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Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scoreUSC score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:05 · Dragan Kesich 32 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 0:00: Michael Lantz 54 yd FG GOOD — USC win probability +10.4 pts (now 63%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:47: Woody Marks run for 1 yd for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK) — USC win probability +15.3 pts (now 78%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
- TD · Q4 7:08: Max Brosmer run for 5 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK) — MINN win probability +31.4 pts (now 61%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:56: Max Brosmer run for 1 yd for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK) — MINN win probability +32.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 0:09: Timeout Minnesota, clock 00:09 — MINN win probability +15.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 4 of 6USC made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q1 9:25USC 4th & 5 at MINN 30, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 68.3% before the snapGo for it68.3%41% to convertField goalTheir call68.3%−<0.156% to makePunt68.1%−0.2average punt
- Q1 6:49MINN 4th & 7 at USC 46, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 32.9% before the snapGo for it33.0%−<0.137% to convertField goal32.8%−0.323% to makePuntTheir call33.0%average punt
- Q1 5:32USC 4th & 7 at USC 13, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 65.9% before the snapGo for it65.8%−0.335% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.1%average punt
- Q1 0:05MINN 4th & 2 at USC 14, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 36.9% before the snapGo for it36.8%56% to convertField goalTheir call36.5%−0.284% to makePunt34.5%−2.3average punt
- Q3 12:59MINN 4th & 7 at USC 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 44.3% before the snapGo for it44.6%−0.237% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.8%average punt
- Q3 2:00MINN 4th & 2 at MINN 42, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call30.5%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt29.4%−1.1average punt
- Q4 14:54MINN 4th & 8 at USC 37, down 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 27.7% before the snapGo for it28.2%35% to convertField goal27.6%−0.640% to makePuntTheir call27.1%−1.1average punt
- Q4 6:21USC 4th & 4 at USC 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 49.0% before the snapGo for it48.3%−3.448% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call51.7%average punt
- Q4 0:56MINN 4th & 1 at USC 1, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call58.0%59% to convertField goal44.3%−13.794% to makePunt6.7%−51.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3USC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q2 7:13USC Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.0%97% to makeGo for two65.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:05MINN Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call45.4%97% to makeGo for two45.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:47USC Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.8%97% to makeGo for two69.6%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 7:08MINN Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call46.6%97% to makeGo for two45.7%−1.045% to convert
- Q4 0:56MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.7%97% to makeGo for two86.8%−2.045% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUSCDrive 1MISSED FG11 plays · 45 yds · 5:3571% → 69%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
29.0%
Miller Moss pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 6 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
29.2%
Miller Moss pass complete to Woody Marks for no gain to the USC 31Similar
Q1 13:53
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
29.5%
Miller Moss pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 7 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:48
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+5
29.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 5 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 4
OPP 29
-1
30.6%
Miller Moss pass complete to Zachariah Branch for a loss of 1 yard to the MINN 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 2PUNT6 plays · 24 yds · 2:3632% → 33%
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
31.7%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Darius Taylor for 4 yds to the MINN 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0867% → 66%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 4FG10 plays · 49 yds · 5:1734% → 37%
Q1 4:48
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+10
34.3%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5TD16 plays · 75 yds · 7:5263% → 69%
Q2 12:47
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+12
37.0%
Miller Moss pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 12 yds to the MINN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+6
36.6%
Miller Moss pass complete to Duce Robinson for 6 yds to the MINN 26Similar
Q2 8:51
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+3
38.6%
Miller Moss pass complete to Makai Lemon for 3 yds to the MINN 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
31.5%
Miller Moss pass complete to Duce Robinson for 3 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 6TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0834% → 47%
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
34.3%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 10 yds to the MINN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+40
36.9%
Darius Taylor run for 40 yds to the USC 18 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Face mask (0 yards) (Mason Cobb) to the USC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
38.6%
(05:15) BROSMER, Max pass to the right incomplete intended for JACKSON, Daniel thrown to the USC0, clock 05:11. PENALTY USC Offsides on COVINGTON, Jacobe declined USC Pass Interference on COVINGTON, Jacobe enforced 5 yards to the USC2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
37.8%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Cristian Driver for 6 yds to the USC 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7FUMBLE5 plays · 49 yds · 2:0556% → 58%
Q2 3:25
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+18
45.7%
Miller Moss pass complete to Makai Lemon for 18 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+21
41.6%
Quinten Joyner run for 21 yds to the MINN 26 Quinten Joyner fumbled, recovered by MINN Ethan Robinson E. Robinson return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 8FUMBLE6 plays · 27 yds · 1:1446% → 51%
Q2 1:10
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+5
48.1%
(01:10) QB Keeper BROSMER, Max rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the MINN36 (CLIFTON, Nate), clock 01:08. PENALTY USC Offsides on MUHAMMAD, Jamil enforced 5 yards from the MINN35 to the MINN40 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+8
50.6%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Darius Taylor for 8 yds Darius Taylor fumbled, recovered by USC Nate Clifton N. Clifton return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9FG7 plays · 16 yds · 0:2654% → 63%
MINNDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 28 yds · 2:0144% → 44%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
43.6%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Marcus Major for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11TD13 plays · 91 yds · 6:5658% → 78%
Q3 12:17
2ND & 4
OWN 15
+15
41.4%
Miller Moss pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 15 yds to the USC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+7
40.0%
Miller Moss pass complete to Woody Marks for 7 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+14
38.8%
Miller Moss pass complete to Duce Robinson for 14 yds to the MINN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
38.3%
Miller Moss pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 7 yds to the MINN 33Similar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
36.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 7 yds to the MINN 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 12PUNT14 plays · 45 yds · 5:4728% → 27%
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
27.9%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 6 yds to the MINN 24Similar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-6
28.3%
Max Brosmer sacked by Devan Thompkins for a loss of 6 yards to the MINN 28Similar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 16
OWN 28
+14
27.1%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Darius Taylor for 14 yds to the MINN 42Similar
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
30.5%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Darius Taylor for 8 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q3 0:53
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+9
32.2%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Marcus Major for 9 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13INT9 plays · 61 yds · 4:3076% → 84%
Q4 12:42
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+10
19.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Kyle Ford for 10 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
18.6%
Minnesota Penalty, Personal Foul (Darnell Jefferies) to the MINN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:17
3RD & 4
OPP 35
0
15.7%
Miller Moss pass intercepted Devon Williams return for no gain to the MINN 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 14TD7 plays · 65 yds · 3:0323% → 61%
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+22
23.4%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Darius Taylor for 22 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-6
30.0%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 10 yds to the USC 14 Minnesota Penalty, Offensive Holding (Le'Meke Brockington) to the USC 30Similar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 16
OPP 30
+5
28.9%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Jameson Geers for 5 yds to the USC 25Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+15
29.4%
(07:57) BROSMER, Max pass deep to the left incomplete intended for JACKSON, Daniel broken up by SMITH, Jaylin at the USC3, clock 07:52. PENALTY USC Pass Interference on SMITH, Jaylin enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards to the USC10 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4653% → 51%
MINNDrive 16TD17 plays · 75 yds · 5:1554% → 98%
USCDrive 17INT8 plays · 47 yds · 0:427% → 17%
Q4 0:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
93.1%
Minnesota Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (TEAM) to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
91.8%
Miller Moss pass complete to Duce Robinson for 16 yds to the MINN 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:21
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+16
91.4%
Miller Moss pass complete to Makai Lemon for 16 yds to the MINN 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
83.0%
Minnesota Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Devon Williams) for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 18END OF GAME1 play · -2 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
98.4%
(00:07) [NH] Kneel down by BROSMER, Max at MINN8 (team loss of 2), clock 00:01.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:56
Max Brosmer run for 1 yd for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)
+32.1
TD · Q4 7:08
Max Brosmer run for 5 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)
+31.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:09
Timeout Minnesota, clock 00:09
+15.4