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Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadPUR aheadconfidence bandkey playWIS scorePUR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:59 · Cade Yacamelli run for 30 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 8:04: Tawee Walker run for 12 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK) — WIS win probability +2.2 pts (now 79%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
- TD · Q1 1:56: Braedyn Locke pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 52 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK) — WIS win probability +4.0 pts (now 84%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
- FG · Q2 8:41: Spencer Porath 21 yd FG GOOD — PUR win probability +2.2 pts (now 19%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:09: Tawee Walker run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK) — WIS win probability +5.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:14: Braedyn Locke pass complete to Trech Kekahuna for 69 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK) — WIS win probability +7.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 4PUR made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
- Q1 12:17PUR 4th & 7 at PUR 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 21.5% before the snapGo for it21.5%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.6%average punt
- Q1 11:50WIS 4th & 10 at WIS 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 78.1% before the snapGo for it78.1%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call78.2%average punt
- Q1 10:31PUR 4th & 2 at PUR 36, tiedClose callPunted · 22.0% before the snapGo for it22.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 8:18WIS 4th & 4 at WIS 40, tiedClose callPunted · 77.1% before the snapGo for it77.2%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 4:31PUR 4th & 1 at PUR 46, down 7Close callPunted · 21.2% before the snapGo for it21.3%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.0%−0.3average punt
- Q1 0:17PUR 4th & 12 at PUR 23, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.4% before the snapGo for it16.9%−1.122% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.0%average punt
- Q2 8:41PUR 4th & 3 at WIS 3, down 14Close callKicked a field goal · 17.0% before the snapGo for it17.4%44% to convertField goalTheir call16.6%−0.893% to makePunt12.3%−5.1average punt
- Q2 3:27PUR 4th & 5 at WIS 5, down 11Close callKicked a field goal · 17.7% before the snapGo for it17.3%33% to convertField goalTheir call17.3%−<0.192% to makePunt14.5%−2.9average punt
- Q3 9:18PUR 4th & 9 at PUR 47, down 22Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snapGo for it4.0%−0.532% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.5%average punt
- Q3 4:02PUR 4th & 5 at PUR 30, down 29Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q4 13:27PUR 4th & 7 at PUR 30, down 36Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 10:59WIS 4th & 1 at PUR 30, up 36Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%71% to convertField goal99.7%−0.256% to makePunt99.6%−0.3average punt
- Q4 6:15WIS 4th & 9 at PUR 9, up 43Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.125% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%89% to makePunt99.4%−0.4average punt
- Q4 2:48PUR 4th & 12 at PUR 34, down 46Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 8:04WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.8%97% to makeGo for two78.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:56WIS Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.1%97% to makeGo for two82.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:09WIS Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.8%97% to makeGo for two87.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:14WIS Touchdown, up 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.6%97% to makeGo for two95.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:42WIS Touchdown, up 28 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:12WIS Touchdown, up 35 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:59WIS Touchdown, up 42 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartPURDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 2:3121% → 22%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
78.7%
Hudson Card pass complete to De'Nylon Morrissette for 13 yds to the PUR 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 7
OWN 41
-10
78.3%
(13:23) CARD, Hudson pass short to the right complete for 4 yards to KLARE, Max caught at the PUR45 and advanced to the PUR45 (PETERSON, Darryl), clock 13:31. PENALTY PUR Holding on STEWART, Corey enforced 10 yards from the PUR41 to the PUR31 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 12:17
4TH & 7
OWN 41
+9
78.2%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 45 yds , Tyrell Henry returns for 9 yds to the WIS 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1878% → 78%
Q1 11:50
4TH & 10
OWN 23
+47
77.8%
Atticus Bertrams punt for 47 yds , Dillon Thieneman returns for no gain to the PUR 28 , returns for no gain to the PUR 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3222% → 23%
WISDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 2:1478% → 77%
WISDrive 5TD1 play · 12 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 21 yds · 3:2021% → 22%
Q1 4:31
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
78.5%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Tyrell Henry at the WIS 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 7TD8 plays · 91 yds · 2:4279% → 84%
Q1 3:13
3RD & 5
OWN 14
+5
78.5%
(03:13) LOCKE, Braedyn pass short up the middle incomplete intended for PAULING, Will thrown to the WIS18, clock 03:22. PENALTY PUR Pass Interference on BREEDLOVE, Kyndrich enforced at the spot of the foul for 5 yards to the WIS19 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
78.9%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Riley Nowakowski for 6 yds to the WIS 25Similar
Q1 2:52
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+15
79.0%
Purdue Penalty, Personal Foul (Jeffrey M'Ba) to the WIS 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
79.7%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Trech Kekahuna for 5 yds to the WIS 48Similar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+52
83.7%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 52 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 8PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 1:2618% → 17%
WISDrive 9INT3 plays · 3 yds · 0:3084% → 84%
PURDrive 10FG11 plays · 42 yds · 6:0818% → 19%
Q2 13:54
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+15
82.4%
Hudson Card pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 15 yds to the WIS 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:26
3RD & 13
OPP 29
+10
83.6%
(11:26) CARD, Hudson pass to the right incomplete intended for LOVE III, Reggie thrown to the WIS23, clock 11:30. PENALTY WIS Holding on LOFY, Max enforced 10 yards from the WIS29 to the WIS19 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+10
82.4%
Hudson Card pass complete to Jaron Tibbs for 10 yds to the WIS 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 11INT6 plays · 20 yds · 1:4083% → 82%
PURDrive 12FG8 plays · 46 yds · 3:2119% → 22%
WISDrive 13TD12 plays · 75 yds · 3:0780% → 89%
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
80.3%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Trech Kekahuna for 21 yds to the WIS 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
81.8%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Trech Kekahuna for 7 yds to the PUR 47Similar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+19
88.6%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to C.J. Williams for 19 yds to the PUR 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 14END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
86.8%
[SG] Kneel down by CARD, Hudson at PUR17 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 15TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3388% → 96%
Q3 14:18
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
88.4%
(14:18) LOCKE, Braedyn pass short to the left incomplete thrown to the WIS27, clock 14:25. PENALTY WIS Intentional Grounding on LOCKE, Braedyn PUR Holding on BREEDLOVE, Kyndrich , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
88.2%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to C.J. Williams for 8 yds to the WIS 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-15
88.9%
(13:17) WALKER, Tawee rush up the middle for no gain to the WIS39 (KARLAFTIS, Yanni), clock 13:15. PENALTY WIS Block below the waist on NELSON, Jack enforced 15 yards from the WIS39 to the WIS24 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:17
1ST & 25
OWN 24
+7
88.5%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Trech Kekahuna for 7 yds to the WIS 31Similar
Q3 12:14
2ND & 18
OWN 31
+69
95.5%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Trech Kekahuna for 69 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 16PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 2:445% → 4%
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
95.0%
Hudson Card pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 11 yds to the PUR 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
95.1%
(11:28) CARD, Hudson pass short to the left complete for 3 yards to TIBBS, Jaron caught at the PUR47 and advanced to the PUR49 (ZACHMAN, Preston), clock 11:35. PENALTY PUR Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on MOUSSA, Mahamane enforced 5 yards from the PUR46 to the PUR41 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 15
OWN 41
-7
95.6%
Hudson Card sacked by Jaheim Thomas for a loss of 7 yards to the PUR 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 17TD12 plays · 98 yds · 4:2497% → 100%
Q3 7:57
3RD & 4
OWN 8
+5
96.5%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to C.J. Williams for 5 yds to the WIS 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+28
96.8%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to C.J. Williams for 28 yds to the WIS 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 18
OWN 37
+5
97.0%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Darrion Dupree for 5 yds to the WIS 42Similar
Q3 5:14
3RD & 13
OWN 42
+18
97.3%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Darrion Dupree for 18 yds to the PUR 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
97.4%
(04:55) LOCKE, Braedyn pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for BURROUGHS, Quincy thrown to the PUR1, clock 04:48. PENALTY PUR Pass Interference on GREEN, Nyland enforced 15 yards to the PUR25 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
99.7%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Trech Kekahuna for 25 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:340% → 0%
Q3 4:02
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+50
99.8%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 50 yds , Vinny Anthony II returns for no gain to the WIS 22 , returns for no gain to the WIS 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 19TD9 plays · 78 yds · 3:29100% → 100%
Q3 3:05
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+17
99.7%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Cade Yacamelli for 17 yds to the WIS 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+15
99.8%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Riley Nowakowski for 15 yds to the PUR 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+14
99.8%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 14 yds to the PUR 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 15 yds · 1:330% → 0%
WISDrive 21TD5 plays · 60 yds · 2:22100% → 100%
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+21
99.8%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to JT Seagreaves for 21 yds to the PUR 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 22FUMBLE1 play · 35 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+35
100.0%
Jaheim Merriweather run for 35 yds to the WIS 40 Jaheim Merriweather fumbled, recovered by WIS Braedyn Moore B. Moore return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 23FG7 plays · 51 yds · 4:20100% → 100%
Q4 9:55
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+2
99.9%
Mabrey Mettauer pass complete to Jackson McGohan for 2 yds to the WIS 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 24PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 3:270% → 0%
WISDrive 25END OF GAME5 plays · 22 yds · 2:09100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:14
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Trech Kekahuna for 69 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)
+7
TD · Q2 0:09
Tawee Walker run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)
+5.4
TD · Q1 1:56
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 52 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)
+4