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WIS

Wisconsin 21 at USC 38

USC
2024 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2024 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadWIS aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreWIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:15 · Eddie Czaplicki punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Tyrell Henry at the WIS 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 23Pregame prior+27.3Home team on offense+0.4Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:29: Tawee Walker run for 4 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK) — WIS win probability +7.8 pts (now 43%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:18: Miller Moss pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 6 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK) — USC win probability +17.0 pts (now 64%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:28: Miller Moss pass complete to Duce Robinson for 8 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK) — USC win probability +17.4 pts (now 75%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:22: Miller Moss run for 7 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK) — USC win probability +12.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:10: Mason Cobb 55 Yd Interception Return (Michael Lantz Kick) — USC win probability +6.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 6 of 7WIS made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 12:57USC 4th & 1 at WIS 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    81.5%−0.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    81.4%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:15USC 4th & 7 at WIS 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    79.9%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    79.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:56WIS 4th & 7 at WIS 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:50WIS 4th & 4 at WIS 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:43USC 4th & 6 at WIS 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    64.6%−4.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:11WIS 4th & 8 at USC 44, up 11
    Close callPunted · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    47.2%−0.5
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    47.6%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:20WIS 4th & 17 at WIS 18, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−3.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:51USC 4th & 10 at USC 30, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:44WIS 4th & 1 at USC 33, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    40.7%−5.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    39.0%−6.9
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:51WIS 4th & 7 at WIS 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−1.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:22USC 4th & 1 at WIS 7, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    69.9%−6.7
    91% to make
    Punt
    53.4%−23.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:19WIS 4th & 6 at WIS 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:43USC 4th & 11 at USC 14, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%−1.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:43USC 4th & 11 at USC 14, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%−1.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:00WIS 4th & 10 at USC 18, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    2.2%
    79% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5WIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:23USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:52WIS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:44WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:29WIS Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:18USC Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:28USC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:22USC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:10USC Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:3781% → 81%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
80.8%
PENALTY WIS Face Mask (Curtis,Tackett) 15 yards from USC25 to USC40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+14
80.8%
Miller Moss pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 14 yds to the WIS 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
80.7%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+3
80.7%
Woody Marks run for 3 yds to the WIS 43Similar
Q1 13:38
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+5
80.6%
(13:54) No Huddle-Shotgun Moss,Miller pass incomplete deep middle to Branch,Zachariah thrown to WIS10 PENALTY WIS Offside (Thomas,Jaheim) 5 yards from WIS43 to WIS38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:32
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+1
80.6%
Woody Marks run for 1 yd to the WIS 37Similar
Q1 12:57
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+5
80.4%
Woody Marks run for 5 yds to the WIS 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
81.0%
Ja'Kobi Lane 32 Yd pass from Miller Moss (Michael Lantz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 2TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2519% → 20%
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
80.7%
Chez Mellusi run for 5 yds to the WIS 30Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
80.7%
Chez Mellusi run for 3 yds to the WIS 33Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
80.7%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 4 yds to the WIS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+63
79.6%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 63 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 3:2980% → 79%
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
79.7%
Miller Moss run for 1 yd to the USC 26Similar
Q1 10:09
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
79.5%
Miller Moss pass complete to Woody Marks for 4 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q1 9:28
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+16
79.3%
Miller Moss pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 16 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
79.5%
Miller Moss pass complete to Kyle Ford for 10 yds to the WIS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
79.4%
Woody Marks run for 3 yds to the WIS 41Similar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 7
OPP 41
0
79.2%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:23
3RD & 7
OPP 41
0
79.1%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:15
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
78.7%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Tyrell Henry at the WIS 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:1322% → 21%
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+10
78.5%
Darrion Dupree run for 10 yds to the WIS 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
78.4%
Braedyn Locke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+3
78.4%
Darrion Dupree run for 3 yds to the WIS 25Similar
Q1 6:06
3RD & 7
OWN 25
0
78.4%
Braedyn Locke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:56
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
78.6%
Atticus Bertrams punt for 74 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5INT
10 plays · 46 yds · 5:1678% → 78%
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
78.1%
Bryan Jackson run for 2 yds to the USC 3Similar
Q1 5:17
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+1
77.9%
Bryan Jackson run for 1 yd to the USC 2Similar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 9
OWN 2
+10
77.3%
Woody Marks run for 10 yds to the USC 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
77.6%
Woody Marks run for 2 yds to the USC 14Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+9
77.4%
Miller Moss pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 9 yds to the USC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
77.3%
Miller Moss pass complete to Kyron Hudson for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 21Similar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 12
OWN 21
+11
77.1%
Quinten Joyner run for 11 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q1 1:44
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+9
77.2%
Miller Moss run for 9 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
77.6%
Quinten Joyner run for 6 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q1 0:37
2ND & 4
OWN 47
0
77.7%
Miller Moss pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4224% → 24%
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.0%
Braedyn Locke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
76.0%
Wisconsin Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+6
76.2%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Jackson Acker for 6 yds to the WIS 31Similar
Q2 14:50
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+51
76.3%
Atticus Bertrams punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 7TD
1 play · 18 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
69.6%
Tawee Walker run for 18 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 8FG
13 plays · 41 yds · 4:5472% → 72%
Q2 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+25
71.5%
Miller Moss pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 25 yds to the WIS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
72.5%
(14:14) PENALTY USC Offside (Ford,Kyle) 5 yards from WIS40 to WIS45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 15
OPP 45
+2
71.5%
Miller Moss run for 2 yds to the WIS 43Similar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 13
OPP 43
+5
71.0%
Woody Marks run for 5 yds to the WIS 38Similar
Q2 12:35
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+5
71.2%
(12:37) PENALTY WIS Offside (Thomas,Jaheim) 5 yards from WIS38 to WIS33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+5
70.6%
Miller Moss pass complete to Walker Lyons for 5 yds to the WIS 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
71.0%
Miller Moss pass complete to Woody Marks for 4 yds to the WIS 24Similar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+2
70.7%
Woody Marks run for 2 yds to the WIS 22Similar
Q2 10:18
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+3
69.4%
Miller Moss pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 3 yds to the WIS 19Similar
Q2 9:49
4TH & 1
OPP 19
-5
68.0%
PENALTY USC False Start (Noa,Alani) 5 yards from WIS19 to WIS24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:43
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+41
71.9%
Michael Lantz 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 9TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:0830% → 43%
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
70.4%
Cade Yacamelli run for 6 yds to the WIS 31Similar
Q2 9:07
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
69.2%
Tawee Walker run for 5 yds to the WIS 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+35
68.9%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Bryson Green for 35 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
66.0%
Tawee Walker run for 3 yds to the USC 26Similar
Q2 7:42
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+13
65.5%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Will Pauling for 13 yds to the USC 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
65.0%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Riley Nowakowski for 9 yds to the USC 4Similar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 1
OPP 4
+4
57.2%
Tawee Walker run for 4 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 10FUMBLE
8 plays · 51 yds · 2:5458% → 58%
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
58.0%
Miller Moss pass complete to Walker Lyons for 7 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+15
58.3%
Zachariah Branch run for 15 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
58.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 14 yds to the WIS 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
58.3%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+15
58.0%
Miller Moss pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 15 yds to the WIS 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
58.8%
Bryan Jackson run for 2 yds to the WIS 22Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 8
OPP 22
-2
58.1%
Miller Moss sacked by Austin Brown for a loss of 2 yards to the WIS 24 Miller Moss fumbled, recovered by WIS Ben Barten , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 11PUNT
11 plays · 32 yds · 2:1445% → 51%
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
55.1%
Chez Mellusi run for 3 yds to the WIS 27Similar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+15
53.7%
USC Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the WIS 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
52.0%
Chez Mellusi run for 4 yds to the WIS 47Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+7
51.0%
Chez Mellusi run for 7 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
49.9%
Tawee Walker run for 2 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 8
OPP 44
0
48.8%
Braedyn Locke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:16
3RD & 8
OPP 44
0
48.9%
Braedyn Locke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:11
4TH & 8
OPP 44
0
49.5%
Atticus Bertrams punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Zachariah Branch at the USC 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 12END OF HALF
5 plays · 32 yds · 1:0750% → 48%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+9
49.6%
Miller Moss pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 9 yds to the USC 13Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 1
OWN 13
+3
50.2%
Miller Moss pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 3 yds to the USC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
50.0%
Miller Moss pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 5 yds to the USC 21Similar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 5
OWN 21
0
49.1%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+15
47.7%
Quinten Joyner run for 15 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · -7 yds · 1:3649% → 49%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
50.9%
Tawee Walker run for 2 yds to the WIS 27Similar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
50.8%
Tawee Walker run for 2 yds to the WIS 27Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
50.1%
Tawee Walker run for 4 yds to the WIS 23Similar
Q3 13:49
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-5
50.5%
(13:56) No Huddle-Shotgun Locke,Braedyn pass complete short left to Anthony,Vinny caught at WIS27, for 11 yards to the WIS34 (Mascarenas-Arnold,Easton) PENALTY WIS Illegal Formation 5 yards from WIS23 to WIS18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:48
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-5
50.5%
(13:56) No Huddle-Shotgun Locke,Braedyn pass complete short left to Anthony,Vinny caught at WIS27, for 11 yards to the WIS34 (Mascarenas-Arnold,Easton) PENALTY WIS Illegal Formation 5 yards from WIS23 to WIS18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:32
3RD & 17
OWN 18
0
50.3%
Braedyn Locke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:20
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
50.6%
Atticus Bertrams punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2449% → 46%
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
49.1%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
48.6%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:59
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
46.8%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:51
4TH & 10
OWN 30
+40
46.0%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15TD
10 plays · 30 yds · 3:2252% → 64%
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
52.2%
Woody Marks run for 3 yds to the WIS 27Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 7
OPP 27
0
51.7%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:59
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+9
49.7%
Miller Moss pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 9 yds to the WIS 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
51.1%
Miller Moss pass complete to Zachariah Branch for no gain to the WIS 18Similar
Q3 11:03
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
50.5%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:57
3RD & 10
OPP 18
-5
46.9%
(11:03) No Huddle-Shotgun Moss,Miller pass complete short right to Lane,Ja'Kobi caught at WIS12, for 9 yards to the WIS09 (Fourqurean,Nyzier) PENALTY USC Illegal Formation 5 yards from WIS18 to WIS23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 15
OPP 23
+15
45.2%
Miller Moss pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 15 yds to the WIS 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
47.3%
Woody Marks run for 2 yds to the WIS 6Similar
Q3 9:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
46.8%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
63.8%
Miller Moss pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 6 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 16DOWNS
10 plays · 47 yds · 3:2341% → 47%
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
58.7%
Chez Mellusi run for 2 yds to the WIS 22Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
58.6%
Braedyn Locke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:31
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+15
59.8%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Bryson Green for 15 yds to the WIS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
56.6%
Tawee Walker run for 6 yds to the WIS 43Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+15
53.1%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to C.J. Williams for 15 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
51.9%
Tawee Walker run for 6 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 4
OPP 36
0
51.0%
Braedyn Locke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:01
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+3
51.1%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 3 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q3 5:44
4TH & 1
OPP 33
0
53.5%
Tawee Walker run for no gain to the USC 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17TD
11 plays · 67 yds · 4:1157% → 75%
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
56.8%
Woody Marks run for 9 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q3 5:04
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+2
59.4%
Miller Moss pass complete to Kade Eldridge for 2 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
57.7%
Woody Marks run for no gain to the USC 44Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+10
54.1%
(03:56) No Huddle-Shotgun Moss,Miller pass incomplete short right to Fair,Jay thrown to WIS45 PENALTY WIS Holding (Fourqurean,Nyzier) 10 yards from USC44 to WIS46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
57.1%
(03:52) No Huddle-Shotgun Moss,Miller pass incomplete deep left to Robinson,Duce thrown to WIS15 broken up by Hallman,Ricardo PENALTY WIS Roughing The Passer offsetting USC Ineligible Downfield on Pass offsetting. NO PLAY. The previous play is under automatic review - "Targeting". PLAY STANDS.Similar
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
57.1%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:36
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+3
56.7%
Woody Marks run for 3 yds to the WIS 43Similar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+32
55.6%
Miller Moss pass complete to Duce Robinson for 32 yds to the WIS 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
57.9%
Woody Marks run for 3 yds to the WIS 8Similar
Q3 1:32
2ND & 7
OPP 8
0
57.5%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:28
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+8
74.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Duce Robinson for 8 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3128% → 26%
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
72.0%
Chez Mellusi run for 5 yds to the WIS 30Similar
Q3 0:58
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
70.8%
Chez Mellusi run for no gain to the WIS 30Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-2
71.9%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Will Pauling for a loss of 2 yards to the WIS 28Similar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+4
73.8%
Atticus Bertrams punt for 53 yds , Zachariah Branch returns for 4 yds to the USC 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 6:1975% → 91%
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
74.9%
Woody Marks run for 4 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+13
75.0%
Miller Moss pass complete to Woody Marks for 13 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
76.7%
Miller Moss pass complete to Quinten Joyner for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
50
+21
77.7%
Miller Moss pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 21 yds to the WIS 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
78.9%
(12:09) PENALTY USC False Start (Murphy,Mason) 5 yards from WIS29 to WIS34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:39
1ST & 15
OPP 34
+14
78.2%
Miller Moss pass complete to Kyle Ford for 14 yds to the WIS 20Similar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+4
79.5%
Quinten Joyner run for 4 yds to the WIS 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
79.5%
Woody Marks run for no gain to the WIS 16Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+8
79.6%
Miller Moss pass complete to Woody Marks for 8 yds to the WIS 8Similar
Q4 9:03
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+1
78.1%
Woody Marks run for 1 yd to the WIS 7Similar
Q4 8:22
4TH & 1
OPP 7
+7
90.8%
Miller Moss run for 7 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:5710% → 9%
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
90.5%
Tawee Walker run for 12 yds to the WIS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
90.2%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Darrion Dupree for 4 yds to the WIS 41Similar
Q4 7:31
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
89.6%
Braedyn Locke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:26
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
89.9%
Wisconsin Penalty, Offensive Holding (John Pius) declinedSimilar
Q4 7:19
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
91.1%
Atticus Bertrams punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Zachariah Branch at the USC 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:3291% → 91%
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
91.4%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+2
91.2%
Woody Marks run for 2 yds to the USC 17Similar
Q4 6:29
3RD & 8
OWN 17
-3
91.4%
Miller Moss pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 14Similar
Q4 5:43
4TH & 11
OWN 14
+4
91.1%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 43 yds , Tyrell Henry returns for 4 yds to the WIS 47Similar
Q4 5:43
4TH & 11
OWN 14
+4
91.1%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 43 yds , Tyrell Henry returns for 4 yds to the WIS 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 22INT TD
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:339% → 2%
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
90.9%
Chez Mellusi run for 2 yds to the WIS 49Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 8
OWN 49
-55
97.7%
Mason Cobb 55 Yd Interception Return (Michael Lantz Kick)Similar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
97.8%
PENALTY USC UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Brown,Prophet) 15 yards from USC35 to USC20. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 23DOWNS
8 plays · 6 yds · 1:453% → 2%
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
97.3%
Tawee Walker run for 1 yd to the USC 17Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 9
OPP 17
-5
97.3%
PENALTY WIS Illegal Snap (Renfro,Jake) 5 yards from USC17 to USC22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:07
2ND & 14
OPP 22
+9
97.5%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Bryson Green for 9 yds to the USC 13Similar
Q4 3:33
3RD & 5
OPP 13
-5
97.6%
(03:33) PENALTY WIS False Start (Nelson,Jack) 5 yards from USC13 to USC18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:07
3RD & 10
OPP 18
0
97.8%
Braedyn Locke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:00
4TH & 10
OPP 18
+6
97.6%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Bryson Green for 6 yds to the USC 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 24END OF GAME
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:5698% → 100%
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
98.3%
Woody Marks run for 5 yds to the USC 17Similar
Q4 2:14
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+11
98.4%
Quinten Joyner run for 11 yds to the USC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
99.4%
Quinten Joyner run for 2 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+7
99.4%
Jayden Maiava run for 7 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+9
99.5%
Bryan Jackson run for 9 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
99.5%
Kneel down by USC at USC44 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:28
Miller Moss pass complete to Duce Robinson for 8 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)
+17.4
TD · Q3 9:18
Miller Moss pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 6 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)
+17
TD · Q4 8:22
Miller Moss run for 7 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)
+12.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com