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ILL

Illinois 7 at Penn State 21

PSU
2024 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2024 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadILL aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreILL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:58 · Hugh Robertson punt for 49 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 43Pregame prior+32.5Home team on offense−0.7Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:38: Drew Allar pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 15 yds to the PSU 42 for a 1ST down — PSU win probability +3.2 pts (now 82%) (top driver: Offense has -1 timeouts left).
  2. TD · Q3 8:38: Nicholas Singleton run for 4 yds for a TD (Sander Sahaydak KICK) — PSU win probability +7.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 1:06: Josh McCray run for no gain to the ILL 15 — ILL win probability +3.5 pts (now 15%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 8:51: Luke Altmyer run for 5 yds to the ILL 28 — ILL win probability +4.0 pts (now 14%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 5:46: Drew Allar pass complete to Luke Reynolds for 8 yds to the ILL 33 — PSU win probability +5.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4ILL made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 3:34ILL 4th & 7 at PSU 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    14.4%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:56PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.4%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:58ILL 4th & 9 at ILL 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:00PSU 4th & 6 at ILL 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.5%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.5%
    70% to make
    Punt
    77.6%−2.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:44ILL 4th & 27 at PSU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−2.0
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.0%
    62% to make
    Punt
    20.2%−3.9
    average punt
  6. Q3 6:42ILL 4th & 18 at ILL 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−2.6
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.1%
    average punt
  7. Q3 1:12PSU 4th & 3 at ILL 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    86.8%−0.7
    80% to make
    Punt
    80.3%−7.2
    average punt
  8. Q4 12:21ILL 4th & 16 at ILL 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%−2.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%
    average punt
  9. Q4 8:57PSU 4th & 4 at ILL 23, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.5%−0.4
    70% to make
    Punt
    80.0%−8.9
    average punt
  10. Q4 5:58ILL 4th & 6 at ILL 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.4%−1.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:12ILL 4th & 12 at ILL 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.3%
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.0%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ILL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:36ILL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:34PSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:38PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 1:55PSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:228% → 10%
Q1 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
92.2%
Kaden Feagin run for a loss of 1 yard to the ILL 24Similar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
92.1%
Kaden Feagin run for 5 yds to the ILL 29Similar
Q1 13:47
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+13
91.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 13 yds to the ILL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
91.7%
Kaden Feagin run for 1 yd to the ILL 43Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+18
91.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 18 yds to the PSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
91.4%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Kaden Feagin for 6 yds to the PSU 33Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+5
91.2%
Kaden Feagin run for 5 yds to the PSU 28 for a 1ST down Penn State Penalty, Personal Foul (Yards) to the PSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
91.0%
Kaden Feagin run for 4 yds to the PSU 10Similar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 6
OPP 10
0
90.8%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:23
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+6
90.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 6 yds to the PSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
89.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Carson Goda for 4 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 2TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 4:0090% → 90%
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
90.1%
Drew Allar pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 20 yds to the PSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
90.0%
Drew Allar run for 11 yds to the ILL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+14
89.8%
Nicholas Singleton run for 14 yds to the ILL 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
89.6%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+6
89.6%
Nicholas Singleton run for 6 yds to the ILL 24Similar
Q1 6:59
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+16
89.2%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 16 yds to the ILL 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
89.0%
Nicholas Singleton run for 5 yds to the ILL 3Similar
Q1 5:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
90.0%
Tyler Warren run for 3 yds for a TD (Sander Sahaydak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 35 yds · 1:5811% → 11%
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
89.4%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 17 yds to the ILL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
89.0%
(05:01) ALTMYER, Luke pass deep to the right incomplete intended for BRYANT, Pat thrown to the PSU19, clock 04:58. PENALTY PSU Offsides on VANOVER, Amin declined PSU Pass Interference on HARRIS, AJ enforced 15 yards to the PSU43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
88.8%
Aidan Laughery run for no gain to the PSU 43Similar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
88.6%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:17
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+3
88.7%
Luke Altmyer run for 3 yds to the PSU 40Similar
Q1 3:34
4TH & 7
OPP 40
0
88.6%
Hugh Robertson punt for 36 yds, downed at the PSU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 38 yds · 3:3089% → 88%
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+12
88.7%
Kaytron Allen run for 12 yds to the PSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
88.6%
Drew Allar pass complete to Liam Clifford for 5 yds to the PSU 21Similar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+12
88.4%
Kaytron Allen run for 12 yds to the PSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
88.3%
Drew Allar sacked by Pat Farrell and Seth Coleman for a loss of 1 yard to the PSU 32Similar
Q1 0:59
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+7
88.0%
Drew Allar pass complete to Julian Fleming for 7 yds to the PSU 39Similar
Q1 0:19
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+3
88.0%
Drew Allar pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 3 yds to the PSU 42Similar
Q2 14:56
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
87.6%
Riley Thompson punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5PUNT
11 plays · 33 yds · 3:5413% → 14%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
87.2%
Josh McCray run for 1 yd to the ILL 11Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+12
87.0%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 12 yds to the ILL 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-3
86.7%
Josh McCray run for a loss of 3 yards to the ILL 20Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 13
OWN 20
-3
86.6%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Kobe King for a loss of 3 yards to the ILL 17Similar
Q2 12:34
3RD & 16
OWN 17
-5
86.5%
Illinois Penalty, False Start (Kaden Feagin) to the ILL 12Similar
Q2 12:34
3RD & 21
OWN 12
+30
86.7%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Josh McCray for 30 yds to the ILL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
85.3%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+1
85.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Ca'Lil Valentine for 1 yd to the ILL 43Similar
Q2 11:01
3RD & 9
OWN 43
0
85.3%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:58
4TH & 9
OWN 43
0
85.9%
Hugh Robertson punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6MISSED FG
13 plays · 69 yds · 5:5086% → 85%
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+8
86.2%
Nicholas Singleton run for 8 yds to the PSU 16Similar
Q2 10:16
2ND & 2
OWN 16
+4
86.1%
Nicholas Singleton run for 4 yds to the PSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
86.0%
Beau Pribula run for 7 yds to the PSU 27Similar
Q2 8:56
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+5
85.9%
Nicholas Singleton run for 5 yds to the PSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
85.6%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 15 yds to the PSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
86.0%
Kaytron Allen run for 14 yds to the ILL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
86.1%
Kaytron Allen run for 5 yds to the ILL 34Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+3
86.3%
Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the ILL 31Similar
Q2 6:09
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+4
85.7%
Drew Allar pass complete to Liam Clifford for 4 yds to the ILL 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
85.9%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 4 yds to the ILL 23Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 6
OPP 23
0
85.8%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:01
3RD & 6
OPP 23
0
85.2%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:00
4TH & 6
OPP 23
+40
84.5%
Sander Sahaydak 40 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 7MISSED FG
18 plays · 50 yds · 4:1018% → 21%
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+34
81.8%
Kaden Feagin run for 34 yds to the PSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
79.6%
Kaden Feagin run for a loss of 2 yards to the PSU 45Similar
Q2 3:32
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+13
79.7%
Luke Altmyer run for 13 yds to the PSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
77.9%
Kaden Feagin run for 1 yd to the PSU 31Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+2
77.4%
Kaden Feagin run for 2 yds to the PSU 29Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+2
77.2%
Luke Altmyer run for 2 yds to the PSU 27 for a 1ST down Penn State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Tony Rojas) to the PSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
75.9%
Kaden Feagin run for 9 yds to the PSU 4Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 1
OPP 4
+2
75.4%
Luke Altmyer run for 2 yds to the PSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-9
74.8%
Luke Altmyer run for a loss of 9 yards to the PSU 11 Luke Altmyer fumbled, recovered by ILL Kaden Feagin K. Feagin return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q2 1:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
-3
75.2%
Luke Altmyer run for a loss of 3 yards to the PSU 14Similar
Q2 1:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 22
-5
79.4%
Illinois Penalty, False Start (Alec Bryant) to the PSU 27Similar
Q2 0:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
-8
76.9%
Illinois Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Luke Altmyer) to the PSU 22Similar
Q2 0:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 27
+45
78.9%
David Olano 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8Uncategorized
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:1682% → 82%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
82.2%
Drew Allar pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 15 yds to the PSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
83.3%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
82.7%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 10
OWN 42
-4
81.8%
Drew Allar sacked by Gabe Jacas for a loss of 4 yards to the PSU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9TD
14 plays · 74 yds · 6:1481% → 88%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
80.7%
Nicholas Singleton run for 9 yds to the PSU 35Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+9
81.5%
Drew Allar run for 9 yds to the PSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
81.6%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:29
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+3
80.9%
Nicholas Singleton run for 3 yds to the PSU 47Similar
Q3 12:44
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+9
80.1%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 9 yds to the ILL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
81.0%
Kaytron Allen run for 7 yds to the ILL 37Similar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 3
OPP 37
-5
80.9%
Penn State Penalty, False Start (Drew Shelton) to the ILL 42Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+7
80.7%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 7 yds to the ILL 35Similar
Q3 10:45
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+10
80.2%
(10:45) ALLAR, Drew pass short to the right incomplete intended for REYNOLDS, Luke thrown to the ILL30; QB hurried by FARRELL, Pat, clock 10:41. PENALTY ILL Holding on JACAS, Gabe enforced 10 yards from the ILL35 to the ILL25 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
81.0%
Nicholas Singleton run for 6 yds to the ILL 19Similar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+12
80.8%
Drew Allar pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 12 yds to the ILL 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
80.7%
Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the ILL 5Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
80.4%
Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the ILL 4Similar
Q3 8:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
88.1%
Nicholas Singleton run for 4 yds for a TD (Sander Sahaydak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 1:5415% → 14%
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
85.4%
(08:36) ALTMYER, Luke pass to the right complete for 9 yards to FRANKLIN, Zakhari caught at the ILL33 and advanced to the ILL34 (WHEATLEY, Zakee;HARRIS, AJ), clock 08:30. PENALTY Before the snap, ILL Illegal Shift on DIXON, Collin enforced 5 yards from the ILL25 to the ILL20. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:13
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+2
85.4%
Kaden Feagin run for 2 yds to the ILL 22Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
85.4%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Tanner Arkin for no gain to the ILL 22Similar
Q3 6:48
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
85.9%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:45
4TH & 13
OWN 22
-5
86.3%
Illinois Penalty, False Start (Alec Bryant) to the ILL 17Similar
Q3 6:42
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
86.3%
Hugh Robertson punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11DOWNS
9 plays · 43 yds · 5:2589% → 89%
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
88.6%
Kaytron Allen run for 6 yds to the PSU 48Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+13
88.7%
Kaytron Allen run for 13 yds to the ILL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
88.8%
Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the ILL 37Similar
Q3 4:36
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+3
88.5%
Beau Pribula run for 3 yds to the ILL 34Similar
Q3 3:52
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+10
88.0%
Tyler Warren run for 10 yds to the ILL 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
88.6%
Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the ILL 22Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+3
89.3%
Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the ILL 19Similar
Q3 1:55
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+2
88.5%
Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the ILL 17Similar
Q3 1:12
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+2
88.6%
Drew Allar pass complete to Julian Fleming for 2 yds to the ILL 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 3:4515% → 12%
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
85.0%
Josh McCray run for no gain to the ILL 15Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+9
85.3%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Tanner Arkin for 9 yds to the ILL 24Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+2
84.8%
Luke Altmyer run for 2 yds to the ILL 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-7
84.6%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Zane Durant for a loss of 7 yards to the ILL 19Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 17
OWN 19
+8
86.6%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Josh McCray for 8 yds to the ILL 27Similar
Q4 12:56
3RD & 9
OWN 27
-7
86.9%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Tony Rojas and Jaylen Reed for a loss of 7 yards to the ILL 20Similar
Q4 12:21
4TH & 16
OWN 20
0
87.7%
Hugh Robertson punt for 48 yds, downed at the PSU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13MISSED FG
7 plays · 45 yds · 3:1390% → 90%
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
89.6%
Nicholas Singleton run for 11 yds to the PSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
90.4%
ALLAR, Drew pass deep to the left incomplete intended for EVANS, Omari thrown to the ILL13, clock 11:45. PENALTY ILL Pass Interference on BROOKS, Terrance enforced 15 yards to the ILL42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+13
90.8%
Nicholas Singleton run for 13 yds to the ILL 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
91.1%
Nicholas Singleton run for no gain to the ILL 29Similar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+3
91.2%
Nicholas Singleton run for 3 yds to the ILL 26Similar
Q4 9:39
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+3
90.8%
Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the ILL 23Similar
Q4 8:57
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+40
89.7%
Sander Sahaydak 40 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14INT
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:5314% → 13%
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
85.7%
Luke Altmyer run for 5 yds to the ILL 28Similar
Q4 8:05
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+16
84.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 16 yds to the ILL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
85.0%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:16
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+6
85.7%
Kaden Feagin run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:43
3RD & 4
50
-2
84.6%
Kaden Feagin run for a loss of 2 yards to the ILL 48Similar
Q4 6:04
4TH & 6
OWN 48
+5
87.6%
(06:04) ALTMYER, Luke pass deep to the right incomplete intended for FRANKLIN, Zakhari broken up by KIMBER, Jalen at the PSU32, clock 06:00. PENALTY PSU Offsides on CARTER, Abdul enforced 5 yards from the ILL48 to the PSU47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:00
4TH & 1
OPP 47
-5
85.8%
Illinois Penalty, False Start (Alec Bryant) to the ILL 48Similar
Q4 5:58
4TH & 6
OWN 48
-61
87.5%
Luke Altmyer pass intercepted A.J. Harris return for 51 yds Penn State Penalty, Illegal Block (Zion Tracy) to the ILL 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15TD
10 plays · 41 yds · 3:5193% → 99%
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
92.9%
Drew Allar pass complete to Luke Reynolds for 8 yds to the ILL 33Similar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 2
OPP 33
-1
93.0%
Kaytron Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the ILL 34Similar
Q4 4:32
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+8
92.5%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 8 yds to the ILL 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
94.4%
Beau Pribula run for 7 yds to the ILL 19Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+4
94.8%
Kaytron Allen run for 4 yds to the ILL 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
95.2%
Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the ILL 13Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+8
96.1%
Kaytron Allen run for 8 yds to the ILL 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
98.7%
Kaytron Allen run for 5 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 16FUMBLE
12 plays · 17 yds · 1:232% → 2%
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
97.7%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Jaylen Reed and Smith Vilbert for a loss of 8 yards to the ILL 17Similar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+6
97.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Kaden Feagin for 6 yds to the ILL 23Similar
Q4 1:18
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
97.8%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:12
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+18
98.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 18 yds to the ILL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+21
98.7%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 21 yds to the PSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
98.2%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Abdul Carter and Alec Bryant for a loss of 5 yards to the PSU 43Similar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 15
OPP 43
0
98.1%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 15
OPP 43
-10
98.2%
(00:40) ALTMYER, Luke pass short to the right complete for 7 yards to FEAGIN, Kaden caught at the PSU40 and advanced to the PSU36 (TRACY, Zion), clock 00:34. PENALTY ILL Holding on DAVIS, J.C. enforced 10 yards from the PSU43 to the ILL47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 25
OWN 47
-5
98.3%
Luke Altmyer sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the ILL 33 Luke Altmyer fumbled, recovered by PSU Smith Vilbert , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
98.8%
(00:21) [SG] Kneel down by ALLAR, Drew at ILL35 (team loss of 2), clock 00:16.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:38
Nicholas Singleton run for 4 yds for a TD (Sander Sahaydak KICK)
+7.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 5:46
Drew Allar pass complete to Luke Reynolds for 8 yds to the ILL 33
+5.3
KEY PLAY · Q4 8:51
Luke Altmyer run for 5 yds to the ILL 28
-4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com