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Win probability · NEB
modelNEB aheadRUTG aheadconfidence bandkey playNEB scoreRUTG score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:41 · T.Ward rushed for 0 yards. Tackled by NEB at NEB 25.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q2 6:13: K.Monangai rushed for 2 yards. Tackled by NEB at NEB 41. — RUTG win probability +4.3 pts (now 28%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:53: J.Bonner rushed for 11 yards. TOUCHDOWN. — NEB win probability +7.4 pts (now 85%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 7:48: A.Kaliakmanis pass complete. Catch made by K.Duff for 9 yards. Tackled by NEB at NEB 41. — RUTG win probability +4.0 pts (now 9%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q4 4:15: A.Kaliakmanis pass complete. Catch made by B.Black for 11 yards. TOUCHDOWN. — RUTG win probability +14.0 pts (now 20%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 2:17: A.Kaliakmanis steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for C.Long. — NEB win probability +7.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
NEB made the numbers' call on 7 of 8RUTG made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
- Q1 13:44NEB 4th & 1 at NEB 36, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call67.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt67.3%−0.1average punt
- Q1 10:13NEB 4th & 11 at RUTG 44, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 66.9% before the snapGo for it66.9%−0.127% to convertField goal66.8%−0.127% to makePuntTheir call67.0%average punt
- Q1 6:41RUTG 4th & 4 at NEB 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call33.9%47% to convertField goal33.8%−0.166% to makePunt32.8%−1.2average punt
- Q1 3:11NEB 4th & 1 at RUTG 1, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call66.2%59% to convertField goal65.5%−0.794% to makePunt63.6%−2.6average punt
- Q2 14:22RUTG 4th & 8 at NEB 43, down 7Close callPunted · 29.8% before the snapGo for it29.9%34% to convertField goal29.5%−0.428% to makePuntTheir call29.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 10:31RUTG 4th & 15 at NEB 34, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.4% before the snapGo for it27.4%−0.817% to convertField goalTheir call28.2%47% to makePunt27.8%−0.4average punt
- Q2 4:28RUTG 4th & 3 at NEB 36, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call28.5%53% to convertField goal27.1%−1.342% to makePunt26.6%−1.9average punt
- Q3 12:00RUTG 4th & 8 at NEB 45, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.9% before the snapGo for it16.0%−0.234% to convertField goal15.1%−1.225% to makePuntTheir call16.3%average punt
- Q3 7:57NEB 4th & 10 at NEB 28, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.6% before the snapGo for it86.2%−1.628% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.7%average punt
- Q3 5:03RUTG 4th & 2 at NEB 2, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call14.9%48% to convertField goal13.1%−1.894% to makePunt5.5%−9.4average punt
- Q3 4:10NEB 4th & 9 at NEB 3, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.1% before the snapGo for it87.2%−2.327% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.5%average punt
- Q4 14:47NEB 4th & 8 at NEB 33, up 14Numbers favored punt by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 92.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call92.2%−1.233% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt93.4%average punt
- Q4 11:53NEB 4th & 19 at RUTG 46, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.6% before the snapGo for it92.6%−1.811% to convertField goal93.2%−1.323% to makePuntTheir call94.5%average punt
- Q4 9:31RUTG 4th & 10 at NEB 45, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snapGo for it6.7%−<0.130% to convertField goal6.2%−0.525% to makePuntTheir call6.7%average punt
- Q4 7:54NEB 4th & 6 at NEB 7, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.1% before the snapGo for it94.4%−0.637% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.0%average punt
- Q4 5:26RUTG 4th & 1 at NEB 24, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.3%71% to convertField goal5.4%−1.068% to makePunt2.7%−3.6average punt
- Q4 1:40RUTG 4th & 4 at RUTG 17, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.8%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt5.5%−2.3average punt
- Q4 1:22RUTG 4th & 10 at RUTG 26, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.5%28% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt5.2%−1.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEB made the numbers' call on 2 of 2RUTG made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
- Q1 3:11NEB Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.4%97% to makeGo for two69.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:53NEB Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.0%97% to makeGo for two81.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:15RUTG Touchdown, down 8 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call7.6%−0.797% to makeGo for two8.3%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartNEBDrive 1BLOCKED PUNT13 plays · 29 yds · 4:4470% → 69%
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
70.1%
D.Raiola steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for J.Banks.Similar
Q1 14:21
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+7
70.0%
D.Raiola pass complete. Catch made by E.Johnson for 7 yards. Tackled by RUT at NEB 36.Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+4
70.0%
D.Raiola pass complete. Catch made by T.Fidone for 4 yards. Tackled by RUT at NEB 46.Similar
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
70.0%
D.Raiola pass complete. Catch made by D.Dowdell for -1 yards. Tackled by RUT at RUT 44.Similar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 11
OPP 44
0
69.9%
D.Raiola steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for E.Johnson.Similar
Q1 10:13
4TH & 11
OPP 44
+10
69.3%
B.Buschini punts 10 yards to RUT 34, Center-C.Witucki. F.Dixon blocked the kick. F.Dixon recovered the blocked kick. Tackled by NEB at RUT 34.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 2DOWNS8 plays · 41 yds · 3:2631% → 32%
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
69.2%
A.Kaliakmanis steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for K.Fletcher.Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 11
OPP 32
+7
67.9%
A.Kaliakmanis pass complete. Catch made by C.Long for 7 yards. Tackled by NEB at NEB 25.Similar
Q1 6:47
3RD & 4
OPP 25
0
67.9%
A.Kaliakmanis steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for C.Long.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 3TD7 plays · 75 yds · 3:2669% → 72%
Q1 6:04
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+28
68.6%
D.Raiola pass complete. Catch made by J.Barney for 28 yards. Tackled by RUT at RUT 45.Similar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+36
69.5%
D.Raiola pass complete. Catch made by R.Johnson for 36 yards. Tackled by RUT at RUT 9.Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
69.6%
D.Raiola steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for J.Banks.Similar
Q1 3:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
69.2%
D.Raiola pass complete. Catch made by T.Fidone for 4 yards. Tackled by RUT at RUT 1. The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain and the play was upheld.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 4PUNT11 plays · 32 yds · 3:4728% → 28%
RUTGDrive 5MISSED FG10 plays · 42 yds · 2:5228% → 27%
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
72.2%
A.Kaliakmanis pass complete. Catch made by K.Duff for 15 yards. Tackled by NEB at RUT 39.Similar
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+18
71.5%
A.Kaliakmanis pass complete. Catch made by D.Miller for 18 yards. Pushed out of bounds by NEB at NEB 43.Similar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 5
OPP 38
0
70.6%
A.Kaliakmanis steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for C.Long.Similar
Q2 11:22
3RD & 5
OPP 38
0
71.0%
A.Kaliakmanis steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for D.Miller. PENALTY on NEB-M.Buford, Defensive Holding, 9 yards, accepted. No Play. The Replay Official reviewed the targeting and the play was upheld.Similar
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
69.9%
A.Kaliakmanis pass complete. Catch made by K.Fletcher for 0 yards. Tackled by NEB at NEB 29.Similar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
70.1%
A.Kaliakmanis steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for C.Long.Similar
Q2 10:37
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
71.0%
PENALTY on RUT-T.Needham, False Start, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q2 10:37
3RD & 15
OPP 34
0
72.2%
A.Kaliakmanis steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for D.Miller.Similar
Q2 10:31
4TH & 15
OPP 34
0
73.2%
J.Patel 52 yard field goal attempt is no good, Center-A.Riggs, Holder-J.Anderson.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 6INT9 plays · 27 yds · 4:0673% → 76%
Q2 6:21
2ND & 9
OPP 39
0
76.0%
D.Raiola pass INTERCEPTED at RUT 34. Intercepted by F.Dixon at RUT 34. Tackled by NEB at NEB 43.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 7INT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4528% → 27%
Q2 5:35
2ND & 8
OPP 41
-9
71.8%
A.Kaliakmanis steps back to pass. Sacked at NEB 50 for -9 yards (T.Robinson).Similar
Q2 4:57
3RD & 17
OPP 0
+14
72.7%
A.Kaliakmanis pass complete. Catch made by K.Monangai for 14 yards. Tackled by NEB at NEB 36.Similar
Q2 4:28
4TH & 3
OPP 36
0
73.0%
A.Kaliakmanis pass INTERCEPTED at NEB 24. Intercepted by M.Buford at NEB 24. Tackled by RUT at NEB 28.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 8TD9 plays · 72 yds · 2:2775% → 85%
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+31
76.1%
D.Raiola pass complete. Catch made by J.Banks for 31 yards. Pushed out of bounds by RUT at RUT 30.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 9INT5 plays · 22 yds · 0:4318% → 18%
RUTGDrive 10PUNT8 plays · 30 yds · 3:0016% → 15%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.0%
A.Kaliakmanis steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for K.Fletcher.Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+17
84.1%
A.Kaliakmanis pass complete. Catch made by D.Miller for 17 yards. Pushed out of bounds by NEB at RUT 42.Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+10
83.6%
A.Kaliakmanis pass complete. Catch made by I.Strong for 10 yards. Pushed out of bounds by NEB at NEB 47.Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 8
OPP 45
0
83.5%
A.Kaliakmanis steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for K.Monangai.Similar
Q3 12:04
3RD & 8
OPP 45
0
83.9%
A.Kaliakmanis steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for I.Strong.Similar
Q3 12:00
4TH & 8
OPP 45
+43
84.8%
J.Anderson punts 43 yards to NEB 2, Center-A.Riggs. Downed by E.Rogers.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 11BLOCKED PUNT9 plays · 26 yds · 3:5286% → 87%
Q3 10:01
3RD & 10
OWN 14
+14
86.8%
D.Raiola pass complete. Catch made by J.Lloyd for 14 yards. Tackled by RUT at NEB 28.Similar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 5
OWN 33
0
87.9%
D.Raiola steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for J.Barney.Similar
Q3 7:57
4TH & 5
OWN 33
+5
87.4%
PENALTY on NEB-B.Buschini, Delay of Game, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q3 7:57
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
87.2%
B.Buschini punts yards to NEB 28, Center-C.Witucki. J.Wright-Collins blocked the kick. S.Loyal recovered the blocked kick. Tackled by NEB at NEB 2.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 12DOWNS7 plays · 0 yds · 2:4717% → 14%
Q3 7:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
83.7%
A.Kaliakmanis steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for D.Miller. PENALTY on NEB-D.Singleton, Defensive Holding, 3 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q3 5:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
85.0%
A.Kaliakmanis pass complete. Catch made by K.Fletcher for -1 yards. Tackled by NEB at NEB 2.Similar
Q3 5:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
86.0%
A.Kaliakmanis steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for C.Long.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4990% → 89%
Q3 4:10
4TH & 9
OWN 3
+37
89.4%
B.Buschini punts 37 yards to NEB 40, Center-C.Witucki. C.Dremel returned punt from the NEB 40. Tackled by NEB at NEB 28.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 14PUNT12 plays · 34 yds · 4:5293% → 94%
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
92.5%
D.Raiola steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for J.Bonner.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
93.6%
D.Raiola steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for I.Neyor.Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 8
OWN 33
0
93.4%
D.Raiola steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for E.Johnson.Similar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 8
OWN 33
+30
92.8%
B.Buschini pass complete. Catch made by J.Lloyd for 30 yards. Tackled by RUT at RUT 37.Similar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-4
94.2%
D.Raiola steps back to pass. Sacked at RUT 41 for -4 yards (J.Thompson).Similar
Q4 13:18
2ND & 14
OPP 41
0
94.2%
D.Raiola pass complete. Catch made by J.Barney for 0 yards. Tackled by RUT at RUT 41.Similar
Q4 12:34
3RD & 14
OPP 41
-5
94.1%
D.Raiola steps back to pass. Sacked at RUT 46 for -5 yards (A.Lewis).Similar
Q4 11:53
4TH & 19
OPP 46
+41
93.8%
B.Buschini punts 41 yards to RUT 5, Center-C.Witucki. Out of bounds.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 15PUNT9 plays · 50 yds · 2:138% → 8%
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
92.2%
A.Kaliakmanis steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for K.Duff.Similar
Q4 11:36
2ND & 10
OWN 5
0
92.2%
A.Kaliakmanis steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for D.Miller. PENALTY on RUT-T.White, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, declined.Similar
Q4 11:36
3RD & 10
OWN 5
+3
92.4%
PENALTY on RUT-H.Pierce, False Start, 3 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q4 11:36
3RD & 13
OWN 2
+43
92.4%
A.Kaliakmanis pass complete. Catch made by B.Black for 43 yards. Pushed out of bounds by NEB at RUT 45.Similar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
91.1%
A.Kaliakmanis steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for K.Duff. PENALTY on NEB-M.Buford, Defensive Holding, 10 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 5
OPP 40
0
91.0%
A.Kaliakmanis steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for B.Black.Similar
Q4 10:12
3RD & 5
OPP 40
-5
91.7%
A.Kaliakmanis steps back to pass. Sacked at NEB 45 for -5 yards (J.Williams).Similar
Q4 9:31
4TH & 10
OPP 45
+42
92.2%
J.Anderson punts 42 yards to NEB 3, Center-A.Riggs. Downed by RUT.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2695% → 95%
Q4 7:54
4TH & 6
OWN 7
+43
95.2%
B.Buschini punts 43 yards to NEB 50, Center-C.Witucki. Fair catch by C.Dremel.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 17TD9 plays · 50 yds · 3:339% → 20%
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 0
+9
91.2%
A.Kaliakmanis pass complete. Catch made by K.Duff for 9 yards. Tackled by NEB at NEB 41.Similar
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
92.3%
A.Kaliakmanis pass complete. Catch made by K.Monangai for 4 yards. Tackled by NEB at NEB 29.Similar
Q4 6:02
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+2
93.0%
K.Monangai rushed for 2 yards. Tackled by NEB at NEB 24. The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain and the play was upheld.Similar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
92.9%
A.Kaliakmanis pass complete. Catch made by C.Long for 11 yards. Pushed out of bounds by NEB at NEB 11.Similar
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
94.1%
A.Kaliakmanis steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for K.Duff.Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
80.1%
A.Kaliakmanis pass complete. Catch made by B.Black for 11 yards. TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 18DOWNS10 plays · 15 yds · 0:5512% → 10%
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
87.9%
A.Kaliakmanis steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for C.Long.Similar
Q4 1:40
4TH & 4
OWN 17
+9
90.4%
A.Kaliakmanis pass complete. Catch made by K.Fletcher for 9 yards. Tackled by NEB at RUT 26.Similar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
88.6%
A.Kaliakmanis steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for D.Miller.Similar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
89.1%
A.Kaliakmanis steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for C.Long.Similar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 10
OWN 26
0
89.8%
A.Kaliakmanis steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for B.Black.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:15
A.Kaliakmanis pass complete. Catch made by B.Black for 11 yards. TOUCHDOWN.
-14
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+9.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:17
A.Kaliakmanis steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for C.Long.
+7.8