2024 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadKENT aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreKENT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:36 · Josh Smith punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jake Spencer at the PSU 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 2:38: Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 16 yds for a TD (Sander Sahaydak KICK) — PSU win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:49: Tyler Warren pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 17 yds for a TD (Sander Sahaydak KICK) — PSU win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:29: Drew Allar pass complete to Liam Clifford for 14 yds for a TD (Sander Sahaydak KICK) — PSU win probability +1.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:15: Drew Allar run for 5 yds for a TD (Sander Sahaydak KICK) — PSU win probability +0.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2KENT made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
- Q1 13:33KENT 4th & 12 at KENT 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.223% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q1 7:25KENT 4th & 8 at PSU 46, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it1.0%−<0.134% to convertField goal0.9%−0.123% to makePuntTheir call1.0%average punt
- Q2 13:38KENT 4th & 5 at PSU 41, down 7Close callPunted · 1.6% before the snapGo for it1.6%42% to convertField goal1.5%−0.132% to makePuntTheir call1.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 10:43PSU 4th & 9 at PSU 15, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.1% before the snapGo for it98.0%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.1%average punt
- Q2 8:33KENT 4th & 8 at KENT 49, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snapGo for it2.0%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.1%average punt
- Q2 3:08KENT 4th & 9 at KENT 39, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.8%−<0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.9%average punt
- Q2 1:11KENT 4th & 5 at KENT 30, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.8%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q3 9:50KENT 4th & 4 at KENT 46, down 35Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.2%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 3:59KENT 4th & 8 at KENT 32, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 1:30PSU 4th & 19 at PSU 39, up 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.211% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
- Q4 13:28KENT 4th & 12 at KENT 41, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 7:36KENT 4th & 7 at KENT 38, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 2:38PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.9%97% to makeGo for two98.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:49PSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.4%97% to makeGo for two98.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:29PSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:15PSU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:13PSU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:55PSU Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:21PSU Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:25PSU Touchdown, up 55 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%−<0.197% to makeGo for two100.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKENTDrive 1PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 1:250% → 0%
Q1 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-2
99.7%
Devin Kargman sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the KENT 33 Devin Kargman fumbled, recovered by KENT , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 2INT10 plays · 51 yds · 4:06100% → 99%
Q1 13:01
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+4
99.6%
Drew Allar pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 4 yds to the PSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
99.6%
Drew Allar pass complete to Omari Evans for 4 yds to the KENT 45Similar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+9
99.5%
Drew Allar pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 9 yds to the KENT 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 1
OPP 25
-13
99.5%
Beau Pribula pass intercepted Kameron Olds return for 13 yds to the KENT 41Similar
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
99.4%
(09:21) QB Keeper SHERROD, JD rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the KENT43 (DELUCA, Dominic), clock 09:14. PENALTY PSU Offsides enforced 5 yards from the KENT41 to the KENT46 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 13 yds · 1:331% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4TD10 plays · 89 yds · 4:4199% → 99%
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+10
99.3%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 10 yds to the PSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+21
99.3%
Drew Allar pass complete to Julian Fleming for 21 yds to the KENT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:34
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+12
99.2%
Drew Allar pass complete to Liam Clifford for 12 yds to the KENT 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
99.2%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 16 yds for a TD (Sander Sahaydak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 5PUNT8 plays · 34 yds · 3:551% → 1%
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.1%
(02:33) QB Keeper SHERROD, JD rush up the middle for no gain to the KENT25 (ROJAS, Tony;FORD JR., Alonzo), clock 02:32. PENALTY PSU Face mask on ELSDON, Tyler enforced 15 yards from the KENT25 to the KENT40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
98.9%
JD Sherrod pass complete to Luke Floriea for 5 yds to the PSU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 12 yds · 2:4599% → 99%
KENTDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 2:042% → 2%
Q2 9:05
3RD & 6
OPP 49
-2
98.3%
JD Sherrod sacked by Abdul Carter for a loss of 2 yards to the KENT 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8TD7 plays · 90 yds · 2:3598% → 99%
Q2 7:10
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+14
98.3%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 14 yds to the PSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+38
98.3%
Drew Allar pass complete to Omari Evans for 38 yds to the KENT 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:49
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
98.7%
Tyler Warren pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 17 yds for a TD (Sander Sahaydak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 9PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 2:391% → 2%
PSUDrive 10TD7 plays · 79 yds · 1:3099% → 99%
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+38
98.5%
Drew Allar pass complete to Liam Clifford for 38 yds to the KENT 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
98.7%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 5 yds to the KENT 23Similar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
99.4%
Drew Allar pass complete to Liam Clifford for 14 yds for a TD (Sander Sahaydak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 0:181% → 1%
Q2 1:11
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+10
99.2%
Josh Smith punt for 55 yds , Kaden Saunders returns for 10 yds to the PSU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12TD6 plays · 75 yds · 0:42100% → 100%
KENTDrive 13END OF HALF1 play · -5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.7%
(00:15) [SG] Kneel down by ULATOWSKI, Tommy at KENT20 (team loss of 5), clock 00:04.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14TD4 plays · 75 yds · 1:45100% → 100%
Q3 13:13
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+59
99.9%
Drew Allar pass complete to Omari Evans for 59 yds for a TD (Sander Sahaydak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 15PUNT7 plays · 21 yds · 3:230% → 0%
Q3 12:28
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
99.9%
(12:28) HARRIS, Ayden rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the KENT30 (ELSDON, Tyler;J-THOMAS, Dvon), clock 12:25. PENALTY PSU Offsides on FORD JR., Alonzo enforced 5 yards from the KENT26 to the KENT31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16TD9 plays · 91 yds · 4:50100% → 100%
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
99.9%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Khalil Dinkins for 13 yds for a TD (Sander Sahaydak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:540% → 0%
Q3 3:59
4TH & 8
OWN 32
+32
99.9%
Josh Smith punt for 32 yds , Jake Spencer returns for no gain to the PSU 38 , returns for no gain to the PSU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18PUNT10 plays · 1 yds · 2:20100% → 100%
Q3 3:10
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+5
99.9%
Kent State Penalty, Offsides (Oliver Billotte) to the PSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
99.9%
(03:10) WALLACE, Cam rush to the left for a gain of 17 yards to the KENT35 (BAKA, Josh), clock 03:03. PENALTY PSU Holding on WILLIAMS, J'ven enforced 10 yards from the PSU48 to the PSU38 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:06
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+8
99.9%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Luke Reynolds for 8 yds to the KENT 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 19PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 2:550% → 0%
Q4 14:58
3RD & 5
OWN 33
0
99.9%
(14:58) ULATOWSKI, Tommy pass up the middle incomplete intended for KELLEY, Jared thrown to the KENT44, clock 14:55. PENALTY PSU Offsides declined PSU Holding on MITCHELL, Jon enforced 10 yards from the KENT33 to the KENT43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:28
4TH & 12
OWN 41
+23
99.9%
Josh Smith punt for 49 yds , Kaden Saunders returns for 23 yds to the PSU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20TD8 plays · 67 yds · 3:53100% → 100%
Q4 12:03
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+19
99.9%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Luke Reynolds for 19 yds to the KENT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
99.9%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Tyseer Denmark for 13 yds to the KENT 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+15
99.9%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Omari Evans for 15 yds to the KENT 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:380% → 0%
Q4 7:36
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
100.0%
Josh Smith punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jake Spencer at the PSU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22TD15 plays · 83 yds · 6:09100% → 100%
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
100.0%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Anthony Ivey for 15 yds to the PSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
100.0%
(03:48) PRIBULA, Beau pass to the left incomplete intended for DENMARK, Tyseer thrown to the KENT25, clock 03:43. PENALTY KENT Targeting on BROWN, Nylan enforced 15 yards from the KENT40 to the KENT25 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:29
Drew Allar pass complete to Liam Clifford for 14 yds for a TD (Sander Sahaydak KICK)
+1
TD · Q2 5:49
Tyler Warren pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 17 yds for a TD (Sander Sahaydak KICK)
+0.4
TD · Q2 0:15
Drew Allar run for 5 yds for a TD (Sander Sahaydak KICK)
+0.4