2024 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2024 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadILL aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreILL score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:55 · Kaytron Allen run for 5 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q2 0:38: Drew Allar pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 15 yds to the PSU 42 for a 1ST down — PSU win probability +3.2 pts (now 82%) (top driver: Offense has -1 timeouts left).
- TD · Q3 8:38: Nicholas Singleton run for 4 yds for a TD (Sander Sahaydak KICK) — PSU win probability +7.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 1:06: Josh McCray run for no gain to the ILL 15 — ILL win probability +3.5 pts (now 15%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 8:51: Luke Altmyer run for 5 yds to the ILL 28 — ILL win probability +4.0 pts (now 14%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 5:46: Drew Allar pass complete to Luke Reynolds for 8 yds to the ILL 33 — PSU win probability +5.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4ILL made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 3:34ILL 4th & 7 at PSU 40, tiedClose callPunted · 14.5% before the snapGo for it14.5%37% to convertField goal14.4%−0.134% to makePuntTheir call14.4%−0.1average punt
- Q2 14:56PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 42, tiedClose callPunted · 84.6% before the snapGo for it84.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.4%−0.3average punt
- Q2 10:58ILL 4th & 9 at ILL 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 17.3% before the snapGo for it17.1%−0.432% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.4%average punt
- Q2 5:00PSU 4th & 6 at ILL 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.9% before the snapGo for it80.5%−<0.139% to convertField goalTheir call80.5%70% to makePunt77.6%−2.9average punt
- Q2 0:44ILL 4th & 27 at PSU 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.9% before the snapGo for it22.1%−2.07% to convertField goalTheir call24.0%62% to makePunt20.2%−3.9average punt
- Q3 6:42ILL 4th & 18 at ILL 17, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snapGo for it13.4%−2.612% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.1%average punt
- Q3 1:12PSU 4th & 3 at ILL 17, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call87.5%51% to convertField goal86.8%−0.780% to makePunt80.3%−7.2average punt
- Q4 12:21ILL 4th & 16 at ILL 20, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snapGo for it10.6%−2.514% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.1%average punt
- Q4 8:57PSU 4th & 4 at ILL 23, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 89.3% before the snapGo for it88.9%47% to convertField goalTheir call88.5%−0.470% to makePunt80.0%−8.9average punt
- Q4 5:58ILL 4th & 6 at ILL 48, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.6%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt10.4%−1.2average punt
- Q4 1:12ILL 4th & 12 at ILL 23, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.3%22% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.0%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ILL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 9:36ILL Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call12.8%97% to makeGo for two12.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:34PSU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.5%97% to makeGo for two86.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:38PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.8%97% to makeGo for two82.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:55PSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call96.3%−0.497% to makeGo for two96.7%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartILLDrive 1TD11 plays · 75 yds · 5:228% → 10%
Q1 13:47
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+13
91.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 13 yds to the ILL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+18
91.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 18 yds to the PSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
91.4%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Kaden Feagin for 6 yds to the PSU 33Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+5
91.2%
Kaden Feagin run for 5 yds to the PSU 28 for a 1ST down Penn State Penalty, Personal Foul (Yards) to the PSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+6
90.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 6 yds to the PSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
89.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Carson Goda for 4 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 2TD8 plays · 75 yds · 4:0090% → 90%
ILLDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 35 yds · 1:5811% → 11%
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
89.4%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 17 yds to the ILL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
89.0%
(05:01) ALTMYER, Luke pass deep to the right incomplete intended for BRYANT, Pat thrown to the PSU19, clock 04:58. PENALTY PSU Offsides on VANOVER, Amin declined PSU Pass Interference on HARRIS, AJ enforced 15 yards to the PSU43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4PUNT7 plays · 38 yds · 3:3089% → 88%
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
88.6%
Drew Allar pass complete to Liam Clifford for 5 yds to the PSU 21Similar
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
88.3%
Drew Allar sacked by Pat Farrell and Seth Coleman for a loss of 1 yard to the PSU 32Similar
Q1 0:59
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+7
88.0%
Drew Allar pass complete to Julian Fleming for 7 yds to the PSU 39Similar
Q1 0:19
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+3
88.0%
Drew Allar pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 3 yds to the PSU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5PUNT11 plays · 33 yds · 3:5413% → 14%
Q2 14:15
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+12
87.0%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 12 yds to the ILL 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 13
OWN 20
-3
86.6%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Kobe King for a loss of 3 yards to the ILL 17Similar
Q2 12:34
3RD & 21
OWN 12
+30
86.7%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Josh McCray for 30 yds to the ILL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+1
85.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Ca'Lil Valentine for 1 yd to the ILL 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6MISSED FG13 plays · 69 yds · 5:5086% → 85%
ILLDrive 7MISSED FG18 plays · 50 yds · 4:1018% → 21%
Q2 2:00
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+2
77.2%
Luke Altmyer run for 2 yds to the PSU 27 for a 1ST down Penn State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Tony Rojas) to the PSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-9
74.8%
Luke Altmyer run for a loss of 9 yards to the PSU 11 Luke Altmyer fumbled, recovered by ILL Kaden Feagin K. Feagin return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q2 0:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
-8
76.9%
Illinois Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Luke Altmyer) to the PSU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8Uncategorized4 plays · 11 yds · 0:1682% → 82%
PSUDrive 9TD14 plays · 74 yds · 6:1481% → 88%
Q3 12:44
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+9
80.1%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 9 yds to the ILL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+10
80.2%
(10:45) ALLAR, Drew pass short to the right incomplete intended for REYNOLDS, Luke thrown to the ILL30; QB hurried by FARRELL, Pat, clock 10:41. PENALTY ILL Holding on JACAS, Gabe enforced 10 yards from the ILL35 to the ILL25 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+12
80.8%
Drew Allar pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 12 yds to the ILL 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
88.1%
Nicholas Singleton run for 4 yds for a TD (Sander Sahaydak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10PUNT6 plays · -8 yds · 1:5415% → 14%
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
85.4%
(08:36) ALTMYER, Luke pass to the right complete for 9 yards to FRANKLIN, Zakhari caught at the ILL33 and advanced to the ILL34 (WHEATLEY, Zakee;HARRIS, AJ), clock 08:30. PENALTY Before the snap, ILL Illegal Shift on DIXON, Collin enforced 5 yards from the ILL25 to the ILL20. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
85.4%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Tanner Arkin for no gain to the ILL 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11DOWNS9 plays · 43 yds · 5:2589% → 89%
Q3 1:12
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+2
88.6%
Drew Allar pass complete to Julian Fleming for 2 yds to the ILL 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12PUNT7 plays · 5 yds · 3:4515% → 12%
Q3 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+9
85.3%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Tanner Arkin for 9 yds to the ILL 24Similar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-7
84.6%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Zane Durant for a loss of 7 yards to the ILL 19Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 17
OWN 19
+8
86.6%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Josh McCray for 8 yds to the ILL 27Similar
Q4 12:56
3RD & 9
OWN 27
-7
86.9%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Tony Rojas and Jaylen Reed for a loss of 7 yards to the ILL 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13MISSED FG7 plays · 45 yds · 3:1390% → 90%
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
90.4%
ALLAR, Drew pass deep to the left incomplete intended for EVANS, Omari thrown to the ILL13, clock 11:45. PENALTY ILL Pass Interference on BROOKS, Terrance enforced 15 yards to the ILL42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14INT8 plays · 25 yds · 2:5314% → 13%
Q4 8:05
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+16
84.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 16 yds to the ILL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:04
4TH & 6
OWN 48
+5
87.6%
(06:04) ALTMYER, Luke pass deep to the right incomplete intended for FRANKLIN, Zakhari broken up by KIMBER, Jalen at the PSU32, clock 06:00. PENALTY PSU Offsides on CARTER, Abdul enforced 5 yards from the ILL48 to the PSU47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:58
4TH & 6
OWN 48
-61
87.5%
Luke Altmyer pass intercepted A.J. Harris return for 51 yds Penn State Penalty, Illegal Block (Zion Tracy) to the ILL 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15TD10 plays · 41 yds · 3:5193% → 99%
ILLDrive 16FUMBLE12 plays · 17 yds · 1:232% → 2%
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
97.7%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Jaylen Reed and Smith Vilbert for a loss of 8 yards to the ILL 17Similar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+6
97.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Kaden Feagin for 6 yds to the ILL 23Similar
Q4 1:12
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+18
98.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 18 yds to the ILL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+21
98.7%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 21 yds to the PSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
98.2%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Abdul Carter and Alec Bryant for a loss of 5 yards to the PSU 43Similar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 15
OPP 43
-10
98.2%
(00:40) ALTMYER, Luke pass short to the right complete for 7 yards to FEAGIN, Kaden caught at the PSU40 and advanced to the PSU36 (TRACY, Zion), clock 00:34. PENALTY ILL Holding on DAVIS, J.C. enforced 10 yards from the PSU43 to the ILL47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 25
OWN 47
-5
98.3%
Luke Altmyer sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the ILL 33 Luke Altmyer fumbled, recovered by PSU Smith Vilbert , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17END OF GAME1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
98.8%
(00:21) [SG] Kneel down by ALLAR, Drew at ILL35 (team loss of 2), clock 00:16.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:38
Nicholas Singleton run for 4 yds for a TD (Sander Sahaydak KICK)
+7.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 5:46
Drew Allar pass complete to Luke Reynolds for 8 yds to the ILL 33
+5.3
KEY PLAY · Q4 8:51
Luke Altmyer run for 5 yds to the ILL 28
-4