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MICH

Michigan 17 at Washington 27

WASH
2024 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2024 · Husky Stadium
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Win probability · WASH
modelWASH aheadMICH aheadconfidence bandkey playWASH scoreMICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:27 · Jack McCallister punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MICH 41 , Tyler Morris returns for 14 yds to the MICH 42 Michigan Penalty, Offensive Holding (Josaiah Stewart) to the MICH 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingBlowout margin
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 64Home team on offense+5.6Garbage-time factor+1.7Score differential+1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2Blowout margin−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:38: Will Rogers pass complete to Giles Jackson for 16 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK) — WASH win probability +9.3 pts (now 73%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:25: Donovan Edwards run for 39 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK) — MICH win probability +9.0 pts (now 38%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:38: Jack Tuttle pass complete to Colston Loveland for 8 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK) — MICH win probability +17.1 pts (now 60%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 13:38: Grady Gross 28 yd FG GOOD — WASH win probability +9.5 pts (now 57%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:22: Jonah Coleman run for 1 yd for a TD (Grady Gross KICK) — WASH win probability +24.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WASH made the numbers' call on 5 of 7MICH made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 12:03WASH 4th & 5 at MICH 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.0%
    68% to make
    Punt
    55.6%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:54MICH 4th & 4 at WASH 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    44.1%−0.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:05MICH 4th & 8 at MICH 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:51WASH 4th & 2 at WASH 37, up 7
    Close callPunted · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.5%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:54MICH 4th & 7 at MICH 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:27WASH 4th & 7 at WASH 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.0%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:27WASH 4th & 7 at WASH 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.0%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:49MICH 4th & 3 at WASH 27, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.6%−0.6
    62% to make
    Punt
    28.5%−5.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:29WASH 4th & 5 at MICH 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:38MICH 4th & 9 at MICH 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%−3.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:38WASH 4th & 11 at MICH 11, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%−2.8
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.0%
    87% to make
    Punt
    34.3%−13.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:04MICH 4th & 6 at MICH 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%−1.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:12MICH 4th & 1 at MICH 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.3%−4.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:06WASH 4th & 1 at MICH 15, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.6%−0.4
    83% to make
    Punt
    92.8%−2.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WASH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MICH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 2:38WASH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:38WASH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:25MICH Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:38MICH Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:22WASH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.3%−1.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WASHDrive 1MISSED FG
7 plays · 51 yds · 2:4651% → 52%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+36
51.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Denzel Boston for 36 yds to the MICH 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
51.1%
Jonah Coleman run for 10 yds to the MICH 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
51.4%
Jonah Coleman run for 1 yd to the MICH 28Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 9
OPP 28
0
51.6%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:39
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+4
51.6%
Jeremiah Hunter run for 4 yds to the MICH 24Similar
Q1 12:03
4TH & 5
OPP 24
+41
51.7%
Grady Gross 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2PUNT
12 plays · 31 yds · 4:0149% → 48%
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
51.4%
Kalel Mullings run for 7 yds to the MICH 31Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+6
51.3%
Alex Orji pass complete to Colston Loveland for 6 yds to the MICH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
51.4%
Kalel Mullings run for 4 yds to the MICH 41Similar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 6
OWN 41
-5
51.2%
PENALTY MICH False Start (Persi,Jeffrey) 5 yards from MICH41 to MICH36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+8
51.7%
Alex Orji pass complete to Tyler Morris for 8 yds to the MICH 44Similar
Q1 9:17
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+5
51.5%
Alex Orji run for 5 yds to the MICH 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
51.2%
Alex Orji pass complete to Colston Loveland for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 9
50
0
51.3%
Alex Orji pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:08
3RD & 9
50
+5
51.6%
(08:08) PENALTY WASH Offside (Tunuufi,Voi) 5 yards from MICH50 to WASH45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:04
3RD & 4
OPP 45
0
51.4%
Alex Orji pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:54
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
51.7%
Tommy Doman punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 3TD
13 plays · 83 yds · 5:1252% → 59%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
52.2%
Adam Mohammed run for 6 yds to the WASH 23Similar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+5
52.3%
Adam Mohammed run for 5 yds to the WASH 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-3
52.4%
Will Rogers sacked by TJ Guy for a loss of 3 yards to the WASH 25Similar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 13
OWN 25
+2
52.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Keleki Latu for 2 yds to the WASH 27Similar
Q1 5:50
3RD & 11
OWN 27
+39
52.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Giles Jackson for 39 yds to the MICH 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
54.0%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+2
54.0%
Jonah Coleman run for 2 yds to the MICH 32Similar
Q1 4:49
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+13
53.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Denzel Boston for 13 yds to the MICH 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
54.4%
Giles Jackson run for 5 yds to the MICH 14Similar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+11
54.6%
Jonah Coleman run for 11 yds to the MICH 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
54.8%
Jonah Coleman run for no gain to the MICH 3Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
55.0%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
58.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Denzel Boston for 3 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2342% → 41%
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
57.7%
Kalel Mullings run for 2 yds to the MICH 27Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
58.0%
Alex Orji pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:36
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
58.6%
Alex Orji run for no gain to the MICH 27Similar
Q1 1:05
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
59.3%
Tommy Doman punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Denzel Boston at the WASH 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0859% → 59%
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
59.0%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+4
58.8%
Cameron Davis run for 4 yds to the WASH 33Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+4
59.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rashid Williams for 4 yds to the WASH 37Similar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 2
OWN 37
0
59.1%
Jack McCallister punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MICH 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:5041% → 39%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
59.1%
Donovan Edwards run for 4 yds to the MICH 25Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+7
59.3%
Donovan Edwards run for 7 yds to the MICH 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
59.4%
Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the MICH 29Similar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 13
OWN 29
+6
60.3%
Alex Orji run for 6 yds to the MICH 35Similar
Q2 12:01
3RD & 7
OWN 35
0
60.5%
Alex Orji pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:54
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
61.3%
Tommy Doman punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Denzel Boston at the WASH 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 7TD
4 plays · 74 yds · 2:0561% → 73%
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+16
61.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Keleki Latu for 16 yds to the WASH 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
62.7%
Jonah Coleman run for 5 yds to the WASH 47Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+37
63.3%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Cameron Davis for 37 yds to the MICH 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
72.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Giles Jackson for 16 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 4:1030% → 38%
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
69.8%
Kalel Mullings run for 4 yds to the MICH 29Similar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
70.3%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Max Bredeson for 5 yds to the MICH 34Similar
Q2 8:19
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
70.4%
Kalel Mullings run for 4 yds to the MICH 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
71.0%
Jack Tuttle run for 7 yds to the MICH 45Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+9
70.6%
Donovan Edwards run for 9 yds to the WASH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
71.1%
Jack Tuttle run for 7 yds to the WASH 39Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+39
62.0%
Donovan Edwards run for 39 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:5266% → 64%
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.5%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
65.3%
Jonah Coleman run for 3 yds to the WASH 28Similar
Q2 4:36
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
65.0%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:27
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+14
64.1%
Jack McCallister punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MICH 41 , Tyler Morris returns for 14 yds to the MICH 42 Michigan Penalty, Offensive Holding (Josaiah Stewart) to the MICH 41Similar
Q2 4:27
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+14
64.1%
Jack McCallister punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MICH 17 , Tyler Morris returns for 14 yds to the MICH 42 Michigan Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jo'Ziah Edmond) to the MICH 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10FG
10 plays · 56 yds · 2:2235% → 42%
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
65.4%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Colston Loveland for 6 yds to the MICH 23Similar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+11
65.1%
Donovan Edwards run for 11 yds to the MICH 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
65.3%
Donovan Edwards run for 2 yds to the MICH 36Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+30
65.2%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 15 yds to the WASH 49 for a 1ST down Washington Penalty, Personal Foul (Jacob Bandes) to the WASH 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
62.2%
Jack Tuttle pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+8
61.6%
Donovan Edwards run for 8 yds to the WASH 26Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+1
62.0%
Kalel Mullings run for 1 yd to the WASH 27Similar
Q2 1:49
4TH & 3
OPP 27
+45
57.8%
Dominic Zvada 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 11MISSED FG
12 plays · 64 yds · 1:4561% → 65%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
60.5%
Cameron Davis run for 3 yds to the WASH 28Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+12
60.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Denzel Boston for 12 yds to the WASH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
62.7%
Cameron Davis run for 1 yd to the WASH 41Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+17
62.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rashid Williams for 17 yds to the MICH 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+16
64.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Denzel Boston for 16 yds to the MICH 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
64.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Keleki Latu for 4 yds to the MICH 22Similar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+11
64.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Keleki Latu for 11 yds to the MICH 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
64.5%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+28
64.8%
Grady Gross 28 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Mason GrahamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:1940% → 60%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
59.8%
Kalel Mullings run for 7 yds to the MICH 32Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
57.9%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Colston Loveland for 6 yds to the MICH 38 for a 1ST down Washington Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
58.8%
Semaj Morgan run for 5 yds to the MICH 43Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 5
OWN 43
-5
57.2%
(13:25) PENALTY MICH False Start (Morgan,Semaj) 5 yards from MICH43 to MICH38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
59.0%
Jack Tuttle pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:48
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+22
60.6%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Amorion Walker for 22 yds to the WASH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
56.7%
Kalel Mullings run for 6 yds to the WASH 34Similar
Q3 11:23
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+4
55.3%
Jack Tuttle run for 4 yds to the WASH 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
57.6%
Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the WASH 27Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+16
57.5%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 16 yds to the WASH 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
57.5%
Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the WASH 8Similar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+8
40.4%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Colston Loveland for 8 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 2:5747% → 49%
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
47.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for a loss of 1 yard to the WASH 24Similar
Q3 8:04
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+13
46.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 13 yds to the WASH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-7
48.4%
Will Rogers sacked by Josaiah Stewart for a loss of 7 yards to the WASH 30Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 17
OWN 30
+17
46.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Giles Jackson for 17 yds to the WASH 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
51.0%
Jonah Coleman run for 7 yds to the MICH 46Similar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+2
51.9%
Jonah Coleman run for 2 yds to the MICH 48Similar
Q3 5:37
3RD & 5
OPP 48
0
51.2%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:29
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
48.5%
Jack McCallister punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4555% → 53%
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
44.6%
Kalel Mullings run for 1 yd to the MICH 21Similar
Q3 4:49
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
43.8%
Jack Tuttle pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
45.3%
Jack Tuttle pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:38
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
46.9%
Tommy Doman punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Denzel Boston at the WASH 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 15FG
12 plays · 45 yds · 5:5251% → 57%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
50.5%
Demond Williams Jr. run for 8 yds to the MICH 48Similar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+3
51.9%
Demond Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the MICH 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
51.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Keleki Latu for 14 yds to the MICH 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
53.8%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:33
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+4
53.7%
Adam Mohammed run for 4 yds to the MICH 27Similar
Q3 2:04
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+7
51.2%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 7 yds to the MICH 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
53.6%
Demond Williams Jr. run for 9 yds to the MICH 11Similar
Q3 1:16
2ND & 1
OPP 11
+1
53.6%
Adam Mohammed run for 1 yd to the MICH 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
53.7%
Demond Williams Jr. sacked by Jyaire Hill for a loss of 1 yard to the MICH 11Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
-9
53.7%
Will Rogers sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the MICH 20Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 20
+9
47.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Keleki Latu for 9 yds to the MICH 11Similar
Q4 13:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
57.1%
Grady Gross 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2948% → 45%
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
52.1%
Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the MICH 28Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
51.6%
Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the MICH 29Similar
Q4 12:11
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
53.0%
Jack Tuttle pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:04
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
55.3%
Tommy Doman punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Denzel Boston at the WASH 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 17INT
5 plays · 31 yds · 1:4957% → 62%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
57.2%
Jonah Coleman run for 1 yd to the WASH 33Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+15
56.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 15 yds to the WASH 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
61.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Giles Jackson for 6 yds to the MICH 46Similar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+9
62.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Keleki Latu for 9 yds to the MICH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
62.4%
Will Rogers pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18FUMBLE
5 plays · 13 yds · 2:0348% → 48%
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
52.1%
Kalel Mullings run for 7 yds to the MICH 26Similar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+2
50.9%
Kalel Mullings run for 2 yds to the MICH 28Similar
Q4 8:56
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+3
52.0%
Kalel Mullings run for 3 yds to the MICH 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
51.3%
Jack Tuttle pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+1
52.2%
Jack Tuttle run for 1 yd to the MICH 32 Jack Tuttle fumbled, recovered by WASH Logan SagapoluSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 19TD
4 plays · 32 yds · 1:3264% → 91%
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+27
64.4%
Jonah Coleman run for 27 yds to the MICH 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
64.2%
Jonah Coleman run for 1 yd to the MICH 4Similar
Q4 6:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.1%
Jonah Coleman run for 1 yd for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20INT
7 plays · 6 yds · 2:5213% → 11%
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
87.0%
Donovan Edwards run for 5 yds to the MICH 30Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
85.8%
Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the MICH 33Similar
Q4 4:49
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
86.7%
Kalel Mullings run for 2 yds to the MICH 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:12
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
88.0%
Kalel Mullings run for 2 yds to the MICH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
87.7%
(03:38) PENALTY MICH False Start (Priebe,Josh) 5 yards from MICH36 to MICH31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:24
1ST & 15
OWN 31
0
89.2%
Jack Tuttle pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 21FG
11 plays · 26 yds · 2:0895% → 97%
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
94.8%
Demond Williams Jr. run for 1 yd to the MICH 40Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+1
95.2%
Jonah Coleman run for 1 yd to the MICH 39Similar
Q4 2:24
3RD & 8
OPP 39
0
95.4%
(02:29) Shotgun Rogers,Will pass incomplete deep left to Boston,Denzel thrown to MICH12 PENALTY MICH Roughing The Passer declined MICH Pass Interference (Johnson,Will) 15 yards from MICH39 to MICH24, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
96.0%
Jonah Coleman run for 3 yds to the MICH 21Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+4
96.1%
Jonah Coleman run for 4 yds to the MICH 17Similar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+2
95.9%
Jonah Coleman run for 2 yds to the MICH 15Similar
Q4 1:06
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+32
97.2%
Grady Gross 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 22END OF GAME
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:583% → 3%
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
97.0%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Colston Loveland for 6 yds to the MICH 32Similar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+8
96.6%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 8 yds to the MICH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
96.7%
Jack Tuttle pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-5
96.8%
Jack Tuttle sacked by Isaiah Ward for a loss of 5 yards to the MICH 35Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 15
OWN 35
+6
97.3%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Marlin Klein for 6 yds to the MICH 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:22
Jonah Coleman run for 1 yd for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)
+24.6
TD · Q3 8:38
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Colston Loveland for 8 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
-17.1
FG · Q4 13:38
Grady Gross 28 yd FG GOOD
+9.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com