN 17
0
94.3%
Carter Shaw run for no gain to the UCLA 17Similar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 12
OWN 17
-14
94.4%
Justyn Martin sacked for a loss of 14 yards to the UCLA 3 Justyn Martin fumbled, recovered by UCLA Justyn Martin , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 12:38
4TH & 26
OWN 3
+2
94.5%
Brody Richter punt for 46 yds , Zion Tracy returns for 2 yds to the UCLA 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10FG
8 plays · 39 yds · 4:0095% → 96%
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
94.7%
Kaytron Allen run for 11 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
94.6%
UCLA Penalty, Defensive Holding (Oluwafemi Oladejo) to the UCLA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
94.7%
Kaytron Allen run for 6 yds to the UCLA 20Similar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+9
94.6%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 9 yds to the UCLA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-3
94.5%
Kaytron Allen run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 14Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 13
OPP 14
-1
94.5%
Kaytron Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 15Similar
Q3 9:17
3RD & 14
OPP 15
+7
94.1%
Drew Allar pass complete to Quinton Martin Jr. for 7 yds to the UCLA 8Similar
Q3 8:36
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+25
95.5%
Ryan Barker 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 11PUNT
7 plays · -7 yds · 3:055% → 5%
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
95.0%
Justyn Martin pass complete to Jack Pedersen for 8 yds to the UCLA 33Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-10
94.4%
(08:02) BERGER, Jalen rush up the middle for no gain to the UCLA33 (REED, Jaylen;IZZARD, Coziah), clock 07:58. PENALTY UCLA Holding on YOON, Sam enforced 10 yards from the UCLA33 to the UCLA23 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:42
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+18
95.0%
Jalen Berger run for 18 yds to the UCLA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
94.4%
Justyn Martin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-7
94.6%
Justyn Martin pass complete to Jalen Berger for a loss of 7 yards to the UCLA 34Similar
Q3 6:16
3RD & 17
OWN 34
-16
95.0%
Justyn Martin sacked by Zane Durant and Amin Vanover for a loss of 16 yards to the UCLA 18Similar
Q3 5:31
4TH & 33
OWN 18
+9
95.1%
Brody Richter punt for 49 yds , Zion Tracy returns for 9 yds to the PSU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12TD
5 plays · 58 yds · 2:2696% → 99%
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
96.0%
UCLA Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Kaylin Moore) to the UCLA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
96.2%
Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the UCLA 30Similar
Q3 4:16
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+14
96.2%
Drew Allar pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 14 yds to the UCLA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+15
96.2%
Drew Allar pass complete to Julian Fleming for 15 yds to the UCLA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.8%
Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:291% → 1%
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.6%
Justyn Martin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.7%
Justyn Martin pass complete to Jack Pedersen for 3 yds to the UCLA 28Similar
Q3 2:17
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+1
98.7%
Justyn Martin pass complete to Moliki Matavao for 1 yd to the UCLA 29Similar
Q3 1:28
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
98.8%
Brody Richter punt for 49 yds , Zion Tracy returns for no gain to the PSU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3199% → 99%
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
98.9%
Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the PSU 15Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+1
99.0%
Drew Allar pass complete to Kaytron Allen for 1 yd to the PSU 16Similar
Q4 14:58
3RD & 6
OWN 16
0
99.0%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 6
OWN 16
0
98.9%
punt blocked by Ty Lee blocked by Ty LeeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 15DOWNS
8 plays · 42 yds · 3:171% → 1%
Q4 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
99.0%
Justyn Martin pass complete to T.J. Harden for 1 yd to the UCLA 47Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+12
99.1%
Justyn Martin pass complete to Bryce Pierre for 12 yds to the PSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+22
99.1%
Keegan Jones run for 22 yds to the PSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
99.0%
Keegan Jones run for 3 yds to the PSU 16Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+4
99.0%
Jalen Berger run for 4 yds to the PSU 12Similar
Q4 11:23
3RD & 3
OPP 12
0
99.1%
Justyn Martin pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:19
4TH & 3
OPP 12
0
99.1%
Justyn Martin pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16FG
7 plays · 65 yds · 3:0099% → 99%
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
99.2%
Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the PSU 14Similar
Q4 10:33
2ND & 8
OWN 14
0
99.2%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:30
3RD & 8
OWN 14
+57
99.2%
Drew Allar pass complete to Liam Clifford for 57 yds to the UCLA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.4%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+5
99.3%
Drew Allar pass complete to Quinton Martin Jr. for 5 yds to the UCLA 24Similar
Q4 9:06
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+1
99.4%
Beau Pribula run for 1 yd to the UCLA 23Similar
Q4 8:17
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+40
99.4%
Ryan Barker 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 17TD
19 plays · 73 yds · 7:561% → 3%
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
99.4%
Keegan Jones run for 5 yds to the UCLA 32Similar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+4
99.4%
Keegan Jones run for 4 yds to the UCLA 36Similar
Q4 6:55
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+8
99.5%
Justyn Martin run for 8 yds to the UCLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
99.5%
Justyn Martin pass complete to Logan Loya for 14 yds to the PSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
99.5%
Keegan Jones run for 4 yds to the PSU 38Similar
Q4 4:59
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+9
99.5%
Justyn Martin pass complete to Jalen Berger for 9 yds to the PSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.4%
Justyn Martin pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:12
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+4
99.5%
Justyn Martin pass complete to Keegan Jones for 4 yds to the PSU 25Similar
Q4 3:24
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+7
99.5%
Justyn Martin run for 7 yds to the PSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
99.4%
Jalen Berger run for 3 yds to the PSU 15Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+3
99.4%
Jalen Berger run for 3 yds to the PSU 12Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+2
99.4%
Justyn Martin run for 2 yds to the PSU 10Similar
Q4 1:54
4TH & 2
OPP 10
+5
99.4%
Justyn Martin pass complete to Logan Loya for 5 yds to the PSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
99.3%
Jalen Berger run for 1 yd to the PSU 4Similar
Q4 0:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
99.3%
Jalen Berger run for 3 yds to the PSU 1Similar
Q4 0:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.9%
Justyn Martin pass complete to Logan Loya for 1 yd for a TD (Justyn Martin pass to Keegan Jones for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
99.4%
(00:15) [SG] Kneel down by ALLAR, Drew at PSU46 (team loss of 2), clock 00:07.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:20
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 5 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)
+3.2
TD · Q3 2:57
Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)
+2.6
TD · Q4 0:16
Justyn Martin pass complete to Logan Loya for 1 yd for a TD (Justyn Martin pass to Keegan Jones for Two-Point Conversion)
-2.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com