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Maryland 28 at Indiana 42

IU
2024 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2024 · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
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Win probability · IU
modelIU aheadMD aheadconfidence bandkey playIU scoreMD score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:15 · Bryce McFerson punt for 32 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 83Pregame prior+10.2Home team on offense−1.5Score differential−2.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:38: Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 27 yds for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK) — IU win probability +13.5 pts (now 82%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:52: Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Dylan Wade for 6 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK) — MD win probability +15.2 pts (now 45%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:31: Justice Ellison run for 19 yds for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK) — IU win probability +15.2 pts (now 81%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:21: Roman Hemby run for 75 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK) — MD win probability +22.6 pts (now 41%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:40: Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 13 yds for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK) — IU win probability +21.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3MD made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 10:28MD 4th & 14 at MD 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:31MD 4th & 8 at MD 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%
    average punt
  3. Q2 8:09IU 4th & 12 at IU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%−1.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:14MD 4th & 9 at MD 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.0%−1.0
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:01MD 4th & 9 at MD 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:46IU 4th & 16 at IU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%−2.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:15MD 4th & 12 at MD 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%−2.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:13MD 4th & 15 at MD 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%−3.9
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:55MD 4th & 3 at MD 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%−0.5
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.3%
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:11MD 4th & 10 at IU 30, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.3%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    6.8%
    56% to make
    Punt
    5.5%−1.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:09MD 4th & 17 at MD 27, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.6%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:33IU 4th & 5 at MD 39, up 14
    Close callPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    97.1%−0.3
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.0%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:07MD 4th & 15 at MD 13, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.0%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6MD made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q2 14:55IU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:16MD Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:38IU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:52MD Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:31IU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:21MD Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:40IU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:24IU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.4%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:09IU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:55MD Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.6%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IUDrive 1INT
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:5969% → 69%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
69.4%
Ty Son Lawton run for 2 yds to the IU 27Similar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
69.4%
Ty Son Lawton run for 6 yds to the IU 33Similar
Q1 13:43
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+9
69.3%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 9 yds to the IU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-6
69.3%
Kurtis Rourke sacked by Kellan Wyatt for a loss of 6 yards to the IU 36Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 16
OWN 36
0
69.1%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:27
3RD & 16
OWN 36
+18
69.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 18 yds to the MD 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-37
69.4%
Kurtis Rourke pass intercepted Jalen Huskey return for 37 yds to the MD 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:1731% → 31%
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
68.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
68.8%
Roman Hemby run for 3 yds to the MD 43Similar
Q1 11:09
3RD & 7
OWN 43
-7
68.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. sacked by CJ West for a loss of 7 yards to the MD 36Similar
Q1 10:28
4TH & 14
OWN 36
+20
69.0%
Bryce McFerson punt for 50 yds , Myles Price returns for 20 yds to the IU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 3INT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:4869% → 69%
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
68.8%
Justice Ellison run for 7 yds to the IU 41Similar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+2
69.3%
Justice Ellison run for 2 yds to the IU 43Similar
Q1 9:09
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+2
69.1%
Justice Ellison run for 2 yds to the IU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
69.0%
Ty Son Lawton run for 7 yds to the MD 48Similar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 3
OPP 48
-1
69.4%
Ty Son Lawton run for a loss of 1 yard to the MD 49Similar
Q1 7:28
3RD & 4
OPP 49
0
68.7%
Kurtis Rourke pass intercepted Glendon Miller return for no gain to the MD 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:5232% → 32%
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
68.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for no gain to the MD 36Similar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-10
68.3%
Billy Edwards Jr. sacked by James Carpenter for a loss of 10 yards to the MD 26Similar
Q1 6:09
3RD & 20
OWN 26
+12
68.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Roman Hemby for 12 yds to the MD 38Similar
Q1 5:31
4TH & 8
OWN 38
+9
67.8%
Bryce McFerson punt for 54 yds , Myles Price returns for 9 yds to the IU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 5TD
12 plays · 83 yds · 5:2568% → 75%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
67.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:16
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+22
67.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Myles Price for 22 yds to the IU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
68.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 9 yds to the IU 48Similar
Q1 3:56
2ND & 1
OWN 48
-6
68.9%
Kurtis Rourke sacked by Trey Reddick and TEAM for a loss of 6 yards to the IU 42Similar
Q1 3:16
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+8
68.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Kaelon Black for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
50
-1
69.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Kaelon Black for a loss of 1 yard to the IU 49Similar
Q1 2:03
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+19
68.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 19 yds to the MD 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
69.4%
Kaelon Black run for 6 yds to the MD 26Similar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+7
69.4%
Ty Son Lawton run for 7 yds to the MD 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+18
69.4%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Zach Horton for 18 yds to the MD 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
69.4%
Ty Son Lawton run for no gain to the MD 1Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
75.4%
Myles Price run for 1 yd for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 6TD
14 plays · 81 yds · 5:3428% → 39%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
71.9%
Nolan Ray run for 4 yds to the MD 23Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+3
71.9%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 3 yds to the MD 26Similar
Q2 13:41
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+12
72.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Roman Hemby for 12 yds to the MD 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
71.4%
Roman Hemby run for 11 yds to the MD 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+16
70.8%
Roman Hemby run for 16 yds to the IU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
69.9%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 7 yds to the IU 28Similar
Q2 11:52
2ND & 3
OPP 28
-15
69.7%
Maryland Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the IU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
70.6%
Maryland Penalty, Illegal Snap on KALTENBERGER, Josh enforced (-5 Yards) to the IU 43Similar
Q2 11:19
1ST & 15
OPP 43
-15
71.3%
(11:19) EDWARDS JR., Billy pass to the right incomplete thrown to the IND35, clock 11:14. PENALTY MAR Face mask on LONG, Kyle enforced 15 yards from the IND43 to the MAR42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:11
1ST & 30
OWN 42
-1
72.3%
Nolan Ray run for a loss of 1 yard to the MD 41Similar
Q2 10:29
2ND & 31
OWN 41
+15
72.5%
(10:29) EDWARDS JR., Billy pass deep to the right incomplete intended for FELTON, Tai thrown to the IND20, clock 10:25. PENALTY IND Pass Interference on JOHNSON, Jamier enforced 15 yards to the IND44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
70.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Roman Hemby for 7 yds to the IU 37Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+4
70.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Kaden Prather for 4 yds to the IU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
61.3%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Kaden Prather for 33 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 1:0767% → 65%
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
66.8%
Kurtis Rourke run for 12 yds to the IU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
67.5%
Justice Ellison run for a loss of 2 yards to the IU 35Similar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 12
OWN 35
0
66.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 12
OWN 35
0
65.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:09
4TH & 12
OWN 35
0
65.1%
James Evans punt for 36 yds, downed at the MD 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:4638% → 36%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
62.5%
Colby McDonald run for 1 yd to the MD 30Similar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 9
OWN 30
-8
62.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. sacked by Aiden Fisher and Jailin Walker for a loss of 8 yards to the MD 22Similar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 17
OWN 22
+8
63.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Kaden Prather for 8 yds to the MD 30Similar
Q2 6:14
4TH & 9
OWN 30
0
63.7%
Bryce McFerson punt for 45 yds, downed at the IU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 9FUMBLE
4 plays · 34 yds · 0:5966% → 68%
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
65.8%
Ty Son Lawton run for 9 yds to the IU 34Similar
Q2 5:32
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+15
67.1%
Maryland Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Tommy Akingbesote) to the MD 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
68.2%
Kaelon Black run for 8 yds to the MD 41 Kaelon Black fumbled, recovered by MD Lavain Scruggs L. Scruggs return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:5738% → 36%
Q2 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
61.7%
Roman Hemby run for 5 yds to the MD 46Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+2
61.3%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the MD 48Similar
Q2 3:57
3RD & 3
OWN 48
-1
61.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the MD 47Similar
Q2 3:16
4TH & 4
OWN 47
-5
62.7%
Maryland Penalty, False Start (Tai Felton) to the MD 42Similar
Q2 3:01
4TH & 9
OWN 42
0
63.8%
Bryce McFerson punt for 57 yds, downed at the IU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 1:0365% → 63%
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+22
64.9%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 22 yds to the IU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
64.5%
Justice Ellison run for no gain to the IU 23Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+5
64.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Justice Ellison for 5 yds to the IU 28Similar
Q2 1:51
3RD & 5
OWN 28
-11
64.7%
Kurtis Rourke sacked by Caleb Wheatland and TEAM for a loss of 11 yards to the IU 17Similar
Q2 1:46
4TH & 16
OWN 17
+8
63.4%
James Evans punt for 58 yds , Braeden Wisloski returns for 8 yds to the MD 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:1937% → 34%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
63.5%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Kaden Prather for 5 yds to the MD 38Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 5
OWN 38
0
62.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 5
OWN 38
-7
63.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. sacked by Mikail Kamara for a loss of 7 yards to the MD 31Similar
Q2 1:15
4TH & 12
OWN 31
0
66.2%
Bryce McFerson punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 13TD
3 plays · 63 yds · 0:3267% → 82%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
66.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Ty Son Lawton for 9 yds to the IU 46Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+27
68.1%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 27 yds to the MD 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
81.7%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 27 yds for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:2519% → 19%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
81.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Dylan Wade for 5 yds to the MD 26Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+1
81.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 1 yd to the MD 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 15TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:0626% → 45%
Q3 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.3%
Roman Hemby run for no gain to the MD 25Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
74.5%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 7 yds to the MD 32Similar
Q3 13:54
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+21
74.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 21 yds to the IU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
71.9%
(13:25) HEMBY, Roman rush to the right for a gain of 9 yards to the IND38 (JOHNSON, Jamier;SANGUINETTI, Josh), clock 13:19. PENALTY MAR Holding on BAH, Aliou enforced 10 yards from the IND47 to the MAR43 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:03
1ST & 20
OWN 43
0
74.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 20
OWN 43
+5
74.4%
(12:56) EDWARDS JR., Billy pass deep to the right intercepted by SANGUINETTI, Josh at the IND23 intended for KNOTTS, Shaleak. Sanguinetti return for 20 yards to the IND43 (WADE, Dylan), clock 12:47. PENALTY IND Offsides on CARPENTER, James enforced 5 yards from the MAR43 to the MAR48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 15
OWN 48
-2
74.1%
Colby McDonald run for a loss of 2 yards to the MD 46Similar
Q3 11:43
3RD & 17
OWN 46
+27
75.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Shaleak Knotts for 27 yds to the IU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
70.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 3 yds to the IU 24Similar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+16
70.3%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Kaden Prather for 16 yds to the IU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
70.2%
Colby McDonald run for 2 yds to the IU 6Similar
Q3 9:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
55.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Dylan Wade for 6 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 16TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2163% → 81%
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
62.7%
Ty Son Lawton run for 3 yds to the IU 28Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
62.7%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:16
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+41
61.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Myles Price for 41 yds to the MD 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
67.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:46
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+9
67.3%
Ty Son Lawton run for 9 yds to the MD 22Similar
Q3 8:07
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+3
66.0%
Ty Son Lawton run for 3 yds to the MD 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
81.2%
Justice Ellison run for 19 yds for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 17TD
1 play · 75 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
58.6%
Roman Hemby run for 75 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:5860% → 59%
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.9%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
59.4%
Ty Son Lawton run for 4 yds to the IU 29Similar
Q3 6:39
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
58.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:33
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
57.0%
James Evans punt for 56 yds, downed at the MD 15Similar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-7
59.0%
(06:23) QB Keeper EDWARDS JR., Billy rush to the right for a gain of 17 yards to the MAR32 (JONES, Isaiah), out of bounds, clock 06:16. PENALTY MAR Holding on BAH, Aliou enforced half the distance from the goal, 7 yards from the MAR15 to the MAR8 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:4941% → 38%
Q3 6:02
1ST & 17
OWN 8
+2
59.3%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the MD 10Similar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 15
OWN 10
0
59.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:23
3RD & 15
OWN 10
+5
60.4%
(05:23) EDWARDS JR., Billy pass up the middle incomplete intended for WADE, Dylan broken up by ASBURY II, Shawn at the MAR24, clock 05:18. PENALTY IND Offsides on CARPENTER, James enforced 5 yards from the MAR10 to the MAR15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:19
3RD & 10
OWN 15
0
60.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:16
4TH & 10
OWN 15
-5
61.6%
Maryland Penalty, Illegal Snap on GOUGH, Ethan enforced (Ethan Gough) to the MD 10Similar
Q3 5:13
4TH & 15
OWN 10
+3
61.6%
Bryce McFerson punt for 56 yds , Myles Price returns for 3 yds to the IU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 20TD
9 plays · 63 yds · 4:2361% → 85%
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
61.2%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 14 yds to the MD 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
64.1%
Justice Ellison run for 3 yds to the MD 46Similar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+9
64.0%
Justice Ellison run for 9 yds to the MD 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
64.1%
Ty Son Lawton run for 2 yds to the MD 35Similar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+9
64.9%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Ty Son Lawton for 9 yds to the MD 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
65.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+3
64.8%
Kaelon Black run for 3 yds to the MD 23Similar
Q3 1:24
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+10
63.2%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 10 yds to the MD 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
84.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 13 yds for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:4523% → 22%
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
76.8%
Nolan Ray run for 6 yds to the MD 31Similar
Q3 0:15
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
75.5%
Nolan Ray run for 1 yd to the MD 32Similar
Q4 14:58
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
77.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
78.4%
Bryce McFerson punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 22TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 2:2683% → 98%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+36
83.1%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 36 yds to the MD 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
85.4%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 7 yds to the MD 22Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+8
84.9%
Ty Son Lawton run for 8 yds to the MD 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
85.5%
Ty Son Lawton run for 2 yds to the MD 12Similar
Q4 12:24
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+12
97.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 12 yds for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 23DOWNS
13 plays · 45 yds · 4:138% → 7%
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
92.3%
Roman Hemby run for 3 yds to the MD 28Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
92.1%
Roman Hemby run for no gain to the MD 28Similar
Q4 11:14
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+12
92.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Braeden Wisloski for 12 yds to the MD 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
92.6%
Colby McDonald run for 8 yds to the MD 48Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+10
92.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Braeden Wisloski for 10 yds to the IU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
92.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+7
92.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 7 yds to the IU 35Similar
Q4 8:49
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+5
92.6%
Colby McDonald run for 5 yds to the IU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
92.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
92.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 10
OPP 30
0
92.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:11
4TH & 10
OPP 30
0
93.3%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 24FUMBLE
6 plays · 36 yds · 2:1899% → 99%
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
98.7%
Justice Ellison run for 6 yds to the IU 36Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+25
98.8%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 25 yds to the MD 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
98.9%
Justice Ellison run for 1 yd to the MD 38Similar
Q4 6:32
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+2
98.9%
Justice Ellison run for 2 yds to the MD 36Similar
Q4 5:49
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+2
99.0%
Kurtis Rourke run for 2 yds to the MD 34 Kurtis Rourke fumbled, recovered by MD Caleb Wheatland C. Wheatland return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 25DOWNS
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:335% → 4%
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
95.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Dylan Wade for 4 yds to the MD 38Similar
Q4 5:24
2ND & 6
OWN 38
-11
95.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. sacked by James Carpenter for a loss of 11 yards to the MD 27Similar
Q4 5:13
3RD & 17
OWN 27
0
95.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:09
4TH & 17
OWN 27
0
95.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 26TD
2 plays · 27 yds · 0:5499% → 100%
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+13
99.2%
Ty Son Lawton run for 13 yds to the MD 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
99.8%
Ty Son Lawton run for 14 yds for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 27TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:131% → 5%
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
99.5%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Ezekiel Avit for 13 yds to the MD 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.5%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+37
99.5%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Braeden Wisloski for 37 yds to the IU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
95.5%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Roman Hemby for 12 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 28PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:2199% → 99%
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
99.4%
Ty Son Lawton run for no gain to the MD 44Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+3
99.5%
Ty Son Lawton run for 3 yds to the MD 41Similar
Q4 2:39
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+2
99.5%
Justice Ellison run for 2 yds to the MD 39Similar
Q4 2:33
4TH & 5
OPP 39
0
99.4%
James Evans punt for 38 yds, downed at the MD 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 29DOWNS
9 plays · 11 yds · 1:181% → 1%
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+8
98.9%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Shaleak Knotts for 8 yds to the MD 9Similar
Q4 2:03
2ND & 2
OWN 9
+9
99.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Leon Haughton Jr. for 9 yds to the MD 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
99.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Roman Hemby for 5 yds to the MD 23Similar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 5
OWN 23
-10
99.0%
(01:39) EDWARDS JR., Billy pass short to the left complete for 10 yards to HEMBY, Roman caught at the MAR25 and advanced to the MAR33 (JOHNSON, Jamier;WALKER, Jailin), clock 01:33. PENALTY MAR Tripping on HERSHEY, Michael enforced half the distance from the goal, 11 yards from the MAR23 to the MAR12 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 16
OWN 12
+6
99.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Shaleak Knotts for 6 yds to the MD 18Similar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 10
OWN 18
0
99.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:07
4TH & 15
OWN 13
-1
99.1%
Kellan Wyatt run for a loss of 1 yard to the MD 12Similar
Q4 1:07
4TH & 10
OWN 18
-5
99.1%
Maryland Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the MD 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 30END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:29100% → 100%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
99.6%
(01:00) [SG] Kneel down by ROURKE, Kurtis at MAR13 (team loss of 1), clock 00:49.Similar
Q4 0:31
2ND & 11
OPP 13
-1
99.6%
(00:31) Kneel down by ROURKE, Kurtis at MAR14 (team loss of 1), clock 00:27.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:21
Roman Hemby run for 75 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)
-22.6
TD · Q3 0:40
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 13 yds for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK)
+21.3
TD · Q3 9:52
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Dylan Wade for 6 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)
-15.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com